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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • sanders_tj

    The model that I use week to week during the NFL season has Russell Wilson ranked #1 for QB’s, and Chris Carson ranked #2 for RB’s. My model is based off of many things, including Vegas lines, individual matchups, usage, etc.

    Chris Carson is the most interesting to me. Bengals were ranked 26th against the run (run DVOA) last season. Carson had 9 rushing TD’s in the red zone behind only Gurley and Henry. Carson also ranked 3rd in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line behind only Gurley and Barkley.

    With Seattle currently being a 9.5 favorite at home gotta think the combo of Carson/Penny accounts for at least 2 TD’s. Hoping Penny doesn’t swipe a TD from Carson though as I am going to be well over the field with Carson Week 1. Also helps that there are 14 running back’s priced ahead of him, too.

    Overall, I see a lot of Wilson/Carson combos making it into my lineups week 1!

  • JH822547

    Jacoby Brisset 4.4K let’s go!

  • TopDawgs07

    Last season it took me too long to figure out how to play the season. I started slow after Week 1, by the time I found my groove, a lot of the easy money was gone. This year, I’m hoping for a faster start!

  • CleverGroom

    @sanders_tj said...

    With Seattle currently being a 9.5 favorite at home gotta think the combo of Carson/Penny accounts for at least 2 TD’s. Hoping Penny doesn’t swipe a TD from Carson though as I am going to be well over the field with Carson Week 1. Also helps that there are 14 running back’s priced ahead of him, too.

    I’ve been firmly on the Carson side of the Chris Carson vs. Rashaad Penny debate, because Pete Carroll has been firmly on the Carson side, and Pete’s is the only voice that matters on that team.

    However, consider this recent camp report.

    Penny as the two-minute back?

    Collier was injured near the end of practice while the team was working on its two-minute drill.

    The most interesting aspect of that drill until then might have been that Rashaad Penny was the starting tailback with the No. 1 offense.

    Penny is expected to rotate in with starting tailback Chris Carson in early down situations in some fashion, having so far ranked as one of the more impressive players in camp.

    But using him as the two-minute back could be another way to get him on the field significantly.

    That’s a role that was filled last year primarily by Mike Davis, who signed as a free agent with the Bears.

    Bob’s absolutely right: the two-minute back is a huge role in this offense, because it’s about the only time Russ routinely passes to his RBs. There was at least one series I remember off the top of my head from last year where it was like five passes to Mike Davis in a series of six plays. And if that puts you on the goal line, chances are you aren’t subbing out for Carson unless perhaps the clock stops.

    Definitely a situation to monitor through camp and preseason.

    ETA: FWIW, I think it’s pretty reasonable to draft both Carson and Penny in season-long. You could plausibly start both of them in a deeper league and lock in at least 30-40 weekly touches while they’re healthy. If one of them goes down, the other guy could easily be getting 30 touches per game on his own.

  • Playtaw1n

    @CleverGroom said...

    There’s like several dozen preseason slates to get through before I’ll be thinking about this one seriously, but here’s a stray notion for your consideration.

    Lions DST.

    The price is right at $2,900 on DK. ARI wants to run about 80 offensive plays per game, which just means more precious opportunities at sacks and takeaways for our DST. DET’s D could actually be quite good, especially after Snacks shored up the run D and they added pieces like Trey Flowers and Mike Daniels. That’s a lot of grown-ass men going up against one of the worst OLs in the league, a first-time NFL HC and playcaller, a novel air raid system that’s reportedly tying the ARI offensive veterans in knots, and a rookie QB in his first start.

    Speaking of Kyler Murray, he might be the best thing about this play. Errybody’s gonna own him at $5,600—especially if he lights up the preseason against vanilla Ds. That means we can A) roster him and Lions DST for a contrarian build that most people won’t have the guts to play, and/or B) roster Lions DST as the leverage play against a sudden Murray implosion. Both paths can work. Lions could get 4 sacks, 2 TOs, a defensive score, and still lose the game 36-20 for all I care.

    In the immortal words of @tashawna10, “OMG let’s goooo Detroit Lions!!!💯👍😜🎊🎉🎇🎆 3rd time in 28 yrs. on your ground 31-zip Green bay!!!💯😎 no win like this since 1970, WHAT, can’t wait 2 see what Matt Patricia has in store 4 next season!!! We hungry come 2 the Lions nest at your home we feed!! On your property.”

    Like this a lot. Dashawn hand graded out exceptionally high with pff as well on their Dline. I think I’ll be fading Murray though. Panthers defense appeals to me the most, can’t believe they got priced at 2100….unbelievably loaded dline going against a crippled rams interior offensive line.

    Falcons/Vikings has jumped out to me as the being the only dome game on the main slate. The Vikings defense is on an obvious decline and it looks like a really good game stack.

    Joe Mixon pops off the screen to me the most probably. Should see insane volume without A.J. green and going against a Seattle defense that was 23rd last year in adj line yards at 4.55 ypc, lost frank clark and will be without reed at dt who’s been huge for their run defense last two seasons

  • CleverGroom

    @Playtaw1n said...

    Like this a lot. Dashawn hand graded out exceptionally high with pff as well on their Dline. I think I’ll be fading Murray though. Panthers defense appeals to me the most, can’t believe they got priced at 2100….unbelievably loaded dline going against a crippled rams interior offensive line.

    Totally agree with all of this too. Jared Goff is the quintessential QB who flourishes within structure and perishes without it. I’m not saying I think the Rams are a losing team this year, but if they are, it’ll be because of a cocktail of OL troubles, Goff buckling under pressure, and Gurley missing reps. Always enjoy getting a bargain on CAR DST in a good spot at home.

    Falcons stack could be interesting. Their OL moves should help.

    Mixon I’m not as sure about. We’ll see more in the preseason, but if you think the Rams OL is bad, I’ll raise you the Bengals. It’s going to be very hard for me to buy pieces of that O if it’s as bad as I fear and AJG is nowhere to be seen. They simply won’t score.

  • Playtaw1n

    I don’t disagree that the bengals offensive line is atrocious, I just think fading Seattle’s run defense is a spot to get ahead of the field on while reed is out, he’s only missed one game the last two years for them. I know you’re a seahawk fan and am curious how you view their defense this year. IMO I think they’re gonna to have to be a much more aggressive offense to compensate for the defense….. I know I know….schottenheimer but it’s gotta change eventually right lol?

    We know the bengals defense is awful…idk about shootout but there could be pieces to be had at low ownership here.

    I think there will be a lot of ownership tied into the jags and Bucs games….I may be grasping at straws here but I’m going to do some research on player volume/snap counts in early season high temperature game. At the moment I have an odd theory that will likely reduce my ownership on those games.

  • CleverGroom

    @Playtaw1n said...

    I don’t disagree that the bengals offensive line is atrocious, I just think fading Seattle’s run defense is a spot to get ahead of the field on while reed is out, he’s only missed one game the last two years for them. I know you’re a seahawk fan and am curious how you view their defense this year. IMO I think they’re gonna to have to be a much more aggressive offense to compensate for the defense….. I know I know….schottenheimer but it’s gotta change eventually right lol?

    We know the bengals defense is awful…idk about shootout but there could be pieces to be had at low ownership here.

    I agree that the D will struggle. We’re basically counting on Ziggy Ansah to be our only pass-rusher at this point. We’ve got LBs, some potentially underrated DBs, and…after that it’s mighty thin. You could even add that it’s Andy Dalton against an uncommon opponent, since that kinda sorta seems to be a thing. I actually almost did a post talking up Dalton till I started thinking about it and AJG went down. I just don’t see it ending well for CIN.

    The thing that I come back to in thinking about this game is the disparity in coaching. Schotty sucks, but Pete doesn’t. Zac Taylor was barely able to hire a staff at all. Those guys are the absolute dregs of the dregs. I don’t trust them any further than I could throw them.

    My suspicion is that coaching matters a lot in a spot like this, and that Seattle’s home field advantage still counts for a lot too.

    Of course, Mixon can still do well. He’ll probably be a good contrarian option. You’re just going to be in a tight spot if it turns out they can’t get into the red zone and the coachspeak about Gio having more of a role in the passing game was real.

    As for Schotty and Seattle’s O, hell…thing is that Russ can bail him out of a lot of atrocious play-calling by hitting those glorious deep shots, especially with Tyler Lockett running out of Doug’s old slot position. I just don’t see him sweating it unless Dalton leads multiple, quick-hitting scoring drives in Q1. I’m not gonna hold my breath, under the circumstances.

  • Playtaw1n

    No doubt, always appreciate your opinion. Lockett in the slot should keep him away from William Jackson enough to warrant consideration and ownership should be very low on him with the price tag. I want to be on the Tyler Lockett 35 point game so bad lol….I know it’s coming this year

  • 808state

    @CleverGroom said...

    Totally agree with all of this too. Jared Goff is the quintessential QB who flourishes within structure and perishes without it. I’m not saying I think the Rams are a losing team this year, but if they are, it’ll be because of a cocktail of OL troubles, Goff buckling under pressure, and Gurley missing reps. Always enjoy getting a bargain on CAR DST in a good spot at home.

    Falcons stack could be interesting. Their OL moves should help.

    Mixon I’m not as sure about. We’ll see more in the preseason, but if you think the Rams OL is bad, I’ll raise you the Bengals. It’s going to be very hard for me to buy pieces of that O if it’s as bad as I fear and AJG is nowhere to be seen. They simply won’t score.

    i think the more likely scenario is they go into Carolina and throw the ball all over because Carolina can’t stop anything through the air. How are they going to cover Kupp, Woods, and Cooks? Plus Gurley will likely be on the field more in pass protection.

  • squidkill

    @mtdurham said...

    Yo who should I be targeting at TE in my season long leagues?

    Season long question:

    Sir this is a Wendy’s

  • NDNole

    Welcome back the best time of the year! Im looking closely at a lions stack. So many options I think they will be overlooked, likely justifiably so. But if this game gets pass happy I think it could be a gem.

  • AVivier

    The MillyMaker and other contests are now posted. 5 mil guarantee for the MM, same as last year.

  • AVivier

    The $100 on DK has a $25k guarantee overlay in it, that’s pretty cool. ETA: The $1,000 tournament has guaranteed overlay too.

  • mtdurham

    @BigDaddy326 said...

    Last year I tried too much to outsmart myself and tried being too contrarian and never hit. I basically faded Todd Gurley all year, and the first like 6 weeks of the season it totally burned me. I would always pivot off Gurley, and in theory it was correct because he was like 30%-50% owned in all contests in that time span, but he just lit it up too much and I lost a ton.

    I will probably be sticking to Yahoo Daily only this season if they keep doing No-rake or added prize pool contests. Last year was nuts, they were adding 250k every week to their main event.

    yeah there should be a support group for those of us who faded Gurley last year…. i cant tell you how many times i was hammered by like 4 pm and fell asleep for a quick nap only to wake up in the 3rd quarter of the late games and see my winnings had collapsed

  • mtdurham

    @808state said...

    i think the more likely scenario is they go into Carolina and throw the ball all over because Carolina can’t stop anything through the air. How are they going to cover Kupp, Woods, and Cooks? Plus Gurley will likely be on the field more in pass protection.

    you think Car Defense is gonna be bad this year?

    They revamped the pass rush completely… should get a lot of pressure on QB’s… .then Kuechly is basically a God in the passing game. And our secondary of Donte Jackson, James Bradberry, Eric Reed, and Tre Boston is pretty solid IMO.

    Goff was pretty good last year before Kupp went down. After that he kinda sucked. Not sure if that was the only reason or if Goff is just overrated. Either way will not be using him against the new Sex Panther Defense.

  • Csquared1987

    I REALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYY hope FanDuel does a redeposit bonus again this season, like they did last season for Tier 1 players. That was sweet!

  • mtdurham

    @sanders_tj said...

    The model that I use week to week during the NFL season has Russell Wilson ranked #1 for QB’s, and Chris Carson ranked #2 for RB’s. My model is based off of many things, including Vegas lines, individual matchups, usage, etc.

    Chris Carson is the most interesting to me. Bengals were ranked 26th against the run (run DVOA) last season. Carson had 9 rushing TD’s in the red zone behind only Gurley and Henry. Carson also ranked 3rd in rush attempts inside the 5-yard line behind only Gurley and Barkley.

    With Seattle currently being a 9.5 favorite at home gotta think the combo of Carson/Penny accounts for at least 2 TD’s. Hoping Penny doesn’t swipe a TD from Carson though as I am going to be well over the field with Carson Week 1. Also helps that there are 14 running back’s priced ahead of him, too.

    Overall, I see a lot of Wilson/Carson combos making it into my lineups week 1!

    I feel like Wilson/Carson would be a tough combo to hit on… not a fan of the QB/RB duo with a non-pass catcher….

  • CleverGroom

    @mtdurham said...

    I feel like Wilson/Carson would be a tough combo to hit on… not a fan of the QB/RB duo with a non-pass catcher….

    Somewhat apropos of this, Warren Sharp offers these thoughts on DAL’s murky QB/RB situation:

    New OC: Dallas may use Dak as a runner
    DAL= 4th worst in 2018 red zone success rate
    • Zeke = 25/35 RB (47% success)

    But…

    • #1 rusher (of 56 w 15+ att) was Dak: – 74% success rate on 23 att
    • Last 3 yrs, Dak’s 74% RZ success is #1 of 129 rushers

    Dak Prescott is one of those guys who could go from a back-end QB1 to a top-5 player at the position this year. His OL should be revitalized, he added Amari Cooper and already showed chemistry with him, Michael Gallup could take a second-year leap, Kellen Moore is taking over for Scott Linehan’s run-on-1st nonsense, the D is going to hook them up with ToP and field position, and who knows? Missing some time with Zeke could actually be a good thing for Dak if it means more rushing TDs and a more dynamic short passing game with backs like Darius Jackson and Tony Pollard.

  • thedkexperience

    @mtdurham said...

    Here I’ll start…..

    Here are some basic principles….. I didnt play much Single Entry or 3-max last year i focused mostly on 20-max and 150-max….

    NFL is like Marble Madness

    EVERYTHING you know is wrong.

    A LOT of touts available on the internet always talk backwards DFS when it comes to the NFL…. they say stuff like “If you’re only playing one entry you gotta play Patrick Mahomes or “If you’re playing a bunch of lineups you can afford to take some chances on _____________ (name that crappy QB)”

    Well thats opposite….

    Think about it… if you’re playing single entry…. what’s Pat Mahomes most likeliest outcome…. like 25 FPS for $6,000 at 30% ownership? Well if that happens #1 you probably aren’t gonna win the GPP… and #2 you might not even cash….. If you get the most likeliest outcome… if he absolutely crushes congrats you might cash but you still prob wont win that GPP….

    The time to take an overweight/underweight stand on Mahomes is in 150-max or 20 max GPP…… not in Single Entry… In SIngle entry why not play that pretty boy in Chicago who can barely throw a spiral but might get 5 TD’s off of shovel passes and glorified laterals in that fancy pants offense?

    In GPP playing that guy might cash a lineup…. but in Single Entry that guy might Deliver you from Evil…

    That said……. Dont play expensive QB’s… they are Fool’s Errand for guys who don’t have time to research, have no clue what they are doing, and aren’t confident enough to select a roster like a man… they simply don’t have the upside to justify using them. If you’re scared get a dog. Don’t play NFL DFS. Dogs are cheaper.

    Last year I had my most success in weeks 1 to 4 based mostly upon playing Luck or Watson coming off injuries at deflated prices. Guys who would – for lack of a better term – generally be rated in 90s in Madden getting priced like they forgot how to play football are my go to QBs early in the season.

    The first guy who jumped out at me is Cousins. Dak and Fitzmagic are high on the list as well.

  • Csquared1987

    I can’t wait until Fanduel’s pricing is released so I can figure out which site I will be playing heavy on. Just glancing at DK pricing I think i’m ALL IN on Jimmy G vs. Bucs

  • CleverGroom

    @thedkexperience said...

    Last year I had my most success in weeks 1 to 4 based mostly upon playing Luck or Watson coming off injuries at deflated prices. Guys who would – for lack of a better term – generally be rated in 90s in Madden getting priced like they forgot how to play football are my go to QBs early in the season.

    The first guy who jumped out at me is Cousins. Dak and Fitzmagic are high on the list as well.

    I’m concerned about Cousins’s offense. They fire guys in MIN for not running the ball two plays out of every three.

    Fitzmagic is life, though, and I’m already on record as a Dak booster. Interesting Week 1 matchups for them. I’ll actually like Dak more if Zeke is still out. Fitzy might not have much to fear in terms of pass rush from BAL. They lost a lot of talent in that regard.

    Honestly, if we’re talking about mispriced, underowned guys coming into the season, Josh Allen is probably the most glaring to me. Dude was a total hoss from Week 12 on last year, he finished the season with a 41.5 DKFP game, things have only gotten better for him and his offense in the offseason, he’s priced at $5,600, and nobody’s gonna play him even so.

    It’s true that Allen’s a road dog in a tiny total. It’s also true that NYJ’s CBs are trash. I’d worry a bit that Gase’s slow pace-of-play will hurt him, but I’m not sure he hasn’t been flopping because he knew his post-Peyton teams didn’t have enough offensive firepower to put away Alabama. Something weird like an Allen, John Brown, Robby Anderson game stack free up cap, get you off the chalk, and crush a GPP if it all breaks your way.

  • thedkexperience

    100% truth about Josh Allen. Somewhere in the first 3 weeks he’ll be the QB on a major GPP winner. My issue is that I don’t trust anyone else in that offense beyond a pure dart throw. A naked Allen 40 burger though … yeah … I could see that for sure. Good info as always CG!

  • CleverGroom

    @thedkexperience said...

    100% truth about Josh Allen. Somewhere in the first 3 weeks he’ll be the QB on a major GPP winner. My issue is that I don’t trust anyone else in that offense beyond a pure dart throw. A naked Allen 40 burger though … yeah … I could see that for sure. Good info as always CG!

    Robert Foster had over 100 yards against the Jets twice last year. True story. He’s apparently been running with the second team these days, but we’ll see. Zay Jones didn’t have 100 yards against the Jets, I can promise you that.

    While we’re on the topic of bargain-basement WRs, D.J. Chark has been buzzy in camp. $3,300 and hosting the Chiefs in Week 1. Would be swell if he took that second-year leap right out of the gate. Stack him with Nick Foles for the juicy QB correlation (if you think Mahomes will score, logically it follows that Foles will too) and run it back with Travis Kelce or even Tyreek Hill, because I dunno, hail Satan or something.

  • bscott734

    For the FanDuel satellite contests going on right now, is the NFL Thursday Million contest usually a single game Thursday contest or a Thursday-Monday contest?

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