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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • cheezpizza

    @BIF said...

    He should be popular and I’ll likely sprinkle a couple Cohen in but I don’t trust that offense to do enough to make this a table-pounding must play guy. Also wonder how much work the other backs there are going to get as Cohen has never really carried a big load and with his size it is unlikely he is the goalline back

    I was looking at their other options and it just doesn’t look good.
    I know he’s not used to it, but i figure theyre gonna get him 20-25 total touches and at 4.9k on DK that has nice playability.

  • cheezpizza

    @squidkill said...

    “”“”““I want to belive that this year is my year, I will win a million. :P”“”“”

    Let me burst your bubble and tell you you will NOT win the milly maker this year-
    If you want to get serious an be an improved player, you def. can. Thinking you are gonna try to get better so you can win the Milly is clown shoes thinking.
    Millionaire Maker is an absolute money pit. If you are a losing player and playing the MM then you might as well buy a $20 scratch ticket every sunday morning- Knowing what contests to enter is so vital to your success. No paid sub will help you win the MM. That contest is for donkeys and/or 150/LU optimizers with 3k to burn each week.

    I get what you’re saying and as someone who has won multiple contests, i know the improbable odds of winning a MM.
    But that doesn’t stop me from throwing a single bullet into one every week.
    All it takes is one winning $20 scratcher and im gone.
    “Up and vanished like a fart in the wind.”

  • markymark13

    Might take a couple shots at a cheap Phins D/”(player-popup #jordan-howard)Jordan Howard”:/players/jordan-howard-35446 stack. Not completely sold on Cam, and Brian Flores knows the Pats better than anyone. Just have to hope Howard can fall into the end zone a couple times

  • CleverGroom

    @BIF said...

    That rookie QB has a ton of great targets in AJ Green, Boyd, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate, John Ross, Eifert and Mixon/Bernard

    Truth be told, I’m not excited about any of Joey B’s weapons, aside from Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross.

    Giovani Bernard only serves to detract from Mixon’s receiving role. AJG is washed until proven otherwise, coming off multiple weeks of—you guessed it—a hamstring injury. Green’s age-32 season would be a good time to start fading him even if his 20+ DKFP performance wasn’t…[checks notes]…686 days ago. Tate is a sluggish possession receiver who shouldn’t get more than 6 targets in a game unless everybody else has been ejected or carted off. Higgins is a rookie with a lot of bodies to work his way past (and he’s on the slower side too). Tyler Eifert is starting for the Jaguars now, so the actual TEs are Drew Sample and C.J. Uzomah, which is to say, nothing.

    As for the studs, Mixon has RB1 overall upside if they increase his role in the receiving game. Status quo pegs him as a phenomenal runner who put up four 100+ rushing games in just about the most adverse conditions imaginable last year. Burrow’s mere presence can improve on that. I doubt that the OL will play well for a few weeks at the very least, but they’re adding 2019 1st-round LT Jonah Williams. It’s almost impossible for them to be worse than last year.

    Boyd should slide right in as Burrow’s new Justin Jefferson, who led LSU’s targets and put up 111-1540-18 last year. Like Mixon, he’s been a stud even under appalling conditions.

    Ross has been on the injury report with an arm injury, so his speed should be fine. I’m always interested in a cheap, under-owned guy with 4.2 speed, playing in a game I like, with a QB I want to be stacking. That speed is never more important than it is in Week 1.

    Because it will be asked, LAC’s corners should be Casey Hayward and Michael Davis outside, with Chris Harris Jr. in the slot. I don’t consider Davis elite, and I don’t consider Harris elite anymore at age 31. Hayward is the meaningful challenge. He won’t follow Boyd into the slot, he won’t shadow the likes of Ross, and he ran a 4.57 at the combine. It’s AJG, Tate, and Higgins who project for some rough trade at Hayward’s hands. The matchups for Boyd and Ross are unremarkable.

    Whatever the dangers posed by the LAC D as a whole and their pass rush in particular, Derwin James’ latest injury takes a lot of wind from their sails. I was going to play Burrow stacks before he went down. You better believe I’m here for it now.

  • CleverGroom

    @cheezpizza said...

    Cohen has to be chalk at his price and usage vs the Lions, right?

    Tarik Cohen is definitely in play. I’m not sure he’ll be chalk, and I don’t think he should be. He averaged 4 carries and 6.5 targets per game last year, yet never cracked 20 DKFP once. He’s probably not very good. His offense isn’t very good. My sense is that he’ll be splitting work with Cordarrelle Patterson, who makes for a bizarre, interesting play as a $3,400 WR on DK.

    I’ll own both of them, but I’m only playing large-field GPPs. I don’t think either one is a lock for double-digit touches.

  • CleverGroom

    @markymark13 said...

    Might take a couple shots at a cheap Phins D/”(player-popup #jordan-howard)Jordan Howard”:/players/jordan-howard-35446 stack. Not completely sold on Cam, and Brian Flores knows the Pats better than anyone. Just have to hope Howard can fall into the end zone a couple times

    RB/DST correlation has been highlighted recently by 4for4 as a bad play in the Milly. There’s a few things that I think are happening here.

    First, RB/DST correlation is true broadly but not necessarily true in every specific case. CMC and CAR DST probably aren’t correlated well (if at all) because CMC is game-script independent. He might even convert carries into more valuable targets in games where the DST is struggling. Howard/MIA probably passes this test, but not necessarily Ekeler/LAC, Cook/MIN, Gibson/WAS, or White/NE, to name a few.

    Second, people are probably jamming in expensive DSTs and feeling better about it because of the correlation. Expensive DSTs are almost always bad. They were historically good last year because of NE in particular, but we should prepare for regression to the mean. It’s usually much better to play the odds with several cheap, viable options than to bet it all on black.

    Finally, people are probably weighting RB/DST correlation too heavily and overlooking everything else that factors into a strong DST play. What drives DST scoring? Drop-backs lead to pressures, pressures lead to hits, hits lead to sacks, sacks lead to turnovers, turnovers lead to TDs. Points allowed doesn’t matter. All we want is to find the teams that will face more passing attempts. OLs influence rate stats like sacks, but sacks are a QB stat as much as anything. So are INTs.

    To summarize, I suspect RB/DST is overused because when you make that your primary criterion for selecting a DST, you overlook or minimize more important factors such as salary, ownership, and matchup/game environment.

    All of that said, I’ll own MIA DST. I’m less likely to own Jordan Howard. He’s the biggest problem for me because frankly, he might garner more ownership than MIA DST to begin with, and $5,100 and a RB slot is worth a lot more than 20 DKFP flat in a large-field GPP. He’d probably need a 3rd TD or 100 rushing yards to be on the Milly-winning LU. He has no receiving upside, especially with the addition of Lynn Bowden Jr. Very tough road for him to push toward 30 DKFP.

    You’re banking on something like the Nick Chubb at BAL game last year, and I don’t know if Howard can find that extra gear to run 80 yards on a play, even if NE blows the tackles. His season-long run has declined every year since he’s been in the league. He’s had 2+ TDs in 12% of his career games. He has two career games of 3 TDs. Two games of 20+ DKFP in the past two seasons. All of his previous teams had better OLs. Matt Breida will compete for all of the high-leverage touches in that offense that Breida doesn’t command outright. Ultimately a thin-looking play to my eye.

  • markymark13

    Appreciate the reply. Should have prefaced it by saying I have a bunch of tickets on Fanduel. I agree that Howard is a poor play on DK. I think he has a little more merit on Fanduel where receiving ability isn’t as important

  • Dfspacman

    With no noise from fans aren’t QB’s likely to have an advantage?

  • CleverGroom

    @markymark13 said...

    Appreciate the reply. Should have prefaced it by saying I have a bunch of tickets on Fanduel. I agree that Howard is a poor play on DK. I think he has a little more merit on Fanduel where receiving ability isn’t as important

    I assume their salary cap is still loose enough as to be almost meaningless. Mostly just the RB slot where you’ve got to make sure you’re getting enough value back.

  • markymark13

    You are probably right. Definitely not a play I will go overboard with. Really appreciate the insightful response

  • monarch

    CG-Raiders drafted Lynn Bowden Jr all purpose out of Kentucky

    Edit: my mistake, I didn’t realized they traded him to Miami

  • BIF

    @CleverGroom said...

    Truth be told, I’m not excited about any of Joey B’s weapons, aside from Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross.

    Agree from a DFS perspective but collectively he has more to work with than almost all past recent Top 5 picks at QB have had.

    I just think between Burrow and that unit will be able to score a bit and for the most part limit DFS team Defenses to put up huge games – he is smart enough to limit the mistakes.

    I’d actually be excited about his future if I had any faith that the Bengals won’t screw up future drafts and FA moves in an effort to build around him.

  • CleverGroom

    @BIF said...

    Agree from a DFS perspective but collectively he has more to work with than almost all past recent Top 5 picks at QB have had.

    Totes, that’s true. Boyd and Ross are certainly blessed to have decoys who can draw Hayward’s ire. I’m very excited to see how the Bengals O fares this year.

    The top-5 QB who I fear for this year—besides Darnold, bless his poor heart—is Baker Mayfield. I keep having this chilling premonition of him getting benched at or before their Week 9 bye for Case Keenum. Case is a much better fit for this Kubiakesque offense. The front office and coaching staff who drafted and groomed Baker have been swept out. What are the odds, any given season, that the Browns keep their QB, HC, and GM all together for consecutive years? Baker could be the weakest link this time around.

  • TJRhodes

    With AD going to the lions, I guess KJ and the whole DET running game isn’t in play now if it ever was. So we’re looking at Gibson, Cohen, and Mack as the budget RBs with the least timeshare issues? I noticed they are now saying Mack is going to get more usage in the passing game.

  • steveharvey

    Hope DJAX isn’t too chalky. WAS doesn’t have an answer for him

  • wilks3579

    @steveharvey said...

    Hope DJAX isn’t too chalky. WAS doesn’t have an answer for him

    Check out J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE in place of DJAX. Lower ownership, only 3900 (compared to 4900 for DeSean), going against that same Wash defense, 6’ 2” and big bodied, he’s also 10 years younger than DJAX and could easily produce more DKFP than DJAX in week 1.

  • Straightfire118

    @steveharvey said...

    Hope DJAX isn’t too chalky. WAS doesn’t have an answer for him

    Djax getting hurt is probably a lock. Probably gets hurt in the first quarter.

  • Straightfire118

    28 players/dst’s on 20 lineups LFG. Not one mention of my qb either which is nice.

  • NDNole

    @wilks3579 said...

    Check out J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE in place of DJAX. Lower ownership, only 3900 (compared to 4900 for DeSean), going against that same Wash defense, 6’ 2” and big bodied, he’s also 10 years younger than DJAX and could easily produce more DKFP than DJAX in week 1.

    Even in his old age djax could give jj a 10 yard headstart and probably still win a 60 yard race. Maybe slightly exxagerated but just stating djax is still very fast.

  • squidkill

    @wilks3579 said...

    Check out J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE in place of DJAX. Lower ownership, only 3900 (compared to 4900 for DeSean), going against that same Wash defense, 6’ 2” and big bodied, he’s also 10 years younger than DJAX and could easily produce more DKFP than DJAX in week 1.

    nah. i’m good.

  • squidkill

    @wilks3579 said...

    Check out J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE in place of DJAX. Lower ownership, only 3900 (compared to 4900 for DeSean), going against that same Wash defense, 6’ 2” and big bodied, he’s also 10 years younger than DJAX and could easily produce more DKFP than DJAX in week 1.

    actually an awful NFL player. putrid tbh

  • miggs6876

    Anyone have any thoughts on the fd Houstonn/KC million dollar show down? I won a $9 ticket and I very rarely play show downs. Initially penciled in both QBs with T. Hill as the captain.. Any thoughts are great.

  • beare

    anyone else on indy d week 1?

    also is howard starter for miami some sites are showing breida?

  • CleverGroom

    With 15 drafts completed, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is currently my most-owned WR in best ball.

  • Smallchimp

    Wilks, the appeal of DJax is that when he’s healthy, he’s one of the fastest play speed players in the league. Early season, especially this one where teams have less preseason to work off rust, his speed does not forgive miscues on defense and 2 catches could be 2 touchdowns.

    The annoying thing is that he is projected to be a common play. The nice thing is that he can be peppered with targets and still get a floor based on reception volume (which is a real possibility for this team in Week 1).

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