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  • AVivier

    • Ranked #84

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • AVivier

    • Ranked #84

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Chad Kelly is one snap away from becoming a thing, that’s pretty damn exciting.

  • Hoods From The Wood

    Wow just read some really classy Colt fans booed him as he left the field tonight

  • OttawaCityMadman

    I have a feeling we will see Luck play again. Once he gets his mind and body right he will get the fire back. I will wager for the start of the 2021-22 season…

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @OttawaCityMadman said...

    I have a feeling we will see Luck play again. Once he gets his mind and body right he will get the fire back. I will wager for the start of the 2021-22 season…

    Lol can we play some DFS head 2 head?

  • boilermakerbeef

    What % ownership will Duke Johnson be out now? Assuming he’s starting at RB, and his price tag is $3500 on DK.

  • JustDFSin

    @boilermakerbeef said...

    What % ownership will Duke Johnson be out now? Assuming he’s starting at RB, and his price tag is $3500 on DK.

    He is listed with the Browns and wont get any points for this week. I wonder how many people will play him anyway

  • Smallchimp

    @boilermakerbeef said...

    What % ownership will Duke Johnson be out now? Assuming he’s starting at RB, and his price tag is $3500 on DK.

    I’m sure they’ll bop him up to $5000 by the next main slate. Luckily it isn’t another chalk option we’ll have to deal with for Week 1.

  • Hoods From The Wood

    I feel bad for Lamar Miller. You never know when the next injury is your last injury(i.e. A. Luck) but did Houston’s run game just get better? Not manpower-wise but quality-wise. 3 yrs younger than Miller and a lot less wear and tear on the body. Plus I think he’s just plain better than Miller anyway and could have taken the starter role from him in-season. As for RB depth, I can see Hyde going there when KC trades/cuts him. McGuire’s buried deep on the Jets depth charts, a lot of teams last cuts will be making a trip to Houston to fill their RB room.

  • AVivier

    • Ranked #84

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @boilermakerbeef said...

    What % ownership will Duke Johnson be out now? Assuming he’s starting at RB, and his price tag is $3500 on DK.

    Texans play on Monday night and that slate isn’t out yet. He’s not eligible for any points on the main slate so don’t take him!

  • queensfinest

    which one should i sit week between keryon johnson, fournette and carson?

  • boilermakerbeef

    @AVivier said...

    Texans play on Monday night and that slate isn’t out yet. He’s not eligible for any points on the main slate so don’t take him!

    Didn’t do my homework there. Too bad he isn’t on the main slate. Thanks!

  • Dfspacman

    week 1 lineup construction gonna give me grey hair, will probably just have to play a few lineups

  • BIF

    Won a $333 NFL Wildcat ticket in golf this morning and leading in two other right now – already maxed the $150 3-max; now I just need to figure out a few good lineups for Week 1 to pad the NFL bankroll.

  • monarch

    @BIF said...

    Won a $333 NFL Wildcat ticket in golf this morning and leading in two other right now – already maxed the $150 3-max; now I just need to figure out a few good lineups for Week 1 to pad the NFL bankroll.

    That’s great.

    I’ve been trying to do that with MLB. I’ve got seven milly entries…want to get to 20 then I’ll chase the wildcat.

    They have a 100 dollar SE that looks really good as well

  • BIF

    @monarch said...

    That’s great.

    I’ve been trying to do that with MLB. I’ve got seven milly entries…want to get to 20 then I’ll chase the wildcat.

    They have a 100 dollar SE that looks really good as well

    Yah I got in the guarantee overlay $100 single entry already

  • tmarohl

    @BIF said...

    Won a $333 NFL Wildcat ticket in golf this morning and leading in two other right now – already maxed the $150 3-max; now I just need to figure out a few good lineups for Week 1 to pad the NFL bankroll.

    That is cool. I have 44 entries so far for the FD Sunday Million from playing MLB satty’s.

  • BIF

    @tmarohl said...

    That is cool. I have 44 entries so far for the FD Sunday Million from playing MLB satty’s.

    Nice – I’m up to 10 DK Milly tix and hopefully a few more today in golf

    Probably will only use half of what I win in Week 1 as I like to spread them out a little

  • ssilberman2012

    @sanders_tj said...

    Finally done digging through the data on the FD Sunday Million winning lineups from last year (weeks 1-16). Some very interesting data. What specifically stood out to me was 4 of the 16 weeks, the winning lineup had the QB who was facing the Saints; Fitzpatrick in week 1, Ryan in week 3, Goff in week 9 and Winston in week 14. 11 of the 16 weeks, that particular QB’s team didn’t win their game that week (1 tie and 10 losses). With the exception of “(player-popup #josh-allen)Josh Allen”:/players/josh-allen-328331’s two appearences in weeks 13 and 15, the implied game total was never below 46. And with the exception of Winston’s ownership in week 6 (18.1%), ownership for the winning lineups QB was always single digits (average of 5.8%).

    If you’re strictly a GPP player like myself, the key on FD when it comes to QB’s is to avoid the chalk QB’s. Mahomes never made it into a single Sunday Million 1st place finish last year, nor did Brady or Brees. You apparently need to be contrarian at this position, finding value in drafting a cheaper (average salary of those 16 weeks was $7500 for QB when strictly looking at the 1st place lineup) and more productive QB on FD. It doesn’t mean that this QB will score the most fantasy points at the position that particular week, but it does mean that the money saved in finding the value QB that week is key to rising above the pack when you’re facing a half a million other lineups.

    I used to believe I had an edge two seasons ago when having good success in getting a tight rotation in my player pool at the D and K positions. Going off of last years data, it seems that getting that low owned QB is going to be key to finding GPP success if the rest of your lineup picks are solid.

    RB position is the opposite. Heavy chalk at the RB position was the key to success. 14 of the 16 weeks, a RB was used in the flex spot, with a minimum priced TE being in the flex spot one week, and Antonio Brown being in the flex spot the other week.

    amazing post. thank you

  • ssilberman2012

    @sanders_tj said...

    Couldn’t agree more. Your reasoning is the exact reason why Mixon is a bad play for week 1. Game script matters. If anything from the Bengals is a good play, it’s Boyd and/or Ross.

    Volume is king. Seattle is overrated and depleted on defense and at WR. With a brand new, offensive-minded HC and extremely low ownership, I fail to see how Mixon is a bad GPP play. How are we gonna win by playing Dalvin Cook if everyone else plays him?

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    I am very intrigued in the Seattle / Cin game, this could be a bet high scoring game. You know how competitive Wilson is. If the Bengals come out firing against their soft D, Mixon very well could pay off well. He’s the most talented back in this game and seemingly every person is on Carson but little mention of Mixon

  • monarch

    Vegas really disagrees with the all of that. Bengals implied total down to 16 since it opened at just 17.5. I’m not sure what will happen but Seattle just takes the air out of the football.

    As for offensive minded head coaches. Most are…Jon Gruden is an offensive minded head coach…it really doesn’t mean anything.

    But Mixon is always in play because he does it all so I can never fault anyone for wanting to play him.

  • ssilberman2012

    @monarch said...

    Vegas really disagrees with the all of that. Bengals implied total down to 16 since it opened at just 17.5. I’m not sure what will happen but Seattle just takes the air out of the football.

    As for offensive minded head coaches. Most are…Jon Gruden is an offensive minded head coach…it really doesn’t mean anything.

    But Mixon is always in play because he does it all so I can never fault anyone for wanting to play him.

    All of the uncertainty is why I love Mixon over someone like Fournette for GPPs. I’ll tell you what is certain – KC and JAX have improved Ds this season.

  • squidkill

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    I am very intrigued in the Seattle / Cin game, this could be a bet high scoring game. You know how competitive Wilson is. If the Bengals come out firing against their soft D, Mixon very well could pay off well. He’s the most talented back in this game and seemingly every person is on Carson but little mention of Mixon

    “Bengals come out firing”. Not sure we’ll hear much of that in week 1

  • monarch

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    All of the uncertainty is why I love Mixon over someone like Fournette for GPPs. I’ll tell you what is certain – KC and JAX have improved Ds this season.

    You might be on to something. I see myself just loading up on 6200 to 5600 type running backs instead or Saquon, Zeke and CMC who I think will carry distorted ownership. What I mean by that is I think some of the Mixon, Carson, Chubb etc…will come close to the studs this week and that allows me to get three of them and Julio Jones plus a QB/WR1 stack like Baker/OBJ or Jameis/Godwin.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Vegas has no idea how many points are going to be scored this game. They are simply setting a mark trying to balance the sides. Check on that Monday to see if the Bengals scored 16.

    If you have never researched to see how accurate Vegas is in their marks, which I yet have not, then you have no idea if that implied total of 17 means nothing at all.

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