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  • Smallchimp

    Thursday, September 10th
    8:20 PM EST Houston (10) at Kansas City (-10) —- T: 55

    Sunday, September 13th
    1:00 PM EST NY Jets (6) at Buffalo (-6) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST Green Bay (3.5) at Minnesota (-3.5) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST Philadelphia (-6) at Washington (6) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST Cleveland (9) at Baltimore (-9) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST Indianapolis (-7) at Jacksonville (7) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST Las Vegas (-1) at Carolina (1) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST Chicago (1.5) at Detroit (-1.5) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST Seattle (-1) at Atlanta (1) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST Miami (-6.5) at New England (6.5) —- T: 43.5

    4:05 PM EST LA Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati (3.5) —- T: 44

    4:25 PM EST Arizona (7.5) at San Francisco (-7.5) —- T: 46
    4:25 PM EST Tampa Bay (4) at New Orleans (-4) —- T: 49.5

    8:20 PM EST Dallas (-2.5) at LA Rams (2.5) —- T: 50

    Monday, September 14th
    7:15 PM EST Pittsburgh (-3.5) at NY Giants (3.5) —- T: 48

    10:10 PM EST Tennessee (2.5) at Denver (-2.5) —- T: 42

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • marker0357

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Still living in Ohio where we can’t place sports bets…….

    sucks for you. Y’all need to lobby. Caught between 2 states who now have it with MI likely to soon follow. Leggo Buckeyes.

  • fitz2k2

    Thoughts on joe vs chargers? No derwin

  • AVivier

    @fitz2k2 said...

    Thoughts on joe vs chargers? No derwin

    Boyd is going to eat, eat and eat. Like Burrow too, but Boyd is the WR play in this game. Burrow liked the slot in college and has had a great connection with Boyd in camp.

  • CleverGroom

    @Playtaw1n said...

    I’m interested in your take on this Atlanta/Seattle game Clever. I know you’re a Seattle homer but do you think swapping mcdougald for Adams is even a major upgrade from a coverage standpoint? I have the feeling this Seattle secondary is fairly overrated and are up to a pretty steep task considering they were bottom 3 in adj sack rate last year and lost their top pass rusher. Adams is likely the best edge on the team.

    For stacking it’s an easy game because if it shoots out, the guys who go off should be fairly obvious (Ridley/Julio/Hurst) and run back with DK/Lockett

    Regarding McDougald and Adams, I wouldn’t claim to have the best handle on that situation. My read would be that Adams is more of a difference-maker outside of coverage, particularly as a rusher, as you suggest. I don’t think the secondary moves the needle for me one way or another in this spot.

    Most of the games on the board will go under. Let’s start there. There’s two main reasons I’d see it going under.

    Fair-to-slow situation-neutral pace of play. SEA is the slow side, historically, so this is more of a concern if they lead, especially if they also choose to pound the run instead of #LetRussCook. This is a very real possibility because Brian Schottenheimer is the worst.

    Offensive lines struggle. ATL’s OL was bad last year—worst PFF blocking grades of the Matt Ryan era. The rookies they started on their left side were mediocre to poor, and Lindstrom ultimately landed on IR. The good news/bad news is that they’ve had full continuity in coaching and personnel. The Seahawks aren’t any better, really, though Russell Wilson tends to make his line look better than Ryan can.

    Most OLs are going to struggle in September, 2020, even against bad defenses. This is a primary reason why most of the games will go under. Nobody should be shocked if one or both OLs struggle in this game and hold down scoring.

    The main reasons I’m worried about this game are based in game theory. The stacks are obvious. They’re all trendy ADP darlings, which is one of the only indicators we’ve got for ownership in the preseason. They’re expensive. That’s seldom the path to GPP riches.

    I won’t fade this game entirely (I’m closer to that stand with TB at NO). I don’t think the stacks will be core plays for me either.

  • 808state

    Adams is an upgrade no doubt about it. Dunbar is also an upgrade.

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-examining-jamal-adams-value-and-potential-landing-spots

    https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1214585011464224776?s=20

  • CleverGroom

    @808state said...

    Adams is an upgrade no doubt about it. Dunbar is also an upgrade.

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-examining-jamal-adams-value-and-potential-landing-spots

    https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1214585011464224776?s=20

    Yeah, my guess is that Dunbar is a bigger deal in terms of pure coverage. Adams should make the bigger overall contribution even if he’s not a massive upgrade strictly in coverage.

    The problem is that coverage always fails eventually, absent pass rush, so we’ll have to see what Pete can invent. Adams will help.

  • fitz2k2

    Saints are open to trade kamera. 2020 folks smdh

  • Playtaw1n

    @808state said...

    Adams is an upgrade no doubt about it. Dunbar is also an upgrade.

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-examining-jamal-adams-value-and-potential-landing-spots

    https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1214585011464224776?s=20

    I didn’t mean to imply that Adams was a dud or anything. I agree largely with clever’s take that his impact will be making splash plays and that definitely matters winning games.

    I was coming from the perspective that mcdougald has consistently been a very high ranking man coverage safety among pff and if the swap for Adams doesn’t move the needle much in helping prevent splash plays the other way.

    Dunbar is coming off a really good year but he’s going from a team with a great pass rush to one with none.

  • BIF

    I can’t believe people are willing to give Josh Gordon another chance – he clearly would rather get high than play football; he is the second coming of Ricky Williams….

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29786826/report-josh-gordon-sells-super-bowl-liii-ring-138k-auction

  • WhiteyJones8

    @BIF said...

    I can’t believe people are willing to give Josh Gordon another chance – he clearly would rather get high than play football; he is the second coming of Ricky Williams….

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29786826/report-josh-gordon-sells-super-bowl-liii-ring-138k-auction

    But he was actually really good when he was getting high. It’s after he was forced to quit that he sucked.

    “Play high, score high” -Josh Gordon, probably

  • BIF

    Raiders WR Tyrell Williams put on season ending IR

  • squidkill

    @fitz2k2 said...

    Saints are open to trade kamera. 2020 folks smdh

    Posturing by team vs agent

  • squidkill

    @BIF said...

    Raiders WR Tyrell Williams put on season ending IR

    Not the gazelle. 😐

  • thedkexperience

    I kinda like Cam Newton week one.

  • CleverGroom

    @thedkexperience said...

    I kinda like Cam Newton week one.

    If we’re lucky, only three out of Sony Michel, Damien Harris, James White, and Rex Burkhead will dress, so you’ll probably be able to narrow it to two of the latter three as receiving options. Michel won’t be a good play but will still be a threat to vulture TDs.

    Cam’s TE is Ryan Izzo, followed by two promising rookies who’ve both been set back by injuries in camp.

    His WRs are something like Julian Edelman, followed by N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, and Gunner Olszewski. Did MIA shadow Edelman last year? NE scored 67 points on MIA through two games and Edelman only finished with 7-77-0 on 11 targets through eight quarters. I’m not interested in any of these bums if they’re covered by Byron Jones or Xavien Howard. Chances are they all will be, most of the time.

    Also worth noting that Edelman has been banged up in camp, his best friend left him for a retirement community in Florida, and he’s 34 years old. It’s not impossible to have a good WR season at 34, or even 35. I don’t think anybody’s ever done it past that except for Jerry Rice. You’d have higher hopes that he’d at least start the year strong, then fade, if he hadn’t been pulled off return duties and limited in camp due to an injury that will remain secret because that’s the Patriot Way.

    The OL has had problems too. RT Marcus Cannon opted out. They’ve had injuries throughout camp, but we’ll see how those shake out closer to game day.

    I like Cam. I think he’s in play, ‘cause he’s Cam, and he’s not priced like Cam. He’s difficult to stack. His weapons are high-key trash—show me another team this hard-up. I think WAS has better weapons. NYJ might be a push, but I’d take their personnel over NE’s if I can swap McDaniels for Gase. I’d much rather have JAX’s pieces. MIA definitely has better weapons around Ryan Fitzpatrick.

    It was already unlikely the Pats would repeat last season’s dominant performance on D, and then they lost Patrick Chung and Dont’a Hightower to opt-outs. Fitzmagic gashed NE in a meaningful Week 17 game to close out the year, costing them a bye and setting them up for a Wild Card loss at home to the Titans. That was without breakout rookie Preston Williams, who is better than ever by all accounts (I doubted similar reports on Cooper Kupp a year ago, but look out that turned out). DeVante Parker has been banged up in camp. Fortunately Fitzmagic also has Mike Gesicki, who began to emerge in 2019, plus Matt Breida. Jordan Howard even makes for a weird, unowned standalone option if you think the Pats could get stomped.

    I’m a lot more interested in the MIA side of this game, personally. Fitzmagic stacks make a ton of sense to me. Maybe go Cam/White/Breida/Preston for an ultra-weird game stack.

  • emnj69

    not sure what to make of burrow -he is priced fairly high for never having started a game-he does have some nice weapons at his disposal

  • CleverGroom

    @emnj69 said...

    not sure what to make of burrow -he is priced fairly high for never having started a game-he does have some nice weapons at his disposal

    I like that game a lot. I’m worried I overestimate how much of a loss Derwin James is for LAC D, but then I wonder if that’s even possible. Such a special player. Hope he gets right next year.

    Two right-priced QBs with upside in Tyrod Taylor and Joe Burrow. Two amazing RBs in Joe Mixon and Austin Ekeler. Tyler Boyd is an awesome play. Keenan Allen, Jalen Guyton, Hunter Henry, Auden Tate, John Ross, Tee Higgins, and A.J. Green could all be options. LAC is going to slow the game down and could certainly ruin Joey B’s whole day, but this game still has massive upside to me. So many cheap, contrarian ways to stack it up.

  • thedkexperience

    @CleverGroom said...

    If we’re lucky, only three out of Sony Michel, Damien Harris, James White, and Rex Burkhead will dress, so you’ll probably be able to narrow it to two of the latter three as receiving options. Michel won’t be a good play but will still be a threat to vulture TDs.

    Cam’s TE is Ryan Izzo, followed by two promising rookies who’ve both been set back by injuries in camp.

    His WRs are something like Julian Edelman, followed by N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, and Gunner Olszewski. Did MIA shadow Edelman last year? NE scored 67 points on MIA through two games and Edelman only finished with 7-77-0 on 11 targets through eight quarters. I’m not interested in any of these bums if they’re covered by Byron Jones or Xavien Howard. Chances are they all will be, most of the time.

    Also worth noting that Edelman has been banged up in camp, his best friend left him for a retirement community in Florida, and he’s 34 years old. It’s not impossible to have a good WR season at 34, or even 35. I don’t think anybody’s ever done it past that except for Jerry Rice. You’d have higher hopes that he’d at least start the year strong, then fade, if he hadn’t been pulled off return duties and limited in camp due to an injury that will remain secret because that’s the Patriot Way.

    The OL has had problems too. RT Marcus Cannon opted out. They’ve had injuries throughout camp, but we’ll see how those shake out closer to game day.

    I like Cam. I think he’s in play, ‘cause he’s Cam, and he’s not priced like Cam. He’s difficult to stack. His weapons are high-key trash—show me another team this hard-up. I think WAS has better weapons. NYJ might be a push, but I’d take their personnel over NE’s if I can swap McDaniels for Gase. I’d much rather have JAX’s pieces. MIA definitely has better weapons around Ryan Fitzpatrick.

    It was already unlikely the Pats would repeat last season’s dominant performance on D, and then they lost Patrick Chung and Dont’a Hightower to opt-outs. Fitzmagic gashed NE in a meaningful Week 17 game to close out the year, costing them a bye and setting them up for a Wild Card loss at home to the Titans. That was without breakout rookie Preston Williams, who is better than ever by all accounts (I doubted similar reports on Cooper Kupp a year ago, but look out that turned out). DeVante Parker has been banged up in camp. Fortunately Fitzmagic also has Mike Gesicki, who began to emerge in 2019, plus Matt Breida. Jordan Howard even makes for a weird, unowned standalone option if you think the Pats could get stomped.

    I’m a lot more interested in the MIA side of this game, personally. Fitzmagic stacks make a ton of sense to me. Maybe go Cam/White/Breida/Preston for an ultra-weird game stack.

    I also like Fitz quite a bit. The only people I trust around Cam are Edelman (that’s who I’ll stack) and White (not this week). I went Cam over Fitz in my build essentially based on Gilmore being the tie breaker. I feel more confident that Edelman will get 10 targets and figure out how to pull down 8 of them than I do any Miami WR going off against NE.

    As for the NE departures they will certainly have an impact but I still have them at 10 wins. Miami is improved but still a 5-6 win team. The Jets stinks. I like Buffalo but I do not like Buffalo’s schedule.

    At the end of the day, more than any other team, I’ll throw out what the previous game logs for NE say and simply go with Belichick and McDaniels making it work. Cheap Cam could break the slate. I love Fitz but this doesn’t smell like a Fitzmagic week to me.

  • thedkexperience

    @emnj69 said...

    not sure what to make of burrow -he is priced fairly high for never having started a game-he does have some nice weapons at his disposal

    If you’re multi-entering it’s worth a 1 LU dart throw. If you’re single entering it’s the type of sink or swim move that will have a huge impact on if you’re profitable or not. If you’re playing cash it’s just a bad move.

    Personally I like to get the least expensive reasonably safe 20 points I can find out of the QB spot. Burrow may be able to get there but he’s far from safe this early in his career.

    It really comes down to your risk profile. If you’re cool with risking last place overall to grab a GPP win then he’s a great option. If you’ll quit DFS for the year based on one bad week, probably go with someone more expensive.

  • emnj69

    @thedkexperience said...

    If you’re multi-entering it’s worth a 1 LU dart throw. If you’re single entering it’s the type of sink or swim move that will have a huge impact on if you’re profitable or not. If you’re playing cash it’s just a bad move.

    Personally I like to get the least expensive reasonably safe 20 points I can find out of the QB spot. Burrow may be able to get there but he’s far from safe this early in his career.

    It really comes down to your risk profile. If you’re cool with risking last place overall to grab a GPP win then he’s a great option. If you’ll quit DFS for the year based on one bad week, probably go with someone more expensive.

    I am gpp only guy. I tend to like cheap qbs and value rbs and load up on stud wrs

  • CleverGroom

    @thedkexperience said...

    I feel more confident that Edelman will get 10 targets and figure out how to pull down 8 of them than I do any Miami WR going off against NE.

    Parker had 8-137-0 last time and Gilmore didn’t miss a snap. Just saying. I can’t check shadow coverage but my guess would’ve been Gilmore on him all game. He was on somebody.

    I don’t usually care about defensive matchups for receivers (or at least I try not to). The exceptions are situations like Damiere Byrd vs. Xavier Howard. I didn’t want to play Byrd in the first place.

    ETA: Yeah, Gilmore shadowed Parker almost 100% in Week 17, and Parker walked him like a dog. Might’ve cost Gilmore DPOY honors. It happens. Not often for, like, Byrd vs. Howard or Jones, but good receivers often beat good corners. That’s what makes them good.

  • thedkexperience

    @CleverGroom said...

    Parker had 8-137-0 last time and Gilmore didn’t miss a snap. Just saying. I can’t check shadow coverage but my guess would’ve been Gilmore on him all game. He was on somebody.

    I don’t usually care about defensive matchups for receivers (or at least I try not to). The exceptions are situations like Damiere Byrd vs. Xavier Howard. I didn’t want to play Byrd in the first place.

    Fair point. My only reply to that is Belichick has had an entire off season to make sure that doesn’t happen again.

    Also while NE definitely has some defensive issues due to the opt outs, I like to think that they will be much healthier next week than they were after 15 games. NE lost a lot of steam defensively. It could mean they are in for a massively bad season but I’m just not buying it. I’m buying Belichick and I’m 100% dying on the BB hill this season.

    On a side note … if it ever comes off like I’m being combative, I definitely do not mean it that way. I really truly enjoy your in depth deep dives. They are quite informative. I’ve always just been more of a feel player in DFS than a stats player. Inevitably I’ll have a few takes that make you think I’m a crazy person or a dip shit but I’m often a week or two ahead of trends and have had very good results that way.

  • squidkill

    NE will be a run funnel – Teams will gash them on the ground and not thru the air.

  • CleverGroom

    @thedkexperience said...

    Also while NE definitely has some defensive issues due to the opt outs, I like to think that they will be much healthier next week than they were after 15 games. NE lost a lot of steam defensively. It could mean they are in for a massively bad season but I’m just not buying it. I’m buying Belichick and I’m 100% dying on the BB hill this season.

    The Dolphins are healthier too, and noticeably more talented than they were the last time they beat NE (they have running backs now!). How have the Patriots gotten better? Have they ever started seasons slow under Belichick? Have they ever underperformed against the Dolphins? Have they ever dropped a game to a smirking Belichick disciple?

    I’m not saying Ryan Fitzpatrick and Preston Williams are optimal cash game plays (although Tyrod Taylor might be one, incidentally). I’m just saying that GPP-winning games are within their range of outcomes. We’ve got a long history of it with Fitzmagic. With Preston you’re betting on a guy who was arguably on track to be the most impressive rookie WR of 2019, missed time with an injury, and reportedly hasn’t lost a step in camp. I want to be early on these 2nd-year guys.

    Marquise Brown and A.J. Brown are ultra-trendy names from that 2019 WR class, but another example would be J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. If you just threw up in your mouth a little, hey, I get it. Sure, maybe he’s Nelson Agholor. But maybe he’s DJ Chark. Still too early to tell, if you ask me.

  • JTAx33

    Obviously we’re a week and a half out, but I like how much I’m struggling with a cash game build. Increased QB pricing makes decision making tough, and it’ll only get harder when we don’t get Sanders at 6.3

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