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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • AVivier

    Ron Rivera: “There’s no doubt in my mind” that Cam Newton will be ready for Week 1.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Leveon Bell has always been touted for his ability to be patient and see the holes in the lines opening up to bring in the big yardage. He no longer has a top 5 O-line, he has a button 5 O-line. Those holes won’t likely come to fruition so often. They have a much much worse QB than Big Ben, and much worse receiving talent. A new team who is installing a new offense with their new coach. He also hasn’t played in a long time. There’s a few reasons he is priced down a bit.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    For Todd Gurley, he is priced down because the Rams have said they are going to give Henderson 12-15 touches a game, a significant amount.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @sanders_tj said...

    There’s way too much Brissett talk in here. For QB’s, there are five main stats that are historically the most accurate when it comes to weekly DFS. TD’s per passing attempt, Fantasy Points per passing attempt, Fantasy points per game, Passing Yards per game and Fantasy Points per snap. For Brissett, I took his stats from 2017 since he played all 16 games for the Colts that year.

    If you rank all of the week 1 starters in the main slate against each other (24 QB’s), here is where Brissett ranks: 23rd, 21st, 23rd, 21st and 22nd. I’ve noticed that there is a lot of talk around Brissett’s run game on other forums online as an added threat. He averaged 16.25 yards per game in 2017. That’s hardly enough extra fantasy points to consider it a threat. If he had double that amount where he’d be approaching 40 yards, then I can MAYBE see him as a POSSIBLE play since 40 yards is the same as one passing TD. The average winning lineup’s QB last year averaged over 30 points on FD (30.74 to be exact). Brissett isn’t getting you 30 points against any team, let alone the Chargers. The Chargers had the 8th ranked total DVOA in 2018 and were ranked 10th in DVOA against the pass.

    If anything, people should consider using the Chargers defense with Luck being out, rather than looking to add Brissett to their player pool. Brissett should be a complete auto-fade for week 1. There isn’t a single stat or matchup that looks to be in his favor against the Chargers in week 1.

    Brisset came into a terrible O-line that had Andrew Luck sacked 40 times the previous year, likely a big factor in his retirement. Things have changed so you’ve got to expect people to give him a chance at that low price

  • sanders_tj

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    , he has a button 5 O-lin

    I would argue that the Jags, Vikings, Texans, Seahawks, Redskins, Cards, Bucs, Bills, Bengals and Dolphins all have worse O-lines that the Jets. I’d rank the Jets somewhere in the middle of the pack. Interestingly, the Jets ranked either 6th to 7th last year in open field yards. If Bell get’s holes, which the Jets seem to be good at providing, he’s likely to be the Bell of yesteryear. Sign me up.

    Think about last year how highly priced Gurley was. Then think two years back how highly priced Bell was. I think it’s crazy for these two to be priced where they are. I’ll definitely be over the field for both of them week 1 baring some talk of injuries or reduced workload. Their pricing will only get higher as the season rolls along.

  • sanders_tj

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    For Todd Gurley, he is priced down because the Rams have said they are going to give Henderson 12-15 touches a game, a significant amount.

    The same thing was said about Christian McCaffrey having a reduced workload at the start of last season by allowing CJ Anderson to get all the goal-line carries and 3rd down work. It never materialized and CMC had a monster year. Until the data says otherwise, Gurley is a workhorse back and should be treated as such.

  • dbullsfan

    To put into perspective the 2017 season, at this point Jacoby Brissett was still a Patriot, he didn’t get traded to the Colts until right before the season. In 2017 the Colts had arguably the worst line in football and now they have one of the best. Jacoby has been running the first team offense all offseason long. I’m not saying he is gonna be great and he probably doesn’t have the upside even at his price with value elsewhere to win a gpp. That being said comparing 2017 to now is like apples to oranges.

  • BIF

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    12 team/12 roundish? Drafting 1st tomorrow night. I have The Lord Of Stiffarm as my #9 TE

    10 guys – 14 rounds
    I took him as 8th TE

  • BIF

    @Ace15 said...

    Someone talk me off of Corey Davis, 4900 huge upside. Fill in rest of LU with Chalk value RB’s…and profit? Feel like he’s the type of play that will win someone a GPP.

    Mariota is his QB

    Check out Mariota’s stats this week vs Pitt – zero fantasy points Zero plus a couple sacks allowed and a safety

    Davis will only be a spot start for me a couple times this year as will put up multiple low single digit FP games like 2-29-0

  • squidkill

    BIF – if you have time – please post entire draft and breakdown each pick and what led you to that decision- ill hang up and listen- Thanks

  • BIF

    @squidkill said...

    BIF – if you have time – please post entire draft and breakdown each pick and what led you to that decision- ill hang up and listen- Thanks

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @squidkill said...

    the band is back together!! Football is baaaaack

  • sanders_tj

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    Brisset came into a terrible O-line that had Andrew Luck sacked 40 times the previous year, likely a big factor in his retirement. Things have changed so you’ve got to expect people to give him a chance at that low price

    The Colts have arguably the best offensive line in football. They ranked at the top or near the top in many offensive line metrics, including adjusted line yards and other important statistics. That was with Luck behind center. Both your rushing game and your passing game depend on good your QB is. Luck and Brissett aren’t even in the same galaxy.

    Game script also matters. The Colts will rarely have a lead where they will be able to pound the ball with the running game. They will likely be trailing for most of the year and Brissett will be replied upon to try and play catchup.

    Again, Brissett’s price isn’t some epic pricing error. If you go back to his 2017 pricing, he averaged $5.0k for his salary throughout the year. There was talk before the main slate opened up that Luck might not fully be healthy by week 1. Even if Brissett was named the starter before hand, he’d still wouldn’t be over $5k. Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the next two highest priced QB’s at $4.9k on DK. Fitzpatrick averaged more than 100 extra passing yards PER GAME than Brissett. Keenum averaged 50 extra passing yards per game than Brissett.

    In week 2, Brissett will still be amongst the cheapest QB’s, because that’s where the data shows him needing to be priced. Raw fantasy points scored is a real thing. Yes, you can add in some high priced studs with Brissett as your QB. But jamming in a bunch of highly touted names and then adding in a scrub doesn’t normally translate into DFS success.

    As I posted earlier in this thread, chalk QB’s being in winning lineups aren’t a thing if your hope is to be at the top of a leaderboard of a GPP. All relevant data shows him being a very poor play. And if he’s going to be a popular play, that’s even more reason to fade him.

  • AVivier

    Bill O’Brien says he’s “not hopeful” Keke Coutee will be back for Week 1. “But stranger things have happened.”

  • QualityPlayer

    im 99 percent sure Andrew Luck will return to football… to the XFL. His dad is the commishioner and Andrew retired on Vince McMahon’s birthday. He will probably be a member of the Houston Roughnecks as a masonic ritual

  • dbullsfan

    As far as QBs are concerned for week 1 I really like Cam, I feel like he is gonna get very low ownership and has just as much upside as anyone on the slate. Cam/CMC/WR and bringing it back with 2 of the Rams guys is my favorite stack of the week

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    I agree they have one of the best now. When he previously came in to play for them, they had one of the worst. And as someone else said above, he was brand new to the team. There is no telling how he may perform now with the team that was touted to be the best of 2019 in the offseason. You can be the guy who waits to see how things go or the one to capitalize. I don’t think he will have a crazy high ownership no matter what so, having some shares of some Brisset isn’t the worst thing in the world. He gives a very nice salary relief.

    I just can’t back you bashing a young QB who has never started, going into a new team and having to take over suddenly with a horrible line in front of you to protect you while you try to build chemistry with receivers and learn the playbook mid year

  • Tabes

    @BIF said...

    @Ace15 said…

    Mariota is his QB

    Check out Mariota’s stats this week vs Pitt – zero fantasy points Zero plus a couple sacks allowed and a safety

    Davis will only be a spot start for me a couple times this year as will put up multiple low single digit FP games like 2-29-0

    I wouldn’t go off of 1 preseason game where he played 2 series, it was raining and the o-line was shit but…..

    unknown play caller
    o line has looked terrible without lewan
    more mouths to feed and delanie will still be the safety net
    slow pace of play
    run first team

    die hard titans fan here but they have to be one of the worst teams for fantasy purposes minus henry when the line gets it’s shit together

  • QualityPlayer

    how but Brees/Thomas/Cook and run it back with Nuk and Duke? im liking that

  • QualityPlayer

    @dbullsfan said...

    Cam/CMC/WR and bringing it back with 2 of the Rams guys is my favorite stack of the week

    meant to quote this

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @Tabes said...

    die hard titans fan here

  • Tabes

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    @Tabes said…

    i was born this way…

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @QualityPlayer said...

    how but Brees/Thomas/Cook and run it back with Nuk and Duke? im liking that

    I guess after 9/2 roster adjustments, DK will put Duke on Texan page. I wonder if his price gets adjusted or they keep it a chalky 3.5K

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    I guess after 9/2 roster adjustments, DK will put Duke on Texan page. I wonder if his price gets adjusted or they keep it a chalky 3.5K

    I believe since he’s highlighted in red on Brown page his points won’t count?

  • Hoods From The Wood

    @Tabes said...

    i was born this way…

    I hear you lol, we all pay for the sins of our parents. My Mom bought me a football helmet wayyyyyyyyyyyyy back in 1969 and I’ve been a fan since

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