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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Playtaw1n

    There’s a similar case I think you can build for Jordan Howard in that I just don’t see a world where this Patriots front 7 can be anything but terrible.

    I love cam and bought in last off season but even if he’s healthy dudes not really in a great spot to succeed with that group of skill position players.

    Dolphins have two good corners with Howard/Jones which should allow them to be more aggressive up front.

    In a favorable game script, Howard is certainly capable of blowing up the box score

  • squidkill

    TyGod in Cash week 1. God I’m randy

  • CleverGroom

    @Playtaw1n said...

    The browns upgraded their tackle position as much in one season as you possibly could.

    I don’t disagree with your arguments, broadly speaking. The main thing for me is the enormous advantage in coaching/preparation for BAL, under the circumstances. Even if the run D is poor—and I’m not sure it projects to be meaningfully poor, so much as average—you need a Browns lead for Chubb to even be on the field routinely. Obviously there’s a non-zero chance it happens, but projecting the Browns to lead that game goes against all of my instincts.

    The bit I’ve quoted is where I’d disagree on the substance. Personnel and talent are great, but OL play is about continuity—perhaps more so than any other position/group. OLs are in for a very difficult September across the league. OLs with significant personnel and coaching changes are going to get whipsawed worse than anybody else.

    The 2020 Browns should round into much better form than the 2019 Browns…eventually. Week 1, I’d bet against it. I’d expect them to be worse before they get better.

  • CleverGroom

    @Playtaw1n said...

    There’s a similar case I think you can build for Jordan Howard in that I just don’t see a world where this Patriots front 7 can be anything but terrible.

    Now we’re talking! The more I look at that game, the more Dolphins I want to roster.

    My favorite stat there isn’t about the NE defense at all (defensive matchups are grossly overrated as a rule, particularly in GPP), but the fact NE had the fastest situation-neutral pace of play in the NFL last year. Cam’s good in no-huddle. Great news for the Dolphins players if McDaniels keeps him going at the same breakneck pace they ran last year.

  • Smallchimp

    It legitimately puts a smile on my face to see this thread starting to pick up and the chatter really makes it feel like football season even without the preseason

  • AdamBski

    So who’s gonna be this season’s week 1 Hollywood Brown???

  • AVivier

    @AdamBski said...

    So who’s gonna be this season’s week 1 Hollywood Brown???

    Reagor, Campbell and Antonio Gibson are the guys getting the hype.

  • 808state

    @AdamBski said...

    So who’s gonna be this season’s week 1 Hollywood Brown???

    Probably Ruggs or Edwards

  • squidkill

    @AVivier said...

    Reagor, Campbell and Antonio Gibson are the guys getting the hype.

    Can’t get on the Gibson train. Looks like a fullback out there. Not the slickest of feet.

  • squidkill

    DK not starting soft with him this year.
    CMC 10k week 1 You pay that in cash?

  • squidkill

    @squidkill said...

    DK not starting soft with him this year.
    CMC 10k week 1 You pay that in cash?

    Yes, yes you do

  • AVivier

    @squidkill said...

    Can’t get on the Gibson train. Looks like a fullback out there. Not the slickest of feet.

    Can’t get on the Campbell hype myself. Too many mouths to feed unless people are expecting Rivers to chuck it for 500.

  • AdamBski

    @AVivier said...

    Reagor, Campbell and Antonio Gibson are the guys getting the hype.

    No mention of Brandon Aiyuk? Deebo looks like he’ll miss some time…

  • AVivier

    @AdamBski said...

    No mention of Brandon Aiyuk? Deebo looks like he’ll miss some time…

    It wasn’t a comprehensive list lol. Aiyuk is also injured fwiw. Not great for a rookie to be missing time right now even if he’s ready by week 1.

  • infantryboys

    You can have him. Way too steep a price to pay for him, considering he has a new coaching staff. We have no idea if he’ll get the volume he did under the old regime.

  • squidkill

    @infantryboys said...

    You can have him. Way too steep a price to pay for him, considering he has a new coaching staff. We have no idea if he’ll get the volume he did under the old regime.

    Ride him like an Ethiopian camel in the desert 🐫

  • Smallchimp

    Does a coach come into Carolina knowing that it works to just hand CMC the ball 30 times and just decides not to continue? Obviously they didn’t make the playoffs, but better QB play and the defense being shored up even just a bit should enable CMC to keep the volume while the rest of the offense is more efficient and the defense doesn’t get dug into holes

  • CleverGroom

    28 NFL players, including Christian McCaffrey, have recorded a 400+ touch season. Le’Veon Bell is the only other active player to have done so.

    Nine players subsequently recorded at least one additional 400+ touch season. Of those nine, only Walter Payton did not record 400+ touches in the season immediately following his first 400+ touch season.

    All of these players and seasons were outliers, so it should go without saying that we can’t necessarily draw useful inferences. If we can, then it doesn’t seem altogether unlikely that CMC’s usage could continue for another year. Past that point, it gets dicier: the list narrows to five players who posted a third 400+ touch season. Only Emmitt Smith and Eric Dickerson ever posted four such seasons. Nobody’s done it five times.

    A difference-maker for me last year was accepting that CMC’s never had durability concerns as far back as we have any records on the guy. He was just 23 years old in 2019—younger than Terrell Davis, Curtis Martin, Sweetness, James Wilder, or Ricky Martin were before their first 400+ touch seasons, let alone their repeats. I wouldn’t shy away from the guy just because of the DeMarco Murray narrative about overuse and sudden decline (Murray was 26 when the Cowboys ran him into the ground).

    Repetition of this kind of usage is never likely. It’s possible for outliers, however, and every data point we have on CMC to date pegs him as having that potential.

    As for the coaching staff, we’re talking about HC Matt Rhule and OC Joe Brady. Schematically, I think their philosophy of RPOs, 10 and 11 personnel to open up the box, and getting the ball to playmakers in space suits CMC and the rest of their personnel very well.

    You won’t find much hope looking over Rhule or Brady’s RB usage in the college game, but hell, go look at CMC’s Stanford box scores. Nobody in CFB gets anything approaching his 2019 NFL usage. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming off 55 receptions in Joe Brady’s 2019 passing game, while CMC maxed out at 45 catches in his sophomore season. Only one player—Max Borghi of Washington State—recorded more catches than young master Clyde in 2019 while also rushing at least 100 times. The data we have are about as promising as they could be.

    Rhule and Brady aren’t idiots. We know they saw what CMC did last year. We don’t have a track record of them making irrational, suboptimal decisions like, oh, I don’t know, Brian Schottenheimer (who’s a year older than Rhule and 16 years older than Brady, incidentally). They literally spent every single 2020 draft pick on their defense, so we can surmise they view it as a unit with…potential…at best, and realize they’re going to need to score points to win ball games. We know they want to win games so they can keep their jobs and get better jobs.

    Put it all together and I think CMC’s price is fair. RB is the one position where projections always matter more than ownership or salary, even in large-field GPPs. CMC has the best projection of any player in the NFL. That’s almost always true, but certainly a playdate with the Raiders isn’t about to revise it downward. Even DK’s salaries are soft enough that it’s no trouble to jam him in. I’m all for it.

  • JSteele

    David Montgomery had a bad injury at practice today.

    Tarik Cohen chalk

  • infantryboys

    @JSteele said...

    David Montgomery had a bad injury at practice today.

    Tarik Cohen chalk

    Turns out it might be a groin injury instead of a knee. At any rate, if it’s serious, I bet they bring someone in, rather than pound Cohen.

  • Dfspacman

    Chargers need to sign another receiver, Mike Williams injury prone , u just got Allen and the TE

  • AVivier

    @Dfspacman said...

    Chargers need to sign another receiver, Mike Williams injury prone , u just got Allen and the TE

    Was just mentioning to someone yesterday that it looks like Jalen Guyton will be their week 1 WR2. Talk about lack of depth!

  • AVivier

    There’s going to be massive overlay in several DK contests, only can imagine what FD is looking like.

  • Smallchimp

    All good stuff CG. I’m all for finding tendencies, but like you said, outlier situations are a little more prone to context in determining what to expect. It’s hard to expect CMC to “regress” to a disappointing level of volume, and even if the volume drops, efficiency should be higher if the scheming is improved

  • Smallchimp

    Also, if Montgomery misses Week 1, do we expect:

    1. Carries to be split between Cohen, Patterson, and Nall

    2. Higher passing volume to WRs

    3. Carries to be traded for dump off’s to RBs and shorter range targets

    If Cohen’s carries turn into targets, his price isn’t bad at all but it does seem like there’s a lot of juicy RBs to take instead

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