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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 8th
    8:30 PM EST : Carolina ( -3 ) at Denver ( 3 ) —- T: 42.5

    Sunday, September 11th
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 6 ) at Philadelphia ( -6 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Tennessee ( 3.5 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 3 ) at Atlanta ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -2 ) at NY Jets ( 2 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 1 ) at New Orleans ( -1 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Diego ( 7 ) at Kansas City ( -7 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Baltimore ( -3 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 10.5 ) at Seattle ( -10.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 3.5 ) at Dallas ( -3.5 ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( 5 ) at Indianapolis ( -5 ) —- T: 49
    8:30 PM EST : New England ( 6 ) at Arizona ( -6 ) —- T: 47.5

    Monday, September 12th
    7:10 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -3 ) at Washington ( 3 ) —- T: 50
    10:20 PM EST : Los Angeles ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • Richebee

    All-In on Rashad Jennings. Join me or go BUSTO!!!

  • jr1886

    • 2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @Razzle11 said...

    @thedkexperience said…

    So you get to pick a rookie QB’s name and claim it as the baseline while somebody else can’t provide you with another name? Find that to be pretty interesting.

    Even then he is still wrong about J. Winston. Had Winston been at $5K week1, he would have been an excellent play, especially on Fanduel. Winston scored 16 points week 1 and that would have been 3X value (great for cash game, and good enough in Tournament). Lost in the shuffle here, these guys focus mosly on raw points rather than the value and also the opportunity to use that salary not spent on QB to get the studs.

  • NCRick

    There has never been a chalkier QB than Dak Prescott for $5000. Fuller for $3700 is a steal too.

  • pburghpens22

    @specvspeed03 said...

    I also remember many times last year where I looked at Antonio Brown matchup and said I am not paying that 9k pricetag, only to see AB84 go off and question why I didnt take advantage of his lower ownership. We should be exploiting Brown in these matchups not differing from it especially in GPPs

    Yea just look what he did to Chris Harris last year

  • Hoss_Man

    Last year Brown had his best games at home, or on the road against Cleveland. On the road vs an improved Redskin D. I may wait for a better pt/$ opportunity. D’Angelo Williams on the other hand… I’ll have him in plenty of lineups.

  • Zieg30

    @bignish said...

    I“ll be ecstatic if Dak has 3 turnovers because that means he will have to throw the entire game playing catchup and will rack up garbage time points.

    You have to remember that Dallas has literally NO ONE ELSE THEY CAN BENCH HIM FOR. Even if Dak throws 5 straight interceptions on his first 5 drives or something insane, Garrett still won’t bench him. He is 100% locked in for the game at all costs for the Cowboys.

    I think the long off-season has made you forget how bad QB scores can be even when they play a full game.

    I’m not sure we had any big winners in GPPs last season playing a QB who threw 5 picks, and if we did, it was quite a fluke.

    And lest we all forget, if Dak throws 5 picks, the Giants will likely turn them into 3 FGs and 2 three and outs, so there won’t be any garbage time for anyone.

  • specvspeed03

    @Hoss_Man said...

    Last year Brown had his best games at home, or on the road against Cleveland. On the road vs an improved Redskin D. I may wait for a better pt/$ opportunity. D’Angelo Williams on the other hand… I’ll have him in plenty of lineups.

    Im hoping everyone else thinks like you as well. While I do agree, getting those huge games from Brown at 30% ownership isnt going to win me a GPP. Brown is one of those matchup-proof guys because of his unique skill set and ability to get open or make plays after the catch. Although im not sure he is going to be low owned in week 1 as most people dont look at the Redskins as a tough matchup for any reciever (yet).

  • awilson45

    Brown is in a contract year (the Steelers have apparently promised Brown an extension at the end of the season). Assuming Ben, AB, and the o-line are healthy that stack is ALWAYS in play. Brown gets 7 catches, 125 yds, and a TD in week 1.

    Note: I am a biased Steelers fan, but I actually think it’s to my advantage in these situations because I really don’t think people understand how good and consistent Brown is. Then again he’s probably gonna be the highest owned WR in week 1 on FD, so maybe people do haha.

  • ataggart

    If Charles is out and Ware is in play then on FD you can pretty easily play all three of Julio, Antonio Brown, and ODB if you want. Also think Hopkins against a decimated Bears secondary is as good a play as any of those three too. Not sure how I will end up doing it, might be better two take two of them then pay down at one WR spot.

    Can’t wait for everyone to have virtually the same cash lineup and all the $ comes down your kicker. Everyone is going to have have Dak, Ware, 2 (or even 3) of those WR’s, plus Seattle D.

  • awilson45

    @ataggart said...

    If Charles is out and Ware is in play then on FD you can pretty easily play all three of Julio, Antonio Brown, and ODB if you want. Also think Hopkins against a decimated Bears secondary is as good a play as any of those three too. Not sure how I will end up doing it, might be better two take two of them then pay down at one WR spot.

    Can’t wait for everyone to have virtually the same cash lineup and all the $ comes down your kicker. Everyone is going to have have Dak, Ware, 2 (or even 3) of those WR’s, plus Seattle D.

    I don’t play cash, but if that’s how you think the majority will go then wouldn’t there be merit in paying up at QB for Brees or Big Ben for example? I get that he’s min priced, but it’s not unreasonable to think that Dak could blow up or just not be asked to do that much.

  • TheWhiteMamba

    I like the idea of pairing Carr w/ Crabtree, as I expect the Carr/Cooper combo to be fairly popular.

    I also really like the Tyrod/Watkins stack for week 1, as well as the Wilson/Lockett stack.

    I’ll be using Elliot and Fleener in every single lineup.

    Other affordable players I’m looking at on DK include: Charles Sims, Spencer Ware, Ryan Mathews, Chris Ivory, Theo Riddick, DeAndre Washington, James White, Tyler Lockett, Travis Benjamin, Marvin Jones, Michael Thomas and Mike Wallace.

    Surprisingly, I’m not really liking many of the top receivers on DKs Sunday slate. Julio is really the only one I’m high on, and maybe Keenan Allen, although I prefer Watkins and Cooper for a little less $.

    I’m interested to hear people’s thoughts on some of these players I’ve mentioned.

  • bignish

    @awilson45 said...

    I don’t play cash, but if that’s how you think the majority will go then wouldn’t there be merit in paying up at QB for Brees or Big Ben for example? I get that he’s min priced, but it’s not unreasonable to think that Dak could blow up or just not be asked to do that much.

    In cash, you shouldn’t take gambles like that since if Dak matches what Brees puts up, you’re cooked. Cash games are all about making sure all your players hit their value thresholds while your H2H opponents takes the unneccessary risks and bury themselves.

    A lot would have to go wrong for Dak not to get at least 12-15 points next Sunday, especially vs. the Giants secondary. I know Big Blue picked up Janoris Jenkins from the Rams this past offseason but I’m personally not a fan of his because I think he gambles too much in single coverage leading to crucial mistakes.

  • Schizlor

    I agree. Bashaud Breeland is coming into his own and I think he has a better year than Norman this year as the Skins 2nd CB. With M Bryant and TE Green out for PIT they don’t really have anyone behind Brown to consistently throw to, I think the Skins get creative with Breeland and D Hall at safety to help Norman out with Brown. He’ll get his as he always does, but especially on FD I don’t see him getting 28+ on the road to justify the salary opening week. D Williams is the much stronger play IMO.

  • Dfspacman

    Anyone considering Randall Cobb, he is going to be low owned. Hurns as well, since majority of the attention is on Robinson.

  • icerange522

    interesting how people worried about percent ownership by a qb . there are 8 other positions in your lineups to fill so even if u put 15-20 percent owned qb in ur gpp u can still differentiate urself from others by having two or three contrarian picks in other positions . so to me in gpp i like to balance between value plays and contrarian/upside plays .

  • bolu

    6 extra fantasy points from two point conversions is very realistic for the Roethlisberger/Brown stack. A team rarely scores more than one two point conversion in a game. It only happened twice last season, but Mike Tomlin likes going for two in spots where other coaches kick extra points, especially when Big Ben is playing. Steelers have a strong tendency to throw the ball on two point conversions (0 runs and 15 passes last two regular seasons, although one pass came after a bad extra point snap). Their run pass strategy on normal plays from the 2 yard line is a lot closer to the rest of the league. Teams have special two point plays, and Pittsburgh has done a lot of throwing in those situations.

    If you asked me which team is most likely to go for two this week if they go up 6-0, it’s Pittsburgh by far. Honestly I still put the chances under 50% in that example, but Tomlin might decide to go for two every time except certain very obvious time and score situations. This adds potential upside, and the weather forecast is good in a favorable matchup. Tomlin’s mindset at the start of the game will play a big part in his two point decisions. Heavy rain or high winds will affect his mindset.

  • sal

    With you, but I also like RG3 and Chris Ivory so you may or may not be in good company ;)

  • sal

    @bolu said...

    6 extra fantasy points from two point conversions is very realistic for the Roethlisberger/Brown stack. A team rarely scores more than one two point conversion in a game. It only happened twice last season, but Mike Tomlin likes going for two in spots where other coaches kick extra points, especially when Big Ben is playing. Steelers have a strong tendency to throw the ball on two point conversions (0 runs and 15 passes last two regular seasons, although one pass came after a bad extra point snap). Their run pass strategy on normal plays from the 2 yard line is a lot closer to the rest of the league. Teams have special two point plays, and Pittsburgh has done a lot of throwing in those situations.

    If you asked me which team is most likely to go for two this week if they go up 6-0, it’s Pittsburgh by far. Honestly I still put the chances under 50% in that example, but Tomlin might decide to go for two every time except certain very obvious time and score situations. This adds potential upside, and the weather forecast is good in a favorable matchup. Tomlin’s mindset at the start of the game will play a big part in his two point decisions. Heavy rain or high winds will affect his mindset.

    Patriots 2 te, just because they are the pats

  • PDFOUR

    @thedkexperience said...

    This Dak/Zeke nonsense needs to stop.

    -They are ROOKIES in their first NFL game. – The Giants D is significantly more talented now than 1 year ago even if they have not jelled yet. – Dallas can have the best O-line in the universe but when that 6th rusher comes and your rookie read option QB cannot identify him, causing your rookie RB to block the wrong direction wackiness will ensue. – How many of you watch preseason and get fooled EVERY YEAR? It’s a mirage people! Eli and Odell didn’t forget how to play football. Zeke isn’t going to have enough carries while they are playing catch up, and Dak is looking at 3 turnovers easy. If there is anything resembling a must play here it’s the Giants D.

    If the Cowboys switched logos with the Browns they would be getting predicted to go 3-13.

    After watching how Zeke did against Seattle’s starters, I’m not worried about the giants lol

  • FFguru71

    I’m done trying to think I’m being contrarian…just when I take a guy in a week thinking he will be low owned because no one would think to take him…lo and behold he’s 25-30% owned. It’s almost at the point where you have to completely throw a dart and be stupid with someone to be truly contrarian.

  • icerange522

    thursdays ownership numbers every week give u good clue on percentage of ownership for sundays contests there is website called dfs report

  • OutWorkedByNo1

    Here is a super deep sleeper combination play

    Marcus MariotaTajae Sharpe
    $7800 and $4800

    Was reading the thread and people said Mariota had a huge week 1 last year. Arguably he has a better recieving core this year and the hype on Sharpe in redraft leagues is very high. Could be his coming out party as a home opener favorite against Minnesotta.

    What you guys think?

  • mellofellowsu

    @icerange522 said...

    interesting how people worried about percent ownership by a qb . there are 8 other positions in your lineups to fill so even if u put 15-20 percent owned qb in ur gpp u can still differentiate urself from others by having two or three contrarian picks in other positions . so to me in gpp i like to balance between value plays and contrarian/upside plays .

    Agreed. QB is one spot I generally couldn’t care less where everyone else is going. Couple of reasons why; QB play is generally pretty consistent with the least amount of variance, so there’s generally not a huge edge to be gained from being contrarian at QB anyway. You can usually narrow down tournament options to 10 or so QBs so no reason to not have exposure to the perfect LU QB.

    WR on the other hand is under-analyzed IMO, especially the WR3. Everyone’s trying to lock in AB, OBJ, Hopkins or Julio, but nearly every week there’s some ~$5k that pops for a WR1 type score. Seems worth it to lock in at QB and take bigger chances at the WR3 spot. Getting enough exposure to that guy is the trick though.

  • icerange522

    excellent point wr and te has highest variance from all positions and i try to have at least one contrarian wr in lineup could be wr 3 thats flying under radar or higher profile receiver in tough matchup but high expected target level and talent level. many winning lineups in multi entry gps have 2-3 low owned players like 1 wr 1rb and mayne kicker so i believe u can win large gpp with prescott if he goes off even if he is 20 percent owned

  • zpa1989

    very tough to get off spencer ware against one of the worst run d’s last year if charles is out. the question is will west cut into his production?

    ryan mathews and rashad jennings also good value plays at RB.

    tough getting off marvin jones at 5.5 on FD

    if i remember correctly, last year, very rarely did a GPP winning team on FD have an 8k plus RB. almost never. if someone can show me a week that it happened go ahead. another trend i noticed is that there was almost ALWAYS a 9k or so WR in there. always one. just a question of who that will be this week. like brown, but his road splits scare me a little only good game on the road last year was the browns and they were one of the worst defenses. OBJ did nothing against dallas last year, but did the year before. dallas d will probably be bad, so maybe obj in in play. then julio, who at home, is always in play. decisions…

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