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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • CleverGroom

    @AVivier said...

    Looks like Clowney to Seattle. Poor Andy Dalton.

  • CleverGroom

    @AVivier said...

    Guys, Zeke is playing. Pollard is no longer playable. Schefter doesn’t get stuff wrong.

    I wouldn’t think Zeke’s a lock to play his full compliment of snaps after signing this weekend. If he dresses, Pollard’s a stay-away for sure. Wouldn’t want to play Zeke either.

    The move would be to try and get Zeke at low ownership as a home favorite in GPP and hope for something magical, but that’s not actually where he excels. Zeke’s always had his spike weeks mostly on the road (and I think as a dog—could be wrong there). Just a backfield to avoid if he sticks his beak in, IMO.

  • CleverGroom

    @sox9 said...

    CG, love your well-thought out posts and detailed analysis. Agree on Pollard. Curious if you have any thoughts on the first game of the season CHI vs. GB? Or anyone else that wants to chime in? I can’t remember all the GB cheeseheads on this forum, but I know there are a couple as well as a couple Bears fans.

    I won’t be playing that game or looking closely at it. Mostly just eager to see what Black Phillip and Ole Sad Eyes have cooked up for us after last year’s instant classic of the dark arts.

    The two biggest questions I have about these teams are A) who was right in the MVS vs. G-Mo wars of 2019—will the answer be “nobody” and Davante Adams just gets 15 targets a game?—and B) how do the Bears cope without Fangio?

    Color me skeptical that Pagano can maintain CHI’s historic performance from last season. Even stellar DCs with continuity year-to-year have trouble doing it. It’s great that they returned their stud players, but Fangio’s got a very strong case for sole possession of DC1 league-wide. Pagano’s got more talent to work with than ever before. Hasn’t had much or done much with it before now, so it’s an interesting test case.

    I’m a big Allen Robinson partisan once again. He’s gonna slay this year. Could come out of the especially gate strong if Kevin King’s still nursing that hamstring.

  • CleverGroom

    @AVivier said...

    Baltimore DST and Seattle DST both became monsters for week 1 today.

    Ryan Fitzpatrick without Laremy Tunsil at LT…

  • js5734

    Is it crazy to play a Foles fournette and Dede stack?

  • wolfshield

    @js5734 said...

    Is it crazy to play a Foles fournette and Dede stack?

    Wow thats odd I literally just built one before reading this.

  • Joeyrockland1

    Any thoughts on Randall Cobb ..

  • Playtaw1n

    Albert Wilson probably good for 10 targets here. No tavon young for Baltimore either.

  • CleverGroom

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Methinks Clowney is that SPARQ athlete that could step right in and make a difference. And it is Cincinnati. At the 12th man

    But don’t forget Andy Dalton vs. Unfamiliar Opponents! Right?

    Right?

    Yeah, I mean…I’m actually worried a lot less about getting Clowney into the system than I am about Clowney always starting slow, Jarran Reed suspended, and Ziggy Ansah hurt in his…everything. SEA still has an interesting front seven with L.J. Collier, Poona Ford, K.J. Wright, and the best damn middle linebacker in football. It’s not perfect, though. It’ll get better, barring losses through injury. They could be an absolute menace later in the season.

    But yeah, CIN’s OL is trash. They’ve got a first-time HC who’s called plays for five career NFL games and averaged 17 points a go. The rest of their coaching staff is comprised of guys who would’ve happily taken more junior jobs on any other team if they’d had any offers. Their OL coach is Jim Turner, notorious for his participation in the MIA OL bullying scandal, as well as a subsequent misogyny incident. He coached the Fins to a league-leading 58 sacks (the second-highest season total for any currently active QB) allowed on Ryan Tannehill in 2013.

    Anyway, there are few defenses that are worth playing strictly on their own merits (the few exceptions would include the 2017 Jaguars or 2018 Bears). Instead, we look for massive favorites and/or teams playing terrible offenses. SEA is the largest week 1 favorite at 9.5 points, and CIN without AJG undoubtedly qualifies as terrible on paper. I’d say MIA is still worse—their OL has gotta be stone worst in the NFL without Tunsil, right?—but honestly BAL’s pass rush doesn’t look any better than SEA’s on paper, and they’re on the road instead of hosting a game at CenturyLink.

    SEA and BAL DSTs will be chalk and they damn sure should be.

    If you’re trying to get off the chalk—and I don’t blame you one bit in GPPs, given variance at the position—I’m still especially liking CAR at a steep discount hosting the depleted LAR line and boasting an improved pass rush, or DET in a situation that ticks any number of boxes (opp. snap count, opp. pass att., rookie play-caller, rookie QB, terrible OL, -2.5 road favorite, &c.).

    CLE is also interesting, particularly given that Taylor Lewan is suspended.

    I don’t especially want to pick on IND with Jake Brisket’s robust OL and LAC’s ambivalent home-field advantage, though I imagine that may be popular.

  • CleverGroom

    @js5734 said...

    Is it crazy to play a Foles fournette and Dede stack?

    You play enough LUs, and I think you’d be crazy to not play that stack. Use those JAX discounts to run it back with a Chief.

  • CleverGroom

    @joe123 said...

    like albert wilson and parker now for the fins. fitz has to throw the ball to someone once they are down double digits

    I think I’d concede that the Dolphins’ healthiest QB will have to throw the ball in that game, yes.

    I’m not sure anybody will be catching them, necessarily.

  • AVivier

    @CleverGroom said...

    I wouldn’t think Zeke’s a lock to play his full compliment of snaps after signing this weekend. If he dresses, Pollard’s a stay-away for sure. Wouldn’t want to play Zeke either.

    The move would be to try and get Zeke at low ownership as a home favorite in GPP and hope for something magical, but that’s not actually where he excels. Zeke’s always had his spike weeks mostly on the road (and I think as a dog—could be wrong there). Just a backfield to avoid if he sticks his beak in, IMO.

    I’d be rather shocked if Zeke isn’t signed tomorrow and their stated deadline for Zeke playing is to be signed by Wednesday. Besides Schefter’s comment (he doesn’t get this stuff wrong), Dallas News corroborated it. Maybe more importantly, they cut most their RBs today (2 RBs and 1 FB are all left on the 53). So Zeke’s almost certainly playing in my mind, and he’ll be the starter. Their snap split will pbly a mystery until it happens, but I don’t see a scenario that would be good enough for Pollard. It is possible Zeke goes right back to his workhorse role, but I agree I think Pollard likely takes a few to hurt Zeke.

  • Joeyrockland1

    Why even play Pollard w so many underpriced players in week 1?

  • squidkill

    anyone avoiding the big 3 in cash entirely ? Saquan/CMC/Elliott assuming a fullish workload? or pivoting down to mid ties Carson/Cook/Fournette/Kerryon? or a mix- I think I’m leaning CMC/COOK/CARSON

  • keephustlincuz

    I like all the mid ties you listed. If you use them you can still get some good wr.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @CleverGroom said...

    But yeah, CIN’s OL is trash. They’ve got a first-time HC who’s called plays for five career NFL games and averaged 17 points a go. The rest of their coaching staff is comprised of guys who would’ve happily taken more junior jobs on any other team if they’d had any offers. Their OL coach is Jim Turner, notorious for his participation in the MIA OL bullying scandal, as well as a subsequent misogyny incident. He coached the Fins to a league-leading 58 sacks (the second-highest season total for any currently active QB) allowed on Ryan Tannehill in 2013.

    Spot on as usual. Not sure what Dalton vs unfamiliar opponents #‘s are but if you brought it up it’s relevant.

    But I’m still gonna go out on a limb and project Clowney for 2.5 sacks. Out of the Seahawks 23 my model keeps spitting out.

    I’m not worried about having some chalk in my LU. Soft pricing= lotta choices= lotta ways to differentiate? Especially if that chalk hits. I actually fear for Dalton’s safety with that OL.

    If you’re gonna play chalk, is there a “best position” to pick?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Joeyrockland1 said...

    Why even play Pollard w so many underpriced players in week 1?

    Pollard is slowly becoming unplayable vs any priced player. The Pollard train has left the station

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @squidkill said...

    anyone avoiding the big 3 in cash entirely ? Saquan/CMC/Elliott assuming a fullish workload? or pivoting down to mid ties Carson/Cook/Fournette/Kerryon? or a mix- I think I’m leaning CMC/COOK/CARSON

    Hard to play Zeke even if he signs in 10 minutes because of workload concerns. I hear the jerk beef and mai-tais are delicious in Cabo this time of year. Saquon poor Saquon. Eli.
    That leaves CMC. BOOM

  • JTAx33

    @Joeyrockland1 said...

    Why even play Pollard w so many underpriced players in week 1?

    Because if Zeke sits he’s the best play on the board.

  • Joeyrockland1

    Even in cash games ?

  • Joeyrockland1

    Even in cash games ? I’m thinking I can play 3 studs w many discounted options at QB

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Joeyrockland1 said...

    Even in cash games ?

    Especially

  • thatkid500

    @CleverGroom said...

    I think I’d concede that the Dolphins’ healthiest QB will have to throw the ball in that game, yes.

    I’m not sure anybody will be catching them, necessarily.

    Other than the Ravens D, no nobody will catch anything

  • JTAx33

    @Joeyrockland1 said...

    Even in cash games ?

    Fading him in cash game is suicide

  • AVivier

    @CleverGroom said...

    Ryan Fitzpatrick without Laremy Tunsil at LT…

    Just a couple months ago they had just drafted a stud offensive lineman, had their stud WR coming back and an optimism of fresh faces to give this team a chance. Fast forward, their draft pick is out for the year, their star WR is out for a month and they get to fly coast to coast to face the team that just added Clowney to their front. Unfortunate chain of events for Andy.

    Quoted the wrong reply, oh well.

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