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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic โ€“ NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Volkster6

    Nice to see Tolbert05 max entering again. Good look DK!

  • Smallchimp

    @Volkster6 said...

    Nice to see Tolbert05 max entering again. Good look DK!

    Classic case of letting hype die down then letting them go back at it lmao

  • Moszman

    What did Tolbert do?

  • bigez952

    @Moszman said...

    What did Tolbert do?

    He made an account for his wife Jade and won a playoff Milly Maker last year on Jade’s account. He eventually lost that money as it was very obvious all 300 lineups were made by 1 person. I would assume that Jade’s duplicate account got the permanent ban but I don’t really see an issue with letting Tolbert keep his account to continue to put in 150 lineups as long as he isn’t putting in 300 like he was last year.

  • odanny

    The line on the Rams/Cowboys is Dallas -2.5

  • Smallchimp

    My bad, updated!

  • Smallchimp

    One of the more “grain of salt” sources, but PFF has San Francisco with the 10th ranked secondary and Chicago with the 20th going into the season. Anyone going a little heavier on Murray/Kirk/Fitz stacks and Stafford/Golladay/Jones stacks? Both defenses seem beatable if that’s the case and might come in lesser owned from the public

  • Csquared1987

    @Smallchimp said...

    One of the more “grain of salt” sources, but PFF has San Francisco with the 10th ranked secondary and Chicago with the 20th going into the season. Anyone going a little heavier on Murray/Kirk/Fitz stacks and Stafford/Golladay/Jones stacks? Both defenses seem beatable if that’s the case and might come in lesser owned from the public

    Murray/Kirk/Fitz๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

    No Hopkins…?

  • Volkster6

    @bigez952 said...

    He made an account for his wife Jade and won a playoff Milly Maker last year on Jade’s account. He eventually lost that money as it was very obvious all 300 lineups were made by 1 person. I would assume that Jade’s duplicate account got the permanent ban but I don’t really see an issue with letting Tolbert keep his account to continue to put in 150 lineups as long as he isn’t putting in 300 like he was last year.

    Who is going to police him? Because the collective DFS family uncovered it and DK looked the other way for a long time… then basically did nothing. Now heโ€™s entering again, which isnโ€™t even a full years ban! Who cares if Jades account got shut down, Tanner was the cheater!

    MME with caution folks

  • Smallchimp

    TBD on Hopkin’s hamstring. I’m fine going with him if he looks all systems go the week leading up to Week 1 but I’m somewhat hesitant. The volume is probably high enough where Kirk/Fitz aren’t single digit scorers either way. I should’ve put the p.s. about Hopkins in the first message haha

  • infantryboys

    I’d be careful with WRs on new teams and players with new OCs.

  • squidkill

    What up peeps …???

  • OttawaCityMadman

    @squidkill said...

    What up peeps …???

    First season long question for ya! Will the season go long? ;p

  • squidkill

    @OttawaCityMadman said...

    First season long question for ya! Will the season go long? ;p

    It will start…… even more reason to not play season long ๐Ÿ˜‚

  • OttawaCityMadman

    @squidkill said...

    It will start…… even more reason to not play season long ๐Ÿ˜‚

    Truer words have rarely been spoken…

  • thedkexperience

    This thread makes me feel like a Yeti awakening from a great slumber.

    Anyway, I think Iโ€™m going to chill on double stacks this year a bit. Sure, they work, but like baseball I think stacking has jumped the shark a bit. It reminds me of when slow playing in poker became the โ€œinโ€ thing to do, and then a year or 2 later every player thought they were a genius because they realized they can check raise.

    Ultimately heavily stacking a single game in a full slate tournament seems like the thing that people who are 2 years behind the trends will be doing as their super smart idea to win millions this year. So, with that, Iโ€™m going to zig while they zag and go back to a more traditional way of playing this season.

    Anyway, here are a few early players I like on FD.

    QB – Wilson (ATL games are track meets)

    RB – Chubb (heโ€™s going to be low owned due to an injury, the Ravens D and Hunt. Now go look at his game logs against the Ravens. ๐Ÿ˜ณ)

    WR – Diggs (I have no idea why everyone is down on him. Heโ€™s a number 1 option on a playoff team that has an erratic QB and a mediocre running game. Last year he got 1200 yards as the number 2 option on a team with an erratic QB that had a great running game.)

    TE – Kittle against Arizona lol

    D – Eagles against Dwayne Haskins and the Washington Football Tire Fire

  • CleverGroom

    Somehow…

    …it just…

    …kinda feels…

    …like a Blount week.

  • thedkexperience

    @CleverGroom said...

    Somehow…

    …it just…

    …kinda feels…

    …like a Blount week.

    The Chip Kelly era folks! ๐Ÿคฃ

  • CleverGroom

    @Csquared1987 said...

    Murray/Kirk/Fitz๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚

    No Hopkins…?

    DeAndre Hopkins is almost certainly a fade for me. New offense, new team, and a radically diminished target expectation all bode poorly for a guy whose career has been built mostly on volume.

    What impressed me most about Kyler Murray last year was how well he protected the football despite his high attempts and low experience (just a 2.21% INT rate and 5 fumbles for 2 FL—both of which came in a single Rams game). Otherwise, my sense is one of a workmanlike passer thus far, and a conservative one at that. Nuk isn’t going to come open the way Christian Kirk or even Larry Fitzgerald might: he finished 2019 in the 8th percentile cushion and 37th percentile separation, per Next Gen Stats. Kirk finished in the 69th and 91st percentiles, and Larry in the 76th and 56th percentiles, respectively. As for Kyler himself, just 14% of his throws were made into tight windows last year, per Next Gen Stats, good for a 21st percentile finish.

    Putting it all together, my read is that separation matters more to Kyler than it did to DeShaun Watson (15.8% of throws into tight windows; 45th percentile) or Tom Savage. I’m going to need to see that Nuk’s where he’s supposed to be and Kyler’s comfortable throwing to him in coverage before I believe it. In the meantime, you’re paying a 10- or 12-target/game price for a guy who’s probably more like a 7.5- or 8.5-target/game value in 2020.

    ARI interests me less than the SF side in that game, or either side of CHI at DET. Kyler’s loaded with potential, but his conservatism has capped his upside to date. I don’t expect Week 1, 2020, visiting the Niners, to be the week he’s broken of those habits. The board’s loaded with cheaper, less scrupulous QBs.

  • AVivier

    @CleverGroom said...

    The boardโ€™s loaded with cheaper, less scrupulous QBs.

    May as well just say Mitch Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins and get some fun around here lol

  • CleverGroom

    @thedkexperience said...

    Ultimately heavily stacking a single game in a full slate tournament seems like the thing that people who are 2 years behind the trends will be doing as their super smart idea to win millions this year. So, with that, Iโ€™m going to zig while they zag and go back to a more traditional way of playing this season.

    My sense—from analyses of historical data, admittedly—is that to win large-field GPPs, you mostly want to stack your QB with two teammates and one opponent. Your EV decreases in nonlinear fashion as you add or remove players from that 3/1 stack.

    N.b. this is a sort of Bayesian optimum and not an absolute rule: the implied task is to construct your core around this principle rather than to use it exclusively. DST doesn’t necessarily fit into this model one way or another.

    My biggest issue with Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson is their salaries, but I’m sure that’s especially meaningless on FD. Chances are that we’ll see a few more exploded tendons, pulled hammies, and/or COVID diagnoses before kickoff, so maybe nothing matters.

    Nothing.

    Nothing at all.

    Enjoy Arby’s.

    Nick Chubb has a total of 250 yards, 5 catches, and 2 TDs against the Ravens…plus an 88-yard run for a 3rd TD, because former Baltimore Raven Earl Thomas hadn’t yet groked that he was #Dusty #TentTime and took the wrong angle entirely.

    That whole game—the only one where Chubb’s ever posted a meaningful line against the Ravens—began with Brandon Williams inactive and rapidly degenerated into a comedy of missed tackles. I count…four Ravens who had a shot at Chubb on his first TD and they all managed to whiff. Only one of those got recorded as a missed tackle by PFR, mind you, but I still credit an uncharacteristically poor effort by the Ravens D for that box score much more than I credit Chubb. Indeed, when the Ravens visited Chubb later in the season with Williams active, they held him to just 15-45-0 rushing and 1 target for bupkis.

    Of course, the Browns lost that game 15-31, where they’d won the previous game 40-25. This illustrates the main problem with Chubb: he’s not used in the passing game and is thus highly game-script dependent. Will that change under Stefanski? Perhaps. I tend to think they’ll go on favoring Kareem Hunt in that role instead. Hunt’s receiving stats to date are comprehensively superior.

    Of all 32 teams in the NFL, the Ravens are the ones I trust most during a weird, compressed schedule. Full stop. They dominate the preseason every year, and to me, September 2020 feels like it’s gonna be pretty close to that. I just don’t expect a rookie head coach to come into their building and give them the business Week 1. Vegas tends to agree, having installed BAL as one of the most favored teams at -9. I’d have to imagine a world where that’s utterly wrong and the Ravens get blown out before I could imagine a path to value for Chubb.

    I’m a huge Stefon Diggs fan. I want to love the Bills players in that game, trust me, but where’s the juice? What’s the final score? It’s one of the lowest totals on the board at 40 and I seriously think that’s at least 10 points too high. I have so little faith that the Jets can keep it interesting.

    Aside from all of that, we’ve got the classic Pricey WR on a New Offense problem. He’s not as cheap as John Brown was in almost the same spot last year. Smoke’s still there too, which doesn’t help Diggs’ target projection; they can wind up hurting each other if they ultimately split all of the catchable deep balls from Josh Allen. Not sure we’ll get many in this spot.

    A less important aside is that I trust Diggs more on turf than outdoors. Guess we’d better get used to it.

    George Kittle alone is not enough SF TEs. We can do better.

    WAS stacks might be core for me. But that’s neither here, nor there; my objection to PHI DST is strictly that they’re too expensive.

    Unless…nothing matters. Nothing.

    Nothing at all matters.

    But even then, close your eyes and roster a random DST that fits. This is the way.

  • CleverGroom

    @AVivier said...

    May as well just say Mitch Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins and get some fun around here lol

  • squidkill

    @CleverGroom said...

    My sense—from analyses of historical data, admittedly—is that to win large-field GPPs, you mostly want to stack your QB with two teammates and one opponent. Your EV decreases in nonlinear fashion as you add or remove players from that 3/1 stack.

    N.b. this is a sort of Bayesian optimum and not an absolute rule: the implied task is to construct your core around this principle rather than to use it exclusively. DST doesn’t necessarily fit into this model one way or another.

    My biggest issue with Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson is their salaries, but I’m sure that’s especially meaningless on FD. Chances are that we’ll see a few more exploded tendons, pulled hammies, and/or COVID diagnoses before kickoff, so maybe nothing matters.

    Nothing.

    Nothing at all.

    Enjoy Arby’s.

    Nick Chubb has a total of 250 yards, 5 catches, and 2 TDs against the Ravens…plus an 88-yard run for a 3rd TD, because former Baltimore Raven Earl Thomas hadn’t yet groked that he was #Dusty #TentTime and took the wrong angle entirely.

    That whole game—the only one where Chubb’s ever posted a meaningful line against the Ravens—began with Brandon Williams inactive and rapidly degenerated into a comedy of missed tackles. I count…four Ravens who had a shot at Chubb on his first TD and they all managed to whiff. Only one of those got recorded as a missed tackle by PFR, mind you, but I still credit an uncharacteristically poor effort by the Ravens D for that box score much more than I credit Chubb. Indeed, when the Ravens visited Chubb later in the season with Williams active, they held him to just 15-45-0 rushing and 1 target for bupkis.

    Of course, the Browns lost that game 15-31, where they’d won the previous game 40-25. This illustrates the main problem with Chubb: he’s not used in the passing game and is thus highly game-script dependent. Will that change under Stefanski? Perhaps. I tend to think they’ll go on favoring Kareem Hunt in that role instead. Hunt’s receiving stats to date are comprehensively superior.

    Of all 32 teams in the NFL, the Ravens are the ones I trust most during a weird, compressed schedule. Full stop. They dominate the preseason every year, and to me, September 2020 feels like it’s gonna be pretty close to that. I just don’t expect a rookie head coach to come into their building and give them the business Week 1. Vegas tends to agree, having installed BAL as one of the most favored teams at -9. I’d have to imagine a world where that’s utterly wrong and the Ravens get blown out before I could imagine a path to value for Chubb.

    I’m a huge Stefon Diggs fan. I want to love the Bills players in that game, trust me, but where’s the juice? What’s the final score? It’s one of the lowest totals on the board at 40 and I seriously think that’s at least 10 points too high. I have so little faith that the Jets can keep it interesting.

    Aside from all of that, we’ve got the classic Pricey WR on a New Offense problem. He’s not as cheap as John Brown was in almost the same spot last year. Smoke’s still there too, which doesn’t help Diggs’ target projection; they can wind up hurting each other if they ultimately split all of the catchable deep balls from Josh Allen. Not sure we’ll get many in this spot.

    A less important aside is that I trust Diggs more on turf than outdoors. Guess we’d better get used to it.

    George Kittle alone is not enough SF TEs. We can do better.

    WAS stacks might be core for me. But that’s neither here, nor there; my objection to PHI DST is strictly that they’re too expensive.

    Unless…nothing matters. Nothing.

    Nothing at all matters.

    But even then, close your eyes and roster a random DST that fits. This is the way.

    Yo playboy!!

  • CleverGroom

    @squidkill said...

    Yo playboy!!

  • Playtaw1n

    For tournaments I think Chubb is a good play because I think thereโ€™s a decent chance he does get that positive game script and the matchup is good.

    The Ravens were average to below average in most pro football outsiders rushing statistics: 24th in power, 16th in stuffed, 16th in 2nd level yards and 28th in open field yards.

    They added: Calais Campbell, Patrick Queen, Derek Wolfe and whatever is left of Pernell McPhee

    They lost: Michael Pierce, Tony Jefferson, Earl Thomas, Brandon Carr and Josh Bynes

    Campbell is an upgrade inside for sure.

    Iโ€™m not optimistic about them starting two rookie linebackers especially with the way weโ€™ve seen the top prospects transition to the nfl the last few years.

    The browns upgraded their tackle position as much in one season as you possibly could. Adding hooper/keeping njoku means we should expect a ton of 12 personnel and that is how you would want to attack this ravens defense the way itโ€™s built.

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