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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Smallchimp

    @mtdurham said...

    Agreed, i will most likely be fading Gurley…. as many others have mentioned there is plenty of value in week 1… im looking for high ceiling plays at RB and while gurley still obviously has a pretty high ceiling i dont think we’ll see a 30 touch type game whereas many other healthy and fresh RB’s could easily surpass 25+ FPS. Could easily see Gurley alternating series or something

    That’s the biggest thing going on here. When people talk Gurley, they talk about him finding his way to 20-something FP…which would be cool if he were priced down with the other RBs where a 20 point game would be closer to a 4x value. Gurley getting 25+ means: A. He gets 3+ touchdowns B: He gets something like 150 scrimmage yards C: He gets WR1 targets plus yards/touchdowns. What’s the easiest way to 25 FP for him? 150 yards, a TD, and 4 catches? Maybe something like 25 carries and 5 targets? That sort of usage doesn’t seem to be what he’s in line for. An extra TD could make it easier to hit 25, but that’s still asking for something like 15 carries and 3 catches for 100 yards and 2 TD, which requires predicting him getting 2 TD. Even then, you’re hoping that someone for $6000 doesn’t have the same outing and make spending an extra $2000 mean you’re out of contention. Pricing is loose, taking the steepest road to get a midseason-level value doesn’t make sense

    When you compare this to a back like Bell/D. or K. Johnson/”(player-popup #dalvin-cook)Dalvin Cook”:/players/dalvin-cook-36885/etc., it seems like you’re taking a super roundabout way to try to get the same value out of him that you could get out of those guys. $7900 for a RB to get 25ish points in what seems to be a situation where that might be a ceiling for him (barring what would be seen as unusual usage for his situation) seems like a lot of risk for meh payout. If the $6000-8000 range for RBs wasn’t as juicy as it is, maybe it’d be a better spot to take a shot.

  • rourke441

    fantasydraft has put up some nice nfl contests incl. one for a million bucks

  • rourke441

    do carlos hyde and mark ingram fit the bill as value picks

  • Smallchimp

    @rourke441 said...

    do carlos hyde and mark ingram fit the bill as value picks

    Ingram yes, Hyde is priced at a point where he’s surrounded by guys that could have a higher usage rate than him if their situation pans out. Pollard with no Zeke should see high usage if the latter ends up missing week, if Sanders ends up being the lead guy he’s a steal, etc. He’s probably currently the best guy at or near $4100 if he ends up getting the majority of carries and the other players around him don’t break out before Week 1, but it’s going to be something to monitor. I believe that Williams is the player you want out there on more snaps due to having a more rounded out skill set, but it depends on what you hear in the next month.

  • thedkexperience

    @Smallchimp said...

    Bad comparison. Let’s not forget Gase wasn’t afraid to use Ajayi 30 times a game back in 2016, and comparatively, Bell has a more complete skill set (as far as blocking, catching, etc.) than him. Compared to Drake, Bell is light years ahead in pass blocking and I’d feel a lot more comfortable leaving him on the field when the play isn’t ran through him. Ballage isn’t too hot either when considering his skill set. Gase has a back worth utilizing again. The skill position players in New York are better than Miami last year on a player-by-player basis and the only question mark of “who’s better” is the offensive line. Idk, I think Gase hate is going to end up being misplaced and the quality of recent MIA rosters will be seen to be the issue.

    I’m not anti-Gase because of a lack of running. I’m anti-Gase because he doesn’t call plays quick enough.

    Miami ran 826 plays last season, with the next fewest being the Cardinals at 850. The 16th ranked team ran 968 while 6 teams were over 1000 with Baltimore leading the league at 1103.

    Miami averaged 8.875 plays a game less than average. That’s a full long drive or at least 2 short drives. It’s an opportunity lost of about 50 yards and 3 to 14 points a week. I know the talent wasn’t good but it’s not like Buffalo was super talented and they got off 967 plays.

    Maybe it was just that Miami’s QBs were too inept to snap the ball faster, but if so why didn’t he dumb down the offense? Worked in Baltimore with LJ. Worked in Philly with Foles. Good coaches adapt. Gase did not.

    Even in his glory days as Denver’s OC Peyton was the real OC and called his plays at the line.

    This is definitely more of an NBA concept but if you don’t have talent the easiest way to bridge the gap is to play faster. More shots equals more points just as more snaps do.

    I fully expect Bell to be a workhorse. I actually like Darnold quite a bit. In a vacuum I think the Jets had a pretty good offseason, but if Gase is actually the league’s slowest play caller no amount of talent is gonna replace 8 to 16 plays a game that simply are not run.

  • baseballislife93

    Godwin TD
    Highest owned WR week 1?

  • pheffernan7

    @JTAx33 said...

    Fun fact, I’m not touching Jason Witten

    Jason Witten in his first game back
    At home…
    Vs the giants…

    The nfl is theater. He may only catch 2 passes but he’s catching a touchdown.

  • thedkexperience

    @pheffernan7 said...

    Jason Witten in his first game back
    At home…
    Vs the giants…

    The nfl is theater. He may only catch 2 passes but he’s catching a touchdown.

  • krighton

    Where is freaking ozigbo

  • JTAx33

    I know it’s too early to build, but Zeke sits week 1 I think 20% of the field plays my current cash lu

  • rourke441

    are these guys ok to be in a lineup chris carson mike williams jarvis landry randall cobb

  • Smallchimp

    @rourke441 said...

    are these guys ok to be in a lineup chris carson mike williams jarvis landry randall cobb

    Ask yourself if they have:
    A.) Volume
    B.) Red Zone usage
    C.) Positive game script

    If you think they have some combination of all three and more so than others around their price points go for it. Because it’s week 1, it’s a little tricky to entirely project a player’s usage especially if it’s with a new team or their team added pieces and you have to identify the soft pricing spots to keep up with what will be inflated scores.

    Do you know which role the player is likely to fill? Is it a slot receiver? A burner? Someone used in the red zone? A pass-catching back? An early down back? This is going to help shape your expectations of what the player can do, especially if someone is added to the team that has an overlapping role.

  • rourke441

    great answer tx red zone usage is a high priority for me e.g. lamar jackson and mark ingram

  • fenway2015

    with the injury to trent taylor jalen hurd is a great sleeper for week 1 with jimmy garopollo throwing the ball a lot in kyle shanahan’s offense against a weak Tampa Bay secondary. Hurd is only $3000.00 on DK for week 1.

  • Danforth11

    These cable companies suck. I wish red zone wasn’t so much.

  • JTAx33

    @pheffernan7 said...

    Jason Witten in his first game back
    At home…
    Vs the giants…

    The nfl is theater. He may only catch 2 passes but he’s catching a touchdown.

    That’s fine, I’ll gladly take the other TE in the game and get guaranteed volume from a guy we know is still athletic

  • mailnurs

    @JTAx33 said...

    That’s fine, I’ll gladly take the other TE in the game and get guaranteed volume from a guy we know is still athletic

    worth it tho (meant to quote “these cable companies suck”)

  • mtdurham

    @Danforth11 said...

    These cable companies suck. I wish red zone wasn’t so much.

    Red Zone channel is hosted for free all over the internet… spend 5 minutes looking for it instead of 5 days salary paying for it…

  • mailnurs

    I’d like to thank fanduel for the .05 150 max NFL contest!!!

  • mailnurs

    @mtdurham said...

    instead of 5 days salary paying for it…

    It’s only $250 in texas. If that is 5 days salary for you, you shouldn’t be gambling LOL maybe find a new career first

  • mailnurs

    @mtdurham said...

    Red Zone channel is hosted for free all over the internet

    btw people it’s these type of freeloaders that drive the price up every year. If you enjoy their service support them!!!

  • nloc

    Are you talking about Sunday ticket? Cause red zone is only $10 a month on Slingtv.

  • mailnurs

    @nloc said...

    Are you talking about Sunday ticket?

    Yes I am thank you! $10 a month is a nice deal!!

  • djjoeyg

    I pay 10 bucks a month for my “sports package” that includes the redzone channel, sec network etc. with Dish Network

  • Briancobb33

    @mailnurs said...

    btw people it’s these type of freeloaders that drive the price up every year. If you enjoy their service support them!!!

    Why would a drop in demand constitute a rise in price? I don’t think that’s how economics works. I get wanting to support your cable company but that’s not what drives the price up lol

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