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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • infantryboys

    @rstylz said...

    I know nothing about football. Basketball guy.

    Got offered a free ticket if i put a $5 deposit in.

    Where should i start?

    Honestly I don’t think it’s worth the time and effort to try to learn a sport from scratch over a $5 ticket.

    If I was given a $5 ticket in say, NHL I’d probably use an optimizer LU and hope for the best, honestly.

  • JCappy

    I really have to wonder about Antonio Gibson here. If Gibson were to not exist, Washington would have a complete backfield as far as roles go … even if they aren’t a talented bunch.

    Bryce Love could take early down work. JD can take passing down work. Barber can take goal line and short yardage work.

    That being said — it appears like Gibson is the most talented of the bunch. He is the one most likely to get 20+ touches. I still see a heavy underdog going against an elite DL.

    I think I’ll be underweight.

  • AVivier

    @rstylz said...

    I know nothing about football. Basketball guy.

    Got offered a free ticket if i put a $5 deposit in.

    Where should i start?

    1) Pick a QB.

    2) Match him up with a WR and a TE or a second WR from his team.

    3) Pick a WR or TE on the opposing team.

    4) Pick a WR or RB for your flex

    5) RBs should be starters for their team

    6) Pick defense randomly

    7) ….

    8) Profit

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @infantryboys said...

    Honestly I don’t think it’s worth the time and effort to try to learn a sport from scratch over a $5 ticket.

    If I was given a $5 ticket in say, NHL I’d probably use an optimizer LU and hope for the best, honestly.

    That’s some solid advice. Nice to see you again, taking good care of my Porsche? 😂

  • infantryboys

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    That’s some solid advice. Nice to see you again, taking good care of my Porsche? 😂

    Had to get the water pump replaced. Good to go now.

  • 49noobers

    I am leaning towards 3 work horse RBs builds in around 2/3 of my LUs for MM. I am likely playing 40 or so LUs as DK MM entry is $5.

    Lack of pre season should hurt WRs more than RBs , in terms of fantasy production imo. I am also planning to target more players from teams with coaching staff/ players/qb continuity. Might take longer for players to buy into a totally different system under new head coach .

  • 49noobers

    @squidkill said...

    “”“”““I want to belive that this year is my year, I will win a million. :P”“”“”

    Let me burst your bubble and tell you you will NOT win the milly maker this year-
    If you want to get serious an be an improved player, you def. can. Thinking you are gonna try to get better so you can win the Milly is clown shoes thinking.
    Millionaire Maker is an absolute money pit. If you are a losing player and playing the MM then you might as well buy a $20 scratch ticket every sunday morning- Knowing what contests to enter is so vital to your success. No paid sub will help you win the MM. That contest is for donkeys and/or 150/LU optimizers with 3k to burn each week.

    Thanks. I plan to mix in double ups and single entry GPPs this year as well.

  • rstylz

    Thanks, i just picked names i knew lol. I might have the oldest DFS lu ever

  • JTAx33

    TB/NO seems like such a trap as the highest OU of the week.

  • infantryboys

    @JTAx33 said...

    TB/NO seems like such a trap as the highest OU of the week.

    It does. Brady isn’t going to be winging the ball all over the field like Winston did. Plus with all the hype about Brady, influx of casual fans Week 1, and the OU, there should be high ownership connected to this game.

  • JTAx33

    @infantryboys said...

    It does. Brady isn’t going to be winging the ball all over the field like Winston did. Plus with all the hype about Brady, influx of casual fans Week 1, and the OU, there should be high ownership connected to this game.

    Very rare that the highest OU on the slate won’t even get any attention in my cash lineup

  • parrothead112

    Would you apply this strategy to cash games ?

  • theIrrigator

    @infantryboys said...

    It does. Brady isn’t going to be winging the ball all over the field like Winston did. Plus with all the hype about Brady, influx of casual fans Week 1, and the OU, there should be high ownership connected to this game.

    Is that not an Arians style offense? Throw it around the yard? Plus it’s in the super dome. But i do agree that it will have heavy ownership

  • AdamBski

    @CleverGroom said...

    How does a QB get to 30 DKFP?

    325 yards passing, 4 passing TDs, 2 INT/FL, 0 rushing yards.

    325 yards passing, 3 passing TDs, 20 rushing yards.

    200 yards passing, 3 passing TDs, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD.

    200 yards passing, 2 passing TDs, 110 rushing yards.

    Some examples to think about.

    I don’t think the trick in large-field GPPs is identifying who has the upside for 30+ DKFP: guys who we can project to touch the ball on ~98-100% of offensive snaps always have a path to 30+, however unlikely it might be. The trick is to identify inefficiencies in the market.

    Which QBs’ salaries don’t reflect their likelihood to post a GPP-winning score? Fantasy scoring correlates well to salary, as a rule. Where is the correlation off? If you can pay less for a 30+ QB than your opponents, you can probably field a better roster overall.

    Which QBs will not be rostered often enough by our opponents, relative to their chances? If Dwayne Haskins Jr. has a 2% chance of being the optimal play on the slate but our opponents only roster him on 0.1% of their LUs, we could gain an edge by playing Haskins.

    It should go without saying that we can’t play everybody, of course. You want to make judgments about these games, and lean in when your opinions stand to differentiate you from the field. That’s the bit we’re trying to get to here: where is the public and/or the DK salary algorithm significantly underestimating a guy you see as having a path?

    This is run-of-the-mill GPP game theory stuff. I want to focus on getting that right more than I want to tell myself ghost stories about how Mitchell Trubisky, who I don’t like as a player, whose team I’ve already written off as a distant 4th-place in their own division, couldn’t possibly shock the world and post a Milly-winner for, what? The third time in his career?

    There’s not many guys I can dismiss if I can’t dismiss Mr. Biscuit. The dude was coming off a 7.6 DKFP game against the 3-13 Steve Wilks Cardinals when he binked his first Milly. He doesn’t pass the eye test. He’s not an accurate passer. He doesn’t have a special arm. He’s played about as sharp as his 27th-percentile Wonderlic predicted. Everybody but the front office of the Chicago Bears has long ago accepted that he was a comically hubristic draft bust. But any given Sunday, man…any given Sunday, he could have the sauce.

    Related: Mr. Biscuit is officially starting against the Detroit Lions Week 1.

    CG, I really appreciate your insight and game theory/analysis. I will be pulling the trigger on Trubisky week 1 no doubt… maybe it’s because I’m from Chicago and by default I have to run with the bears…maybe it’s the fact that he’s literally gonna be playing to keep his starting position… or maybe it’s because he’s gonna go criminally low owned in GPPs. But you’re definitely right… he did win some lucky shmuck a nice Milly before … I think week 1 is the window to play Mitchell.

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @AdamBski said...

    CG, I really appreciate your insight and game theory/analysis. I will be pulling the trigger on Trubisky week 1 no doubt… maybe it’s because I’m from Chicago and by default I have to run with the bears…maybe it’s the fact that he’s literally gonna be playing to keep his starting position… or maybe it’s because he’s gonna go criminally low owned in GPPs. But you’re definitely right… he did win some lucky shmuck a nice Milly before … I think week 1 is the window to play Mitchell.

    I can’t do it. I have no trust in mitch at all. I’m not saying either of you is wrong, but after digging around tonight I’ll definitely have some Tyrod. Price is comparable to mitch, and even though he’s older now I don’t think he’s afraid to scramble and add points on the ground which obviously hasn’t happened with rivers. Also wondering the impact that has on ekeler, as rivers would dump it off to him Tyrod may take it himself

  • AdamBski

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    I can’t do it. I have no trust in mitch at all. I’m not saying either of you is wrong, but after digging around tonight I’ll definitely have some Tyrod. Price is comparable to mitch, and even though he’s older now I don’t think he’s afraid to scramble and add points on the ground which obviously hasn’t happened with rivers. Also wondering the impact that has on ekeler, as rivers would dump it off to him Tyrod may take it himself

    For 100$ more on DK than what Tyrod costs, you might be better off playing Baker, higher projections and lower ownership numbers… plus after a let down season last year, I think they bounce back nicely… they might even beat my beloved Ravens week 1. FWIW I’m gonna be going heavy on both Mitchell and Baker… Carr and Bridgewater have big appeal too… very easy to stack that game and flip flop the QB position… both are 5900..

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @AdamBski said...

    For 100$ more on DK than what Tyrod costs, you might be better off playing Baker, higher projections and lower ownership numbers… plus after a let down season last year, I think they bounce back nicely… they might even beat my beloved Ravens week 1. FWIW I’m gonna be going heavy on both Mitchell and Baker… Carr and Bridgewater have big appeal too… very easy to stack that game and flip flop the QB position… both are 5900..

    Did that ravens defense take a hit in the offseason? I’ll have to check but last year it wasn’t a defense I really wanted to have players going against. They still have solid corners with hump and Jimmy I think

  • BIF

    @JTAx33 said...

    TB/NO seems like such a trap as the highest OU of the week.

    True but you know it’s not going to finish 17-14 either.

    I just think everyone is a bit expensive given the number of useable pieces – there are 8-10 guys you could actually consider playing in this game

    Total points scored in past matchups:
    2019 – 55 & 51
    2018 – 88 & 42
    2017 – 40 & 55

    I know this year is different but these teams have had zero problem scoring against each other.

  • cheezpizza

    Cohen has to be chalk at his price and usage vs the Lions, right?

  • byo34

    Liking Chargers D week 1. Rookie QB with no preseason action.. could get messy.

    Great.. only 8 more roster spots to worry about!

  • BIF

    @byo34 said...

    Liking Chargers D week 1. Rookie QB with no preseason action.. could get messy.

    Great.. only 8 more roster spots to worry about!

    I’m not sure – I like Burrow more than I like the LAC D.

    That rookie QB has a ton of great targets in AJ Green, Boyd, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate, John Ross, Eifert and Mixon/Bernard

    He probably has a Top 8 stable of pass catchers at his disposal and is a more mature rookie QB than you usually see as a 5th year senior and coach’s son; people loved Mahomes because his dad was a pro ball player – well Burrow’s dad played football in the NFL/CFL and was a NCAA coach for many years.

  • BIF

    @cheezpizza said...

    Cohen has to be chalk at his price and usage vs the Lions, right?

    He should be popular and I’ll likely sprinkle a couple Cohen in but I don’t trust that offense to do enough to make this a table-pounding must play guy. Also wonder how much work the other backs there are going to get as Cohen has never really carried a big load and with his size it is unlikely he is the goalline back

  • byo34

    @BIF said...

    I’m not sure – I like Burrow more than I like the LAC D.

    That rookie QB has a ton of great targets in AJ Green, Boyd, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate, John Ross, Eifert and Mixon/Bernard

    He probably has a Top 8 stable of pass catchers at his disposal and is a more mature rookie QB than you usually see as a 5th year senior and coach’s son; people loved Mahomes because his dad was a pro ball player – well Burrow’s dad played football in the NFL/CFL and was a NCAA coach for many years.

    I don’t disagree with anything you said, I like Burrow long term, just not sold on him right out the gate week 1. He may even just go out right away and kill it, just hoping theres a pick 6 in there to go with it!

    We will see what happens! You can track Joey Bosa and the Chargers D on my squad in the Happy-er meal ;)

  • parrothead112

    @AVivier said...

    1) Pick a QB.

    2) Match him up with a WR and a TE or a second WR from his team.

    3) Pick a WR or TE on the opposing team.

    4) Pick a WR or RB for your flex

    5) RBs should be starters for their team

    6) Pick defense randomly

    7) ….

    8) Profit

    Would you apply this strategy to cash games ?

  • NDNole

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    I can’t do it. I have no trust in mitch at all. I’m not saying either of you is wrong, but after digging around tonight I’ll definitely have some Tyrod. Price is comparable to mitch, and even though he’s older now I don’t think he’s afraid to scramble and add points on the ground which obviously hasn’t happened with rivers. Also wondering the impact that has on ekeler, as rivers would dump it off to him Tyrod may take it himself

    Tyrod is ULTRA safe player. He does not go for it, almost ever. He will check it down or hold on to it before risking an int. Too many times he frustrated me with the safe play. Im gonna pass on him. Good qb in the average range in real life. In dfs forget about it lol.

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