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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • CleverGroom

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    CG what about those Patriots rookie TEs? You only mentioned Ryan Izzo? Any intel?

    Also guys I like a lot that I have not seen mentioned:

    – Chris Carson if low-owned for leverage over that chalky game – Adam Thielen and all that volume – Miles Boykin for large-field GPP

    The rookies have been banged up throughout camp, are potentially fungible/indistinguishable from each other, and should both start behind Izzo. It’s not like I want to play rookie TEs. It’s not like I want to play Ryan Izzo. It’s not like I adore that game. It’s interesting, but I’m not looking for reasons to roster bad TE plays in a week where we have so many good TE plays.

    Miles Boykin is a go for me.

    Adam Thielen is one of the most confounding players for me to predict this year. He’s getting older, and certainly he’s had injuries of late. I’m not sure the loss of Stefon Diggs is good news for him. His slot usage has been down in the Kubiak scheme; that’s definitely not going to change with the addition of Justin Jefferson and what I hope will be a breakout year for Irv Smith Jr. (31% slot, 93% routes over 7% blocking in 2019). I can see Thielen pushing for first-team All Pro almost as easily as I can see him busting at his ADP. Predicting him on a week-to-week basis isn’t much easier. Means I’ll almost certainly play him, but I wish I felt better about reading his season.

    Chris Carson is someone I’m treating very cautiously. I don’t trust that his hip is 100%. He was only on the field for about 64% of SEA’s plays through the first 15 games before he went to IR. His ball security was notably poor with 7 fumbles and 4 fumbles lost (I think you can argue it cost them at least one win last year).

    What made Carson into The Guy was that Pete Carroll loves him as a player. You get Pete’s seal of approval, it doesn’t matter if you’re a 2017 7th-rounder competing with a 2018 1st-rounder in camp. It doesn’t matter if you’re a converted DE who somehow got drafted in the 4th as a TE and you only ran a 4.87 before you blew out your patellar tendon. It doesn’t matter if you’re an undersized 3rd-rounder competing against a guy who just signed a three-year contract to start at QB. Pete plays the guys who can play. Full stop.

    So it’s with that in mind, as I sit here worrying about Carson’s warts, that I’m hearing Pete say things like this about rookie RB DeeJay Dallas:

    “He has been a stud. He hasn’t missed anything and he has taken tons of snaps. He has really picked things up really well.”

    “Right from the first few days he was with us, I know Russ and the coaches were really felt confident in him”, Carroll said. “He runs routes really well and catches the ball beautifully, so that kind gave him a leg up on his start.”

    Coaches say stuff like this all the time, of course. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything. It’s got me perking my ears up because A) Pete is so real about camp competition, B) we have virtually no insight into how that competition has played out this year, C) this is basically what Pete would say if—and I stress that this is strictly hypothetical—Dallas has supplanted Carson.

    Carson didn’t have a huge margin on targets. He dominated the backfield’s share with 9.5% of the overall market last year. That still only came out to 47 targets. As with many RBs, these often came in clumps: if you’re the guy who’s on the field during a two-minute drill, where they’re not allowing the D to sub out, you’re a lock for the backfield targets.

    What’re the chances that Dallas emerges as the guy in that hurry-up offense? What’re the chances that he just kills Carson’s starting gig dead? I don’t think they’re zero. After all, what Pete has undoubtedly left unsaid is that he and John Schneider liked Dallas a runner before the draft or they never would’ve picked him, but since then they’ve realized he can run routes and catch too. If Pete’s thinking about that, I’m thinking about it too.

    Now I’m not telling you that DeeJay Dallas is a sleeper.1 I’m not even saying Carson’s upside is reduced, because it’s not—there’s still worlds where he’s The Guy and that’s that. There’s also worlds where that’s no longer the case. Absent a normal preseason, there’s very little I can do now except tread carefully with Carson and wait to see which world we’re living in.

    1. I might actually be telling you DeeJay Dallas is a sleeper.

  • CleverGroom

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    With Tarik and A rob? And I like Marv or Hockenson on the run back

    Ted Ginn is two weeks younger than me.

    That blows my mind.

    Anyway, the Lions I want in that game are:

    Matthew Stafford
    Kenny Golladay
    Marvin Jones Jr.
    T.J. Hockenson
    Lions DST

    Hockenson is the thinnest play to my eye, simply because of depth at the position (on other teams) and the fact he’s never actually done anything except against Vance Joseph’s defense. Still more interested in being early on him this year than not. I love the other plays. I wanted to own lots of Kerryon Johnson but they signed Old Hickory: a necessary reminder that whatever the Lions do at RB, you won’t enjoy it (except Zach Zenner, RIP).

    The Bears I want are:

    Mitchell Trubisky
    Allen Robinson
    Anthony Miller
    Jimmy Graham
    Tarik Cohen
    Cordarrelle Patterson

    Ginn is ostensibly a guy we should like. I just doubt that I’ll get there, since there are other fast WRs who didn’t move to a new, dysfunctional team in the shortened offseason and who aren’t yet receiving membership solicitations from AARP. Patterson is a fascinating fantasy disaster from which I cannot look away. Graham made a strong argument for best player in Bears camp. Have you ever heard anything sadder?

    I love this game.

    ETA: I bet you the Lions are going to run the football just fine. I’ve basically spent the last 3-4 weeks buttonholing strangers on the street and asking them if they realized what the loss of Eddie Goldman could mean for that CHI D. That doesn’t mean I want to be involved with that backfield in fantasy, tho…

  • Dfspacman

    Fournette could be one of the best backs this year, more goal line opportunities, less stacked box, etc

  • CleverGroom

    @JCappy said...

    I really think Jimmy G needs some love here.

    A little birb told me to check the tape on the SF vs. ARI series last year, and he was right: Joe Staley missed both. They had to play three guards in Week 9. You know who missed Week 11, besides Staley? George [REDACTED] Kittle.

    They passed in those games because they couldn’t run, and they couldn’t run because they couldn’t block. It’s not what I’m going to look for if I’m trying to figure out what Shanahan wants to do against Kingsbury. Look at what they did in the playoffs with Staley and Kittle back, and I think you’ll see what Shanahan does when he can have his druthers.

    Let’s spin forward. Coming into this year, all you’ve heard is stories about the SF OL #AssertingDominance. Tell me the Giants OL is doing well against the Giants DL and all you’ll get from me is, “Boy, bye.” Tell me the SF OL is tea-bagging the SF DL and you’ve got my attention.

    Consider also the SF skill corps, to wit:

    RB
    Raheem Mostert (overpriced for 29 career targets, but one of the few no-catch-only-run RBs who could actually, factually score 40 DKFP)
    Tevin Coleman (unplayable low-leverage, change-of-pace back—prove me wrong)
    Jerick McKinnon (made of glass; actually a good play)

    WR
    Deebo Samuel (hurt, DNP)
    Brandon Aiyuk (rookie, hurt, DNP)
    Dante Pettis (years of negative reviews from Shanahan in the press until very recent days)
    Kendrick Bourne (exquisitely slow for a guy who’s never been a cut-down candidate)
    Trent Taylor (hurt)
    Richie James (24 career targets)

    TE
    George Kittle (dominant rampaging beast; recent hamstring injury is at least slightly concerning to me)
    Jordan Reed (made of glass; actually a good play)
    Ross Dwelley (probably irrelevant unless both Kittle and Reed get injured)

    That’s…not a lot of receiving weapons. Your starters are probably Mostert early-down/GL, McKinnon passing downs; Pettis/Bourne/Taylor at WR; and both Kittle and Reed playing a lot of snaps. They’re positioned to run, run, run, run, throw to McKinnon, run, run, throw to both TEs, run, and also run the damn football. Nothing else is good.

    So do I want Jimmy Garoppolo? Maybe! He had started out as a T1 QB play for me! But gimmie some stacks with McKinnon and the TEs and I’m probably calling it a day. There’s just not much else going on here. Shanahan has no incentive whatsoever to turn this into a track meet, and this time around, he’s got the OL and Kittle healthy enough to dictate his terms.

  • CleverGroom

    @JTAx33 said...

    We think Metcalf is chalky? Smizzle just referred to him as “close to a must play” but I really haven’t given him much consideration

    He’s projecting chalky, yes.

    What gets me is that consensus seems to be DK Metcalf over Tyler Lockett. That’s an obvious inefficiency we can exploit. One can also stack both with Russell Wilson, of course. You’ll have to be aggressive if you want to stack that chalky game in large-field GPPs.

    The upside with Metcalf really is massive, I’ll say that. Everybody’s always comping him to Dez Bryant, which I totally get because he’s a romplestomping manbeast with a basic route tree, but Dez ran a 4.57. Metcalf ran a 4.33. They’re not the same.

  • JCappy

    We know that we need a QB that can lead his team to a huge scoring day. I am more confident in SF having a big scoring day than most other other teams on this slate — and he’s definitely the cheapest QB that fits that bill.

    There is a very real possibility that he posts a line like 13/19 for 140 yards and 1 score and completely tanks your lineup while Mostert, Coleman and McKinnon go crazy for 200+ and 3 scores.

    BUT … I’m trying to win a tournament. And I still see what projects to be a very good offense going up against a bottom 5 defense and the QB is dirt cheap and the stacks are even cheaper.

  • JTAx33

    @squidkill said...

    What site? What’s his price etc??

    DK. $5800 i think

  • JCappy

    As far as Metcalf and Lockett go — I don’t think I’m playing either without Wilson.

    I think both will get their targets and the TEs will be heavily involved as well. If either give us like a 9/150/1 performance, then I am more than hopeful Wilson smashed as well…

  • JTAx33

    @CleverGroom said...

    He’s projecting chalky, yes.

    What gets me is that consensus seems to be DK Metcalf over Tyler Lockett. That’s an obvious inefficiency we can exploit. One can also stack both with Russell Wilson, of course. You’ll have to be aggressive if you want to stack that chalky game in large-field GPPs.

    The upside with Metcalf really is massive, I’ll say that. Everybody’s always comping him to Dez Bryant, which I totally get because he’s a romplestomping manbeast with a basic route tree, but Dez ran a 4.57. Metcalf ran a 4.33. They’re not the same.

    I get the reasons to be optimistic, but saying that he’s a near lock for cash seems extreme to me

  • JCappy

    Right above and right beneath Metcalf are two of my favorite WR plays so I will definitely be underweight. I didnt know he was going to carry that high of ownership.

  • odanny

    If you live in:

    Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Washington, D.C.

    Then you need to download the separate app for Draft Kings (it will be paired with a Casino, for Illinois it is the Casino Queen in E. St. Louis) and take advantage of the $50 bet for K.C. +101 on Thursday night, after placing the bet you’ll get a notice you’ve won a free bet, which takes you back to the K.C. +101 bet, and you now can bet another $50. FanDuel just credits your sportsbook with $100, which you can spend as you please. FD in Illinois is paired with Par A Dice Casino. All of these sportsbooks have to be paired with a casino in the above states.

  • miggs6876

    @deeebo said...

    How’s everyone doing?

    Good to see you. Good luck.

  • Smallchimp

    I commented it a while back, but a big part of Metcalf’s chalkiness (esp in cash) is that if you’re starting with CMC/Gibson/Sanders (which probably 15%+ of people are in cash), Metcalf fits in really really well along in the build. Plop those 3 in a lineup and see where lineup building brings you. You land on him or McLaurin very commonly in that build and it’s not a bad thing considering it’s very easy exposure to a big game

  • killipso

    Quick comment about the Blitz package. Last year I bought it for 150 this year it is 300. With Covid and all and everyone hurting seems a bit extreme. Nothing personal against Carty as he seems like a good guy. There would probably be more people buying it if they could break it down monthly over a season.

  • CleverGroom

    @JTAx33 said...

    I get the reasons to be optimistic, but saying that he’s a near lock for cash seems extreme to me

    Oooo…see, I’m grappling with whether it’s ever rational to go overweight on a chalky WR/TE in large-field GPPs, given bust rates. Cash is a whole different story if you’re playing 1 LU.

    I’d be awfully afraid to fade Metcalf if he’s chalk in cash. That’s a man who can kill you stone dead if he goes off. Don’t think for an instant that he showed his ceiling as a rookie.

  • JTAx33

    @Smallchimp said...

    I commented it a while back, but a big part of Metcalf’s chalkiness (esp in cash) is that if you’re starting with CMC/Gibson/Sanders (which probably 15%+ of people are in cash), Metcalf fits in really really well along in the build. Plop those 3 in a lineup and see where lineup building brings you. You land on him or McLaurin very commonly in that build and it’s not a bad thing considering it’s very easy exposure to a big game

    I mean I built off of those 3 and McLaurin and once again never even considered him

  • JTAx33

    @CleverGroom said...

    Oooo…see, I’m grappling with whether it’s ever rational to go overweight on a chalky WR/TE in large-field GPPs, given bust rates. Cash is a whole different story if you’re playing 1 LU.

    I’d be awfully afraid to fade Metcalf if he’s chalk in cash. That’s a man who can kill you stone dead if he goes off. Don’t think for an instant that he showed his ceiling as a rookie.

    My current core is Adams/McLaurin/DJax. Metcalf becoming chalk would have me reconsidering

  • Smallchimp

    That’s interesting you went with Adams. I think it’s a good play, it just wasn’t a build I thought of. Seems like TE and QB get a little ugly in that one, but not unbearable

  • winnerchickendinner

    I believe Joe Burrow will be good but this matchup against the chargers just ain’t it. Yes their secondary is slow and they lost derwin James but the have bosa and ingram for a pass rush. And looking at the secondary it seems to be a bend dont break type based on stats and film. It seems like they are just well coached and are smart to be in the right spots and use good technique to not get beat for 10 yards a play. Joe mixon is the play here.

  • sanders_tj

    Does any site track defensive DVOA rankings for not just RB’s, but for RB pass stats as well? I thought football outsiders did, but I can’t find it when I do a google search.

  • timusbr

    Golf just finished for last week, so I am behind already without starting yet. Still getting my act together about who is playing where.

    I am going full on NFL to get my picks ready for Thursday. Sorry I havnt read this thread and am jumping right to a question.

    I am old school, I know the benefits of spring training and pre-season. Last year I saw many coaches that didnt play the stars (starters?) during pre-season. I think coaches and teams do a disservice to the fans….for 1 HUGE reason. Penalties….specificly offsides and illegal procedure. My Bears were a victim of a bad coaching decision to not play starters in pre-season and I must say the first four weeks they looked like monkeys F’n a football out there. 1 good play does not make up for 20-30 yards of penalties in 1 series.

    Anyone talk about this?….study the coaches?

  • monarch

    I’m all over DK Metcalf as well. I’m going to play as many passing game assets that I believe can score twice. Julio, Andrews, Adams, Smoke those type guys. And then I like the mid range backs.

  • monarch

    Also Hunter Renfrow the middle age second year slot guy for the Raiders. Ruggs and Edwards only give him more room. He has some big play upside and Carr likes to look his way.

  • Dfspacman

    Anyone considering Dolphins defense on draftkings ?

  • beare

    anyone like colts d week one?

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