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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 9th
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( 7.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -7.5 ) —- T: 50.5

    Sunday, September 12th
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -1 ) at Washington ( 1 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Atlanta ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at Houston ( 3 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -7.5 ) at Detroit ( 7.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 51.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 7 ) at Buffalo ( -7 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 4.5 ) at Carolina ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 1.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 50
    4:25 PM EST : Denver ( -1.5 ) at NY Giants ( 1.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cleveland ( 6 ) at Kansas City ( -6 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Miami ( 2.5 ) at New England ( -2.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:20 PM EST : Chicago ( 7 ) at LA Rams ( -7 ) —- T: 45

    Monday, September 13th
    8:15 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 4.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • thedkexperience

    @jcotdl said...

    I just missed on picking up Bell(not sure how much he has in the tank anyway)- but it is just brutal to see people go down so close to the season. guess it’s just a preview of Sunday but still brutal..

    This is what people get for holding their drafts before week 18.

  • monarch

    I didn’t know the MVP also played corner

  • jcotdl

    @thedkexperience said...

    This is what people get for holding their drafts before week 18.

    i was mad about being 6 minutes late to get Bell, then reminded myself i think he’s finished- then got really sad thinking about which of my studs will inevitably get hurt this weekend.. and no, it is not too early to start drinking

  • monarch

    HEY BIF….if I needed a TB flyer other than Bernard do you like Scotty Miller or OJ Howard for maybe two catches and a score?

  • BIF

    @monarch said...

    HEY BIF….if I needed a TB flyer other than Bernard do you like Scotty Miller or OJ Howard for maybe two catches and a score?

    Prob OJ

  • thedkexperience

    @jcotdl said...

    i was mad about being 6 minutes late to get Bell, then reminded myself i think he’s finished- then got really sad thinking about which of my studs will inevitably get hurt this weekend.. and no, it is not too early to start drinking

    I haven’t had a cigarette since about 2007 and I’m not gonna now, but I definitely have that want to smoke a cigarette feeling this afternoon lol

  • joephoto

    @squidkill said...

    Take the zeke ones and light them on fire

    Agree.
    I have 13 lineups (because I had 13 tickets)
    Not a Zeke Elliott in a one. I do have Tony Pollard in a couple.

  • siddom

    kJ hamler better play than one of the Moore brothers?

  • jcotdl

    .. does anyone else put in Thur-Mon lineups without anyone from tonight’s game? I believe this was discussed last year but have always found that due to (extremely) elevated ownership (of Thurs game) there can often be a large advantage to be gained by largely fading it.. i would also guess this is even more prevalent in this first week, with rabid casuals desperate for a shootout.. i like a few pieces from tonight’s game but will be using them sparingly, fwiw..

  • monarch

    There are so many combinations tonight. Not a 150 max player but I could make 150 on this slate.

  • timusbr

    @thedkexperience said...

    I know people who actually believe in fantasy lockerroom guys.

    Its funny that they spend money on it. haha same bye week. I noticed a lot of weird ass early picks, my last draft I was sniped like 8 times in 20 rounds. I just know 1/2 or more of my friends would enter right now fake it and choose next man up unless his childhood team has a star up in the next 3-5 picks.

    The more I play the more I adjust my drafts and think I get better. Then I tell myself for every 2 of them there is still 3 sharps.

    and dammit its fun to pound your chest, with or without money on the game. Its the NFL

  • timusbr

    @jcotdl said...

    .. does anyone else put in Thur-Mon lineups without anyone from tonight’s game?

    Most of the time I look for 1 guy from thur game. Ive done a bunch with none and a few with a bunch. Tonight I got 1

  • timusbr

    Hey whats the over under on # of winning dupes on the $10 tonight?
    DK sportsbook should have a line.

  • thedkexperience

    @jcotdl said...

    .. does anyone else put in Thur-Mon lineups without anyone from tonight’s game? I believe this was discussed last year but have always found that due to (extremely) elevated ownership (of Thurs game) there can often be a large advantage to be gained by largely fading it.. i would also guess this is even more prevalent in this first week, with rabid casuals desperate for a shootout.. i like a few pieces from tonight’s game but will be using them sparingly, fwiw..

    You’re not wrong but I think the 3 entry max is a good game today. Take one Tampa stack, one Dallas stack, and then a stack from Monday night. If you miss you still got all your Sunday lineups to make up for it. That’s my theory any way.

    Only gotta get one lineup right in the end lol

    You might even say you only need one shot, one opportunity …

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 262

      RG Overall Ranking

    @timusbr said...

    Hey whats the over under on # of winning dupes on the $10 tonight?
    DK sportsbook should have a line.

    Wondering the same thing. Seems like a LOT more entries than previous years as I have been perusing ResultsDB. Shout out to BIF for chopping in 2018 54 ways with half the amount of entries. That game was a pillow fight. Not sure what double the entries and an anticipated shootout means for the number of dupes this year. Maybe 250 way chop…who knows

  • monarch

    I think it will be chopped heavily but there are a lot of combinations tonight. I think you could build 150 viable Antonio Brown CPT lineups alone. Very soft pricing and a lot of the field will be making mistakes.

  • timusbr

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    Maybe 250 way chop…who knows

    I was thinking 100 but…..as you explained, 250 is better than 100.

    I was also thinking people dupping themselves and running trains because they want extra shares of the split.

    edit: LMAO 251st pays $400.
    so split 1Million or those max players lose a bunch.

  • Skee

    @jcotdl said...

    .. does anyone else put in Thur-Mon lineups without anyone from tonight’s game? I believe this was discussed last year but have always found that due to (extremely) elevated ownership (of Thurs game) there can often be a large advantage to be gained by largely fading it.. i would also guess this is even more prevalent in this first week, with rabid casuals desperate for a shootout.. i like a few pieces from tonight’s game but will be using them sparingly, fwiw..

    Yeah I have done that. The idea being that are playing it so they can use players from the game.. so if you fade everyone and it works out you have advantages at a couple spots.

    Tonight I am actually using a player though to get a bit of an unusual set up.

    One annoying part is sometimes you can’t get a good contest but actually I am loving DK so far (except for the fact that I haven’t played a game, heh) contest selection is so much better.

  • 808state

    Smith back on the injury report along with Lattimore.

  • monarch

    @808state said...

    Smith back on the injury report along with Lattimore.

    Smith? Never heard of him

  • 808state

    @NDNole said...

    I keep going back to Jackobi Meyers as a sneaky play.

    Agholor not practicing

  • jcotdl

    @thedkexperience said...

    Only gotta get one lineup right in the end lol

    indeed. however, it’s easy to envision multitude scenarios where none of these Thurs players are needed in the larger slate.. gonna skip all but the TB DEF, personally, so i am sure folks can comfortably chalk the Dallas O to go nuts.. will deploy in limited fashion
    ya’ know, one shot and all

  • jcotdl

    @Skee said...

    Yeah I have done that. The idea being that are playing it so they can use players from the game.. so if you fade everyone and it works out you have advantages at a couple spots.

    Tonight I am actually using a player though to get a bit of an unusual set up.

    One annoying part is sometimes you can’t get a good contest but actually I am loving DK so far (except for the fact that I haven’t played a game, heh) contest selection is so much better.

    i think the fact this is week one makes this the ideal time to deploy this fade; that said, people should enjoy a huge shootout as i cry into my beer..

  • ifthethunder

    @monarch said...

    and a lot of the field will be making mistakes.

    I heard that!

    What do you think about running backs for tonight? I agree with squid, I’m not making enough l.u.s to include Zeke.

    OTOH, if the script goes Arians’ way, one of Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones II could be necessary.

    As for Gio, I don’t mind throwing him into one or two of my “Cowboys get the upset or at least keep it close” lineups. In this scenario, things aren’t going as smoothly for the Bucs so perhaps Gio gets on the field for more 3rd down plays than he is priced for.
    ~

  • monarch

    Running backs are fine. They don’t correlate very well to a high scoring game. The more you like Dak Prescott or Tom Brady the less you like Ezekiel Elliot, Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones III. Because…especially if you put the QB in CPT (which I don’t advise) you want to correlate your QB exposure with pass catchers.

    There are plenty of slates (Ravens, Steelers, Patriots) where running backs, DST, kickers, tight ends get there in a more median projection type slate and this one could be that as well. An optimizer will give you more of that but will be less correlated. If Tom Brady (a non-runner) is optimal then he brings two of his receivers with him and then Dak actually has higher vegas data than Brady tonight. Now Dak doesn’t need all of his receivers to be optimal because he runs more but the most likely scenario for Dak being optimal is with two of his receivers and at the very least one.

    So I am not getting to much at the running back position. Some Rojo and a lot of Gio…I consider him a pairing with Brady.

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