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  • Fantasy_Savant22

    Thursday, September 6th
    8:20 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3 ) at Philadelphia ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Sunday, September 9th
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 9.5 ) at New Orleans ( -9.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -1 ) at Miami ( 1 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 7 ) at Baltimore ( -7 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at NY Giants ( 3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -5.5 ) at Cleveland ( 5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 3 ) at Indianapolis ( -3 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 6.5 ) at New England ( -6.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 6 ) at Minnesota ( -6 ) —- T: 46
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 2.5 ) at Carolina ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 42
    4:25 PM EST : Washington ( (Pick) ) at Arizona ( (Pick) ) —- T: 44
    8:20 PM EST : Chicago ( 8 ) at Green Bay ( -8 ) —- T: 47.5

    Monday, September 10th
    7:10 PM EST : NY Jets ( 6.5 ) at Detroit ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44
    10:20 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3.5 ) at Oakland ( 3.5 ) —- T: 49.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • parrothead112

    Should I maybe just play Tom Brady and stop thinking about it?

  • BIF

    @CleverGroom said...

    Correct. That’s bad.

    You’re not the only one who thinks this, of course. It’s a very common, seductive myth.

    Here’s a piece by Raybon that will help explain.

    I know you are a Raybon disciple but I think a lot of his theories and analysis should have the preceding disclaimer saying “on average” or “over time” or “in cash”.

    On an any given week situation which is what GPP is, there are countless GPP winning back-door comeback QB blow-up scenarios. There are also even more failed comebacks that ended in multiple turnovers and sacks.

    The point I’m making is, a lot of people made a lot of money in GPPs playing Bortles and Winston in their come from behind blow-up spots a couple years ago. I’ll always have 10-15% of 1-2 QBs playing in a negative script because they’ll be low owned, shit happens and sometimes “anomaly week” hits. There was a good discussion on Brees the last few pages, I’m looking at Fitzmagic in same game. The Bucs do have a very good receiving core with Evans, DJax, Godwin, Brate and OJ Howard so they are very capable of putting up 3-4 passing TDs plus Fitz is good for 20-30yds rushing any given week especially in a situation where they are likely trailing early or in a crazy to think about back and forth shootout. I’ll be overweight Fitz playing various stacks but also not a too crazy amount where it cripples me if he is FitzDisaster instead.

    Edit – I should add that I do agree with Raybon and his “don’t miss with QB” theory for cash – don’t over think QB for cash. In GPP, a lot of winning QBs are high variance guys like Mariota, Winston (when not suspended 😡) and not just the ARod or Brady types.

  • lightninglarry

    • Ranked #39

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Brian7479 said...

    I don’t think I’ve seen barely anybody mention Rivers for week 1. If KC somehow gets a lead this is a GPP winning spot for him

    Shh. Its our secret

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 678

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @CleverGroom said...

    On the other hand, how do I think this particular game would play out if KC gets ahead? I’d say LAC would hang around. The only thing that says Rivers can’t answer early and often is his peculiar history with Bob Sutton. The game could very well shoot out if Mahomes is finding ways to score. Now both QBs are in play.

    This is one of the games that if I’m not stacking it, I’m really only interested in the SD side (with Gordon and SD Def in particular).

    KC also no longer has Marcus Peters so a lot of their stats against WRs will be moot in week 1. So its not a bad idea to go with someone like Mike Williams as a punt.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 678

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @BIF said...

    I know you are a Raybon disciple but I think a lot of his theories and analysis should have the preceding disclaimer saying “on average” or “over time” or “in cash”.

    I’ve been reading Raybon for a few years now and I have found this to be the case. Even if he is saying GPP he really means “low leverage, single entry” and not large field prize pools.

    He has great statistical analysis though, if thats your thing.

  • Jrock821

    Hogan. This Pats D is going to be very shaky to start the season. Just like last year. I think both teams will be around 30+ pts. Allot of Hogan and James White until all the new pieces get up to game speed.

  • Smallchimp

    Is there really any game that’s downright fantasy-ugly this main slate? BAL BUF is a “pick on the bills” spot, HOU NE, IND CIN, and KC LAC are potential shootouts, DAL and CAR has some of the chalkiest looking RBs on the slate, WAS ARI has DJ and some AD hype, PIT CLE has the two most expensive WR and RB along with a lot of value, SEA DEN is low key sneaky, NYG JAX has giants hype behind their skill players and Jax hype with their DST and Fournette coming in hot, and we’ve already discussed NO TB. The most “out of place” games I really see are SF MIN and TEN MIA and both games have probably 5 or more players that are more than dart throws.

    What games are you guys hunkering down on and which are you dismissing?

  • NDNole

    @jriesel315 said...

    Is there really any game that’s downright fantasy-ugly this main slate? BAL BUF is a “pick on the bills” spot, HOU NE, IND CIN, and KC LAC are potential shootouts, DAL and CAR has some of the chalkiest looking RBs on the slate, WAS ARI has DJ and some AD hype, PIT CLE has the two most expensive WR and RB along with a lot of value, SEA DEN is low key sneaky, NYG JAX has giants hype behind their skill players and Jax hype with their DST and Fournette coming in hot, and we’ve already discussed NO TB. The most “out of place” games I really see are SF MIN and TEN MIA and both games have probably 5 or more players that are more than dart throws.

    What games are you guys hunkering down on and which are you dismissing?

    Cant get a read on Tenn Mia other than drake so outside of him and MIA defense I am skipping that. Other than that its fair game. I should add I have zero exposure to PIT CLE.

  • econbrah11

    Danny Amendola has a nice potential for his price. He is one of the best options in the 5000$ range on FD.

  • Soma919

    I like Ross and John Brown in the $5,000 range in GPPS more than amendola

  • JoeyG113

    @Brian7479 said...

    That piece by Raybon points to the idea of efficiency. I’m not talking about playing Tom Savage. Would I play Phillip Rivers against a KC team that just got crushed by a 2nd string Bears offense? Absolutely. And if I knew KC would have a lead and Rivers would be playing catchup with the weapons he has around him against this KC defense I’d play more of him.

    First off, great discussion by you guys. I think both sides of this debate can be right, and examples can be laid out for each. Raybon’s article is great information, and it is a good indicator of how we should go with the better odds/numbers for better results. In the end, this is all a numbers game, and his article is a great help in that regard. I think an article like this can consistently put you on the right track to build a bankroll, or futher more, hit something big.

    For the multiple entry gambler like myself, I would rather play against the odds than with them. Not that my entire lineup is contrarian. I pick my spots where I go with what I believe in without the thought of ownership, but I also intentionally pick my spots where I think ownership will be low on a capable player. So, when articles that I think the masses are going to read come out, I want to try to use that against my competition. Will they beat me most of the time, maybe so, probably so, but I just feel better about the process that I believe in.

    Going back to what Brian was saying, I think playing an underdog that has an efficient QB is probably the right direction to go when selecting a QB that you expect to be trailing and in comeback mode. Then, as he was stating, if you play the game in the opposite direction of what everyone is thinking, that plays a role in being different.

    With that being said, I think CG is right about if you are going to play a QB in that particular game, then Patrick Mahomes is the route to go. If the game is going to play out that way, then Phillip Rivers is fine, but Patrick Mahomes with a WR or Kelce is probably a better option in GPPs and then coming back with a Charger, maybe even two. Ownership percentage is not the end all be all, but I would figure Mahomes will be lower owned than Rivers. From watching the little bit of film out there, I believe Mahomes is in that category of an efficient passer with a live arm. This is an ultra tough spot for him as it is a road game with tons of edge pressure and very good coverage. Chargers sacked Alex Smith 5 times in LA last season, so Mahomes is in for it.

    As good as the Charger’s defense is, I do think they have quite the challenge in front of them as well. Two fast receivers on the outside, an elite tight end that can attack you between the hashes, and the league’s leading rusher from a season ago that completely torched them in 2017. Not to mention that Andy Reid is a magician with QBs and Hunt is awesome in the passing game as well. Based on the statistics we have on Hunt catching passes, he should and he will get more looks in that facet. Put all that together, and the Chargers have a lot to contend with. Now Mahomes and Watkins haven’t been on the same page, and Sammy looks out of sorts so far, but gimme some of that.

    I absolutely love this game in every way possible in regards to GPPs. I like both running backs, and almost every single pass catcher. I am more in love with the Chiefs side of things than the Chargers just due how I think the public perceives this game, but not only how they perceive it, but how I do. I think although the Chief’s skilled position players are facing a much tougher defense, they can be just as productive with their fantasy production in this game as the Chargers.

    I know the statistics of what the Charger’s have done to opposing team’s passing attacks, and how they make quarterbacks uncomfortable. Given that information, what an incredible spot for Patrick Mahomes to shine in. Picking on statistically good defenses with what you think is a capable player, stack, or connection is a wonderful thing.

    Taking into consideration that Mahomes is inexperienced at this level, and I love the play even more. I want him before he does it, and I want him when he plays that defense that he wasn’t supposed to do it on. That is the combination I am looking for in a guy that I think is capable.

  • Smallchimp

    @Soma919 said...

    I like Ross and John Brown in the $5,000 range in GPPS more than amendola

    On Draftkings, Danny Amendola is $4200 while John Ross is $3900 (what about Tyler Boyd at $3100??) and John Brown is $3700. Looks like us DK-ers are getting a little bit more value out of this. I’m definitely interested in the latter three options, I feel like if you can get the CIN receiver right you’ll really be set. Ross is the WR2, right? I’d love some CG insight on this

    DeVante Parker’s injury may bump everyone up a spot, so Amendola isn’t a bad call, it just depends on the injury and where Stills, Amendola, and Wilson end up in the target share.

  • kipboggins

    Clever Groom great to see you back, always appreciate your insight every NFL Season!

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    with Charger DB’s dropping like preseason flies, I think Reid HAS to keep the pedal down and in what turns out to be the highest scoring game on the slate, both QB’s throw for 300+ and multiple TD’s and both RB’s have 20+ points

    Both D’s will be back on their heels in this trackmeet

  • JoeyG113

    @jriesel315 said...

    Is there really any game that’s downright fantasy-ugly this main slate? BAL BUF is a “pick on the bills” spot, HOU NE, IND CIN, and KC LAC are potential shootouts, DAL and CAR has some of the chalkiest looking RBs on the slate, WAS ARI has DJ and some AD hype, PIT CLE has the two most expensive WR and RB along with a lot of value, SEA DEN is low key sneaky, NYG JAX has giants hype behind their skill players and Jax hype with their DST and Fournette coming in hot, and we’ve already discussed NO TB. The most “out of place” games I really see are SF MIN and TEN MIA and both games have probably 5 or more players that are more than dart throws.

    What games are you guys hunkering down on and which are you dismissing?

    The games and players I am targeting has changed quite a bit in the last couple of weeks. Even though we can’t necessarily take what we see on preseason game film as a terrific indicator of how things will play out, I do think some of the things I have seen in the last couple of preseason weeks has put me on some players and got me off some others. Then, trying to decide how to be contrarian with the balance of what I believe in has changed some things for me as well. Most of that is due to how much money I have to work with after I get done with I believe in.

    So, to answer your question games that I am totally avoiding…
    BUF @ BAL

    HOU @ NE…. that won’t probably be on anyone else’s dismiss list

    JAX @ NYG… initially I was on OBJ and Barkley, but I have changed my mind due to better GPP alternatives in my mind

    There are 4 to 5 games that I only have 1 maybe 2 players from both teams combined in.

    Games I am targeting multiple players from both sides…
    KC @ LAC

    SF @ MIN

    CIN @ IND

    Games in which I am targeting multiple players on, but to a lesser degree of exposure…
    TB @ NO

    PIT @ CLE

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @JoeyG113 said...

    Picking on statistically good defenses with what you think is a capable player, stack, or connection is a wonderful thing.

    Taking into consideration that Mahomes is inexperienced at this level, and I love the play even more. I want him before he does it, and I want him when he plays that defense that he wasn’t supposed to do it on. That is the combination I am looking for in a guy that I think is capable.

    And that is GPP winning DFS QB advice in a nutshell! LOL Charger D probably higher owned than Mahomes. You pick your favorite spot based on who the herd likes the least and roll with it. All the Tra’Quan Smith

  • Trappist1

    @bluebroker said...

    It’s not even week 1 yet. This boards lack of civility is already in playoff form. Not that anyone cares but this is why some people, including me, stop posting. I got sick of this shit at the end of last year. There are all levels of dfs players in here and it helps if ppl act accordingly. Nothing wrong with spirited discussions but running people off doesn’t make the board better. We all learned that last year. People are here to learn and share information. It isn’t that hard to be civil.

    EDIT: I’m no dfs expert. This will be my 3rd full year playing NFL. If anyone new to this has questions but you’re afraid to post due to public ridicule just DM someone on RG with your question. There are many helpful people who are willing to share. Don’t expect them to tell you everything but they will give guidance. You’ll figure out who they are as the season progresses.

    I am 100% in agreement with you bluebroker. Be civil and have an engaging discussion. I am here to learn, pick information and share information. There are no DFS experts, it is a shifting puzzle day by day, week by week, season by season. So best to have as much information as possible to make informed decisions/forecasts. I am no NFL expert at all, playing it from the UK, where our main sport is footy/soccer. But having fun with NFL DFS and trying my best to see if i can crack the puzzle. :)

  • JoeyG113

    @jriesel315 said...

    On Draftkings, Danny Amendola is $4200 while John Ross is $3900 (what about Tyler Boyd at $3100??) and John Brown is $3700. Looks like us DK-ers are getting a little bit more value out of this. I’m definitely interested in the latter three options, I feel like if you can get the CIN receiver right you’ll really be set. Ross is the WR2, right? I’d love some CG insight on this

    DeVante Parker’s injury may bump everyone up a spot, so Amendola isn’t a bad call, it just depends on the injury and where Stills, Amendola, and Wilson end up in the target share.

    Out of that grouping, I like Tyler Boyd and John Ross. I think Tyler Boyd is their actual #2, but the snap counts between Ross and Boyd will probably be similar and both should get their share of opportunities. After that John Ross touchdown this past weekend that was nationally televised, I want more shares of Boyd than Ross, but I will have an equal share of both to cover my bases.

  • mrjredoak

    @sanders_tj said...

    The thing that you want to look for in QB’s is efficiency. Fantasy Points per pass attempts and/or TD’s per pass attempt are great indicators of effiency. They are my starting points before factoring in matchups and everything else that gets looked at before lineup construction.

    What is a good (preferably free) resource for this data?

  • bignish

    @CleverGroom said...

    Why would a KC lead help Rivers?

    That’s not how it works. We want positive game script for our QBs.

    Do you disagree with the implied Vegas odds and go with your own projected game script instead in some games?

    For instance, for CIN-IND, I see a game in the mid 50s and I feel this should be a Pick ‘Em instead of IND -3 or perhaps even CIN to be favored by up to a field goal.

    Chris Rayborn would suggest that Andy Dalton is a terrible cash selection with CIN’s implied point total only being 21.75 and the Bengals being a slight underdog.

    However based on how I project this game playing out, Dalton stands out like a sore thumb to be me and is at the top of my list for cash QBs for Week 1.

  • squidkill

    @Mtwizz777 said...

    If you aren’t able to recognize the pattern of mark Ingram after being benched for a fumble having a huge game then i dont think your a good dfs player. Gimme allllllllllllll the Mark Ingram week 5 when they play the Redskins. It’s not like he was taking anabolic steroids (unless PED’s are them. What are PED’s anyways?)

    ok pal Send me a H2H on DK- any amount Squidcity12—- Week 5 or any week you’d like- not sure how my opinion about Mark Ingram correlates to me being a poor DFS player but ok Ill bite- Squidcity12

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @bignish said...

    Chris Rayborn would suggest that Andy Dalton is a terrible cash selection with CIN’s implied point total only being 21.75 and the Bengals being a slight underdog.

    However based on how I project this game playing out, Dalton stands out like a sore thumb to be me and is at the top of my list for cash QBs for Week 1.

    And THIS is why this thread is so great. Let’s face, in DFS, EVERYONE is owned somewhere. Who likes Dalton, who doesn’t. Ingram is a top 3 RB, no he’s not. Attack the Charger D with Mahomes, NEVER attack the Charger D. To Bortles or not to Bortles, THAT is the question. But the different perspectives, that’s what makes it so interesting. And I’ve never been too proud too ignore knowledge from people smarter than myself, different perspectives are not necessarily wrong perspectives. So keep posting people, and remember, there are no bad picks at WR, just misunderstood ones. All the Tra’Quon Smith

  • AVivier

    @jriesel315 said...

    On Draftkings, Danny Amendola is $4200 while John Ross is $3900 (what about Tyler Boyd at $3100??) and John Brown is $3700. Looks like us DK-ers are getting a little bit more value out of this. I’m definitely interested in the latter three options, I feel like if you can get the CIN receiver right you’ll really be set. Ross is the WR2, right? I’d love some CG insight on this

    DeVante Parker’s injury may bump everyone up a spot, so Amendola isn’t a bad call, it just depends on the injury and where Stills, Amendola, and Wilson end up in the target share.

    Didn’t Landry have like 130 targets last year. And you got Parker underperforming and injured. That’s a lot of targets to make up. Amendola is definitely someone on my radar priced that low who may get overlooked.

  • Smallchimp

    @bignish said...

    Do you disagree with the implied Vegas odds and go with your own projected game script instead in some games?

    For instance, for CIN-IND, I see a game in the mid 50s and I feel this should be a Pick ‘Em instead of IND -3 or perhaps even CIN to be favored by up to a field goal.

    Chris Rayborn would suggest that Andy Dalton is a terrible cash selection with CIN’s implied point total only being 21.75 and the Bengals being a slight underdog.

    However based on how I project this game playing out, Dalton stands out like a sore thumb to be me and is at the top of my list for cash QBs for Week 1.

    The edge to Indy is probably just riding on the fact that Andrew Luck is an “exciting” pick, like people will pick the Colts expecting that he’s going to win it for them. Vegas Odds are as much bait as they are a ballpark estimate

  • NDNole

    @squidkill said...

    ok pal Send me a H2H on DK- any amount Squidcity12—- Week 5 or any week you’d like- not sure how my opinion about Mark Ingram correlates to me being a poor DFS player but ok Ill bite- Squidcity12

    .

    Putting your money where your mouth is

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