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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/10
    8:30pm EST: Pittsburgh at New England(-3) —- 48.5 (o/u)

    Sunday, 9/13
    1:00pm EST: Green Bay(-6.5) at Chicago —- 50.5 (o/u)
    1:00pm EST: Kansas City at Houston(-1) —- 41 (o/u)
    1:00pm EST: Cleveland at NY Jets(-3) —- 40.5 (o/u)
    1:00pm EST: Indianapolis(-2.5) at Buffalo —- 46.5 (o/u)
    1:00pm EST: Miami(-3) at Washington —- 43.5 (o/u)
    1:00pm EST: Carolina(-3) at Jacksonville —- 41 (o/u)
    1:00pm EST: Seattle(-3.5) at St. Louis —- 43 (o/u)
    4:05pm EST: New Orleans at Arizona(-2.5) —- 37 (o/u)
    4:05pm EST: Detroit at San Diego(-2.5) —- 46 (o/u)
    4:25pm EST: Tennessee at Tampa Bay(-3) —- 42 (o/u)
    4:25pm EST: Cincinnati(-3.5) at Oakland —- 44 (o/u)
    4:25pm EST: Baltimore at Denver(-4) —- 51 (o/u)
    8:30pm EST: NY Giants at Dallas(-5) —- 51.5 (o/u)

    Monday, 9/14
    7:10pm EST: Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta —- 53.5 (o/u)
    10:20pm EST: Minnesota(-1) at San Francisco —- 41.5 (o/u)

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • Posterizes

    @bucherpsu08 said...

    Hard to say. My guess would be in the 140 – 150 range.

    I can see that as well. The highest salary WR have all laid eggs this weekend maybe Julio can meet value or at least get close.

  • 63TMB

    @ChoppoDong said...

    I’m laughing that AJ, Dez, ODB, DThom, and Megatron all failed to double value. Most failed to match value. Toss that in with some games projected to be shootouts that weren’t, STL v SEA scored 65, and every TE on the planet seemingly having multi-TD upside and all I can do is giggle at the world that is DFS.

    On draft kings is it 2x or 3x to hit value?

  • JdotBrone

    The FD Sunday Milly cutoff is 96 right now which is insane. Im guessing the cash line will be around 125 though with all the big guns that have yet to play.

  • dejohnc

    Who does everyone like for Monday Night games tonight? Usually I avoid these, but with 2 games, it might be interesting. I could make a case for owning almost exclusive early game matchups. Discuss.

  • mojomover

    I was thinking 115-120 for FD. The reason for the slightly lower cash line is because of the overlay no? we only had 170k entries, and ~46k cash which is 27% cash rate. Double ups have cash rates of 40%…and throw in the crappy line-ups that tend to happen in these massive double ups and its reasonable.

  • Bigbluecrew

    I usually avoid them also, but after the disaster I had over the weekend and given the low price of Bradford I had no choice.

    I’m going with Bradford/Murray/Matthews and the Minn WR’s

  • dejohnc

    I was thinking Ryan, Murray Julio, and fill in with Mathews and Johnson. the thing i hate about these though is that all lineups are very similar and there isn’t a way to stand out from the pack that appeals to me.

  • Capone1233

    You can roster bruce ellington, jarius wright, reggie bush, mycole pruitt to stand out of the pack. may not get you a win, but if you want to throw a dart those are your best bet.

  • Capone1233

    And Huff, Riley Cooper from Eagles..probably low owned.

  • tmarohl

    @mojomover said...

    I was thinking 115-120 for FD. The reason for the slightly lower cash line is because of the overlay no? we only had 170k entries, and ~46k cash which is 27% cash rate. Double ups have cash rates of 40%…and throw in the crappy line-ups that tend to happen in these massive double ups and its reasonable.

    I’m sitting at 90.2 with Bradford, Jordan Mathews and Julio Jones yet to go. I’m hoping you are right with your cash line projection as I would think this should get to that level quite easily and hopefully go much higher.

  • deerosa

    Which TE and DEF should I go with ?

    Can’t pull the trigger on this one and its been changing for the past hour.

    Also Have Sproles locked in for tonite.

  • Capone1233

    @deerosa said...

    Which TE and DEF should I go with ?

    Can’t pull the trigger on this one and its been changing for the past hour.

    Also Have Sproles locked in for tonite.

    Rudolph

  • SkeletonCrew13

    Anyone taking a punt at the Monday night only?

    Basically its whether Hankerson or Charles Johnson is the stud.

  • JSteele

    Weems is going to be returning kicks I read somewhere for Atl. He’s min priced.

    Also Vernon Davis anyone?

  • JSteele

    Also anyone notice RayOfHope needs 20 points or so from his flex today to win the 2 million. This guy is crazy

  • marcuseightyfive

    @JSteele said...

    Also anyone notice RayOfHope needs 20 points or so from his flex today to win the 2 million. This guy is crazy

    Yes…with his savings with Woodhead and Johnson…he could have Julio.

  • Cityworkout

    For NFL cash games, even if you are profitable unless you play a lot you won’t really get anywhere. The only alternative is if you are crushing the cash games like winning often. Even then you have to have volume.

    You basically have to win a GPP to move up in stakes. The week wait even if you are profitable makes it tough as well because you have to wait a week if you lose.

  • ohiofox

    I had 7 milly entries all from $.25 baseball sats and my current best has me in 178th place, but I know I’ll most likely get passed up by a bunch.

    I need some help with another tourney where I’m in 3rd with a Flex going tonight ($4900 left DK). I need 15 points to get to first and then hope noboby can jump ahead. Here’s my options:

    Charles Johnson
    Tevin Coleman
    Devonta Freeman (hammy and back up to Tevin so doubt it’s an option)
    Reggie Bush
    Ryan Matthews
    Zach Ertz (groin?)
    Kyle Rudolph
    Darren Sproles

    I’m looking for as many opinions as possible to help make a decision I can live with regardless of outcome. Thanks

  • lovestarsz

    I’m going with Bush, Sproles, or Rudolph for my flex’s. I like Bush/Sproles the most

  • bucherpsu08

    Tevin Coleman should see the most touches out of that group so that’s who I would play.

  • ChoppoDong

    @63TMB said...

    On draft kings is it 2x or 3x to hit value?

    Can’t speak to DK. I’m only an FD guy at the moment. 60k cap means 60 pts brings full value at 1pt/1000. 120 would be 2x and 180 would be 3x. Most talk about 2x cashing and 3x winning, and I imagine this is small to medium tourneys like Snaps and Dives. I’m seeing cash line at about 110ish in Dives right now and about 160-200 in the lead, depending on the tourney. For 50/50s, I’m seeing a cash line at about 99….so a bit lower. H2H varies quite a bit so I look for the 50/50 cash line as a gauge.

    I’m sure the line will move a bit higher after tonight, but it seems about right. 120 to cash and 180 gives a shot at winning. Hence, gunning for 2x and 3x value across your lineup. And, WR1s having horrid weekends is likely suppressing money lines a bit. But, TEs don’t go off across the board like this week, usually, either. It likely balances.

  • ohiofox

    @bucherpsu08 said...

    Tevin Coleman should see the most touches out of that group so that’s who I would play.

    That is my initial thought too. Hopefully he can get 3-5 check down receptions and have a chance in space.

  • dejohnc

    Anyone else getting down on these tonight? IMO, it’s hard to stand out with such a small player base.

  • ohiofox

    @dejohnc said...

    Anyone else getting down on these tonight? IMO, it’s hard to stand out with such a small player base.

    I’ve got 2-3 lineups just under 100 points with 3 to play tonight. I might take a flyer on one and throw in a Riley Cooper and hope for a 2TD game.

  • ChoppoDong

    @Sports312 said...

    For NFL cash games, even if you are profitable unless you play a lot you won’t really get anywhere. The only alternative is if you are crushing the cash games like winning often. Even then you have to have volume.

    You basically have to win a GPP to move up in stakes. The week wait even if you are profitable makes it tough as well because you have to wait a week if you lose.

    I think most are using Cash Games to offset volume tourney entries not to build a bankroll. I know I’m a 5:1 guy in terms of Cash:Tourney per lineup. I like playing cash games. They speak to my personality better in terms of what tends to appeal to me in players…..you could call it risk aversion. I’m just not a boom/bust type guy all that often. But, again, you just never know when any individual lineup goes nuts for 200 pts. I’ve seen it in my own lineups more than once…..but not often.

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