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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 9th
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( 7.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -7.5 ) —- T: 50.5

    Sunday, September 12th
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -1 ) at Washington ( 1 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Atlanta ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at Houston ( 3 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -7.5 ) at Detroit ( 7.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 51.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 7 ) at Buffalo ( -7 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 4.5 ) at Carolina ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 1.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 50
    4:25 PM EST : Denver ( -1.5 ) at NY Giants ( 1.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cleveland ( 6 ) at Kansas City ( -6 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Miami ( 2.5 ) at New England ( -2.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:20 PM EST : Chicago ( 7 ) at LA Rams ( -7 ) —- T: 45

    Monday, September 13th
    8:15 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 4.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • squidkill

    Oh hello

  • zovyn

    Since there are no pre-season slate threads and yet I know some of you degens are playing because I see your SNs in my FD contests pass by from time to time, I’ll toss in one for tonight’s MNF Jags@Saints game:

    Aldrick Rosas revenge game factor is high!

    :P

  • marker0357

    Wentz played with the first team today after returning to practice after surgery. I thought he looked really sharp but the O-line continues to be a ? with injuries, especially to Fisher at LT. Luckily, they don’t face a big pass rush in week 1.

  • Smallchimp

    I recently picked up Matt Harmon’s “Reception Perception” subscription for the season, and I’m wondering if anyone here has tried to leverage it as another source of data for analysis? Harmon and the Fantasy Footballers claim that there’s actionable information for who’s prone for a breakout due to their route success or performance in man/zone/press coverages, but I’m wondering if anyone has success stories from it. Anything to help predict regression or outright progression seems like +EV

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Calloway just found his way into nearly every week 1 lineup

  • emnj69

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    Calloway just found his way into nearly every week 1 lineup

    was hoping he would go under the radar but not happening now…him and Marvin will be super high owned

  • NDNole

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    Calloway just found his way into nearly every week 1 lineup

    I was really hoping he wouldnt do much this preseason. I had him locked in week one. SMH. Might have to eat that chalk.

  • siddom

    @emnj69 said...

    was hoping he would go under the radar but not happening now…him and Marvin will be super high owned

    i guess you have to play mcaffery then, no way around it.

  • ElSlappo

    Superdraft has a couple of beefy GPPs for week 1, especially compared to their recent sizing for MLB/PGA. Calloway may garner a bit of ownership there as well

  • NDNole

    My first guess is week one may be a good week to go high at WR with callaway and Jones looking so good at a low price. Likely CMC and Dalvin will get some good ownership due to the wr value. Just my inititial thoughts. Still have a good deal of time to see how things flesh out.

  • Smallchimp

    Robinson at $6400 pre ETN injury felt super lukewarm as far as value goes. Now, he’s back in the equation pretty firmly. The Robinson/Callaway/Jones/cheap DST stack leaves nearly $7K per remaining spot. I doubt I’d go double cheap WR, especially where one is on a bad team and the other is one of like two weapons on the field, but dang

  • bazerko

    Etienne is out for the season per Adam Schefter, so I am guessing James Robinson will be high owned

  • NDNole

    Laviska gonna tilt everybody lol.

  • mnstone14

    @NDNole said...

    Laviska gonna tilt everybody lol.

    Yeah, I don’t get the Jones love. Assuming chark plays he’s clearly #3.

  • NDNole

    @mnstone14 said...

    Yeah, I don’t get the Jones love. Assuming chark plays he’s clearly #3.

    True. He is the #3 but he can do #1 type things any Sunday. Pretty sure he will break a slate this year. And he is probably more of a 2A or B. Those three will probably get even amount of targets.

  • siddom

    Thoughts on getting a couple of players from noon games on the main slate or better to fill players from the early/main slate?

  • squidkill

    @siddom said...

    Thoughts on getting a couple of players from noon games on the main slate or better to fill players from the early/main slate?

    I don’t understand

  • Smallchimp

    @siddom said...

    Thoughts on getting a couple of players from noon games on the main slate or better to fill players from the early/main slate?

    Just play good players, period. Trying to game theory it by playing players from arbitrary starting time games feels like a losing strategy.

  • siddom

    @Smallchimp said...

    Just play good players, period. Trying to game theory it by playing players from arbitrary starting time games feels like a losing strategy.

    It just doesn’t sit well with me when all off
    The past winners have had 2-3 players from late games

  • squidkill

    @siddom said...

    It just doesn’t sit well with me when all off
    The past winners have had 2-3 players from late games

    Im not sure what is happening here. Past winners from what? There are hundreds of contests, all different slates, all types of combos.

  • siddom

    @squidkill said...

    Im not sure what is happening here. Past winners from what? There are hundreds of contests, all different slates, all types of combos.

    week 1 -16 milly maker winners.

  • Smallchimp

    @siddom said...

    It just doesn’t sit well with me when all off
    The past winners have had 2-3 players from late games

    My point is that out of all predictors/trends/correlations with success; I don’t think trying to nail a certain distribution of players across different start times is a worthwhile thing to force as a lineup construction tool. It’s fairly arbitrary, and I don’t think you should look at past winning lineups to find a pattern with that exact feature.

    Now, I think it’s less likely a winning lineup is exclusively 1 pm or 4 pm games, and I wouldn’t optimize for that, but in general, if you build a good lineup, it’ll probably have time diversity baked in. Try to focus on aspects of a lineup that have intrinsic value/explain for themselves why they should be tournament winners.

  • NDNole

    @Smallchimp said...

    Now, I think it’s less likely a winning lineup is exclusively 1 pm or 4 pm games, and I wouldn’t optimize for that, but in general, if you build a good lineup, it’ll probably have time diversity baked in. Try to focus on aspects of a lineup that have intrinsic value/explain for themselves why they should be tournament winners.

    From what I have seen, you are going to get hawked down by a lineup with a late game player a high percentage of the time unless the early slate just had tremendous high scores. Not playing at least one player from the late game is not optimal if you are trying to take down a GPP. I get the whole build the best lineup talk. Fact is the best lineup usually has a late player and typically 2 of them at least. Its an observable fact.

  • squidkill

    @NDNole said...

    From what I have seen, you are going to get hawked down by a lineup with a late game player a high percentage of the time unless the early slate just had tremendous high scores. Not playing at least one player from the late game is not optimal if you are trying to take down a GPP. I get the whole build the best lineup talk. Fact is the best lineup usually has a late player and typically 2 of them at least. Its an observable fact.

    oh i was looking for the noon time games

  • NDNole

    @squidkill said...

    oh i was looking for the noon time games

    Yeah my take is strictly on GPP. Its weird because you’d think it shouldnt matter but it certainly does. There is almost always that one guy or two who makes the difference in the late game a good deal of the time.

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