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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • emnj69

    @markymark13 said...

    The Bills offense is very hard to get a read on. Crowded backfield and a bunch of new pass catchers. Don’t know if I can touch anyone besides Josh Allen

    I like beasley he is the exact type of player that gives the jets fits-and they have been talking him up like crazy

  • Smallchimp

    …Baaaack to DFS

    As far as the Jets go, Poole’s the slot CB and probably going to be on Beasley the majority of the time. Luckily, we have two games where that match-up happened in the past two years. Last year, Beasley went 5 for 7, 51 yards, no TD, and totaled 10.1 FP covered by Poole. While Player-Profiler doesn’t have CB match-ups for 2017, signs point to Poole being the opposing corner as well. In that outing, Beasley’s line was 2/3/23/0 for a total of 4.3 FP.

    Of course, the situation is different, if Beasley’s target count increases, he could very well do some damage. I’m wondering if Gregg Williams will be the X-factor in this match-up (and the defensive match-up as a whole). It’s going to take volume or TD upside to make this a spot worth hitting though. Getting 15 FP out of him is fine, but given the soft pricing, that kind of return won’t matter when a $600 RB goes for 30 FP and another $4000 receiver gets 30 FP as well.

  • thedkexperience

    @emnj69 said...

    as a lifelong jets fan I am happy the broken system gave me bell :)

    Fair. Sorry for being so combative. The contract hold out thing always gets me.

    Side note – Gase isn’t actually an offensive genius. The guy “coached” Peyton Manning to an MVP season, which is probably something most people with a passing understanding of Madden could have done at that point. Add in that the Dolphins just ran the slowest paced offense in the NFL and somehow this guy is supposed to right the ship in NY? I just don’t get it.

    Even as someone who likes Darnold, this whole thing sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Just a constant stream of delay of game penalties and Bell yelling at his QB mostly because Gase wants to show his “genius” by calling plays that take 20 seconds to say.

  • Playtaw1n

    @emnj69 said...

    best value on the slate will be Jordan Howard-yes eagles have about 600 rbs but I believe he will get all goal line carries and think at home he is a lock for two touch downs.

    I started looking at him quite a bit myself and if you’re going sub 5k he’s the best option by far imo. Eagles should be working with a lot of short fields and though I like the redskins front 7 from a pass rush perspective I think they’ll continue to struggle against the run especially after losing Zach brown. Howard also getting a pretty decent upgrade at Oline in Philly too

  • thedkexperience

    @Playtaw1n said...

    I started looking at him quite a bit myself and if you’re going sub 5k he’s the best option by far imo. Eagles should be working with a lot of short fields and though I like the redskins front 7 from a pass rush perspective I think they’ll continue to struggle against the run especially after losing Zach brown. Howard also getting a pretty decent upgrade at Oline in Philly too

    I live in Eagles territory. There seems to be way more love for the rookie RB in circles outside of Philly than in Philly itself. Personally I believe Howard will be the guy for the first 4 to 8 weeks. Pederson doesn’t seem to like RBs who cannot pass protect. Not that I know if the rook can or not, but most rookie RBs can’t so it makes sense.

  • Playtaw1n

    Yeah this is the feeling I have as well especially after seeing this from Rotoworld.

    Speaking Monday, Eagles OC Mike Groh praised Jordan Howard work in the passing game, particularly his pass protection

    Now we know Jordan Howard has absolute hands of stone but even a couple dump offs could go a long way to helping it 5-6x.

  • thedkexperience

    @Playtaw1n said...

    Yeah this is the feeling I have as well especially after seeing this from Rotoworld.

    Speaking Monday, Eagles OC Mike Groh praised Jordan Howard work in the passing game, particularly his pass protection

    Now we know Jordan Howard has absolute hands of stone but even a couple dump offs could go a long way to helping it 5-6x.

    For sure. Think about it from the Eagles perspective too … they have arguably the best 1 to 53 in football. While they don’t have a ton of great players (I think Fletcher Cox is their only one at this point since Jason Peters is 185 years old) but they are loaded at OL, TE, WR and DL with good players. Most teams can’t put 3 good offensive and defensive lineman on the field in a week and the Eagles can double that easily.

    Anyway, so what could get it all to go wrong? Wentz getting hurt. Without the Foles parachute Wentz’s health is even more imperative than before. Best way to keep him healthy? Run the ball on 1st and 2nd down more while keeping a blocking back – instead of a scatback – in on 3rd downs. Punting because Howard couldn’t take a swing pass 8 yards is bad; losing Wentz because Miles Sanders doesn’t chip block a defensive end is a heck of a lot worse.

    Add it all up and I think Sanders is gonna have to look more like Barry Sanders then a rookie 2nd round pick if he wants more than 5 touches a game before Halloween.

  • 808state

    Howard is so game script dependent and he’s also going to be splitting carries. You’d need everything to go right for him to get 20-25 points. For a tournament it’s a bad strategy IMO because it caps your ceiling.

  • emnj69

    @Smallchimp said...

    …Baaaack to DFS

    As far as the Jets go, Poole’s the slot CB and probably going to be on Beasley the majority of the time. Luckily, we have two games where that match-up happened in the past two years. Last year, Beasley went 5 for 7, 51 yards, no TD, and totaled 10.1 FP covered by Poole. While Player-Profiler doesn’t have CB match-ups for 2017, signs point to Poole being the opposing corner as well. In that outing, Beasley’s line was 2/3/23/0 for a total of 4.3 FP.

    Of course, the situation is different, if Beasley’s target count increases, he could very well do some damage. I’m wondering if Gregg Williams will be the X-factor in this match-up (and the defensive match-up as a whole). It’s going to take volume or TD upside to make this a spot worth hitting though. Getting 15 FP out of him is fine, but given the soft pricing, that kind of return won’t matter when a $600 RB goes for 30 FP and another $4000 receiver gets 30 FP as well.

    as a lifelong jets fan and season ticket holder for many years-CB is the kind of player that always gives jets fits-I take any numbers from CB with the cowboys with a grain of salt as he was an option of last resort for them-the bills seem to (if you believe the beat writers) loving CB and he has been saying how great it is there for him

  • emnj69

    @thedkexperience said...

    Fair. Sorry for being so combative. The contract hold out thing always gets me.

    Side note – Gase isn’t actually an offensive genius. The guy “coached” Peyton Manning to an MVP season, which is probably something most people with a passing understanding of Madden could have done at that point. Add in that the Dolphins just ran the slowest paced offense in the NFL and somehow this guy is supposed to right the ship in NY? I just don’t get it.

    Even as someone who likes Darnold, this whole thing sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Just a constant stream of delay of game penalties and Bell yelling at his QB mostly because Gase wants to show his “genius” by calling plays that take 20 seconds to say.

    no worries and I am not a gase fan-I saw him run some terrible offenses in Miami-I do think the jets finally have a few good pieces on offense-bell will be a huge help to sam for sure-long term I see bell as boom or bust-the jets have been lucky in the past going after proven backs(not that it means this will be the same) but curtis martin and tomlinson were great additions.

  • sanders_tj

    @squidkill said...

    Lots of buzz saying that AZ offense and Kyler Murray will be chalk in week 1. my oh my I hope this stands to be true.

    Same. I have lots of shares of K Johnson/Lions

  • emnj69

    @808state said...

    Howard is so game script dependent and he’s also going to be splitting carries. You’d need everything to go right for him to get 20-25 points. For a tournament it’s a bad strategy IMO because it caps your ceiling.

    I love howard early season and game one in particular-the best dfs team I ever had was to years ago(last year sadly I sucked) -it was the best line up in all of dfs that week and won me 100 grand-my running backs my most expensive rb was chris thompson who was if memory serves me correctly about 4 grand-the teams for me that have done the best in my dfs history were paying down at rb and qb and defense and paying up for wr and te

  • Ace15

    Someone talk me off of a Cousins-Diggs-Thielen stack…Feel like I’ve been locked in on Cousins hard..How owned do we think he will be…Also, lets have a great season everyone!

  • js5734

    i would pick one of the two and stack cousins with cook and Diggs / theilen

  • Playtaw1n

    @808state said...

    Howard is so game script dependent and he’s also going to be splitting carries. You’d need everything to go right for him to get 20-25 points. For a tournament it’s a bad strategy IMO because it caps your ceiling.

    But they’re playing the redskjns, game script should be ideal

  • thedkexperience

    @Ace15 said...

    Someone talk me off of a Cousins-Diggs-Thielen stack…Feel like I’ve been locked in on Cousins hard..How owned do we think he will be…Also, lets have a great season everyone!

    I can’t. Keep coming back to Captain Kirk.

  • thedkexperience

    @Playtaw1n said...

    But they’re playing the redskjns, game script should be ideal

    Haha seriously.

    Game script A – Eagles get up a lot, run the ball.

    Game script B – Eagles and Redskins play it close, Howard gets a lot of time.

    Game script C – Redskins blow out the Eagles on the backs of their CFL level QBs or Wentz having an amazingly poor game versus the Skins D.

    I dunno, but I have a hard time thinking of a scenario where the Eagles get blown out against such a mediocre offense, especially since Wentz is pretty careful with the ball.

  • 808state

    lol it’s funny. Jordan Howard is competing with 10 guys, but he’s definitely going to get 20+ touches. The Rams draft 1 guy and Gurley’s not going to see the field.

  • CleverGroom

    @emnj69 said...

    best value on the slate will be Jordan Howard-yes eagles have about 600 rbs but I believe he will get all goal line carries and think at home he is a lock for two touch downs.

    How could anybody be a lock for two TDs? That’s not reasonable for any team, let alone one that only had 12 rushing TDs last season.

    I wouldn’t dream of giving Jordan Howard all goal-line work if I was Competent Head Football Coach Doug Pederson, because Howard’s skillet hands are a tell that you’re going to run the ball. Put someone more versatile in there like Miles Sanders and you can set up PA—which PHI used 32% of the time last year, the 3rd highest rate in the league. PHI passed 51% of the time inside the 10 last year. That fell all the way to 50% inside the 5. Hell, they even passed a whopping 45% of the time at the 1-yard line, and 4/5 times they got the TD!

    Bottom line, I think there’s merit to the argument that Doug Pederson has always had a committee backfield because Doug Pederson has never had a well-rounded RB worth a damn. It’s rare for NFL teams to spend a 2nd round pick on a situational committee back.

    They’ll use Howard sometimes in short yardage running situations, and even use him as a decoy since they can put 12 personnel on the field, run PA, and then throw the ball to Zach Ertz or Dallas Goedert instead of Howard. Otherwise I think the lion’s share of the work could very well go to Miles Sanders. The way camp’s sounded, I’m not sure Sanders is leaving the coaches any alternatives.

  • infantryboys

    If we’re dumpster diving for RBs, you can do a lot worse than Chris Thompson at $3.5K. He wasN’t right when he came back from injury last season but he’s had 8 months to heal. Skins should be playing from behind with either Haskins or Keenum and without Trent Williams so a lot of check downs are a real potential. It doesn’t hurt that the rest of the receiving corps is a hot mess either.

  • CleverGroom

    @emnj69 said...

    but back to daily-look for cole beasley to get 10 catches vs my jets

    We’ll see how this plays out in the preseason, but I might need to be resuscitated if Josh Allen becomes some kind of Alex Smith Worst Case Scenario checkdown machine in 2019.

  • infantryboys

    @808state said...

    lol it’s funny. Jordan Howard is competing with 10 guys, but he’s definitely going to get 20+ touches. The Rams draft 1 guy and Gurley’s not going to see the field.

    Not using either. Rams drafted a RB AND matched the offer sheet on Malcom Brown. As for Philly, I learned not to use Doug Pederson RBs last season.

  • ssilberman2012

    @mtdurham said...

    Week 1-2 in NFL is absolutely critical towards turning a profit for the season in my opinion…. its the perfect storm of dumb money and new opportunities to exploit…

    this could not be more true which is why i am starting so early

  • ssilberman2012

    @AVivier said...

    Pbly, Mahommes, Luck, Baker, Cam and Winston gonna be popular too.

    QB ownership should be really spread out. My favorite for GPP might actually be Matthew Stafford. No one will have him and Arizona should be able to put up points. I think Patrick Peterson is suspended too?

  • ssilberman2012

    @emnj69 said...

    as a lifelong jets fan I am happy the broken system gave me bell :)

    as a lifelong fins fan i love that you have Gase lol

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