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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BIF

    @thedkexperience said...

    That’s where I’m sitting on it. KC is gonna score 30+. That’s what they do. The Jags D is good but it isn’t in the conversation for best units of all time like the Chiefs who scored 8 trillion points last year.

    Personally I’m all over the KC D this week. All it takes is one pick 6 or a return TD. KC is more than capable of pulling that off.

    The KC D ?

    The KC D on the road ?

    Missing two of their best players from last year going against a non-Bortles led Jags team

    Pass

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Has Nick Foles ever played behind a bad O line? Is he being blindly chased. Remember he had the best team in the league, they made Carson Wentz look good while playing poorly whilst they had their turmoil and refused to play hard for him, and they make Foles a SB champ.

    The Chiefs seemingly have bolstered their air D, jaguars will be playing tough as nails D. Will anyone be shocked to see a game with both teams under 20

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    The KC D ?

    The KC D on the road ?

    Missing two of their best players from last year going against a non-Bortles led Jags team

    Pass

    Foles is streaky. Yes, he can become Joe Montana for short stretches, but he can also turn into a pumpkin quite quickly.

  • thedkexperience

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    Has Nick Foles ever played behind a bad O line? Is he being blindly chased. Remember he had the best team in the league, they made Carson Wentz look good while playing poorly whilst they had their turmoil and refused to play hard for him, and they make Foles a SB champ.

    The Chiefs seemingly have bolstered their air D, jaguars will be playing tough as nails D. Will anyone be shocked to see a game with both teams under 20

    I’m mostly expecting KC to roll them like 34-17. The Jags aren’t all that much better than an 8-8 team. KC, meanwhile, should be excellent until Evil Andy Reid shows up in January.

  • roomchat

    Question from a noob – how much stacking is too much stacking?

    What are the best strategies for (a) a one team stack; and (b) a full game stack?

    I know correlations (i.e., QB/WR/TE; RB/D; etc.).

    I’m just wondering how many people play two WR and a QB from the same team, or fully stack up both teams from the same game, and what kind of success that breeds.

  • ssilberman2012

    @squidkill said...

    LOL Elliott will be out there and will – People that think he sits are delusional. He will play for sure. Just have to wait to see if there is any indication of how much-

    it is actually perfect. ownership will be there and they are both bad plays. not playing them is already a nice edge.

  • ssilberman2012

    @CleverGroom said...

    Brandin Cooks is fine if you want to bring it back. I’m mostly interested in the CMC/CAR stack, so I’m not sure there’s much need.

    As usual you have me rethinking things. You and @Avivier (whatever your name is Von Miller guy lol) like Cooks more than Woods. Looking at last year’s game logs and Woods’ slot matchup, I’m not sure why there is no love.

    I have a lot of Cam. Honestly don’t know what WR in that price range to use if not Woods or Cooks. We both agree on Godwin.

  • ssilberman2012

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    I am not sure I am understanding all the love for Carolina.

    - Cam is going underowned and he is believed to be healthy – Moore and especially Samuel are prime breakout candidates – Greg Olsen healthy – Rams potential Super Bowl hangover – it’s a thing – One of the higher O/Us on slate

  • ssilberman2012

    Love the guy as a player but staying away from players coming off of torn ACL

  • monarch

    @roomchat said...

    Question from a noob – how much stacking is too much stacking?

    What are the best strategies for (a) a one team stack; and (b) a full game stack?

    I know correlations (i.e., QB/WR/TE; RB/D; etc.).

    I’m just wondering how many people play two WR and a QB from the same team, or fully stack up both teams from the same game, and what kind of success that breeds.

    Spend dow on your WR option. For instance if you go Baker then instead of OBJ at 8.2k? Go Higgins in the three range. If Baker is stack worthy then Higgins would have likely crushed value and you aren’t going to miss out on OBJ because he is expected to be around 20-25 points. Spend that 5k savings elsewhere. Heard that from Raybon yesterday as well.

  • ssilberman2012

    @roomchat said...

    Question from a noob – how much stacking is too much stacking?

    What are the best strategies for (a) a one team stack; and (b) a full game stack?

    I know correlations (i.e., QB/WR/TE; RB/D; etc.).

    I’m just wondering how many people play two WR and a QB from the same team, or fully stack up both teams from the same game, and what kind of success that breeds.

    Sorry if you hate the “it depends” answer, but yeah. In larger GPPs you want to be more highly correlated. In smaller GPPs, you don’t need to be as risky. And again, sorry if this is obvious, but the team depends too. For example, stacking Jameis with Godwin and Evans or Cousins with Theilen and Diggs are two of the best examples of stacking multiple pass catchers because we know that’s where those targets are most likely to go. Stacking two pass catchers with Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, and Mitchell Trubisky is a lot tougher because they spread the ball around to many other guys. Hope this helps a little.

  • thedkexperience

    @roomchat said...

    Question from a noob – how much stacking is too much stacking?

    What are the best strategies for (a) a one team stack; and (b) a full game stack?

    I know correlations (i.e., QB/WR/TE; RB/D; etc.).

    I’m just wondering how many people play two WR and a QB from the same team, or fully stack up both teams from the same game, and what kind of success that breeds.

    It’s all slate specific but in general for a GPP stacking a QB with a WR or TE is a good idea. You can even go more than that but every extra stack comes with a greater risk/reward.

    If you find a game you really like, have at it. Just know that you’re risking the lowest score of your life should you make a bad call. That said, the only GPP I ever won involved me taking 7 players from the same game. It’s totally viable … just risky.

  • DSR2389

    @BIF said...

    The KC D ?

    The KC D on the road ?

    Missing two of their best players from last year going against a non-Bortles led Jags team

    Pass

    What players are you referring to?

  • thedkexperience

    @monarch said...

    Spend dow on your WR option. For instance if you go Baker then instead of OBJ at 8.2k? Go Higgins in the three range. If Baker is stack worthy then Higgins would have likely crushed value and you aren’t going to miss out on OBJ because he is expected to be around 20-25 points. Spend that 5k savings elsewhere. Heard that from Raybon yesterday as well.

    On the Thur-Mon FD slate I’m rocking Deshaun Watson stacked with Will Fuller. I assume Fuller will go on his normal September tear for the 3.5 games he’s healthy. I also assume Hopkins will be the favorite stack with Watson so I’m getting some variation. Now the question remains … do I double stack? I just might.

  • thedkexperience

    @DSR2389 said...

    What players are you referring to?

    I actually don’t know myself. Clark and the Honey Badger are pretty good additions.

    Edit – Probably Houston and Berry. Sounds like a wash or even slight improvement to me.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @mike42 said...

    spent 2 months of his off-season in cold Wyoming, away from his family, to train; means something too. I believe him when he says he had nothing else to do in Wyoming but get better

    Looks like you read “Reawakening” /Bleacherreport article. Long but inspiring. Besides the good matchup, Chiefs D on the road is a thing, the RB cupboard is bare in Jacksonville. Rededicated + volume x KC road D = 25+ juicy touches

    edit, last years Chief opponents ran the 2nd most plays/game

  • squidkill

    Wyoming- That is where Mike has been.

  • thedkexperience

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Looks like you read “Reawakening” /Bleacherreport article. Long but inspiring. Besides the good matchup, Chiefs D on the road is a thing, the RB cupboard is bare in Jacksonville. Rededicated + volume x KC road D = 25+ juicy touches

    I’m not sure how much of a thing it actually is. This is based on FD scoring because the DK game logs don’t go back far enough.

    Away Fantasy Points: 10, -3, 6, 0, 6, 11, 8, -1,

    Home Fantasy Points: 4, 22, 14, 9, 10, 4, 8, 24

    Looks sort of lopsided right but …

    The two monster home games – the awful Raiders and … this week’s opponent, the Jaguars! Was this because of homefield advantage or just the matchup?

    And wait, there’s more! Here is the list of teams where KC scored under 10 points – a line I feel is acceptable for a DFS defense even if not ideal.

    Pittsburgh – good team
    SF – inexplicable
    Denver x 2 – division
    NE – good team
    Cleveland – good team
    Oakland – division
    Balt – good team
    LAC – good team
    Seattle – good team

    So is it home and away? Or do they just happen to not score a lot generally when they play familiar opponents or good teams? Let’s check who they scored 10 or more against.

    LAC – division, road, good team
    JAX – non-division, home, bad team
    CIN – non-division, home, bad team
    ARI – non-division, home, bad team
    LAR – non-division, road, good team
    OAK – division, home, bad team

    Conclusion – yes, KC seems to play better at fantasy defense at home, but it’s not as simple as home = good, road = bad. It seems like they generally score a lot against non-division opponents who are bad teams. Ideally at home, yes, but not just because of it.

    And JAX was one of the two times they went ham last year.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @thedkexperience said...

    And JAX was one of the two times they went ham last year.

    Two words for you my friend, Blake Bortles. And before you tell me he threw for 430 yds, had 1-4 TD/INT. I can see a similar game from a Defillipo led Foles with the TD/INT ratio reversed, and that game was at KC

  • thedkexperience

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Two words for you my friend, Blake Bortles. And before you tell me he threw for 430 yds, had 1-4 TD/INT. I can see a similar game from a Defillipo led Foles with the TD/INT ratio reversed, and that game was at KC

    Oh, you’re 100% right. Not arguing that at all. I live 12 minutes from Lincoln Financial Field in Philly. Trust me, I’m well aware of Defillipo/Foles and how much Blake Bortles stinks in general. That part, yes, 100% agreed.

    However, I’m still wildly unsure if Foles can keep up with Mahomes in any stadium, especially game 1 with a new team. If he throws even 1 pick they could get off serve and then it’s bye bye to Fornette getting tons of carries. And if that happens, a second pick is possible as well.

    Foles gets super hot. There is no denying that. But he can still look like a pumpkin out of nowhere. Trying to keep up with KC is a good way to get out of his comfort zone.

    Side question … has Fornette ever played in an RPO system? If not, wouldn’t that raise the possibility of a fumble?

  • NDNole

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Love a healthy aaron rodgers at dog odds. Get rekt bears.

    BEARDOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Supanice

    I was under the impression the packers d managed to get worse? Is that not the case?

  • thedkexperience

    @Supanice said...

    I was under the impression the packers d managed to get worse? Is that not the case?

    The Packers are the Dolphins with 3 All-Pros. The media narrative that they are somehow more than an 8-8 team is nonsense. Most of the people on this forum are better experts than most “experts”.

  • speskowi

    @Supanice said...

    I was under the impression the packers d managed to get worse? Is that not the case?

    Packer signed Za’Darius Smith, Adrian Amos and Preston Smith. The defense definitely got better

    I have Packers with the upset. A-Rod and Adams for a nice Thursday stack

  • IronMonkey415

    Can I pick the Bears or will you guys clown on me and take away all my confident and reduce me to dirt?

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