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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • emnj69

    so you are going to discount the past year performance of landry vs obj saying none has predictive value while at the same time you are trying to predict what the browns offense will look like based on what offense their coach ran with a different team?

  • CleverGroom

    @BIF said...

    What about the other side ? Everyone wants to get cute and play pieces from the 7.5pt underdog here (which I get) but I was looking at the SF offense which may go a little underowned.

    Kittle against Zona will be chalky but if Deebo misses, Bourne has a chance to smash and Jimmy G has some upside against that D. Still looking over camp reports and other sources on this one but this one peaks my interest.

    Totes! I’ll probably have Jimmy Garoppolo stacks in addition to some singlet plays.

    George Kittle is the best TE play, irrespective of salaries, and Jordan Reed could be the best value option. Let this be your first official admonition of the season: we always play the TE against Vance Joseph’s defense. Always.

    I’m not sure I love the ceiling on Kendrick Bourne, Dante Pettis, or Trent Taylor even if that’s all they’ve got at WR. Brandon Aiyuk could still conceivably play, but must’ve been set back by all the time he’s missed. It’s not like Garoppolo is a lock to throw 20 times, and it’s not like any of these guys are epic field-stretchers.

    The RBs are as big a mess as ever. Shanahan either loves Jerick McKinnon ($4,000) as much as any father ever loved a first-born son or is blinded by sunk costs and bias. He’s an interesting play either way. Raheem Mostert ($5,800) is a fiend. Tevin Coleman ($4,200) could lead the backfield in touches somehow. They’re all viable, but the disparity in salaries is wild.

  • CleverGroom

    @emnj69 said...

    so you are going to discount the past year performance of landry vs obj saying none has predictive value while at the same time you are trying to predict what the browns offense will look like based on what offense their coach ran with a different team?

    That’s about the shape of it, yeah.

  • thedkexperience

    @CleverGroom said...

    None of this holds predictive value.

    Speaking of predictive value, each of the last 2 seasons I’ve done a project that I’m going to share with you all. You know how the average NFL fan says “I looked at the schedule and my favorite team is going to go 12-4” or some other record? Well I always found it odd that in a game where travel and how badly a team needs a win effects so much of it that people would try to predict their team’s record in a vacuum.

    So for the third year in a row I’ve looked at every team’s schedule at once and put the results on a spreadsheet. This is actually an exercise to predict over under season win total bets but I’ve predicted the playoff teams at a 75% clip the last 2 seasons. Chances are a QB will get hurt to ruin one of these predictions and a team will pop up but overall I’ve had very accurate and profitable results.

    Here is every playoff team I expect this year after the exercise. While I got lucky in that there were no tie breakers necessary for the 12 playoff spots and the one AFC tie breaker was simple to figure out, I would need a doctorate in NFL tie breakers to figure out the NFC 2, 3, 5 and 6 seeds.

    AFC

    1 Ravens 13 wins
    2 Chiefs 13 wins
    3 Texans 11 wins
    4 Patriots 10 wins
    5 Steelers 11 wins
    6 Titans 10 wins

    NFC

    1 Packers 12 wins
    2 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins
    3 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins
    4 Eagles 10 wins
    5 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins
    6 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins

    Notes

    - I couldn’t believe how hard the Texans early schedule was or that they got to 11 wins somehow.

    - Considering I was called an Eagles fan boy yesterday, expected them to get no more than 9 and ended up with 10 … maybe I am?

    - The Pats are not close to dead.

    - The Packers might lock things up around Thanksgiving.

    - I expect Seattle and SF to be the last 2 undefeated teams.

    Edit – oh my god, it’s 7 teams from each conference now isn’t it. God damn you 2020!!!

    Edit 2 – I have the Bills and Colts both at 8 wins tied for the AFC 7th seed and the Cardinals getting the NFC 7th seed at 9 wins.

  • WhiteyJones8

    @thedkexperience said...

    Speaking of predictive value, each of the last 2 seasons I’ve done a project that I’m going to share with you all. You know how the average NFL fan says “I looked at the schedule and my favorite team is going to go 12-4” or some other record? Well I always found it odd that in a game where travel and how badly a team needs a win effects so much of it that people would try to predict their team’s record in a vacuum.

    So for the third year in a row I’ve looked at every team’s schedule at once and put the results on a spreadsheet. This is actually an exercise to predict over under season win total bets but I’ve predicted the playoff teams at a 75% clip the last 2 seasons. Chances are a QB will get hurt to ruin one of these predictions and a team will pop up but overall I’ve had very accurate and profitable results.

    Here is every playoff team I expect this year after the exercise. While I got lucky in that there were no tie breakers necessary for the 12 playoff spots and the one AFC tie breaker was simple to figure out, I would need a doctorate in NFL tie breakers to figure out the NFC 2, 3, 5 and 6 seeds.

    AFC

    1 Ravens 13 wins
    2 Chiefs 13 wins
    3 Texans 11 wins
    4 Patriots 10 wins
    5 Steelers 11 wins
    6 Titans 10 wins

    NFC

    1 Packers 12 wins
    2 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins
    3 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins
    4 Eagles 10 wins
    5 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins
    6 Bucs/Saints/49ers/Seahawks 11 wins

    Notes

    - I couldn’t believe how hard the Texans early schedule was or that they got to 11 wins somehow.

    - Considering I was called an Eagles fan boy yesterday, expected them to get no more than 9 and ended up with 10 … maybe I am?

    - The Pats are not close to dead.

    - The Packers might lock things up around Thanksgiving.

    - I expect Seattle and SF to be the last 2 undefeated teams.

    I am actually an Eagles fan boy (sorta) but I’m not sure the Eagles are better than the Cowboys this year. Where do you have the Cowboys in all this?

  • thedkexperience

    @WhiteyJones8 said...

    I am actually an Eagles fan boy (sorta) but I’m not sure the Eagles are better than the Cowboys this year. Where do you have the Cowboys in all this?

    8 wins. Their schedule had an awful ebb and flow to it. I think they need to sweep the Eagles to get to 9 for a tie.

    Please note I expected to have them at 10 wins and the Eagles at 9. I agree the Cowboys have more talent.

  • marker0357

    Anyone else see the DK Sportsbook offer of KC +101 for Thur night (max bet $50)?

  • thedkexperience

    @marker0357 said...

    Anyone else see the DK Sportsbook offer of KC +101 for Thur night (max bet $50)?

    That game scares the pants off me. While I’m likely to bet KC on the ML (or take the +101 anyway) I think people are throwing dirt on the Texans graves prematurely.

    Hopkins is an unquestionable great player but for the most part great WRs don’t change a ton in the win column. Houston is still the team that was up 20+ in KC in January. Watson could quite easily jump into the Lamar/Mahomes best young QB discussion this season.

  • marker0357

    @thedkexperience said...

    That game scares the pants off me. While I’m likely to bet KC on the ML (or take the +101 anyway) I think people are throwing dirt on the Texans graves prematurely.

    Hopkins is an unquestionable great player but for the most part great WRs don’t change a ton in the win column. Houston is still the team that was up 20+ in KC in January. Watson could quite easily jump into the Lamar/Mahomes best young QB discussion this season.

    agree but HOU isn’t going to beat KC by 102 pts. LOL

  • thedkexperience

    @marker0357 said...

    agree but HOU isn’t going to beat KC by 102 pts. LOL

    Wait … are you saying they are getting 101 points or KC is being priced on the money line at +101, essentially an even money bet on a home game?

    I assumed it was the second. If it’s the first, lol. Lock.

    Edit – Haha Holy Shit! They really are laying 101 points 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

  • marker0357

    they get +101 its. $50 pays $95.50

  • marker0357

    best thing about means that FD likely matches with something similar. I expect a good promotion from them as well.

  • thedkexperience

    @marker0357 said...

    they get +101 its. $50 pays $95.50

    Thanks for the info! Already locked in my $50 bet.

  • realphipps

    @emnj69 said...

    so you are going to discount the past year performance of landry vs obj saying none has predictive value while at the same time you are trying to predict what the browns offense will look like based on what offense their coach ran with a different team?

    Based on…

    What their coaches, plural, have run in the past. Namely making Bill Callahan, one of the architects of the zone scheme, a top priority addition to the staff. He was hired before the offensive and defensive coordinators!

    Based on…

    Personnel. You don’t buy bricks to build a log cabin. And you don’t invest heavily in 12 and 21 personnel to run a different scheme.

    Based on…

    What they’re doing. There are many reports out of Berea of the work they’re putting in. They just held a practice/scrimmage on Friday for everyone to watch. They’re doing a full scrimmage this coming Friday night. “Building the Browns” is literally documenting their every move(s) in practice. They’re not exactly hiding who they are foundationally.

  • squidkill

    @marker0357 said...

    they get +101 its. $50 pays $95.50

    Is that for everyone or new signups??

  • squidkill

    @marker0357 said...

    agree but HOU isn’t going to beat KC by 102 pts. LOL

    Side note. I like the Under

  • TopDawgs07

    @marker0357 said...

    they get +101 its. $50 pays $95.50

    Still living in Ohio where we can’t place sports bets…….

  • CleverGroom

    My Twitter beat writer lists have been updated for the 2020 season.

    I pick one beat from each list to follow directly. My ideal beats #StickToFootball as much as possible (more for my convenience than anything else; I penalize tweets about false, non-NFL sports much more aggressively than topics like social justice), isn’t writing behind a paywall I haven’t subbed to, and is fastidious and prompt with details like who’s not practicing or who’s not warming up before a game. It can take a while to figure out which beats work best with your process. I’ve turned over perhaps a third of my favorites going into this season.

    I usually cut more names from the team lists than I add as the season goes on. Some start much larger than others simply because some teams (CLE, GB, NYG) have much broader coverage than others (HOU, KC, LV). The lists aren’t meant to be complete so much as comprehensive. Rostering 15 sources on a single team is a blatant violation of the Pareto principle.

    Day-to-day, I rely on my one followed beat per team to keep me updated. Prior to games I’ll go check team lists for a more detailed picture. I’ll usually have each team in a separate pane on Tweetdeck leading up to kickoff to ensure I catch any late-breaking news, and close each one out as their games kick off.

    I’d also recommend rounding out your NFL news feed by following Ian Rapoport, Adam Schefter, and your favorite aggregators along the lines of NFL Beat Writers and FantasyLabs NFL.

  • AVivier

    @CleverGroom said...

    My Twitter beat writer lists have been updated for the 2020 season.

    I pick one beat from each list to follow directly. My ideal beats #StickToFootball as much as possible (more for my convenience than anything else; I penalize tweets about false, non-NFL sports much more aggressively than topics like social justice), isn’t writing behind a paywall I haven’t subbed to, and is fastidious and prompt with details like who’s not practicing or who’s not warming up before a game. It can take a while to figure out which beats work best with your process.

    I usually cut more names from the team lists than I add as the season goes on. Some start much larger than others simply because some teams (CLE, GB, NYG) have much broader coverage than others (HOU, KC, LV). The lists aren’t meant to be complete so much as comprehensive. You’ll inevitably get repetition whenever you check multiple sources on the same team, but I don’t want to have to scroll back through 200 tweets on the same five topics just to get through a single day of practice notes. Rostering 15 sources on a single team is a blatant violation of the Pareto principle.

    Day-to-day, I rely on my one followed beat per team to keep me updated. Prior to games I’ll go check team lists for a more detailed picture. I’ll usually have each team in a separate pane on Tweetdeck leading up to kickoff to ensure I catch any late-breaking news, and close each one out as their games kick off.

    I’d also recommend rounding out your NFL news feed by following Ian Rapoport, Adam Schefter, and your favorite aggregators along the lines of NFL Beat Writers and FantasyLabs NFL.

    And to be really blunt about it, if you aren’t regularly following information on twitter, especially this year, you are one of the marks. This is all must do if you plan to do anything other than just have fun.

  • Playtaw1n

    @BIF said...

    What about the other side ? Everyone wants to get cute and play pieces from the 7.5pt underdog here (which I get) but I was looking at the SF offense which may go a little underowned.

    Kittle against Zona will be chalky but if Deebo misses, Bourne has a chance to smash and Jimmy G has some upside against that D. Still looking over camp reports and other sources on this one but this one peaks my interest.

    I didn’t mention the 49ers side because my hot take here is I like the cardinals defense as well. Brett Kollman did a good video worth checking out, making a strong case for the cardinals defense to improve a lot from last year.

    I don’t think it’s crazy to see Jimmy g having a bad game here especially if Samuel/Aiyuk are limited

  • CleverGroom

    @Playtaw1n said...

    I don’t think it’s crazy to see Jimmy g having a bad game here especially if Samuel/Aiyuk are limited

    Niners could win a close game or a blowout and Jimmy G could still have a terrible game for fantasy purposes. He’s got plenty of paths to failure. To be perfectly clear, I think I’ll own some stacks, but I doubt that I’ll have him as a core play.

  • squidkill

    @AVivier said...

    And to be really blunt about it, if you aren’t regularly following information on twitter, especially this year, you are one of the marks. This is all must do if you plan to do anything other than just have fun.

    If you play dfs even semi serious and not on Twitter, I can’t help you

  • marker0357

    @squidkill said...

    Is that for everyone or new signups??

    everyone Squid. Separate bonuses for signup.

  • squidkill

    @marker0357 said...

    everyone Squid. Separate bonuses for signup.

    Thx. Gotta take a ride

  • Playtaw1n

    I’m interested in your take on this Atlanta/Seattle game Clever. I know you’re a Seattle homer but do you think swapping mcdougald for Adams is even a major upgrade from a coverage standpoint? I have the feeling this Seattle secondary is fairly overrated and are up to a pretty steep task considering they were bottom 3 in adj sack rate last year and lost their top pass rusher. Adams is likely the best edge on the team.

    For stacking it’s an easy game because if it shoots out, the guys who go off should be fairly obvious (Ridley/Julio/Hurst) and run back with DK/Lockett

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