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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 7th
    8:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( 8 ) at New England ( -8 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, September 10th
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 6.5 ) at Buffalo ( -6.5 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( -6 ) at Chicago ( 6 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 4.5 ) at Houston ( -4.5 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 2.5 ) at Washington ( -2.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 2.5 ) at Detroit ( -2.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( -1 ) at Tennessee ( 1 ) —- T: 53
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 2 ) at Miami ( -2 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 1 ) at Cincinnati ( -1 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -9.5 ) at Cleveland ( 9.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( -3.5 ) at LA Rams ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( 3 ) at Green Bay ( -3 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Carolina ( -4 ) at San Francisco ( 4 ) —- T: 49
    8:30 PM EST : NY Giants ( 6 ) at Dallas ( -6 ) —- T: 50.5

    Monday, September 11th
    7:10 PM EST : New Orleans ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48.5
    10:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4 ) at Denver ( -4 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • monarch

    Lots of talk going to Shady, Leveon, Carlos and DJ. Are DeMarco and Devonta going to be low owned?

  • thedkexperience

    Random thoughts …

    I’m stunned that we’re 90 pages in and so few have devoted any time to kicker game theory. I have the Giants kicker in all 5 of my season long leagues and over 80% of my 30+ LUs this weekend. All I know about him is that he plays for an Eli Manning QB’d team that stalls out in the red zone constantly and he went 8/8 in the preseason.

    —-

    I kind of like Torrey Smith to catch a long TD this week.

    —-

    McCaffery: 12 carries 48 yards, 3 catches 80 yards, 2 TDs … one from 50+.

    —-

    This week Decker > Jordy.

    —-

    I think the million (or billion hahaha) is decided partially by a Rams player who is not Todd Gurley.

    And it will make no sense.

    —-

    I think the Redskins and Kirk Cousins are the most overlooked team and player in the NFL and they might win the NFC East.

    I’m a Giants fan who lives 15 minutes from Philly so I have some perspective on this one.

    —-

    Is everyone sleeping on Antonio Brown or is it so obvious that it’s not even worth talking about?

    —-
    BONUS HIAKU

    Sam Bradford is bad.

    Sam Bradford has New Orleans.

    Maybe Sam Bradford?

  • mnstone14

    how poor of a decision is it to go shady over dj and bell in cash?

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @CleverGroom said...

    Okay, that’s a response to why Decker’s fantasy production has been better than Nelson’s when we give them both competent QBs. Decker’s been in the RZ more than Jordy, relative to the number of games/snaps/routes/targets they each have. Good point.

    It does nothing to take away from the fact that Decker converts RZ opportunities into TDs at a higher rate than Nelson. You send each of them into the RZ 100 times, Decker and whichever QB happens to be throwing to him come away with more TDs than Nelson+Rodgers. Sup with that? If it’s even close, that should be a plus for Decker at 2/3rds the price, but he’s actually been better? Sup with that?

    Actually it’s the opposite – Nelson’s been in the red zone more thus has more opportunities to fail thus bringing his percentages down. Don’t have exact numbers to back that up but I do know that Jordy has 63 career TD’s to Deckers 52. You also have Decker having to establish chemistry with a new QB (and this is a thing, especially early in the season) while Nelson has as much chemistry with Ole Sad Eyes as any QB-WR combo in the league.

    Don’t think Decker is a bad play, and Jordy certainly has a tough match up but comparing these two the way you have isn’t the right way to evaluate who to play this week between the two (I’ll likely have about 10% of both fwiw).

  • mike42

    Nobody will win it as the odds are still 87 gazillion to 1 – in fact I’ll go further and say that there is nobody left standing with nuts after just the early games. We certainly won’t have to follow a billion dollar sweat going into the night game.

    The odds are comparable to getting eaten by shark while getting struck by lightning. ESPN does the same thing with their March Madness perfect bracket. It’s basically impossible. I’m not even going to try and it’s free.

  • steelcitydozer

    @mike42 said...

    The odds are comparable to getting eaten by shark while getting struck by lightning. ESPN does the same thing with their March Madness perfect bracket. It’s basically impossible. I’m not even going to try and it’s free.

    Why not try they it’s still got free money up for grabs . Maybe you can sneak in a min cash or something, be foolish not to enter a freeroll who cares about the billion we all know it’s near impossible

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mike42 said...

    Nobody will win it as the odds are still 87 gazillion to 1 – in fact I’ll go further and say that there is nobody left standing with nuts after just the early games. We certainly won’t have to follow a billion dollar sweat going into the night game.

    The odds are comparable to getting eaten by shark while getting struck by lightning. ESPN does the same thing with their March Madness perfect bracket. It’s basically impossible. I’m not even going to try and it’s free.

    why not try? there are additional prizes in the freeroll – you don’t have to hit perfect to win. Takes all of two minutes to make a lineup.

  • CleverGroom

    @thehazyone said...

    Actually it’s the opposite – Nelson’s been in the red zone more thus has more opportunities to fail thus bringing his percentages down.

    That’s nonsense. He’s also had more opportunities to succeed. You don’t convert things at a lower rate over more trials simply because there’s more trials.

    What I think you’re trying to argue is that Decker’s sample size is too small, and that he is therefore due for regression to the mean—which you assume is lower than his current rate of conversion. By the time he reaches Nelson’s sample size, he will have regressed downward.

    Here’s the problem: Decker’s sample size is 104 RZ targets. Nelson’s sample size is 119 RZ targets. If Decker receives 15 more RZ targets and converts 0%, he will finish at 37 RZ TDs to Nelson’s 36 RZ TDs, and obviously have a slightly higher rate of conversion. You cannot argue sample size if we’re talking specifically about Decker vs. Nelson.

    In any event, I don’t really care. This isn’t about Nelson vs. Decker. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Nelson vs. Decker. I picked Nelson for the comparison, because I knew offhand that Jordy Nelson is really good at converting RZ tries to TDs, and to my surprise, I found that Eric Decker is really fucking good at converting RZ tries to TDs, despite having had worse QB play—and certainly less “chemistry”—on average.

    This has nothing whatsoever to do with deciding whether I’m going to play Jordy Nelson or Eric Decker—I wouldn’t play Jordy Nelson this week even if he was Decker’s price. I just think it’s interesting. It’s made me rethink my impressions of Eric Decker. Judging from the way people have reacted, I think you should be reevaluating your preconceptions about him too.

  • crazypaul

    I’m more than likely going to lose power over night thanks to Irma, so help me out real quick. Who will finish with more points this weekend on Draftkings, Darren Sproles or Taylor Gabriel?

    You can answer here in the forum or on my twitter poll. Thanks!
    https://twitter.com/_CrazyPaul/status/906513716392448000

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @CleverGroom said...

    That’s nonsense. He’s also had more opportunities to succeed. You don’t convert things at a lower rate over more trials simply because there’s more trials.

    What I think you’re trying to argue is that Decker’s sample size is too small, and that he is therefore due for regression to the mean—which you assume is lower than his current rate of conversion. By the time he reaches Nelson’s sample size, he will have regressed downward.

    Here’s the problem: Decker’s sample size is 104 RZ targets. Nelson’s sample size is 119 RZ targets. If Decker receives 15 more RZ targets and converts 0%, he will finish at 37 RZ TDs to Nelson’s 36 RZ TDs, and obviously have a slightly higher rate of conversion. You cannot argue sample size if we’re talking specifically about Decker vs. Nelson.

    In any event, I don’t really care. This isn’t about Nelson vs. Decker. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Nelson vs. Decker. I picked Nelson for the comparison, because I knew offhand that Jordy Nelson is really good at converting RZ tries to TDs, and to my surprise, I found that Eric Decker is really fucking good at converting RZ tries to TDs, despite having had worse QB play—and certainly less “chemistry”—on average.

    This has nothing whatsoever to do with deciding whether I’m going to play Jordy Nelson or Eric Decker—I wouldn’t play Jordy Nelson this week even if he was Decker’s price. I just think it’s interesting. It’s made me rethink my impressions of Eric Decker. Judging from the way people have reacted, I think you should be reevaluating your preconceptions about him too.

    All Eric “Big Dick” Decker does is score TD’s. On this much we can agree.


  • winnerchickendinner

    Nothing is better than getting some yard work done, playing catch with your brother, then later kicking back with a plate full of food watching college football while doing research to possibly win a million dollars.

  • CleverGroom

    @thehazyone said...

    All Eric “Big Dick” Decker does is score TD’s. On this much we can agree.

    Right, the nickname! That should be worth points for sure.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

  • noddy

    Decker had Tebow!!!!!!!!!!!!! Huge advantage right there over Nelson :)

  • KindGuy

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Interesting that Cincinnati and Baltimore were both top 10 in pace of play last year.

    Make sure you’re looking at situation-adjusted pace.

  • KindGuy

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Nothing is better than getting some yard work done, playing catch with your brother, then later kicking back with a plate full of food watching college football while doing research to possibly win a million dollars.

    ‘Merica

  • steelcitydozer

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Nothing is better than getting some yard work done, playing catch with your brother, then later kicking back with a plate full of food watching college football while doing research to possibly win a million dollars.

  • Supersharpie

    Looks like there is going to be massive overlay in both DK and FD’s millymaker contests.

  • miggs6876

    My top wr this week is AJ Green.

  • econbrah11

    Do you have any insight of the projected use of Derrick Henry ? He looked great in preseason do you think he’ll get more involved ? Kinda scared especially for week 1 I tend to prefer running backs with no competition.

  • kdsdawg

    I would consider Decker this week at his price more if he had played the preseason with his new QB

  • winnerchickendinner

    @elementasrat said...

    Make sure you’re looking at situation-adjusted pace.

    I did

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/pacestats2016

  • Supanice

    @MattyK1981 said...

    I really like my Rodgers / Cobb stack as a pivot from a lot of other highly-owned stacks for the DK Sunday milly, however I am nervous about having L Miller / Hou DST since the Jax DST is formidable. I love the Hou DST but perhaps I’m getting ambitious pairing them with Miller when I consider who his QB is.

    Tough to pass on a 5k guy getting 20+ touches as a home favorite

  • hunteezee

    @econbrah11 said...

    Do you have any insight of the projected use of Derrick Henry ? He looked great in preseason do you think he’ll get more involved ? Kinda scared especially for week 1 I tend to prefer running backs with no competition.

    The coaches still consider Murray as the bell cow, especially in the early weeks. As the year goes on Henry will slowly start stealing more snaps. I might be alone on this, but Mularkey has a history of giving players one role till they master that role, and Henry was given tons of goal line looks in the preseason, so I think he starts to vulture TD’s, even in this game I think he steals one.

  • jaygee9

    How can McCoy not make 2x? What narrative keeps him from exceeding value besides injury???

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