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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @Smallchimp said...

    Something that’s been on my mind lately is this:

    The obvious perception of the Jets vs. Bills game is that the Jets decimated secondary will make the Bills passing game efficient and have players like Beasley and John Brown be high potential plays. Last season, Josh Allen had the lowest completion percentage when pressured. Additionally, the Jets had one of the lowest rates of QB pressure in the league last season, but in the Week 14 match up, 24/45 of Allen’s’ drop-backs were pressured, or about 55.3%. This is well above the 43.4% rate Allen had over the course of the season and the Jets were able to win this game 27-23 while holding Allen to a 50% completion rating.

    I think the Jets D will surprise some people this year. They beefed up the D-line in the draft which should increase pressure vs a so-so Bills OL. And if Jets offense is as improved as some say, should keep D off the field more (Jets were 25th in TOP last year)

  • emnj69

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    I think the Jets D will surprise some people this year. They beefed up the D-line in the draft which should increase pressure vs a so-so Bills OL. And if Jets offense is as improved as some say, should keep D off the field more (Jets were 25th in TOP last year)

    negative defense is paper thin at secondary and linebacker-they drafted d line but not an outside rusher which they desperately needed-Learnord Williams has not been the dominant force they needed him to be

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @emnj69 said...

    yes they will want to run run run and part of it will be their qb who puts the ball on the ground-one or two fumbles and they will get me what i need out of them

    As a strictly GPP player I don’t see the upside there. I’m looking for the Ravens to control game and win 24-13. I think Miami D ceiling is 8. Couple TOs/Sacks. Not to say they can’t score more, just betting they don’t. Good luck tho, and LET’S GO J-E-T-S… JETS JETS JETS

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @emnj69 said...

    negative defense is paper thin at secondary and linebacker-they drafted d line but not an outside rusher which they desperately needed-Learnord Williams has not been the dominant force they needed him to be

    LOL don’t be such a Jets fan. They got Mosley at LB, still has some plays in him and brings a veteran, winning presence to the locker room. Don’t discount that. And their SS Adams was a Pro Bowl invitee last year. And if #3 pick in the draft Q. Williams does what he’s done in college, I think the needle is pointing up for Jet fans this year. If it wasn’t for the Hoffa curse (and Gase) I’d say they’ll compete for a WC this year

  • Hoods From The Wood

    Lol, Spy-gate, Deflate-gate, Serialkillerontheroster-gate, Ownerbangingunderageasiangirls-gate and now Felonycocainepossession-gate. Lol in 2009 their mascot, Pat Patriot was arrested in a prostitution sting. Snowplows and Tuck rules. How does the NFL discipline such a “storied” franchise? Lets them play the Bills, Dolphins and Jets 6 games every year

  • emnj69

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    As a strictly GPP player I don’t see the upside there. I’m looking for the Ravens to control game and win 24-13. I think Miami D ceiling is 8. Couple TOs/Sacks. Not to say they can’t score more, just betting they don’t. Good luck tho, and LET’S GO J-E-T-S… JETS JETS JETS

    I am a strictly a gpp player-I usually pay down at qb and defense-I won 100 k two years ago with the cheapest defense that week(the jets) and the cheapest Qb in Kizer and was the best dk line up that day-

  • emnj69

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    LOL don’t be such a Jets fan. They got Mosley at LB, still has some plays in him and brings a veteran, winning presence to the locker room. Don’t discount that. And their SS Adams was a Pro Bowl invitee last year. And if #3 pick in the draft Q. Williams does what he’s done in college, I think the needle is pointing up for Jet fans this year. If it wasn’t for the Hoffa curse (and Gase) I’d say they’ll compete for a WC this year

    they lost copeland and williamson that is huge-they are paper thin at lb and their secondary -Adams is beastly but that is it

  • JTAx33

    Looks like Zeke and the Cowboys making progress. The slate may be saved!

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @emnj69 said...

    I am a strictly a gpp player-I usually pay down at qb and defense-I won 100 k two years ago with the cheapest defense that week(the jets) and the cheapest Qb in Kizer and was the best dk line up that day-

    That’s awesome, congrats. To win a GPP is F’n great. To win it with your favorite teams D

    Beginning of the season,end? Lol Jets d was bad 2 years ago. Do you remember how many points the Jets D gave you that day?

  • emnj69

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    That’s awesome, congrats. To win a GPP is F’n great. To win it with your favorite teams D

    Beginning of the season,end? Lol Jets d was bad 2 years ago. Do you remember how many points the Jets D gave you that day?

    it was mid season I think they got me 20 I will have to check-I know I was at the game as I am a season ticket holder but at that time I had no idea I had a team in the running for something special. When I looked when I got home I had a very bad feeling come over me. I remembered I forgot to enter one of my teams in the million dollar contest that i drafted a few days earlier-I had like 8 teams that weekend-only one was not in the milly-it was my team that won the 100k-thanks to chris thompson in the late night game—so I won 100k but in my mind I lost 900k that day out of stupidity as it would have taken down the million as well- some where out there is a guy that won that day simply because I am an idiot lol

  • Smallchimp

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    As a strictly GPP player I don’t see the upside there. I’m looking for the Ravens to control game and win 24-13. I think Miami D ceiling is 8. Couple TOs/Sacks. Not to say they can’t score more, just betting they don’t. Good luck tho, and LET’S GO J-E-T-S… JETS JETS JETS

    Yeah, I just don’t see the upside. Baltimore could have the clock moving nonstop the entire game and not commit a turnover/make a questionable play. I don’t think Baltimore makes enough plays to where you get the upside of bigger DST plays. I’d sooner trust Carolina vs LA for the same price, Colts vs Chargers for $2600, or Lions vs Cardinals for $2900 if I want to spend less than $3000 on a defense. I just think all three of those have a higher probability of a gut-busting 15-20 point game because of a big turnover or something. I don’t know that Miami is going to be in that position Week 1

  • JTAx33

    @Smallchimp said...

    Yeah, I just don’t see the upside. Baltimore could have the clock moving nonstop the entire game and not commit a turnover/make a questionable play. I don’t think Baltimore makes enough plays to where you get the upside of bigger DST plays. I’d sooner trust Carolina vs LA for the same price, Colts vs Chargers for $2600, or Lions vs Cardinals for $2900 if I want to spend less than $3000 on a defense. I just think all three of those have a higher probability of a gut-busting 15-20 point game because of a big turnover or something. I don’t know that Miami is going to be in that position Week 1

    Yeah Miami D is probably the worst play on the board

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @emnj69 said...

    it was mid season I think they got me 20 I will have to check-I know I was at the game as I am a season ticket holder but at that time I had no idea I had a team in the running for something special. When I looked when I got home I had a very bad feeling come over me. I remembered I forgot to enter one of my teams in the million dollar contest that i drafted a few days earlier-I had like 8 teams that weekend-only one was not in the milly-it was my team that won the 100k-thanks to chris thompson in the late night game—so I won 100k but in my mind I lost 900k that day out of stupidity as it would have taken down the million as well- some where out there is a guy that won that day simply because I am an idiot lol

    Yeah, but if C-Thomp doesn’t come thru late for you it becomes another of those “I was so close this week stories”. You still cashed 6 figures. Someone didn’t get paid 100K because you did Bro. I think the real tragedy of the story is you’re a Jet season ticket holder lol

  • Luctyl99

    Seems like saquon and mccaffrey are going to be way lower owned than they should. Not too hard to get them both in a fanduel lineup.. might be the way to go.

  • Smallchimp

    @Luctyl99 said...

    Seems like saquon and mccaffrey are going to be way lower owned than they should. Not too hard to get them both in a fanduel lineup.. might be the way to go.

    Again, it’s the difference of going higher salary for potentially higher ceiling or going lower salary for lower (albeit potentially comparable) ceiling. If you have the cheaper plays and aren’t as interested in playing the mid-priced RBs, go for it. The biggest thing is that the most “meta” builds are either going to be $17.8k for CMC & Barkley, leaving $4600 for each of the 7 remaining spots or doing something like Chubb/Cook/K. Johnson, spend $18.2k, and have $5300 left for each of the last 6 roster spots. If you have a very good value flex play, you can get to somewhere like 70-75 FP for around 45% of your salary with double-stacking CMC and Barkley, but I think you can just as well get that same upside spending 35% with the mid-tier guys. You could very well get to 70ish FP if CMC and Barkley have monster games and thus basically have your flex spot be icing on the cake, but I’d imagine that’s lower probability than the mid-tier stack reaching that point. You do get a safer and higher floor most likely considering their expected volume, so if a value RB build doesn’t end up being as lucrative you miss that landmine.

    TL;DR: It’s Week 1, soft pricing means you can go anywhere. It’s just that there’s potential workhorses with a close enough range of outcomes to the studs that are much cheaper.

  • Luctyl99

    @Smallchimp said...

    Again, it’s the difference of going higher salary for potentially higher ceiling or going lower salary for lower (albeit potentially comparable) ceiling. If you have the cheaper plays and aren’t as interested in playing the mid-priced RBs, go for it. The biggest thing is that the most “meta” builds are either going to be $17.8k for CMC & Barkley, leaving $4600 for each of the 7 remaining spots or doing something like Chubb/Cook/K. Johnson, spend $18.2k, and have $5300 left for each of the last 6 roster spots. If you have a very good value flex play, you can get to somewhere like 70-75 FP for around 45% of your salary with double-stacking CMC and Barkley, but I think you can just as well get that same upside spending 35% with the mid-tier guys. You could very well get to 70ish FP if CMC and Barkley have monster games and thus basically have your flex spot be icing on the cake, but I’d imagine that’s lower probability than the mid-tier stack reaching that point. You do get a safer and higher floor most likely considering their expected volume, so if a value RB build doesn’t end up being as lucrative you miss that landmine.

    TL;DR: It’s Week 1, soft pricing means you can go anywhere. It’s just that there’s potential workhorses with a close enough range of outcomes to the studs that are much cheaper.

    I understand what you are saying. I personally dont agree that any of the guys you mentioned have remotely near the same ceiling as CMC and Barkley. And that’s why I feel it may be the move. They have a good chance of easily being the 2 highest scoring backs, while being lower owned than all of those guys who could easily put up 8 points

  • beare

    i think with no obj now teams will stack box on barkley

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @Luctyl99 said...

    Seems like saquon and mccaffrey are going to be way lower owned than they should. Not too hard to get them both in a fanduel lineup.. might be the way to go.

    This was the winning strategy like 15 out of 17 weeks last year. Stack stud running backs with high end TE. Cheap WRs, QB and Flex. Rinse and repeat.

  • rourke441

    two cheap wr that will start week1 keyshon johnson-ariz. and james washington-steelers p.s. a value qb i like in week1-matthew stafford

  • monarch

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    This was the winning strategy like 15 out of 17 weeks last year. Stack stud running backs with high end TE. Cheap WRs, QB and Flex. Rinse and repeat.

    But who are the stud running backs? Are Dalvin Cook and Chris Carson those guys just mispriced? Four weeks into the season I doubt they are 6000 and 5700. If Kerryon goes down I doubt CJA is 3900…Justin Jackson 4k without Melvin Gordon.

    There are a lot of ways to go week 1 which is fun

  • monarch

    Thoughts on a Baker/OBJ/Landry stack vs the Titans?

  • emnj69

    cam hurt definitely takes me off of mcaff-too bad as I like three guys on carolina-still time but boot does not sound good-nfl needs to scrap pre season-just let teams evaluate players during practice -plus as a season ticket holder it burns me that I have to pay full price to for scrub games that mean nothing-example jets preseason game this weekend costs me to the penny the same as Jets vs Pats or Jets vs Cowboys in the regular season. I always give my preseason away to people that normally cant attend regular season games due to cost but still ….

  • emnj69

    @monarch said...

    Thoughts on a Baker/OBJ/Landry stack vs the Titans?

    I would take out landry and replace with chubb and browns d-this is going to be a big statement game from browns-I expect baker to force it to OBJ early and often and when they get a big lead which I think they will then feed Chubb the rest of the way-titans are garbage-if you were a I need to run it back guy Walker is the only guy I would consider

  • monarch

    @emnj69 said...

    I would take out landry and replace with chubb and browns d-this is going to be a big statement game from browns-I expect baker to force it to OBJ early and often and when they get a big lead which I think they will then feed Chubb the rest of the way-titans are garbage-if you were a I need to run it back guy Walker is the only guy I would consider

    Sure. I’ve got game theory plays with Chubb

    But say the Browns dominate TOP they wont run Chubb into the ground in week 1. With no Duke Johnson you have 63 targets missing…I could see Landry getting a lot of work and in today’s game teams continue to throw all game long because it’s essentially better than wearing down your RB1

  • Smallchimp

    @monarch said...

    But who are the stud running backs? Are Dalvin Cook and Chris Carson those guys just mispriced? Four weeks into the season I doubt they are 6000 and 5700. If Kerryon goes down I doubt CJA is 3900…Justin Jackson 4k without Melvin Gordon.

    There are a lot of ways to go week 1 which is fun

    Exactly this. One week’s pricing has no effect on any other week’s pricing, but “stud running back” isn’t necessarily bound by salary tier outlines when players are potentially $1000-2000 below where their price is likely to settle and their workload is more similar to the higher priced players than the difference in salary would imply. The reason why CMC/Barkley/Kelce isn’t necessarily a free win is because you have more “studs” at lower prices that should get 20-25 touches, which would borderline on being “stud running back” usage.

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