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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, November 10th
    8:25 PM EST : Cleveland ( 10.5 ) at Baltimore ( -10.5 ) —- T: 45.5

    Sunday, November 13th
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 1.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -1.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 1 ) at Philadelphia ( -1 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3 ) at Carolina ( -3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -2.5 ) at Tennessee ( 2.5 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at Washington ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Los Angeles ( 2.5 ) at NY Jets ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 1 ) at New Orleans ( -1 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -1 ) at Jacksonville ( 1 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 3.5 ) at San Diego ( -3.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 2.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -2.5 ) —- T: 51
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 13 ) at Arizona ( -13 ) —- T: 48
    8:30 PM EST : Seattle ( 7 ) at New England ( -7 ) —- T: —

    Monday, November 14th
    8:30 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 2.5 ) at NY Giants ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • Dadeano860

    @ASitar said...

    With Reed out, Davis may be a good TE.

    Reed isn’t out. But speaking of the TE, I didn’t even think of Kendricks until now. He’s been getting a ton of targets and is min priced on FD. He and Ertz are mispriced. Jets are bad vs TEs too.

  • ASitar

    I’m thinking DJax. NM.

  • bhodgman

    Last week I got nervous going into lock that the Cowboys would get up too much early and Zeke wouldn’t see enough carries in the second half to hit value… I nonetheless stuck with him at 50%+ exposure, and it crushed me…

    Now starting to have same worries about DJ here…

    Plus, there are numerous solid, sneaky value plays out there with other home RBs – like JStew, Ivory, Ingram, and/or Sproles… also beginning to think they, as well as Le’veon, MG3, and maybe even Demarco Murray, are all better risk/reward than DJ given his $8.4k salary on DK…

    Currently have DJ at 50% exposure for my GPPs… opinions on odds of DJ hitting 3-4X+ for DK GPPs?

  • fpm2015

    @bhodgman said...

    Last week I got nervous going into lock that the Cowboys would get up too much early and Zeke wouldn’t see enough carries in the second half to hit value… I nonetheless stuck with him at 50%+ exposure, and it crushed me…

    Now starting to have same worries about DJ here…

    Plus, there are numerous solid, sneaky value plays out there with other home RBs – like JStew, Ivory, Ingram, and/or Sproles… also beginning to think they, as well as Le’veon, MG3, and maybe even Demarco Murray, are all better risk/reward than DJ given his $8.4k salary on DK…

    Currently have DJ at 50% exposure for my GPPs… opinions on odds of DJ hitting 3-4X+ for DK GPPs?

    do you think DJ can get 26-30pts? if not a fade is a good idea Ivory has a fumble in the past 4 games ingram is in a commitee melvin and ajai could easily hit value at a 7k salary something to think about

  • gillio

    Leveon over DJ this weekend. If he can match him or even do a little worse I have a huge advantage

  • krighton

    I find I keep making minimum money but can’t break into the mid range money…always 1 or 2 guys away..i guess that’s where the luck/skill/gamble comes in. I do ok in cash but cash is boring and would like to hit a gpp. Any keys to breaking out from the pack.

  • Earwig

    • Ranked #82

      RG Tiered Ranking

    How worried should I be that Melvin and ajaj cap each others ceiling from both teams going run heavy?

  • CleverGroom

    @Serpico said...

    Perhaps I’m better off paying up at RB and going lower at WR? Thanks guys.

    I would. The thing about Sproles is that he doesn’t get goal line work. Virtually all of Mathews’s snaps and carries are RZ work at this point. If you pick Sproles over a guy who scores a TD, and Sproles doesn’t, that’s 12 receptions you’re going to need to make up the difference, or some combination of catches and yardage beyond what the other guy did.

    TDs are crucial on FD. I’d say they’re even more important at RB, because we often have an unusually good idea of whether or not a RB will get the work inside the 10. Yes, we harangued MG3 for falling into the end zone to a flukey degree, but what drove that trend more than anything else was that he’s the guy. That’s what you pay up for on FD. Sproles doesn’t have it.

    You may know all of that, of course. Just seemed like a teachable moment for anybody who isn’t thinking in those terms.

    Gun to my head, supposing I had to pay down for a RB on FD, I’d consider Sproles, Chris Ivory, DuJuan Harris (if Hyde is out or limited), C.J. Prosise, Kapri Bibbs, and Andre Ellington. I don’t think any of them are ideal for cash.

  • CleverGroom

    @Earwig said...

    How worried should I be that Melvin and ajaj cap each others ceiling from both teams going run heavy?

    MG3 averages 5.9 yards per touch and 30.33 touches per game over his last three starts. Ajayi averages 6.74 yards per touch and 27.33 touches per game over his last three starts. These guys are playing pretty efficient. Even if they got just 75% of their normal volume of touches, we could pencil in MG3 for +/- 134 yards and Ajayi for +/- 138 yards.

    That probably won’t happen, though. Miami plays slow, SD plays fairly fast. JMtoWin projects them each running slightly more plays than usual for their offenses, and one of the greatest virtues of both players is that they’ll get touches regardless of game script.

  • mackie64

    To gronk or not to gronk? Also would you go sproles or white?

  • CleverGroom

    @Dadeano860 said...

    At TE, top guys have tough matchups. I don’t ever like to play Kelce although he probably has one more of his huge games in him, I’m not chasing it. Zach Miller vs Ertz is a good debate, I don’t understand why FD has Ertz at only $4600. Ertz looked great last week vs Giants and targets were up but Miller’s usage is consistently high. My initial lean was Miller but for cash I am now leaning Ertz. Keep in mind I am on the fence on Jeffrey and won’t have 2 Bears in my cash lineup

    Agreed that Ertz is just too cheap on FD. Dude’s coming off his best game of the season, has a dreamy matchup, a 1st or 2nd tier implied total, and has been declared not just a squeaky wheel, but a red zone squeaky wheel by the coaching staff. He’s in my FD cash lineup for now.

    If I dropped Ertz, it’d probably be because I really needed the $100 I could free up by swapping to Lance Kendricks. I don’t think that Miller’s ceiling is $800 higher than Ertz, or that his floor is $900 higher than Kendricks.

  • CleverGroom

    @Dadeano860 said...

    Ebron did well against the Vikings last week, if I’m paying up its for Reed, Chiefs are great vs TE, enough to downgrade Olsen for me.

    Gronk is clearly the pay-up option at TE for me. Maybe I don’t get any points for creativity, but Captain Munnerlyn is out and Eric Kendricks is in for Minnesota. That’s a downgrade for Reed and an upgrade for Crowder. I also agree that Greg’s out of play against KC.

  • Mschroeder0401

    How does Philly do against TEs? No Austin Hooper talk.

  • CleverGroom

    @ASitar said...

    I know he’s been talked about a little but but JJ Nelson is throwing 20 points up this weekend. At his price he’s automatic for me in 90% of my LUs.

    I’m concerned about J.J. Nelson. Three main reasons.

    First, game script. Sure, Arians may be willing to run up the score, but the plain truth is that running DJ every play is probably the best way to do that against SF. Maybe it’s not best for DJ, but he was willing to give the dude over 40 touches against Seattle. Each time that Carson drops back to pass, he’s dealing with a wildly ineffective line, and it shows. Carson doesn’t trust them. He shouldn’t. Moreover, he’s arguably looked shaky as a passer, and you’re giving more opportunities for turnovers when you start rolling the dice on pass protection and airing out the ball.

    Second, John Brown may be all the way back. If he winds up spending more time with Reaser than J.J. does, it could easily become the John Brown show when they’re passing deep. Smoke deserves respect.

    Third, J.J. just doesn’t profile like the WRs who’ve been beating the 49ers. He’s 5’ 10”, 156 lbs. Where SF’s undersized corners have been giving up scores week after week after week is to big, physical receivers. That is to say, Larry Fitzgerald. We saw the same thing the last time these teams played, when Larry scored twice for 26.1 DK points, and DJ trucked them for two scores and 36.5 DK points. Things won’t necessarily be any different just because Carson’s playing.

    This game may look like a walk in the park for the Cardinals, but let’s not forget that it’s a must-win for them. Every game is a must-win at this point in their season. If they want to dig themselves out of their hole, they can’t afford to be taken advantage of. I’d want to trust my stars if I was Arians. I’m not Arians, so who the hell knows, but I do think there’s reasons to worry about J.J. Nelson.

  • CleverGroom

    @Mschroeder0401 said...

    How does Philly do against TEs? No Austin Hooper talk.

    Very well. They allow 28.6 yards and 0.3 TDs per game to opposing tight ends.

    There shouldn’t be Austin Hooper talk. Play Ertz, Kendricks, Miller, or Fleener instead.

  • cmt56ss

    @CleverGroom said...

    I’m concerned about J.J. Nelson. Three main reasons.

    Okay Mr. Guru, who is your top FLEX pivot off JJ Nelson based on your analysis here? Does Darren Sproles profile as an upgrade over JJ, or perhaps Delanie Walker?

  • CleverGroom

    @bhodgman said...

    Last week I got nervous going into lock that the Cowboys would get up too much early and Zeke wouldn’t see enough carries in the second half to hit value… I nonetheless stuck with him at 50%+ exposure, and it crushed me…

    Now starting to have same worries about DJ here…

    Arians has shown an almost disturbing propensity to ride DJ all the way into the 4th quarter. Zeke’s the complete opposite. All year long, Jason Garrett has spelled him with Alf Morris every other drive or so, and he pulls him early if he can.

    I do think that DJ could get shut down earlier here, especially if it’s occurred to Arians that maybe risking the health of his best player isn’t great, past a point. Things change in the NFL.

    Even so, Mark Ingram just dropped 34.1 DK points on the 49ers with 17 touches. Let me tell you two things about David Johnson: 1) He’s better than Mark Ingram. 2) He’ll touch the ball more than 17 times in this game.

    I think DJ can easily hit 3-4x on DK. The only reason he shouldn’t is if there’s a statistically improbable series of TD vultures (my money would be on Larry Fitzgerald here), or he gets injured. In the first case, that’s kinda just how it goes. He’d probably be fine anyway. The 49ers are giving up historic rush yardage to opposing teams, and DJ’s always good for some PPR action too.

    If it’s the second case, and DJ comes up lame, Andre Ellington leverage plays could win tournaments. The earlier DJ leaves, the stronger that possibility becomes. I’d mix an Ellington or two in with your cheap backs if you decide to go that route and be underweight on the chalk king.

  • Dr_Gonzo

    And I’ve found myself building Keenum/Britt stacks again…

  • Rachelynn51912

    Which core is better for DK cash…. Z Miller/J Matthews – (already have Alshon in)—- OR .. Kendricks/Then pick the other….D Thomas, Diggs, or Montgomery
    sorry if thats confusin

  • mh8235

    I agree…DJ will get pulled earlier than Elliott did last week if it’s the blowout vegas suggests…I think he’ll end up returning fair value around low-mid 20s

  • CleverGroom

    @cmt56ss said...

    Okay Mr. Guru, who is your top FLEX pivot off JJ Nelson based on your analysis here? Does Darren Sproles profile as an upgrade over JJ, or perhaps Delanie Walker?

    I like Sproles on DK. He may not get goal line looks, but he’s still a big play threat, and he could run up a great score on ATL in full PPR. Ivory, Prosise, and White are other RBs who could be in play around this price point. They’re all likely to function as the lead backs in their offenses this week, even though Prosise and White should get much of their work through the air.

    My favorite dollar for dollar, position for position pivot would be Rishard Matthews, but chances are he’s already in your lineups. Delanie Walker is interesting too; GB isn’t great against the TE and they’re giving up over 30 points per game with Clay Matthews out. You can even go Kendall Wright if you want to leverage Rishard. I love me some Titans this week.

    Sammie Coates exists…maybe. There’s actually been rumblings that he’s losing work to Cobi Hamilton this week, so I’d rather pay down slightly with an Eli Rogers pivot. Rogers looked good against Baltimore and went 6-103-0 (19.3 DK points, or 6x).

    Tyreek Hill has a great matchup against the CAR secondary. Your risk there is that Alex Smith is back under center, having never suffered a concussion. Certainly not two concussions. No concussions to see here. Move along. Smith could underwhelm us once again, but Tyreek’s more muscular and just as fast as J.J. Nelson in this spot two weeks ago.

    Another cheaper guy is Dontrell Inman. Inman’s stock would go up if there’s issues with the Gazelle or Henry. As it is, I think he has a decent floor in PPR, but his ceiling probably depends on injuries opening up his workload. More of a cash play for me, at best.

    Finally, Bryce Treggs is Philadelphia’s new go route runner. He saw more work with Huff hitting the bricks, gets a great matchup against ATL without Trufant, and put up 8.9 DK points with 2-69-0 off just 4 targets last week. Could blow up on a couple big plays at stone minimum salary.

  • CleverGroom

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    And I’ve found myself building Keenum/Britt stacks again…

    Oh Doctor Gonzo, I didn’t know you were one of those mad scientists. Don’t attack the lowest O/U we’ve seen in weeks (perhaps all season).

  • CleverGroom

    @Rachelynn51912 said...

    Which core is better for DK cash…. Z Miller/J Matthews – (already have Alshon in)—- OR .. Kendricks/Then pick the other….D Thomas, Diggs, or Montgomery
    sorry if thats confusin

    The more I think about JMatt, the more I like him. He’s my preference over DT, Diggs, or Ty.

    I think Alshon/Matthews/Miller is a good start in cash. I wouldn’t want to stack Miller and Alshon in GPPs because I don’t think the Bears have that many TDs in them, but by stacking them in cash, you increase your chances of capturing what passing TDs they do produce.

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @CleverGroom said...

    Oh Doctor Gonzo, I didn’t know you were one of those mad scientists. Don’t attack the lowest O/U we’ve seen in weeks (perhaps all season).

    Hey now, mad enough to hit it a few weeks ago against Detroit. I don’t think the Rams will be able to run the ball against that jets defense. I do think they can both hit value in this game, with their low price tags. I’m not going to have a ton of them, but will have a few lineups in GPP’s.

  • CleverGroom

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    Hey now, mad enough to hit it a few weeks ago against Detroit. I don’t think the Rams will be able to run the ball against that jets defense. I do think they can both hit value in this game, with their low price tags. I’m not going to have a ton of them, but will have a few lineups in GPP’s.

    Oh Doctor Gonzo, you’ve gone mad! Mad, I tell you!

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