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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • monarch

    CG-good counter on Boyd. I will still be on him but not a core piece. I like him and that range in general with Lockett and Landry. I cant put Godwin on every single LU even if it feels so right.

  • hautalak

    Read another 10 pages from last Friday. It’s weird I knew Pollard was there but I just decided to “avoid” the Boys RB situation on the first roster build go around. And now I’m here I kind of still want to fade. It’s like doubling down on not playing the “free square” (Conner) last year. Of course I can’t fully fade him so he’ll be in 2 or 3 that will likely end up being my best lineups, just like my Conner lineups last year.

    Things are getting closer!!! And as usual I see a lot of “noise” here and overthinking ownership.

  • CleverGroom

    @monarch said...

    Because he quite often ends up on GPP winning LUs and is underpriced for a featured back who had carry totals of 24, 25 and 27 in three of his final five games.

    CG…he scored 26.4 DK in a 21-7 win at Houston and then 29.9 in a 23-0 win over Dallas. I cannot exclude a workhorse back that is not priced as one because of vegas totals.

    I don’t really consider a guy who averages 2 targets per game to be a feature back (even Zeke got 3 targets per game through the first two years, when he was a passing game pariah for no apparent reason). You’re talking about a guy who needs to stay well north of 5 YPC in order to put up those stat lines, and that’s rather unlikely any given week (even less likely when he’s outdoors, I’d say, though he’s done it before on occasion).

    There’s an awful lot of plays on the board for me to go out of my way for a guy who doesn’t get receiving work. As a GPP dart throw at contrarian game script I get that there’s some precedent, but Mack’s far from appealing.

    Devonta Freeman makes a lot more sense to me as the same sort of play. He only touched the ball 95 times for Koetter in 2014 and still had more targets per game than Mack. Good for 4.6 targets per game under Shanahan and Sarkisian. Perhaps a worse OL than IND, comparable defensive matchup (LAC faced and gave up significantly more receptions than MIN to RBs last year, but that doesn’t matter if your boy isn’t targeted), superior QB, gets to play indoors.

    Best of all, Freeman’s much less dependent upon game script. He’s the guy, win or lose. Trailing might be a net negative for him, but it’d still nudge his targets up. Negative game script for Mack nudges Hines’ targets up instead, while cratering his carries. Not ideal.

    Granted, if Mack’s in negative game script then things haven’t gone to your plan. I get that. You still want points, right? People have won the Milly with airballs before. You don’t have to make it harder for yourself by playing an all-or-nothing guy when you can play somebody who’s equal or better in every way—depressed salary and ownership included—but has a markedly higher floor.

    Freeman’s just a better play if you ask me. He’s $300 cheaper on DK and people aren’t on him either, far as I know.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @mtdurham said...

    Wow looks like I was right after all. This deal only runs thru 2020, what a disaster. I feel bad for Colts fans, first Luck and now this… my god

    At the very least they could have rolled their cap room from this year into next year…. then put a better team around Brissett.

    A better team around Brisset? They were touted as having the best team all season long. They are strong at everything. I’m confused. What else do you want

  • monarch

    If I am 25 percent Mack in a 150 then I am basically saying I believe that there is a 25 percent chance he enjoys positive or neutral game script which I deem reasonable. I also get his offensive line which will be attacking the weaker parts of the Chargers D (the middle) which is basically their pass rush and Casey Hayward minus their stud sophomore safety. I just think the Chargers are going to struggle with the current status of their offensive line and we are looking at a close 20-14 type game like you stated. Those have been the games where Mack has come through. He scored 11 touchdowns in 13 games last season. If the Colts score two of them…I have confidence he has a pretty decent shot at one of them considering Brissett is not going to have a lot of time to be waiting for Hilton and Ebron to finish their routes.

    It’s not like he can’t catch the ball. He tallied 65 receptions at USF in three seasons. He is their best avenue to a win in Week 1. I’d like to think he is getting around 25 touches.

  • thedkexperience

    48 pages huh … looks like I got some reading to do.

  • kdsdawg

    I can’t recall a lot of talk about Mark Ingram. I realize he has Hill behind him but Ingram can also catch the ball out of the backfield. I don’t see Baltimore trailing. Just a lot of pounding the ball. Maybe Jackson takes some carries from him. This is a running team Anything else I am missing?

  • NDNole

    All this talk about pollard and the other rb’s. Watch gurley smash for 38 at below normal ownership. LOL

  • NDNole

    @kdsdawg said...

    I can’t recall a lot of talk about Mark Ingram. I realize he has Hill behind him but Ingram can also catch the ball out of the backfield. I don’t see Baltimore trailing. Just a lot of pounding the ball. Maybe Jackson takes some carries from him. This is a running team Anything else I am missing?

    People are underestimating fitzmagic. I actually drafted Parker in the late rounds of my fantasy draft because fitz will throw the ball in there. Dont be surprised if this game isnt closer than you might think.

  • Luctyl99

    @NDNole said...

    All this talk about pollard and the other rb’s. Watch gurley smash for 38 at below normal ownership. LOL

    I love gurley on fanduel. Too cheap regardless of the circumstances

  • monarch

    @kdsdawg said...

    I can’t recall a lot of talk about Mark Ingram. I realize he has Hill behind him but Ingram can also catch the ball out of the backfield. I don’t see Baltimore trailing. Just a lot of pounding the ball. Maybe Jackson takes some carries from him. This is a running team Anything else I am missing?

    I think he’s a good play. His ownership could be higher than it might normally be because astute owners will be looking to get the RB1 to pair with the Ravens defense vs the Dolphins but that shouldn’t stop anyone from liking him. I’ll have some shares.

  • AVivier

    At least we should find out today what is going on for Week 1.

    https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1168883806796992517?s=21

    #Cowboys RB Zeke Elliott, who has been in Cabo since training camp began, is flying back to the Dallas area in case his extension gets done, sources say. The deal is not done. Some obstacles remain. But he will be in town if it gets finalized.

  • NDNole

    @AVivier said...

    At least we should find out today what is going on for Week 1.

    https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1168883806796992517?s=21

    #Cowboys RB Zeke Elliott, who has been in Cabo since training camp began, is flying back to the Dallas area in case his extension gets done, sources say. The deal is not done. Some obstacles remain. But he will be in town if it gets finalized.

    I side with zeke and nfl runningbacks. They are getting screwed. But he better take the deal if its just under gurley. Too much to risk even as good as he is. My guess is this works out and he is ready for week 1.

    The next collective bargaining agreement they will really need to find a way to address the rb position and pay. When they are young and cheep yet produce like 8 figures it ok. But when they are ready to get paid 8 figures the teams dont want to pay for past performance lol. I get it on their side to but todays rb can effectively be used up for the amount of the average career and discarded for the next.

    Kids, go ahead and be star runningbacks in pop warner and highschool and get noticed. But you better change positions in college lol. End rant.

  • bigstacks2015

    @monarch said...

    He’s a beast. No Latavius Murray you name the Vikings backup running back? He’s further removed from his rookie year injury. ATL is really bad vs all kinds of running backs.

    8.8 receptions/61.5 yards ceded to running backs via the air last season for the Falcons. Dead last in the league.

    Alexander Mattison is the backup running back and he’ll be the starter in Minnesota by week 4

  • squidkill

    @bigstacks2015 said...

    Alexander Mattison is the backup running back and he’ll be the starter in Minnesota by week 4

    Not only is this a terrible take, you spelled Mike Boone wrong.

  • Ace15

    TE’s are in such a good spot on both sites. I know it’s rare but this might be the week 2 TE LU’s takes down the Milly. Njoku/Henry/Ertz/Kelce all in smash spots.

  • ssilberman2012

    I am getting closer to my plays for the week. One of my biggest mistakes last year was underrating impact of ownership and the tournament size. What cost/size tourneys do you think you fade/play chalk like Dalvin Cook and Chris Godwin and fade/play lower-owned guys like Marlon Mack and Joe Mixon? Thanks in advance.

  • ssilberman2012

    @sox9 said...

    Level of involvement for Montgomery Week 1? 3-down back from the get-go or most of the work going to Mike Davis, Cohen and Montgomery in a 3-way timeshare?

    In showdown contests I will have Montgomery over Aaron Jones. I think week 1 is a perfect time to take advantage of the ambiguous backfield situation. I think people will want to play Montgomery after they see him score a touchdown, and I think now is the ideal time to jump on him before that happens.

  • ssilberman2012

    @mtdurham said...

    Wow looks like I was right after all. This deal only runs thru 2020, what a disaster. I feel bad for Colts fans, first Luck and now this… my god

    At the very least they could have rolled their cap room from this year into next year…. then put a better team around Brissett.

    They have a ton of cap space, one of the highest-rated O lines, lots of weapons on offense, and a young, improving defense that is already good. I think they could win the division at 9-7 but my money is still on the Texans.

  • thatkid500

    @Ace15 said...

    TE’s are in such a good spot on both sites. I know it’s rare but this might be the week 2 TE LU’s takes down the Milly. Njoku/Henry/Ertz/Kelce all in smash spots.

    Too bad you left out the top TE play

  • ssilberman2012

    @33BeRad said...

    I’m 42 and do em like that too.

    How about 25? lol…

  • monarch

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    I am getting closer to my plays for the week. One of my biggest mistakes last year was underrating impact of ownership and the tournament size. What cost/size tourneys do you think you fade/play chalk like Dalvin Cook and Chris Godwin and fade/play lower-owned guys like Marlon Mack and Joe Mixon? Thanks in advance.

    Great question

    Cook and Godwin are in my core and I’ve been promoting Mack so he might be in there as well. Mack certainly would help me with uniques and then it comes down to roster construction. I like Baker a lot and that differentiates me from the Chubb guys so I think you can build a good competitive and unique LU with Cook/Godwin. It becomes tougher once you are piling in four and five chalk guys in a LU.

  • ssilberman2012

    @CleverGroom said...

    Carson Wentz has a nuclear game within his range of outcomes. I’d still find it very surprising, particularly given his injury history, their depth at RB to start the year, and how little fight the WAS O is likely to offer.

    Wentz’s projected ownership is shockingly low for their implied team total. I agree with your overall thesis, but how often were those 40-point guys the core of winning LUs? Some of those studs may have been priced up and not in top LUs I am thinking, although I could be way off…

  • monarch

    I think Wentz ownership is being held down due to not a clear cut stacking partner. If he had OBJ or JJ then Wentz would be much higher owned. Ertz makes sense but then you are passing up on guys with higher ceiling or the mispriced 3k range.

  • Ace15

    @monarch said...

    I think Wentz ownership is being held down due to not a clear cut stacking partner. If he had OBJ or JJ then Wentz would be much higher owned. Ertz makes sense but then you are passing up on guys with higher ceiling or the mispriced 3k range.

    Keenum/Thompson/Reed/Ertz stack for me. Last time Keenum had a decent TE he went to the pro-bowl. They will be behind, he will dump it off. Really just depends on what kind of game script you envision.

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