NFL FORUM

Comments

  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Smallchimp

    You’re not wrong in the slightest, it’s more so just interesting to do a “first glance” at pricing as an ice breaker and then move on. 5 weeks of player selection definitely isn’t necessary. It’s def a priority to look at these opening weeks as potential 200+ cash lines. That’s why I’m not dying to roster someone who’s $500 cheaper than they were last season or a JAG being put into a bigger spot, the value just isn’t going to be there. When you know that there’s going to be a defense scoring 20 fpts and you need another 200 fantasy points to contend for a good finish, you need to roster players knowing you’re getting give/take 25 from each. And I can’t say I’m dying to jump on either the Boyd or the LAC running committee to get less than 25 on an average outing. Maybe I’m wrong, but if there’s an offseason injury to a playmaker, the “next in line” seems like a -EV play if there’s minimal time to game plan in favor of the de facto starter.

    Guess the TL;DR is that I’m betting the over on the number of “Is NFL DFS broken?” posts when the cash line is high like it was last opener.

  • Smallchimp

    @mtdurham said...

    A LOT of touts available on the internet always talk backwards DFS when it comes to the NFL…. they say stuff like “If you’re only playing one entry you gotta play Patrick Mahomes or “If you’re playing a bunch of lineups you can afford to take some chances on _____________ (name that crappy QB)”

    Biggest tout problem is the fact that they perpetuate the same issue that you see in NBA DFS. How many times does a 1:1 swap work? Remember Keenan Allen game when Ekeler chalk week happened? Spoiler alert, no one who had Ekeler was in line to win a GPP. Opportunity matters, but so does context. Teams don’t care about fantasy football, they don’t care about DFS. If a piece is busted, they don’t use a subpar piece. If the player being replaced is phenomenal, don’t touch. If the system is phenomenal, you can consider.

    There’s going to be a big injury this preseason, someone’s going to be “set and forget” in every two-bit lineup, and the players that are going to win GPPs are going to have below-average ownership on the chalk replacement. Someone like Ballage, Hyde, Ito Smith, etc. will end up being the super duper Week 1 “free square” and put up a hot 2x value multiplier and stink it up.

  • mtdurham

    As far as RB….it’s the easiest position to select from each week… follow the holy trinity

    #1 we roster opportunity
    #2 we only play pass catchers
    #3 we like touchdowns

    So if this guy doesnt get opportunities dont play him… if this dude doesn’t catch passes, dont play him…..and if this guy doesnt score touchdowns, dont play him….

    There I just saved you more money in one paragraph than you’ll make net of taxes working all week.

  • mtdurham

    Okay Wide Reciever is a little more complicated…..

    The most important aspect of WR is lineup construction….. a cheap RB who gets 4 carries and 2 goaline TD is trash….. a cheap RB who gets 9 carries and rips off one 40 yard TD with no receptions is trash…..

    but a cheap WR that scores on a 75 yard TD? Is never trash. And if he happens to make 4 more catches for 35 yards, he’s mandatory.

    So we always wanna plug in a cheap WR…always… there’s no guarantee a cheap RB will matter that week but it is guaranteed that a cheap WR will matter….. sometimes its a 5’8 guy who goes over the middle for 12 catches, 110 yards, and backs into a TD…sometimes its a speedy guy who rips off two bombs… sometimes its a washed up vet who scehmatically the defense forgets to pick up in goalline sets….. but there’s always gonna be someone cheap at WR every week that you need…

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #78

      RG Tiered Ranking

    SUPER early look, I like the potential of a Philip Rivers with Keenan Allen #mike-williams)Mike Williams”:/players/mike-williams-37037 stack for week 1. Potentially no Melvin Gordon or limited version at best.

    also while it is on the road, I like the Kerryon Johnson/Detroit D stack week 1 vs Arizona and Murray.

  • baseballislife93

    Feel like a lot of people gonna be on Boyd with AJ out but I think him being out hurts Boyd more then helps

  • Smallchimp

    @baseballislife93 said...

    Feel like a lot of people gonna be on Boyd with AJ out but I think him being out hurts Boyd more then helps

    Keep in mind you should be asking if Driskell playing for Dalton was more indicative of Boyd’s cap than missing AJG. Obviously you can make your own call, but that should weigh in.

  • mtdurham

    @baseballislife93 said...

    Feel like a lot of people gonna be on Boyd with AJ out but I think him being out hurts Boyd more then helps

    I’m never, ever a fan of guys who go from WR2 to WR1 due to injury……

    #1 the offense is always going to be worse (that’s bad)

    #2 their ownership is going to be elevated (that’s bad)

    #3 they will receive more defensive attention (that’s bad)

    #4 they are more likely to run the ball (that’s bad)

    #5 I already forgot what we were even talking about (that’s not necessarily bad)

    If we could win millions solely by reading an injury report why would humanity still even bother with the classics like Catcher in the Rye, Catch-22, and the Playboy Issue featuring Tia Carrere? I guess I could be wrong…. But each of these classic works still sell millions of copies annually….So I know I’m right…

  • keephustlincuz

    @baseballislife93 said...

    Feel like a lot of people gonna be on Boyd with AJ out but I think him being out hurts Boyd more then helps

    No interest in Erickson?

  • Smallchimp

    @mtdurham said...

    #4 they are more likely to run the ball (that’s bad)

    Remember:

    It doesn’t work in NBA DFS, it doesn’t work in NFL DFS: Positional replacement isn’t 1:1 and more often than not, the team changes gears to utilize the better pieces more.

  • JTAx33

    @baseballislife93 said...

    Feel like a lot of people gonna be on Boyd with AJ out but I think him being out hurts Boyd more then helps

    Or a “healthy” Tyler Eifert

  • baseballislife93

    @keephustlincuz said...

    No interest in Erickson?

    0 interest lol
    ill prob keep a eye on Ross in pre season saw already he having a minor hammy problem

  • BIF

    @keephustlincuz said...

    That’s not what I meant. Did they do a milly for thursday and sunday last year on opening weekend. My memory is fuzzy.

    They had a Milly Showdown for the Thurs season opener Eagle/Falcons last year – I was one of the 50ish winners. We got almost $25K each. That was the only Showdown Milly (when I say Milly, I mean Million to 1st).

    DK also runs a weekly GPP (Sunday only) Milly Maker for the first 15 or 16 weeks of regular season. It is usually $20 but they usually have at least one week where they raise it up to like $50 or $75 or more to tie into some arbitrary DK Anniversary thing.

  • mtdurham

    @BIF said...

    They had a Milly Showdown for the Thurs season opener Eagle/Falcons last year – I was one of the 50ish winners. We got almost $25K each. That was the only Showdown Milly (when I say Milly, I mean Million to 1st).

    DK also runs a weekly GPP (Sunday only) Milly Maker for the first 15 or 16 weeks of regular season. It is usually $20 but they usually have at least one week where they raise it up to like $50 or $75 or more to tie into some arbitrary DK Anniversary thing.

    I don’t like the way you used the term “arbitrary” as if they were manipulating revenue goals at the expense of us loyal patrons.

    Did you mean it that way or do you simply not recognize the great lengths DK goes to in order to provide us ample prize pools and excitement in our otherwise mundane lives Bif?

  • baahstonbotfly

    @mtdurham said...

    Here I’ll start…..

    Here are some basic principles….. I didnt play much Single Entry or 3-max last year i focused mostly on 20-max and 150-max….

    NFL is like Marble Madness

    EVERYTHING you know is wrong.

    A LOT of touts available on the internet always talk backwards DFS when it comes to the NFL…. they say stuff like “If you’re only playing one entry you gotta play Patrick Mahomes or “If you’re playing a bunch of lineups you can afford to take some chances on _____________ (name that crappy QB)”

    Well thats opposite….

    Think about it… if you’re playing single entry…. what’s Pat Mahomes most likeliest outcome…. like 25 FPS for $6,000 at 30% ownership? Well if that happens #1 you probably aren’t gonna win the GPP… and #2 you might not even cash….. If you get the most likeliest outcome… if he absolutely crushes congrats you might cash but you still prob wont win that GPP….

    The time to take an overweight/underweight stand on Mahomes is in 150-max or 20 max GPP…… not in Single Entry… In SIngle entry why not play that pretty boy in Chicago who can barely throw a spiral but might get 5 TD’s off of shovel passes and glorified laterals in that fancy pants offense?

    In GPP playing that guy might cash a lineup…. but in Single Entry that guy might Deliver you from Evil…

    That said……. Dont play expensive QB’s… they are Fool’s Errand for guys who don’t have time to research, have no clue what they are doing, and aren’t confident enough to select a roster like a man… they simply don’t have the upside to justify using them. If you’re scared get a dog. Don’t play NFL DFS. Dogs are cheaper.

  • BIF

    @mtdurham said...

    I don’t like the way you used the term “arbitrary” as if they were manipulating revenue goals at the expense of us loyal patrons.

    Did you mean it that way or do you simply not recognize the great lengths DK goes to in order to provide us ample prize pools and excitement in our otherwise mundane lives Bif?

    Ha Ha – oh yah it’s Definitely manipulating at our expense. Like oh it’s the 75th Millionaire Maker contest so we should “arbitrarily “ charge $75 to enter instead of the normal $20.

  • texasboss302

    I’m wishing for bigger GPPs for the Thursday-Monday slates like they had a couple of years ago.

  • JH822547

    Oh man do we really have to wait 5 weeks?

  • Danforth11

    Just a quick reminder to not support the rake at Draftkings. Fantasydraft and Yahoo have not dropped their contests yet but they will most likely be rake free. Don’t just complain about the rake, take a stand.

  • mtdurham

    So last year I came up with this model for Week 1 but it didn’t work..so im trying to work out the kinks

    It’s a lineup for the Week 1 Milly Maker based on The (JuJu) Smiths “How Soon is Now”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9EjE4qm7b8

    I am the son and the heir
    Of a certain Joe Mix-on
    I am the son and heir of Phil Rivers in particular

    [Chorus]
    You shut your mouth
    How can you say I go about things about the wrong way?
    I am human and I need to be loved
    Just like Keenan Al-len

    [Refrain]
    I am the son and the heir
    Of a man named Austin Ek-eler.
    I am the son and heir of nothing in particular.

    [Chorus]
    You shut your mouth!
    How can you say I go about things the wrong way?
    I am human and I need to be loved
    Just like Desean Jack-son…

    [Interlude]
    There’s a club, if you’d like to go
    You could meet somebody who really loves you
    So you go and you stand on your own
    And you play David John-son
    And you go home and you cry and you want to Joseph Ad-dai (does he even still play football?)

    [Chorus]
    You shut your mouth
    How can you say I go about things the wrong way?
    I am human and I need to be loved
    Just like Chris God-win

    When you say “it’s gonna happen now”
    When exactly do you mean?
    See I’ve already waited too long
    And now I’ve rostered Greg Ol-seen…

    [Chorus]
    You shut your mouth
    How can you say I go about things the wrong way?
    I am human and I need to be loved
    Just like this Ode to Beck-ham.

    QB: Phil Rivers
    RB Joe Mixon
    RB:Austin Ekeler
    WR:Odell Beckham
    WR:Keenan Allen
    WR: Chris Godwin
    TE: Greg Olsen
    Flex: David Johnson

    Now I just need to select a Defense….This is where it gets tricky….

    JuJu Smith Schuster is from Long Beach, California which is between Los Angeles AND San Diego so that could be interepreted as one heck of a reason to play the Chargers Defense….but I’m going to read this as a better reason to stack the Chargers offense. Now the Jaguars play a game in London, England every year where the Smiths are from. So I can see how that may be interepreted as Jaguars but they are unplayable vs KC… Im thinking of flipping the script, kinda like The Smiths did in their later works because their early work was a little new wave for me. And playing the opposite defense…

    I really hope all this works out better than Week 1 last year when the Beastie Boys convinced me I HAD THE SKILLS TO PLAY THE BILLS Y’ALL!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUlvZ2RWv0Q

    The Bills lost 47-3 and that lineup did not sniff the cash line. Now with a little more DFS experience I’m all out on Beastie Boys lyrics going forward.

  • realphipps

    Hoping you guys can help me…

    #1 – Is there a source/way to view last year’s weekly contests/winners/lineups? To be more specific, I’m looking for DK and 20 max contests. I’m very interested in seeing how the sharks approach lineup construction in that format.

    #2 – I’m interested in adding a simulator to my model. Is there a source for simming weekly games? Ideally, I’d like to sim each individual game upwards of 100 times, thus rendering Madden a last resort via time constraints. Certainly will not build lineups just on sims, but very interested in applying it to my model.

    Any help/suggestions would be much appreciated.

  • Smallchimp

    @realphipps said...

    #2 – I’m interested in adding a simulator to my model. Is there a source for simming weekly games? Ideally, I’d like to sim each individual game upwards of 100 times, thus rendering Madden a last resort via time constraints. Certainly will not build lineups just on sims, but very interested in applying it to my model.

    It’d be pretty neat to do a balls-to-the-wall NFL simulator, but it seems like a lot of the football data is fragmented. nflscrapr for R has pbp, PFF seems to have some other info, and I’m pretty sure I’ve seen formation use by team>game>quarter>down. It just seems like you’re going to need to do a lot to figure out how to apply situational filters such as the probability a team will run with a given RB using a specific formation on first down in the third quarter when down by 7 against a specific team and what the result will be.

    Or if you don’t want something super in depth, you can probably use nflscrapr’s play by play and keep it as simple as possible.

  • CleverGroom

    There’s like several dozen preseason slates to get through before I’ll be thinking about this one seriously, but here’s a stray notion for your consideration.

    Lions DST.

    The price is right at $2,900 on DK. ARI wants to run about 80 offensive plays per game, which just means more precious opportunities at sacks and takeaways for our DST. DET’s D could actually be quite good, especially after Snacks shored up the run D and they added pieces like Trey Flowers and Mike Daniels. That’s a lot of grown-ass men going up against one of the worst OLs in the league, a first-time NFL HC and playcaller, a novel air raid system that’s reportedly tying the ARI offensive veterans in knots, and a rookie QB in his first start.

    Speaking of Kyler Murray, he might be the best thing about this play. Errybody’s gonna own him at $5,600—especially if he lights up the preseason against vanilla Ds. That means we can A) roster him and Lions DST for a contrarian build that most people won’t have the guts to play, and/or B) roster Lions DST as the leverage play against a sudden Murray implosion. Both paths can work. Lions could get 4 sacks, 2 TOs, a defensive score, and still lose the game 36-20 for all I care.

    In the immortal words of @tashawna10, “OMG let’s goooo Detroit Lions!!!💯👍😜🎊🎉🎇🎆 3rd time in 28 yrs. on your ground 31-zip Green bay!!!💯😎 no win like this since 1970, WHAT, can’t wait 2 see what Matt Patricia has in store 4 next season!!! We hungry come 2 the Lions nest at your home we feed!! On your property.”

  • mtdurham

    @squidkill said...

    Yo who should I be targeting at TE in my season long leagues?

  • BigDaddy326

    Last year I tried too much to outsmart myself and tried being too contrarian and never hit. I basically faded Todd Gurley all year, and the first like 6 weeks of the season it totally burned me. I would always pivot off Gurley, and in theory it was correct because he was like 30%-50% owned in all contests in that time span, but he just lit it up too much and I lost a ton.

    I will probably be sticking to Yahoo Daily only this season if they keep doing No-rake or added prize pool contests. Last year was nuts, they were adding 250k every week to their main event.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler