NFL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 9th
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( 7.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -7.5 ) —- T: 50.5

    Sunday, September 12th
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -1 ) at Washington ( 1 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Atlanta ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3 ) at Houston ( 3 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -7.5 ) at Detroit ( 7.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 51.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 7 ) at Buffalo ( -7 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 4.5 ) at Carolina ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 1.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 50
    4:25 PM EST : Denver ( -1.5 ) at NY Giants ( 1.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cleveland ( 6 ) at Kansas City ( -6 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Miami ( 2.5 ) at New England ( -2.5 ) —- T: 45
    8:20 PM EST : Chicago ( 7 ) at LA Rams ( -7 ) —- T: 45

    Monday, September 13th
    8:15 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 4.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • thedkexperience

    @monarch said...

    I think ATL D is chalk. I am defaulting to them…going to be at a disadvantage though if they score like three DK points and someone like the Bills score 20 which is not unlikely….Bills are underpriced

    If the ATL D is chalk then I’ve somehow morphed from an idiot who yells at clouds to a fantasy expert myself.

  • mnstone14

    @siddom said...

    Rondale or Elijah Moore now that crowders not playing week 1?

    Rondale has higher total but Elijah has the usage.

    I think the smarter play with the crowder news is playing Davis now. Real chance he gets double digit targets at (barely) sub 5k. Moore gets what, 5-6 tops.

  • blakevoiles

    Star Lotulelei is out for the Bills. Feels like Harris’ matchup just got better for him do they have another interior player that can defend the run as well as him? Also, for anyone who pays attention to the Broncos, will their run defense be better? I was under the assumption they’d be a lot better with Purcell returning as well as Miller/Chubb. ESPN has them as a prime matchup for the Giants run blocking vs their run defense. Curious if there is any insight bc I do have interest in Barkley if he plays. He would be low owned and he can take one to the house any minute. Rhodes is also out for the Colts. Metcalf should be able to have a big day. I actually like that game to stack a lot. If the Colts get behind you can stack Wentz with Hines/Campbell/Pittman and it is super cheap and a great matchup.

  • marker0357

    Hounds Game Theory Analysis

    LAC-WAS: Lots of Gibson and a few long ones Fitz-McLaurin. Run it back with Keenan. LAC moves the ball with dinks and dunks but struggles to score. Ekler will satisfy with rush + rec activity but nothing to get excited about. WAS in a close, low scoring affair.
    PHI-ATL: Shootout. Hurts rushing + deep ball vs. Ryan-Ridley-Pitts. I like Ryan to get the bonus on DK but Hurts ability to score with his legs makes for a nice alternative. Hurts may get the rush bonus to offset Ryan. Quez/Ward split is intriguing. Ward may get the snaps but Quez may outscore him. Hmmm.
    JAX-HOU: Probably a good deal of James Robinson and dump-offs to Shenault. JAX wins this game on TO’s. I question Chark’s return from injury. Will it impact his ability to catch the ball, especially on short crossing routes?
    MIA-NE: Ho hum, boring game. Jones will manage the game, Harris running the ball, TE passing, and solid Def. NE gets at least 1 INT.
    SF-DET: SF run game and DET TO’s. SF covers but that is all. I like Deebo/Aiyuk both but I’m not sure that they’ll really need their scoring, so that may inhibit their impact.
    ARI-TEN: Shootout. I think TEN falls behind early and Henry becomes less relevant. This looks like Murray’s legs + DHop + RMoore vs Tanny-AJB. As long as ARI takes care of the ball, I believe they win in a high scoring game.
    Pitt-BUF: Ben dink & dunk with lots of Najae. BUF all about Allen. BUF wins going away.
    NYJ-CAR: CAR lock with CMAC + game management by Sam. This won’t be the game that CAR needs Sam to shine but there will be a few this year.
    SEA-IND: Game management by IND. Run the ball, get ahead and stay ahead. IND sacks and TO’s win this game. IND TE’s will play a major role. If IND runs the ball alot, Doyle will pass block. If they are forced to pass alot, Allie-Cox may play a bigger role. Don’t sleep on Strachan if Indy falls behind and Paschal is ineffective.
    MIN-CIN: I think both teams move the ball via the run. I think we’ll also see more Mixon receipts than we’re used to seeing with Gio moving on. Clock will drain. This one could go either way. In the end, Kirk and play-action will prevail. Possibly a sneaky game stack. Neither defense is strong. It just depends if one gets out in front of the other by more than 1 score.
    GB-NO: AR-Davante all day long. It’s really a matter of converting those receptions into scores. NO will stifle the run. Kamara is helped by Winston at QB. I am worried about the T. Hill vulture near the GL though. Payton just can’t help himself.This one could go either way. Winston probably connects on 1 or 2 deep ones to Callaway and uses Lil’Jordan with his length. Could this one be decided on special teams with a D. Harris return?
    DEN-NYG: DEN will turn NY over. Probably a split between Gordon and Williams running the ball, mixing in some passes to Jeudy primarily. DEN looks good on the road here.
    CLE-KC: I’m taking the under here. CLE DEF won’t get blown out IMO. CLE shortens the game with the run. In the end, KC will still prevail with enough Mahomes-Kelce-HIll. I think a flyer on Hardman may offer some 1-off upside. Chubb/Hunt will both have decent games.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    I slapped the shit out of the guy who stole Julio from me this week in our matchup, with a Dak Cooper stack and Antonio Brown on flex to replace Jones. He has Evans and Zeke. Boy that feels good. And boy that Dak Cooper stack and A Brown are suuuupppper value in your season long drafts.

  • thedkexperience

    It’s not relevant to Week 1 any longer but La’el Collins just caught a 5 game suspension for illegal substances.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @thedkexperience said...

    If the ATL D is chalk then I’ve somehow morphed from an idiot who yells at clouds to a fantasy expert myself.

    According to ETR’s projections, the ATL D will be the highest owned player at any position

    ATL D 36.3%, Callaway 27.6 and C-Mac at 26 round out the top 3

    edit; on DK

  • timusbr

    @marker0357 said...

    Hounds Game Theory Analysis

    I do this type of analysis for making my selections quicker and building LU’s

    did it for best ball, but waiting…..Sat aft and evening on my last 2 slates all day and early. then final editing on active list.
    but nobody wants to hear me critic where i believe different. and its fun to get an idea on your thoughts on everything in 1 place.

  • marker0357

    @timusbr said...

    I do this type of analysis for making my selections quicker and building LU’s

    did it for best ball, but waiting…..Sat aft and evening on my last 2 slates all day and early. then final editing on active list.
    but nobody wants to hear me critic where i believe different. and its fun to get an idea on your thoughts on everything in 1 place.

    Yeah, I try to do it before I do a final set of my lineups. I like to try and find a few games that I can stack.

    I usually start way too early on a list of who I like and put them into dummy lineups to hold the contests I like, then put together a game script based upon tendencies and where I believe game totals will fall, then use WR-CB matchup analysis as best I can, then adjust lineups for matchups and injuries. I usually only consider % used as a tiebreaker to avoid dupes. I haven’t won a milly so it must not be the winning formula but I feel good about the process and it’s fun.

  • Getty33

    @marker0357 said...

    JAX-HOU: Probably a good deal of James Robinson and dump-offs to Shenault. JAX wins this game on TO’s. I question Chark’s return from injury. Will it impact his ability to catch the ball, especially on short crossing routes?

    Houston should be on under the total alert all year. Jax will become more explosive as the season goes on but I don’t see it in week 1 either. Other than a low owned flyer on Robinson, I’d steer clear of this game as well. Under 45 is a solid bet.

  • 33BeRad

    Has their projected ownership been pretty good?
    Good luck to junior Hoods, seen the championship is starting

  • kdsdawg

    @Getty33 said...

    a low owned flyer on Robinson,

    I don’t think he will be low owned

  • infantryboys

    @thedkexperience said...

    Am I alone in not really caring about points given up by a defense? Like I’m not gonna put someone in there that is gonna give up a 40 burger but I’m also not expecting any defense to actually shut anyone down. I’m just mining for a random return TD personally and while I’m not using Houston at the moment every young QB who hasn’t proven it yet in the NFL is a worthy DFS defense target as far as I’m concerned.

    100% It’s rare a team is held to fewer than 10 points, so that’s not getting your defense there. Potential sacks and turnovers are what I try to identify.

  • timusbr

    @marker0357 said...

    LAC-WAS:

    LAC-WAS: lots of Gibson and Fitzmagic must throw. I think better and more than you predict…
    but same result Was (+1) outright

    PHI-ATL: I dont see PHI upside. watching the injury report. Ryan has less weapons than last year but for some reason I have faith this week in the running game. Atl – 3.5

    JAX-HOU: Hou has a decent run game but what will they do if they get behind. Nobody has a good reason to take Jax. I see a lot of upside to them, I am willing to go with the rookie QB and HC and of course Houstons non quantifiable front office/Team troubles. Jax -3

    MIA-NE: not much to say here..coaches know each other, know each team, if I had too…. Under 43.5

    SF-DET: I think both teams are less than a year ago and both teams heading for conference cellar. (keep in mind I have no evaluation on defenses) NO Bets

    ARI-TEN: I think Ari improved in a lot of areas WR RB and def. earlier this week it seemed Ten had too many issues on Off line and specific to Center. I will take Ari +3 on that.

    Pitt-BUF: Buf is my team to roll thru AFC. Allen is the man. Pit’s chances ride on Big Bens elbow, end of last year he couldnt throw 15 yards downfield it was ridiculously bad. Pre-season he had some zip, He could win…No Bet

    NYJ-CAR: Cmac and revenge game for Darnold, plus think Jets SUCK Car -5

    SEA-IND: Ind with a banged up WR. tough game I am staying away from NO BET

    MIN-CIN: I think Min should roll in this one. Min is same offense and Cin is maybe less than last year. Which Cousins shows up? pass on road game….NO BET

    GB-NO: All in on GB -4 besides the obvious, I think Randall Cobb is exactly what Rogers needed, we will be talking about NFC Championship game in GB against TB. GB -4

    DEN-NYG too many question marks on Den. WR core is way less than. Giants at home for me to make the difference. NYG +2.5

    CLE-KC: KC is talented, they will be good. I also think the best of times will rapidly move away. The WR are not as good (last years 2nd and 3rd stringers move up to starting and backup), the running game is suspect. Clevland is scrappy and have things to prove and have another year under their belt. Its time for them. MY UPSET SPECIAL CLE +6 and outright

    CHI-LAR: Rams, Stafford knows the Defense better than the coaching staff for the Bears….. but wont bet on it

    Bal-LV: leaning to LV +4.5

  • noddy

    I keep putting Darnold in lineups. God help me!

  • BIF

    @33BeRad said...

    Has their projected ownership been pretty good?
    Good luck to junior Hoods, seen the championship is starting

    Saw he got caught with the late JD Martinez scratch so was short handed on 1 of his 2 lineups.

  • siddom

    chase edmonds for the savings and lower ownership or chris carson with the higher projection and higher ownership? dk gpp

  • Smallchimp

    @siddom said...

    chase edmonds for the savings and lower ownership or chris carson with the higher projection and higher ownership? dk gpp

    For what it’s worth, PFF has Carson projected as RB15 (high of 10) while Edmonds is RB23 (high of 21). The Fantasy Footballers have Carson as RB 18 (high of 13) and Edmonds as RB27 (high of 24). It doesn’t seem like there’s a major difference in OL vs DL matchup, so I’m thinking that Carson’s probably the better option per consensus

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    What’s up boys! Anyone miss me?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E3U_KXgeHbgeH6OyK47K3v5SUX_-QNQFzrg54w7Fr00/edit?usp=sharing

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    Initial thoughts (will have more tomorrow):

    Sooooo much leverage. Lot of similar projections at much lower ownership that I fully intend to go after.

  • fitz2k2

    @thehazyone said...

    What’s up boys! Anyone miss me?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E3U_KXgeHbgeH6OyK47K3v5SUX_-QNQFzrg54w7Fr00/edit?usp=sharing

    You are the mvp!!!!!

  • superjon

    Just finished my 1st look over, and narrowed my player pool down to 106

    QBs

    Mahomes
    Murray
    Allen
    Rodgers
    Wilson
    Tannehill
    Hurts
    Ryan

  • theIrrigator

    • 441

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #34

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @thehazyone said...

    What’s up boys! Anyone miss me?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E3U_KXgeHbgeH6OyK47K3v5SUX_-QNQFzrg54w7Fr00/edit?usp=sharing

    MVP! MVP!

  • marker0357

    @thehazyone said...

    What’s up boys! Anyone miss me?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E3U_KXgeHbgeH6OyK47K3v5SUX_-QNQFzrg54w7Fr00/edit?usp=sharing

    Good Luck this year Hazy! This is always a great tool.

    First look, Chubb and Taylor look interesting. Love Jeudy, Auyuk, Moore, and Allen. Pitts is crazy high, I may need to rethink my exposure to him.

  • BIF

    @thehazyone said...

    What’s up boys! Anyone miss me?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E3U_KXgeHbgeH6OyK47K3v5SUX_-QNQFzrg54w7Fr00/edit?usp=sharing

    Best of luck this season my friend – it’s looking like our paths will cross again in January but I think the game is in Tampa this time…

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