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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • marker0357

    @CleverGroom said...

    Let’s expand on this a bit.

    The closest we have to Rivers with two good TEs in recent history is 2016-17. Rivers threw 578 and 575 attempts those seasons, which is more than I’d expect this year.

    In 2016, Keenan Allen went down in Week 1, so Rivers’ WR1 was Tyrell Williams and his WR2 was Dontrelle Inman. People would have me believe that Campbell and Pittman are both superior options to those guys, to say nothing of T.Y., so I’d expect the WRs to command larger target shares relative to the IND TEs.

    In 2017, Keenan was back. He led targets comfortably, followed by:

    Melvin Gordon – 83 targets
    Tyrell Williams – 69 targets
    Travis Benjamin – 62 targets
    Hunter Henry – 62 targets
    Antonio Gates – 52 targets

    Again, I’m given to understand that Campbell/Pittman > Williams/Benjamin, so I’d expect larger shares for the WRs. Again, I expect lower total passing volume, so everybody’s numbers should go down.

    What came out of those two seasons at TE was:

    Hunter Henry – 81-1057-12 on 115 targets
    Antonio Gates – 83-864-10 on 145 targets

    Which is…fine for two TEs over two seasons. But in my calculus, you have to 1) split one of those lines over the entire TE room for a season, 2) adjust down the passing volume, 3) shade more volume toward the superior WRs. And not for nothing, but I don’t think Trey Burton is Hunter Henry, or even that Jack Doyle is a late-career Antonio Gates.

    It’s certainly possible you can find good games for the TEs this year. I just doubt that you can get there by logic like “Play Rivers’ TE.” The good results are liable to be few and far between, and I see a ton of TEs I’d prefer to start Week 1.

    eh, not so fast, my friend (as Lee Corso would say). I’m really not thinking in terms of 2 TE’s though the Colts may very well play that way at times. I’m really only thinking of a single TE, either Doyle or Burton, whoever is healthy. Indy’s run game is meh and less than meh without the OL. TY is the only formidable threat really with others just patchwork. Not only has Rivers shown a penchant for using his TE’s though not as much by your stats as I thought admittedly, but he really will need to lean a bit on TE or say Hines out of the backfield, I suppose. If he throws 100+ targets by way of the TE, I think that works well enough.

    I don’t see this as a juggernaut offense, maybe just good enough to be playoff bound and cause some noise in the division. I think HOU downgraded, JAX remained about the same overall, and TEN will come back to the pack. IND may be a little better overall and that may be all that it takes this year.

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    Yah this season is a mess – I had plans to go to Vegas to the Bucs game in October then later in the season to Tampa to see them play Minny in Dec.

    I went to Vegas in January and when thinking about it last night I actually thought it was 1.5 years ago and not this year.

    2020 is a long one 🤣

  • JTAx33

    @BIF said...

    Yah this season is a mess – I had plans to go to Vegas to the Bucs game in October then later in the season to Tampa to see them play Minny in Dec. None of it will happen now.

    The Minny game in December is still in play, just gonna be expensive. I expect to hear from them regarding single ticket purchase soon. They emailed season ticket holders at the beginning of the month regarding individual games; I’d imagine resale is gonna be through the roof

  • BIF

    @JTAx33 said...

    The Minny game in December is still in play, just gonna be expensive. I expect to hear from them regarding single ticket purchase soon. They emailed season ticket holders at the beginning of the month regarding individual games; I’d imagine resale is gonna be through the roof

    Might still be in play for you but I live in Canada and our US/Canada border is still closed and we have travel restrictions in place that’ll likely extend through the year plus I doubt I’d put Florida very high on my list of destinations given there are still 2500+ new cases every day in Florida.

  • infantryboys

    @squidkill said...

    Oh. I think people aren’t ready at all. As you know I don’t play hardly any season long, but it’s sept 1 and none of my buddies are ready. Maybe the sites dial back week 1due to being scared of the overlay. 🤷‍♂️ Either way I’m ready

    Without the traditional preseason, the season is probably sneaking up on people. Also, with the economy the way it is, some folks may not play or may dial it back this year.

    FD released the rest of their week 1 slate and it looks like the contests are much smaller than previous years.

  • JTAx33

    @BIF said...

    Might still be in play for you but I live in Canada and our US/Canada border is still closed and we have travel restrictions in place that’ll likely extend through the year plus I doubt I’d put Florida very high on my list of destinations given there are still 2500+ new cases every day in Florida.

    Oh forgot that you live in Canada; that changes things

  • squidkill

    @JTAx33 said...

    Word is Kamara could be holding out. If that’s the case I hope the poor match-up scares people off of the Lat smash play at $4600

    Not vs TB. Pass

  • squidkill

    @BIF said...

    The only blessing is that there are not many good pieces left in NE

    Watch it fella

  • BIF

    @squidkill said...

    Watch it fella

  • techbucsfan

    Anyone else really like the OAK/CAR game? I think CAR’s D is gonna be very bad this year, they lost a ton of pieces including their best player and leader in Kuechly. Not expecting OAK’s D to be much better which makes me think this can be a potential shootout that you can get a big piece of without taking up much salary. One of my favorite builds so far has been Carr/Edwards/Waller and running it back with CMC or Moore.

  • CleverGroom

    @BIF said...

    I get it and I do not hate the game from a fantasy perspective as likely both sides score some points; just not huge on AP as RB is usually a position I’ll pay up or at least pay the average price for unless some real value opens up with an injury.

    I would be more surprised if Adrian Peterson scores 20+ DKFP Week 1 than if he’s a game-day inactive.

  • CleverGroom

    @emnj69 said...

    he will be matched up against humphrey no thanks-landry will be the guy week one

    If Odell Beckham Jr. plays at the height of his powers, I don’t care what the matchup is. Don’t care in the slightest.

    There’s plenty of reasons OBJ could fail. But suppose he doesn’t. His 90th- and 99th-percentile outcomes are comfortably north of 30 DKFP—the guy notched three career games of 40+ playing with the Ghost of Eli Manning—so he should be a part of any mid-to-large player pool for GPP.

    I’ll be curious to see where his ownership is projected. Doubt many are eager to play him, even at the discount, so I’ll probably try and be overweight.

  • CleverGroom

    @BIF said...

    Against the #1 Run Defense and arguably the best Front Seven in the league ?

    Check CMC’s game logs vs Bucs and almost every other RB last year

    No smash for Lat – I could see a 3x-4X game so a nice cash plug but I can’t load up in that matchup

    I’m with ole BIF on this one. Even if the holdout comes to pass, it’s not as if Murray will be our only sub-$5k RB1 on the slate. We can target better spots than this.

    Also, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t somewhat anxious about the role they’ll have for Ty Montgomery. He’s been buzzy in camp (not for the first time). He’s a much more natural fill-in for the Alvin Kamara role in the passing game. I take it as a blessing that if there is a holdout, we’ll get to wait and see how usage shakes out in a game where even Kamara’s ceiling would’ve been reduced.

  • CleverGroom

    @techbucsfan said...

    Anyone else really like the OAK/CAR game? I think CAR’s D is gonna be very bad this year, they lost a ton of pieces including their best player and leader in Kuechly. Not expecting OAK’s D to be much better which makes me think this can be a potential shootout that you can get a big piece of without taking up much salary. One of my favorite builds so far has been Carr/Edwards/Waller and running it back with CMC or Moore.

    I think it’s interesting.

    Darren Waller is a guy I’m very low on this season, unfortunately. The Raiders have just a tiny 68 available targets from last year, and they’ve added:

    Jason Witten
    Henry Ruggs III
    Bryan Edwards
    Lynn Bowden Jr.
    Every free agent RB with receiving skills short of Devonta Freeman

    Those top four guys could legit absorb, what? 200-300 targets if they were available? Witten had 83 last year. All they’ve ever said was that they mean to play Bowden at RB (even after paying Jalen Richard handsomely), but he was listed as a WR in college and caught 97 balls over his last two seasons. Ruggs and Edwards are looking like potential starters, at least because of the Tyrell Williams injury. The Gazelle only had 64 targets last year, so honestly his injury doesn’t even stand to add too many to the pool.

    There’s also this deranged narrative about how Josh Jacobs will be featured in the receiving game this year, despite all evidence to the contrary. He’s said he thinks 60 catches is possible. I dunno if he’s counting balls from the JUGS machine or what.

    It’s a lot like the Colts, where I see a low-octane, low-volume, highly diffuse passing game. Makes it very hard for me to get super excited about anybody in particular.

    Waller more than anybody else has a target on his back, coming off a career year where he still got vultured a lot more than you’d like by Foster Moreau, led targets on the team by 46, and is now staring down an interloper who could very well become the Frank Gore of the TE position. There’s just no way that this many additions couldn’t eat into his role. The other guys would have to get injured or Carr would have to start throwing another 10+ passes per game.

    All of that said, I do like LV at CAR somewhat. Bad defenses, as you say. It’s a shame the QBs are substantially less exciting to roster than Mitch Trubisky (not a joke). CAR will probably play quite fast, but LV has played slow under Gruden (7th-slowest and 9th-slowest in the league), which is bad.

    I’ll probably try to work some guys in while shading toward the CAR side of the ball. Their ceilings are easier for me to figure and like. The game should play a lot faster and score a lot higher if CAR wins time of possession by a good margin. Then again, LV guys should be in a relatively up-pace game, while CAR guys should be in a relatively down-pace game.

    I like it. Don’t love it.

    ETA: Getting used to the Las Vegas Raiders is gonna be…a journey.

  • Playtaw1n

    No one interested in Kenyan Drake? Kingsbury talking about using Isabella in the slot this year. So that either means Fitz comes off the field more or we see more 10 personnel from them and I think it’s the latter. We seen last year the cardinals have massive success rushing by spreading out the defensive horizontally and I have no reason to expect that to go away.

    Also drake is about as game script neutral as it gets. If he’s healthy he’s going to be the bell cow here.

    Chance Bosa misses week 1 which obv would upgrade

  • emnj69

    @CleverGroom said...

    If Odell Beckham Jr. plays at the height of his powers, I don’t care what the matchup is. Don’t care in the slightest.

    There’s plenty of reasons OBJ could fail. But suppose he doesn’t. His 90th- and 99th-percentile outcomes are comfortably north of 30 DKFP—the guy notched three career games of 40+ playing with the Ghost of Eli Manning—so he should be a part of any mid-to-large player pool for GPP.

    I’ll be curious to see where his ownership is projected. Doubt many are eager to play him, even at the discount, so I’ll probably try and be overweight.

    well the beauty of it is you can run the same line up twice once with obj and once with landry-one of them will have a big game-I think it will be landry like last year but they are the same price on dk

  • realphipps

    Landry was in the slot 52.1% of snaps played last season.

    He’ll still do a lot of damage from there this season, especially on 3rd down, but I’d expect that percentage to drop by +/- 10%.

    This is a radically different scheme from those Landry has played in as a pro.

  • WhiteyJones8

    @realphipps said...

    Landry was in the slot 52.1% of snaps played last season.

    He’ll still do a lot of damage from there this season, especially on 3rd down, but I’d expect that percentage to drop by +/- 10%.

    This is a radically different scheme from those Landry has played in as a pro.

    Just curious but how can you have any idea what their scheme will be when there hasn’t been a single preseason game and most teams don’t allow beat writers to tweet out personnel packages.

    This year more than any other there is going to be an edge for sharp players who can find nuanced data from practice but damn is that hard and time consuming.

  • CleverGroom

    @Playtaw1n said...

    No one interested in Kenyan Drake? Kingsbury talking about using Isabella in the slot this year. So that either means Fitz comes off the field more or we see more 10 personnel from them and I think it’s the latter.

    Better not tell the Dan Arnold truthers about that theory.

    Kenyan Drake is always in play, health permitting. His talent and role are phenomenal for fantasy production. Game script doesn’t matter all that much to him, as you say. The offense as a whole has had great continuity, apart from adding a stud WR in DeAndre Hopkins, so they’re relatively attractive in these early-season games.

    $6,400 on DK is probably a good $1k too cheap for Drake any given week. They seem to have priced him down for what’s ostensibly a difficult matchup, though I don’t think that’s quite warranted. Other potential issues for the SF D include DeForest Buckner’s departure for IND, Fred Warner’s move to the reserve/COVID list yesterday, and several injuries besides Nick Bosa. Have to wait and see how those shake out.

    In general, I’d try to be aggressive in targeting the SF D this year. Compare their 2018 and 2019 stats to see just how unstable defensive performance can be year-to-year, despite minimal turnover of personnel. Bosa and Kwon Alexander are great, Dre Greenlaw made some plays, but there’s no way they created literally 20 turnovers. I’m sincerely happy that Richard Sherman had such a great season last year, but it’s not likely that a 32-year-old who’s dealt with an Achilles rupture and bone spurs is the best corner in the NFL. They should regress dramatically. If they don’t, somebody like the Jets or Jaguars needs to immediately hire Robert Saleh as their next head coach.

  • BIF

    @CleverGroom said...

    In general, I’d try to be aggressive in targeting the SF D this year. Compare their 2018 and 2019 stats to see just how unstable defensive performance can be year-to-year, despite minimal turnover of personnel. Bosa and Kwon Alexander are great, Dre Greenlaw made some plays, but there’s no way they created literally 20 turnovers. I’m sincerely happy that Richard Sherman had such a great season last year, but it’s not likely that a 32-year-old who’s dealt with an Achilles rupture and bone spurs is the best corner in the NFL. They should regress dramatically. If they don’t, somebody like the Jets or Jaguars needs to immediately hire Robert Saleh as their next head coach.

    What about the other side ? Everyone wants to get cute and play pieces from the 7.5pt underdog here (which I get) but I was looking at the SF offense which may go a little underowned.

    Kittle against Zona will be chalky but if Deebo misses, Bourne has a chance to smash and Jimmy G has some upside against that D. Still looking over camp reports and other sources on this one but this one peaks my interest.

  • emnj69

    @realphipps said...

    Landry was in the slot 52.1% of snaps played last season.

    He’ll still do a lot of damage from there this season, especially on 3rd down, but I’d expect that percentage to drop by +/- 10%.

    This is a radically different scheme from those Landry has played in as a pro.

    I will have LOTS more landry over OBJ in this match up.
    Landry was the better wr vs them last year. Obj and Humphrey have history and I suspect they will have a battle going on this game not matter who different the ravens d scheme is they will at some point going against each other. One could argue OBJ will want be up for the challenge but I am not one of those guys. OBJ is a guy that loses his cool too easy-he did it with norman and it happened last year already with Humphrey. Landry last year was better than OBJ in every single category besides one-OBJ has the longest reception of the year.
    *Some of these are very close but.
    Landry had more fantasy points per game
    Landry had more fantasy points for the season
    Landry had more catches
    Landry have more targets
    Landry had more yards
    Landry had more td catches
    Landry had more catches over 20+ yards.

    I think the browns will also try to control the amount of baker ints this year and that will mean less deep balls but more runs and controlled passes and wr screens-something that suits Landry better

    I dont think either will be highly owned in what most perceive is a bad match up.

  • realphipps

    @WhiteyJones8 said...

    Just curious but how can you have any idea what their scheme will be when there hasn’t been a single preseason game and most teams don’t allow beat writers to tweet out personnel packages.

    This year more than any other there is going to be an edge for sharp players who can find nuanced data from practice but damn is that hard and time consuming.

    The Browns just held an open practice/scrimmage last week. Mostly zone blocking scheme in the run game. Mostly 12 personnel. Much like the many practice reports we have on them.

    Before the ink dried on Kevin Stefanski’s deal to be head coach, he had already hired Bill Callahan to coach the offensive line. Two strong signs of A.) Heavy run game and B.) Zone, zone and more zone.

    Then there’s personnel. They drafted Jedrick Willis because of his athletic prowess, which fits well with zone blocking. And they made Jack Conklin, arguably the best zone blocking right tackle in the league, their #1 priority in free agency.

    I’m just connecting the dots. They could be radically different than what I’m expecting, but that would certainly be contradict what they’ve seemingly been building.

    My best guess, with limited prep and no preseason, these guys stick to what they know best.

  • AVivier

    Mostert and their OL is who has been dominating camp consistently from what I’ve have read. They lost Joe Staley and picked up Trent Williams on the OL.

  • CleverGroom

    @realphipps said...

    The Browns just held an open practice/scrimmage last week. Mostly zone blocking scheme in the run game. Mostly 12 personnel. Much like the many practice reports we have on them.

    All excellent points. I quite agree with all of it.

    Regarding personnel, I would add that the Browns signed Austin Hooper without letting go of David Njoku, despite some drama. They also added one of the only fullbacks who matters in Andy Janovich.

    It’s all consistent with what we’ve seen from Stefanski’s brief past with the Vikings, so I’m loathe to overthink this one. This is a team that was built to play 12 or 21 personnel and to thrive on play-action. I agree that there’s going to be fewer slot reps for Jarvis Landry. There could be less passing volume in general: Kirk Cousins attempted nearly 100 fewer passes than Baker Mayfield last year.

    I don’t think it’s crazy to say the Browns could be better-equipped to run the Kubiak offense than the Vikings were. Their biggest issue would be a downgrade at the QB position. Cousins has been excellent on play-action throughout his career, whereas it might be the worst part of Mayfield’s game to date.

    Early in the season, I expect a lot of growing pains. No matter what Stefanski’s scheme rounds into, it’s a major departure from…whatever Freddie Kitchens was doing. The OL should be substantially better but has to break in a rookie and gel together under Callahan. I would hesitate to rely on volume from Browns players in Week 1. They’ll have trouble stacking wins, repeating any successes they can muster. A guy like OBJ can still have upside since he could break multiple 40+ plays in a game. Guys like Juice or Austin Hooper are not appealing to me.

  • CleverGroom

    @emnj69 said...

    Landry had more fantasy points per game
    Landry had more fantasy points for the season
    Landry had more catches
    Landry have more targets
    Landry had more yards
    Landry had more td catches
    Landry had more catches over 20+ yards.

    None of this holds predictive value.

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