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  • AVivier

    Thursday, 9/5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3.5 ) at Chicago ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/8
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 4.5 ) at Minnesota ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at Carolina ( 3 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3.5 ) at NY Jets ( -3.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at Jacksonville ( 4 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5.5 ) at Cleveland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9 ) at Philadelphia ( -9 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Miami ( 4 ) —- T: 37
    4:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Seattle ( -8.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at LA Chargers ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Dallas ( -7.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( (Pick) ) at Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 6 ) at New England ( -6 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/9
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53.5
    10:20 PM EST : Denver ( 2.5 ) at Oakland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • squidkill

    @WilliamPU2003 said...

    who dat in your avator

    Dude. That is the one and only Beetlejuice. OG member of the Howard Stern wack pack.

  • mike42

    @JTAx33 said...

    Bold

    Not this week. Dollar for dollar it makes sense. CMC/Barkley both are priced like they should be or would be last year in these spots. Feels like the 3-5 guys around 6k are priced 1k below what they should be. I was just doing cash and it’s hard not to do Carson, Cook, and Lenny. It’s too easy to do cash this week. Use 3 RB’s and WR’s in smash spots, insert chalk TE in smash spot and still have money for a top shelf D and good QB. I think it’s a week to let your opponents make the mistake. That what you thinking Squid? Everyone is chalk basically but the LU is rock solid (I think).

    EDIT: The only problem would be if what happens last night happens again. Game script or coach goes in a different direction because it
    s week one and we be guessing how they are going to use Carson or Cook or Lenny or Chubb. It looks to easy.

  • squidkill

    @WilliamPU2003 said...

    who dat in your avator

    It was really my high school yearbook pic. I was in the boxing club

  • zpa1989

    anyone like paul richardson if reed is out? keenum has to throw to someone, and will probably be throwing alot.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    It was really my high school yearbook pic. I was in the boxing club

    Prom King? Or did you at least beat up the prom King?

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    Prom King? Or did you at least beat up the prom King?

    Mike. I had a bevy of women in High School. It was mid to late 20’s when I lost my fastball.

  • JTAx33

    @mike42 said...

    Not this week. Dollar for dollar it makes sense. CMC/Barkley both are priced like they should be or would be last year in these spots. Feels like the 3-5 guys around 6k are priced 1k below what they should be. I was just doing cash and it’s hard not to do Carson, Cook, and Lenny. It’s too easy to do cash this week. Use 3 RB’s and WR’s in smash spots, insert chalk TE in smash spot and still have money for a top shelf D and good QB. I think it’s a week to let your opponents make the mistake. That what you thinking Squid? Everyone is chalk basically but the LU is rock solid (I think).

    EDIT: The only problem would be if what happens last night happens again. Game script or coach goes in a different direction because it
    s week one and we be guessing how they are going to use Carson or Cook or Lenny or Chubb. It looks to easy.

    I read his post wrong. As of now I have CMac just because the money is left but I thought he said he was playing both.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    I have been gambling on sports for 50 years. They didnt have computers back then. what was a spreadsheet then. Paying for advice was usually in the form of a tout sheet. quick and easy.

    Don’t forget those 900 numbers where they would give one team to the West Coast and the other team to the East Coast “I AM 7-0 ON MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL CALL ME FOR MY LOCK NOW!!!” LOL

  • ASitar

    I might be a little late to the party but I love Will Dissly this week (and paired w Russ).

  • squidkill

    @ASitar said...

    I might be a little late to the party but I love Will Dissly this week (and paired w Russ).

    No. You are the first guest.

  • BIF

    @ASitar said...

    I might be a little late to the party but I love Will Dissly this week (and paired w Russ).

    Sorry about the Allison call over MVS – still confused 🙄

    I’m playing against both Russ and Carson in my season long league so hoping all their TDs come from Penny or a Lockett reverse. I took Seattle in a couple Survivor pools so need them to win but I don’t need Russ going off.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @BIF said...

    Sorry about the Allison call over MVS – still confused 🙄

    I’m playing against both Russ and Carson in my season long league so hoping all their TDs come from Penny or a Lockett reverse. I took Seattle in a couple Survivor pools so need them to win but I don’t need Russ going off.

    Ahhhh so last night’s game was your fault, all’s forgiven. Shouldn’t have to apologize for a good call gone bad tho. And I have Carson in my season long and some DFS LUs so can we agree to disagree

  • BIF

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Ahhhh so last night’s game was your fault, all’s forgiven. Shouldn’t have to apologize for a good call gone bad tho. And I have Carson in my season long and some DFS LUs so can we agree to disagree

    Not all my fault 😢

    Had lots of Robinson and Cohen plus shares of both defenses but way too much Allison and Miller and too little Graham

  • mike42

    You guys see that AB video he just posted? He tape recorded a conversation between him and Gruden and did a video around it. Suspension back on. He done lost it.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    Not all my fault 😢

    Had lots of Robinson and Cohen plus shares of both defenses but way too much Allison and Miller and too little Graham

    I told you Cohen wouldn’t get any carries. The slot WR thing, well, let’s just forget about that. Might be the only game we watch all year where the slot WR’s don’t get a tgt until the end of the game. Not kidding. And they had the best matchups.

  • CleverGroom

    @Falconsfan101 said...

    TEs v.s. Browns still a thing?

    You shouldn’t expect it to be.

    TE DVP is extremely unstable year-to-year, because TEs depend so heavily on TDs, and TDs are volatile. The Browns tied for 4th most generous TE D in the NFL last year, which puts them right on the bubble as a team that we might count on remaining vulnerable.

    Weighed against that are the considerable additions to their defense, and the fact that they moved on from Gregg Williams. Now you’re looking at Steve Wilks, whose Cardinals were the 30th most generous TE D last year—another outlier number that we can expect to hold somewhat more stable year-to-year than the middle of the league.

    So, how much of CLE’s generosity was scheme and how much was personnel? Personally I’d say it was mostly Gregg Williams consistently keeping his angel safety high and/or blitzing like a wild man, clearing out space in the second level for TEs to operate. Wilks isn’t that guy. Even the addition of guys like Vernon and Richardson makes me worry that TEN will need to have 2 TEs blocking at all times just to cover down on Lewan’s absence and buy more than a split second for their shabby QBs to complete a thought (let alone a pass).

    Aside from all of that, Dr. Chao is still out on Delanie Walker. His tale of the tape is that Walker’s still hurt and can’t plant, pivot, or run fully off his bum leg. He writes:

    He was back during OTAs running drills, but expect Walker to have a slower start to the season before regaining his form. He avoids PUP but recently had said he felt 85%. Given the injury and his age, one cannot expect him to be the same as before although he could still produce. Indeed he scored a touchdown in the opening drive of the second preseason game but if you watch the play, one can see how he still favors the ankle. He can’t stop after the catch running into the wall and it is apparent that he is yet to be at 100%.

    We want players in high-scoring games, on high-scoring teams. We want players who are healthy. We want TEs who are home favorites. We want TEs against TE funnel defenses. We want to pay down at the position unless we’re buying the security of a Kelce or the outsized upside of a Howard, or a Henry, or an Ebron.

    Delanie Walker doesn’t satisfy a single criterion apart from price and ownership. He’s a profligate man’s Vernon Davis.

  • CleverGroom

    @mike42 said...

    You guys see that AB video he just posted? He tape recorded a conversation between him and Gruden and did a video around it. Suspension back on. He done lost it.

    Sauce.

    It’s not even particularly inflammatory, just heckin’ weird. The kind of thing that really serves no purpose other than as media grist and ammunition for the Raiders when they go after AB’s money. I won’t even believe he’s playing on Monday till I see it. Far too much that can happen between now and then.

    My guess is there’s a power struggle underway inside the organization, which kinda harks back to their scattered offseason moves like drafting Clelin Ferrell as much for his leadership and character as for his on-field play, while also bringing in raging character concerns like Vontaze Burfict and AB (to say nothing of Tom Cable the year before). Gruden rolled Reggie McKenzie’s body in a carpet and threw him in a river like Rasputin, yet it still feels like they’re divided internally.

    I’ve actually been impressed by how well Gruden’s kept himself out of the press on this whole AB thing. He’s learned a lot since the last time around and has done about as well as he could’ve walking this tightrope, letting Mayock play bad cop while he plays good cop. AB undercuts that narrative when he publishes audio of Gruden asking, “What the hell is going on, man?” Soon there won’t be anybody left in the organization who can take his side with a shred of dignity or authenticity.

    ETA: Here’s the full video. Jenny Vrentas pointed out that the recording itself was probably a crime in California (the law requires both parties to consent to recording), so that’s a fun added dimension.

    I wonder if Drew Rosenhaus is in on all of this stuff, or if he’s finding out with the rest of us. He should fire AB as a client, honestly. Dude is burning everything down around his own ears.

  • 33BeRad

    Just doing some digging and I don’t see a lot of games I would bet the over on. So I don’t think there will be an overabundance of scoring. Trying to figure out which games could be a sneaky shootout. The heat in Florida worries me a bit for those games. The Panthers like to play slow and Goff had road struggles last year(maybe even add the west coast to east coast 1pm time game). Detroit is gonna want to play slow and if they can run they may control that, or if Arizona is inefficient in the Air Raid. Minny has done well holding Atlanta to lower scoring while under Zimmer. Jets and Bills could both be ineffiecient on offense(although I do like that over because it is so low). Indy may try to control the game with their O-line and running it right at Chargers(their weak spot). Dallas game I don’t really see a shootout, maybe a blowout but that is about it. HA!
    And the one game I keep coming to that could be high scoring is the Seattle game. I know they added CLowney and Cincy O-line is bad and no AJ but what if they come out firing. They have a new OC and the talk was to be more aggressive. Seattle likes to run but they also take deep shots on play action so they could score quickly.
    With Carson being chalky and nobody giving the Bengals a chance I could see this being a game nobody is going to stack. With good reason because the likelihood of the shootout is small. I am going to get a stack or 2 with this game for large field stuff. A couple Russ/Lockett/Boyd. Throw a Ross or Willis in there maybe.

  • 33BeRad

    @CleverGroom said...

    We want players in high-scoring games, on high-scoring teams. We want players who are healthy. We want TEs who are home favorites

    So Ertz/Njoku/Howard/Henry. Then add road Kelce/Kittle/Engram for shear volume. And Don’t forget Disley and Witten!

  • ASitar

    @BIF said...

    Sorry about the Allison call over MVS – still confused 🙄

    I’m playing against both Russ and Carson in my season long league so hoping all their TDs come from Penny or a Lockett reverse. I took Seattle in a couple Survivor pools so need them to win but I don’t need Russ going off.

    The LU I have w Russ/Dissley has Carson. It’s the Seahawks. Playing the Bengals. At home. No Baldwin. Grind-it-our-dink-and-dunk kinda game. Run it back w Boyd. I don’t know how owned that 4-man stack will be but I see a lot of points there and 3 of those guys are “too cheap”.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    I faded Obj in cash Bc of the hip issue. I hope this isn’t a big mistake

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @33BeRad said...

    Just doing some digging and I don’t see a lot of games I would bet the over on. So I don’t think there will be an overabundance of scoring. Trying to figure out which games could be a sneaky shootout. The heat in Florida worries me a bit for those games. The Panthers like to play slow and Goff had road struggles last year(maybe even add the west coast to east coast 1pm time game). Detroit is gonna want to play slow and if they can run they may control that, or if Arizona is inefficient in the Air Raid. Minny has done well holding Atlanta to lower scoring while under Zimmer. Jets and Bills could both be ineffiecient on offense(although I do like that over because it is so low). Indy may try to control the game with their O-line and running it right at Chargers(their weak spot). Dallas game I don’t really see a shootout, maybe a blowout but that is about it. HA!
    And the one game I keep coming to that could be high scoring is the Seattle game. I know they added CLowney and Cincy O-line is bad and no AJ but what if they come out firing. They have a new OC and the talk was to be more aggressive. Seattle likes to run but they also take deep shots on play action so they could score quickly.
    With Carson being chalky and nobody giving the Bengals a chance I could see this being a game nobody is going to stack. With good reason because the likelihood of the shootout is small. I am going to get a stack or 2 with this game for large field stuff. A couple Russ/Lockett/Boyd. Throw a Ross or Willis in there maybe.

    If you can explain to me why Boyd’s gameplay without AJ Green in a 10ish game sample size, was extremely bad, I would feel more confident in Boyd

  • mike42

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    If you can explain to me why Boyd’s gameplay without AJ Green in a 10ish game sample size, was extremely bad, I would feel more confident in Boyd

    Everyone is completely aware of how Cleveland is a better team without one of the 2 worse coaches in NFL roaming the sideline but Cincy got rid of the other one. I know the matchup up front is bad and about the 12th man but SEA has a bad secondary and cincy has a new play caller. M. Lewis wouldn’t do smart things to give his QB time and scheme his best WR open, new guy might. I read a blurb from Bernard about how excited he was to unleash new ideas. Cincy has been hearing M. Lewis voice for this whole century every Sunday until this one. We could/should see a different Cincy team and nobody is thinking that way. Dalton Vs uncommon opponent too. I didn’t like Boyd on monday but if he goes low-owned, I like him to get 8-10 tgts Vs a bad secondary with a new coach.

  • Falconsfan101

    @CleverGroom said...

    You shouldn’t expect it to be.

    TE DVP is extremely unstable year-to-year, because TEs depend so heavily on TDs, and TDs are volatile. The Browns tied for 4th most generous TE D in the NFL last year, which puts them right on the bubble as a team that we might count on remaining vulnerable.

    Weighed against that are the considerable additions to their defense, and the fact that they moved on from Gregg Williams. Now you’re looking at Steve Wilks, whose Cardinals were the 30th most generous TE D last year—another outlier number that we can expect to hold somewhat more stable year-to-year than the middle of the league.

    So, how much of CLE’s generosity was scheme and how much was personnel? Personally I’d say it was mostly Gregg Williams consistently keeping his angel safety high and/or blitzing like a wild man, clearing out space in the second level for TEs to operate. Wilks isn’t that guy. Even the addition of guys like Vernon and Richardson makes me worry that TEN will need to have 2 TEs blocking at all times just to cover down on Lewan’s absence and buy more than a split second for their shabby QBs to complete a thought (let alone a pass).

    Aside from all of that, Dr. Chao is still out on Delanie Walker. His tale of the tape is that Walker’s still hurt and can’t plant, pivot, or run fully off his bum leg. He writes:

    He was back during OTAs running drills, but expect Walker to have a slower start to the season before regaining his form. He avoids PUP but recently had said he felt 85%. Given the injury and his age, one cannot expect him to be the same as before although he could still produce. Indeed he scored a touchdown in the opening drive of the second preseason game but if you watch the play, one can see how he still favors the ankle. He can’t stop after the catch running into the wall and it is apparent that he is yet to be at 100%.

    We want players in high-scoring games, on high-scoring teams. We want players who are healthy. We want TEs who are home favorites. We want TEs against TE funnel defenses. We want to pay down at the position unless we’re buying the security of a Kelce or the outsized upside of a Howard, or a Henry, or an Ebron.

    Delanie Walker doesn’t satisfy a single criterion apart from price and ownership. He’s a profligate man’s Vernon Davis.

    Great stuff CG! Thanks.

  • ssilberman2012

    Sup guys! https://rotogrinders.com/alerts/antonio-brown-asks-the-raiders-to-release-him-3114877

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