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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • ssilberman2012

    @squidkill said...

    Lots of buzz saying that AZ offense and Kyler Murray will be chalk in week 1. my oh my I hope this stands to be true.

    I hope and think this is true. Also all this talk about Gurley – he is obviously going to be high owned too. Easy fade for that reason alone. Super Bowl hangovers are real and I think it’ll impact the Rams most important guy in a huge way. Of course I am talking about Coach.

  • CleverGroom

    I honestly don’t know what Adam Gase is. His offensive personnel have either been so good that he doesn’t matter or so bad that he doesn’t matter. If anything, he might just be the Andy Dalton of playcallers: he’ll give you the sum of his offense’s parts. Nothing gets degraded, nothing gets elevated. It is what it is. And if what it is is a bad NFL offense, he’s self-aware enough to grind the clock instead of trying to outscore you.

    I’m intensely skeptical of Le’Veon Bell if that’s true. Patience isn’t such a virtue behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Kalil will help mentor and lead the young bucks—especially Sam Darnold—but he’s over the hill as a player. Maybe that means they split Bell out wide or put him in the slot more often. That will tend to take Jamison Crowder off the field and further ensure that Quincy Enunwa has to play wide if he plays at all. Whatever happens, Robby Anderson is your only natural outside WR.

    I have a lot of doubts about this team. It goes deeper than just Gase and his pace of play.

  • ssilberman2012

    It is looking difficult with so many playable RBs for week 1, but if Zeke is out I am locking in Barkeley in all GPPs. The Giants beat the Cowboys week 1, Jerry pays Zeke a ton, and then the Cowboys still falter. What a story that would be…It would easily be the Giants Super Bowl. They know they would be lucky to even get 5 wins this year.

  • CleverGroom

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    It is looking difficult with so many playable RBs for week 1, but if Zeke is out I am locking in Barkeley in all GPPs. The Giants beat the Cowboys week 1, Jerry pays Zeke a ton, and then the Cowboys still falter. What a story that would be…It would easily be the Giants Super Bowl. They know they would be lucky to even get 5 wins this year.

    I’m pretty sure Amari Cooper could go down to Cabo with Zeke for Week 1 and the Cowboys will still crush the G-Men into paste.

    Tell me one unit on the NYG roster that’s clearly better than their DAL counterpart, besides RB if Zeke misses time.

    I’ll grant you Rosas over Maher, I guess.

  • Playtaw1n

    @808state said...

    lol it’s funny. Jordan Howard is competing with 10 guys, but he’s definitely going to get 20+ touches. The Rams draft 1 guy and Gurley’s not going to see the field.

    Difference is Howard is half the price and we’re talking about tournament plays with upside

  • squidkill

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    as a lifelong fins fan i love that you have Gase lol

    As a lifelong Pats fan I laugh at you both. 🥴

  • baseballislife93

    @CleverGroom said...

    I’m pretty sure Amari Cooper could go down to Cabo with Zeke for Week 1 and the Cowboys will still crush the G-Men into paste.

    Tell me one unit on the NYG roster that’s clearly better than their DAL counterpart, besides RB if Zeke misses time.

    I’ll grant you Rosas over Maher, I guess.

    Engram over Witten all I can think of

  • CleverGroom

    @baseballislife93 said...

    Engram over Witten all I can think of

    True!

    Fun fact: Evan Engram ($4,800 on DK, or TE5 by salary) has scored a combined 56.6 DKFP against the Cowboys in his first 4 meetings, while Jason Witten ($3,000, TE19) scored 51.1 DKFP in his last 4 games against the Giants.

  • JTAx33

    @CleverGroom said...

    True!

    Fun fact: Evan Engram ($4,800 on DK, or TE5 by salary) has scored a combined 56.6 DKFP against the Cowboys in his first 4 meetings, while Jason Witten ($3,000, TE19) scored 51.1 DKFP in his last 4 games against the Giants.

    Fun fact, I’m not touching Jason Witten

  • Smallchimp

    Duke Johnson to Texans, so much for the Lamar Miller show /s

  • CleverGroom

    @Smallchimp said...

    Duke Johnson to Texans, so much for the Lamar Miller show /s

    I suspect Duke’s one of those guys whose efficiency benefits tremendously from a good RB2 role. BOB might be able to find exactly that for him. Definitely going to be a guy to watch this season.

  • lotusbomb

    since were so far out why don’t we tell eachother about coordinators were familiar with from our teams that either stayed put or have moved on.

    greg williams has found a new home with the jets and for two years as a browns fan I consistently witnessed teams attack us with their tight ends. and this goes for teams that don’t use the tight ends often too. this leads me to believe this was a scheme issue. I will be attacking that matchup early and often this season.

    we were also bad against the run. that’s harder to peg though as that usually is a symptom of personnel, I’ll stay away from shared backfields but I’ll definitely be interested in rb’s who are heavily involved.

    lastly williams really preaches a turnover mentality. he’s fine with giving up yards if the defense can turn over the field. there will probably be situations this year where their defense gives you a gpp winning score but it will still have been worthwhile to pick a couple opposing offensive players.

  • thedkexperience

    @lotusbomb said...

    since were so far out why don’t we tell eachother about coordinators were familiar with from our teams that either stayed put or have moved on.

    greg williams has found a new home with the jets and for two years as a browns fan I consistently witnessed teams attack us with their tight ends. and this goes for teams that don’t use the tight ends often too. this leads me to believe this was a scheme issue. I will be attacking that matchup early and often this season.

    we were also bad against the run. that’s harder to peg though as that usually is a symptom of personnel, I’ll stay away from shared backfields but I’ll definitely be interested in rb’s who are heavily involved.

    lastly williams really preaches a turnover mentality. he’s fine with giving up yards if the defense can turn over the field. there will probably be situations this year where their defense gives you a gpp winning score but it will still have been worthwhile to pick a couple opposing offensive players.

    Great idea. On my pace projection spreadsheet, I make notes not only about head coaching changes but about “identity changes”. Using the Jets as an example since I’ve been crapping on Gase so much, there most logical identity is that of last year’s Dolphins, while you would have to imagine that this year’s Dolphins are going to try – and likely fail but still try – to model their style off of New England. Here are the teams that I expect to have different identities.

    TB – late 2000s Cardinals
    CIN – recent Rams
    ARI – obviously
    NYJ – recent Dolphins
    MIA – recent Pats
    GB – recent Titans

    Some other teams only changed one side.

    KC – trying to run a late 2000s Giants D
    ATL – going full retard on offense as last year’s Bucs
    Det – recent Seahawks
    Jax – SB winning Eagles O

    There are a few more, and I doubt that most of this will work but some of it is pretty easy to project. Most coaches – HCs and coordinators alike – don’t go into a new situation and instantly change who they are. Sometimes that’s a good thing when you have no previous culture. Sometimes it’s a bad thing when you have an all-time great QB who is wondering how the guy who turned Marcus Mariotta into the 19th best QB is going to help him.

  • sanders_tj

    @Playtaw1n said...

    Now we know Jordan Howard has absolute hands of stone but even a couple dump offs could go a long way to helping it 5-6x.

    His hands of stone in week 1 two years ago vs Atlanta cost me $1,000,000 on Fanduel’s Sunday million. Literally. :(

  • sanders_tj

    @Ace15 said...

    Someone talk me off of a Cousins-Diggs-Thielen stack…Feel like I’ve been locked in on Cousins hard..How owned do we think he will be…Also, lets have a great season everyone!

    Highly recommend looking elsewhere. Once the Vikes fired DeFilippo last year, they hardly threw Thielen or Diggs way. Targets by week:

    week 1: Thielen: 12, Diggs: 6
    week 2: Thielen: 13, Diggs: 13
    week 3: Thielen: 19, Diggs: 10
    week 4: Thielen: 12, Diggs: 15
    week 5: Thielen: 10, Diggs: 11
    week 6: Thielen: 15, Diggs: 5
    week 7: Thielen: 10, Diggs: 14
    week 8: Thielen: 7, Diggs: 11
    week 9: Thielen: 7, Diggs: 0
    week 10: Thielen: 0 (bye), Diggs: 0 (bye)
    week 11: Thielen: 12, Diggs: 18
    week 12: Thielen: 9, Diggs: 11
    week 13: Thielen: 10, Diggs: 5
    week 14: Thielen: 7, Diggs: 6
    week 15: Thielen: 2, Diggs: 7
    week 16: Thielen: 6, Diggs: 6
    week 17: Thielen: 4, Diggs: 10

  • Smallchimp

    @sanders_tj said...

    Highly recommend looking elsewhere. Once the Vikes fired DeFilippo last year, they hardly threw Thielen or Diggs way

    I’m interested in seeing where ownership lands on this. If touts start pushing Thielen and Diggs as “too cheap,” it’s going to be a huge landmine. Diggs is probably safer than Thielen at this point if volume isn’t going to be there for either.

  • Playtaw1n

    @sanders_tj said...

    His hands of stone in week 1 two years ago vs Atlanta cost me $1,000,000 on Fanduel’s Sunday million. Literally. :(

    Lmao I know the exact play you’re talking about because I had a big week on dk with him that week too…it was so ugly

  • sanders_tj

    @Smallchimp said...

    I’m interested in seeing where ownership lands on this. If touts start pushing Thielen and Diggs as “too cheap,” it’s going to be a huge landmine. Diggs is probably safer than Thielen at this point if volume isn’t going to be there for either.

    For the record, my model has Thielen as the 2nd best WR in week 1 and Diggs as the #13. My model is based on many things, but is weighted more heavily towards target stats, red zone stats and overall matchup against the opposing team. The hard thing for me to get over is the matchup. The Vikes/Falcons might be one of the best games for DFS scoring in week 1. That has to translate into good games for Thielen and Diggs, right? I’ve overthought this game more than any other so far. haha

  • sanders_tj

    @Playtaw1n said...

    Lmao I know the exact play you’re talking about because I had a big week on dk with him that week too…it was so ugly

    I finished 5th for $40k, but if he catches that ball with 17 seconds left in the game… I finish 1st for $1,000,000.

  • Smallchimp

    @thedkexperience said...

    Great idea. On my pace projection spreadsheet, I make notes not only about head coaching changes but about “identity changes”. Using the Jets as an example since I’ve been crapping on Gase so much, there most logical identity is that of last year’s Dolphins

    Bad comparison. Let’s not forget Gase wasn’t afraid to use Ajayi 30 times a game back in 2016, and comparatively, Bell has a more complete skill set (as far as blocking, catching, etc.) than him. Compared to Drake, Bell is light years ahead in pass blocking and I’d feel a lot more comfortable leaving him on the field when the play isn’t ran through him. Ballage isn’t too hot either when considering his skill set. Gase has a back worth utilizing again. The skill position players in New York are better than Miami last year on a player-by-player basis and the only question mark of “who’s better” is the offensive line. Idk, I think Gase hate is going to end up being misplaced and the quality of recent MIA rosters will be seen to be the issue.

  • ssilberman2012

    @sanders_tj said...

    For the record, my model has Thielen as the 2nd best WR in week 1 and Diggs as the #13. My model is based on many things, but is weighted more heavily towards target stats, red zone stats and overall matchup against the opposing team. The hard thing for me to get over is the matchup. The Vikes/Falcons might be one of the best games for DFS scoring in week 1. That has to translate into good games for Thielen and Diggs, right? I’ve overthought this game more than any other so far. haha

    For overall projected points or point per dollar?

    Not that this means these are good plays, but I expect Dalvin Cook and Julio Jones to be week 1 GPP chalk. The WR options just don’t seem that great for the main slate.

  • 808state

    Julio? I think you mean Evans or OBJ

    but who knows. based on this forum you have people locking in Jordan Howard

  • mtdurham

    @CleverGroom said...

    Three things.

    First, I was remiss in not observing that LAR lost their C and LG. Their LT is going on 38 years old—a ripe age for a K or a QB, let alone a lineman. Goff’s QBR when not facing pressure last regular season was 83.8, versus 11.3 when pressured. This offense can certainly struggle if the OL takes a significant step back. That could show not only in run blocking, but also in worse field position overall, fewer RZ trips, and fewer TDs. Gurley can potentially regress an awfully long way from 21 combined TDs.

    Second, talent doesn’t matter at RB. I’m not an absolutist on this point, but a lot of folks would probably consider me an extremist. It matters a great deal if Gurley goes from a 31-touch ceiling to 20, let alone 15. It certainly could crater his value relative to CMC, who’s tipped to get more touches than last season, if anything (whether that’s possible is a fair question), and who is apparently indestructible.

    These first two points are related multiplicatively: factors like the OL or Cooper Kupp starting slow coming back from his mid-season ACL go to the quality of touches, where the knee goes to quantity. Gurley can easily get whipsawed and lose half his value if he goes from a ceiling of 31 top-shelf touches to a ceiling of 20 B-tier touches per game.

    Third, I don’t actually disagree with you. Anybody with more than a handful of LUs probably should have Gurley in them, and I wouldn’t fault anybody for playing him even in a single bullet. I just don’t think it’s a slam-dunk because his price has dropped, because A) his price should have dropped—you’re simply wrong if you’re projecting his mean outcomes as good or better in 2019 as in 2018—B) pricing seldom matters on FD as much as raw points, and C) pricing is never as irrelevant in the NFL regular season as it is on Week 1 slates.

    Agreed, i will most likely be fading Gurley…. as many others have mentioned there is plenty of value in week 1… im looking for high ceiling plays at RB and while gurley still obviously has a pretty high ceiling i dont think we’ll see a 30 touch type game whereas many other healthy and fresh RB’s could easily surpass 25+ FPS. Could easily see Gurley alternating series or something.

    On top of that i hate the matchup. The Panthers run a notoriously slow, deliberate offense..focused on ball control and slow tempo…. they’ve got a pretty elite D-line, a revamped outside pass rush, and kuechly to focus on ball carriers.

    I dont like the macro factors at all here and i think his ownership will still be high based on his absurd production last season.

  • mtdurham

    @CleverGroom said...

    I honestly don’t know what Adam Gase is. His offensive personnel have either been so good that he doesn’t matter or so bad that he doesn’t matter. If anything, he might just be the Andy Dalton of playcallers: he’ll give you the sum of his offense’s parts. Nothing gets degraded, nothing gets elevated. It is what it is. And if what it is is a bad NFL offense, he’s self-aware enough to grind the clock instead of trying to outscore you.

    I’m intensely skeptical of Le’Veon Bell if that’s true. Patience isn’t such a virtue behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. Kalil will help mentor and lead the young bucks—especially Sam Darnold—but he’s over the hill as a player. Maybe that means they split Bell out wide or put him in the slot more often. That will tend to take Jamison Crowder off the field and further ensure that Quincy Enunwa has to play wide if he plays at all. Whatever happens, Robby Anderson is your only natural outside WR.

    I have a lot of doubts about this team. It goes deeper than just Gase and his pace of play.

    I’m not a big fan of jets offense but i cant stop thinking about that game where those dudes had like all those WR screens they took to the house

  • mtdurham

    @sanders_tj said...

    I finished 5th for $40k, but if he catches that ball with 17 seconds left in the game… I finish 1st for $1,000,000.

    Sheesh this is like a guy talking about his ex g/f all night.

    Kidding.

    I’d never stop thinking about that if it happened to me.

    One week i threw 150 computer optimized lineups in the Milly Maker for Golf…. and another 150 hand made lineups in the $0.50 minimax and at the end of the first day one of my $0.50 minimax lineups was in 1st place and would have been winning the $1 million. i couldnt breate for like 16 hours.

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