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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 9th
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( 7.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -7.5 ) —- T: 50.5

    Sunday, September 12th
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -1 ) at Washington ( 1 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Atlanta ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at Houston ( 3 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -7.5 ) at Detroit ( 7.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 51.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 7 ) at Buffalo ( -7 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 4.5 ) at Carolina ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 1.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 50
    4:25 PM EST : Denver ( -1.5 ) at NY Giants ( 1.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cleveland ( 6 ) at Kansas City ( -6 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Miami ( 2.5 ) at New England ( -2.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:20 PM EST : Chicago ( 7 ) at LA Rams ( -7 ) —- T: 45

    Monday, September 13th
    8:15 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 4.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Smallchimp

    Fading the Thursday game on a weeklong slate isn’t a bad idea in theory, but this one of the scarier matchups to bow out of. Skipping replaceable outings from the 3 Tampa WRs would be a nice edge, but IDK.

  • timusbr

    I am such a degenerate sucker. My sportsbook offered : a $50+ bet tonight they will give $6 for every Brady and Prescott TD pass. seeing I like the over and my DFS is 2 QB’s 3 WR’s and a TE…. I had to get me some…. Good Luck to me

  • Bradsh86

    • Ranked #98

      RG Tiered Ranking

    so i have two players excluded and no groups or exp. applied yet..but i cant even build 40 line ups for the showdown slate, what gives?

  • BIF

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    Shout out to BIF for chopping in 2018 54 ways with half the amount of entries. That game was a pillow fight.

    Thanks – that was a weird one; had Julio as Captain and he smashed but also played the Eagles Defense and it was probably the only time Jay Ajayi had a good fantasy game for the Eagles definitely was the only time he was an optimal play.

  • BIF

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    Maybe 250 way chop…who knows

    Could be as it’s really a fairly tight pool of playable options (unless something weird happens) and if a chalky captain is also optimal, it’ll be a big split.

  • miggs6876

    @monarch said...

    Running backs are fine. They don’t correlate very well to a high scoring game. The more you like Dak Prescott or Tom Brady the less you like Ezekiel Elliot, Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones III. Because…especially if you put the QB in CPT (which I don’t advise) you want to correlate your QB exposure with pass catchers.

    There are plenty of slates (Ravens, Steelers, Patriots) where running backs, DST, kickers, tight ends get there in a more median projection type slate and this one could be that as well. An optimizer will give you more of that but will be less correlated. If Tom Brady (a non-runner) is optimal then he brings two of his receivers with him and then Dak actually has higher vegas data than Brady tonight. Now Dak doesn’t need all of his receivers to be optimal because he runs more but the most likely scenario for Dak being optimal is with two of his receivers and at the very least one.

    So I am not getting to much at the running back position. Some Rojo and a lot of Gio…I consider him a pairing with Brady.

    Nice post.

  • jcotdl

    @Smallchimp said...

    Fading the Thursday game on a weeklong slate isn’t a bad idea in theory, but this one of the scarier matchups to bow out of. Skipping replaceable outings from the 3 Tampa WRs would be a nice edge, but IDK.

    that was my thought- all TB offense shares production, Dal OFF is mostly stifled.. something like a 24-10 TB win with a bunch of sacks and TO’s for Tampa.. meh- we’ll see how it goes but i will mostly fade this game and think it goes under in a big way..

  • theIrrigator

    • 475

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @monarch said...

    especially if you put the QB in CPT (which I don’t advise) you want to correlate your QB exposure with pass catchers.

    I have a few shares of each QB at captain for this SD. But do usually avoid QB at Captain. I did make a rule though to include 2 pass catchers minimum for those lineups

  • BIF

    @jcotdl said...

    that was my thought- all TB offense shares production, Dal OFF is mostly stifled.. something like a 24-10 TB win with a bunch of sacks and TO’s for Tampa.. meh- we’ll see how it goes but i will mostly fade this game and think it goes under in a big way..

    I sure hope it’s not 24-10 as I hit the Over 51.5 pretty hard.

    Bucs should score 4 or more TDs and Dallas will get theirs. While the Bucs D is fast and improved from past seasons, they are not a shutdown D but more of a D that makes plays – they get sacks and force turnovers but they also get passed on by good teams.

    My view is that there is no way Dallas can win a low scoring game and it’s unlikely they have much success running so they will have to pass which should lead to more points (possibly) both ways.

  • theIrrigator

    • 475

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I also have way too much Gio that I should probably cut back on

  • monarch

    @theIrrigator said...

    I also have way too much Gio that I should probably cut back on

    Maybe move some of that to OJ Howard

  • ifthethunder

    @miggs6876 said...

    Nice post.

    Agreed. I’m still using Brady at CPT in one, because I have 10. Did add Gio to that one, it’s only got one Cowboy.

    BTW the spread at DK is out to TB -9. I used my risk-free single game parlay bet on DAL +9 and under 53 points. Figures it’s a hedge (if you look at it sideways) for my being heavy on Tampa with the tickets. (Also, risk free anywho…$91.11 or my money back.)

    P.S. One hour to go and it’s 352,420 / 473K. I guess it won’t fill but they’re going to get around 400,000 – 410,000.
    ~

  • theIrrigator

    • 475

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @monarch said...

    Maybe move some of that to OJ Howard

    I was leaning Brate but I see his projection has been reduced. Did I miss some coach speak to suggest Howard is the play?

  • jcotdl

    huge participation numbers- but how many around here are using TB DEF as captain? gotta imagine that own% will be low?

  • marker0357

    any news on inactives for tonight?

  • Smallchimp

    @jcotdl said...

    huge participation numbers- but how many around here are using TB DEF as captain? gotta imagine that own% will be low?

    What’s the game script where that makes sense? A defensive TD, some turnovers, and heavy distribution of targets where no pass catcher is especially great?

  • monarch

    @theIrrigator said...

    I was leaning Brate but I see his projection has been reduced. Did I miss some coach speak to suggest Howard is the play?

    I don’t think so. I think OJ is an upside play…he has worked hard to get back into the fray. Brady (narrative) may reward the young guy for getting back into action. If they didn’t like him they probably would have parted ways with him.

  • theIrrigator

    • 475

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    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jcotdl said...

    huge participation numbers- but how many around here are using TB DEF as captain? gotta imagine that own% will be low?

    0 for me

  • monarch

  • jcotdl

    @Smallchimp said...

    What’s the game script where that makes sense? A defensive TD, some turnovers, and heavy distribution of targets where no pass catcher is especially great?

    exactly my thought.. game goes under, and all pass catchers (not named Ceedee) are mediocre.. TB defensive touch would be huge

  • marker0357

    Gracias

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 262

      RG Overall Ranking

    @theIrrigator said...

    I also have way too much Gio that I should probably cut back on

    I went through that issue about an hour ago…scaled back a bit by removing him from some of my captain Brady LUs hoping that he correlates better in a game where brady doesn’t light it up and it’s a laugher. Seems better with close (ish) game, game script where he’s more viable on 3rd down dump offs

  • thedkexperience

    @jcotdl said...

    that was my thought- all TB offense shares production, Dal OFF is mostly stifled.. something like a 24-10 TB win with a bunch of sacks and TO’s for Tampa.. meh- we’ll see how it goes but i will mostly fade this game and think it goes under in a big way..

    I just don’t see any chance of Dallas getting stuck to 10 points. Dak was on pace for like 6700 yards when he got hurt.

    They’ll most likely lose but they’ll get theirs.

  • DaBum2012

    • 2018 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Finally finished my lineups. Two years ago, I was 0.34 points away from getting that million but tied with a bunch of people for whatever the hell the 2nd or 3rd place prize was. If only one of my guys at least threw a touch down or ran just a smidgen more, I could’ve taken it. Last year, I got my butt whipped when one of my dudes got injured. I lost out in $200 last time and bombed badly. In 20 more minutes we’ll all find out how we all do. Good luck everyone!

  • ifthethunder

    @ifthethunder said...

    P.S. One hour to go and it’s 352,420 / 473K. I guess it won’t fill but they’re going to get around 400,000 – 410,000.

    Survey SAYS…407,695 / 473K.

    Getting to work figuring out how to spend that million right now.
    ~

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