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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/9
    8:25 PM EST : Seattle ( -5.5 ) at Arizona ( 5.5 ) —- T: 42

    Sunday, 11/12
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -4.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 0 ) at Tampa Bay ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 5.5 ) at Tennessee ( -5.5 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 9.5 ) at Detroit ( -9.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2 ) at Washington ( 2 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( -2 ) at Buffalo ( 2 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -10.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 10.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Houston ( 11.5 ) at LA Rams ( -11.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 3.5 ) at Atlanta ( -3.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 2.5 ) at San Francisco ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42
    8:30 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Denver ( 7.5 ) —- T: 46

    Monday, 11/13
    8:30 PM EST : Miami ( 8 ) at Carolina ( -8 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • MrPerfekt7

    Well damn Zeke.

  • MattyK1981

    A backup QB / marginal WR3 / solid TE stack against a Jets D that just shut down a much better team in the Bills last week …. I don’t see the stack being worthwhile perhaps maybe Brate or Humphries alone, perhaps. I think Humphries disappoints this weekend and burns a lot of chalk dollars with him, so I will stay away TYVM. In scenarios like this I like to play a fun game. I put Fitzpatrick into a lineup and then pause for a second and think to myself “of all the QBs I could play, I am picking this guy over all the rest because….?”

    And there better be a hell of a lot more in the plus side of the column than simply price and hope.

  • MattyK1981

    @Messiah717 said...

    With Elliot out do we love Dak all by himself even more in Atlanta?

    Fire up the Beasus-mobile!

  • htaneers

    im getting similar floor/ceil/avg projections for Hopkins+Tate vs AJG+Thielen. Latter seemed better to me off the top of my head, but I can’t justify why its much better. Thielen has more volume and Tate has more ceiling (projected); Hopkins has more volume and AJG has more ceiling; so each play has solid floor+ceil in it…

  • Messiah717

    @elementasrat said...

    Is this clown show finally over? Zeke suspended?

    It appears it’s the end of the line as the emergency injunction was denied.

  • themouth1888

    Why did I sort my line ups so early?

    Not high on Gurlay so Christ knows how I’ll move my team around now Zekes out

  • deactivated204643

    At least we know on Thursday. Everything I’d read and listened to said a decision wouldn’t be handed down before next week due to Veterens Day tomorrow.

  • htaneers

    Hopkins+Tate vs AJG+Thielen???
    http://www.strawpoll.me/14364878

  • mike42

    @Lp33 said...

    I wanna fade AP but what if he does get 20 carries and td. Someone help

    Fade AP with 100% confidence. Old RB who got 100 carries last week, on a short week, does not catch passes, behind a crappy o-line facing a pissed off and good Sea D. Honestly, rostering him has not crossed my mind for the full slate, just a bad play.

  • KindGuy

    Alfred Morris gonna win me a GPP.

  • deactivated204643

    @Messiah717 said...

    With Elliot out do we love Dak all by himself even more in Atlanta?

    I wasn’t going to post this because of how wrong my thoughts can be but even before the Zeke decision came down I was thinking ATL could roll on Dallas. What worries me most is Julio’s health. Last week they seemed to have a logical game plan for him (for the first time this year) and Ryan actually looked decent. Please note, I’ve never been a big fan of Ryan. I was one of those who said he’d regress this year and he has but I’m now wondering if there might be a bounce back? This is ATL first home game in nearly a month. I was thinking Ryan may go underowned but last night I heard a podcast that said he’d be the highest owned QB on FD, they didn’t mention DK ownership. I’m befuddled over this game and I wish we knew more about Julio and his “lower leg” injury.

  • WrathofKhaaan

    @33BeRad said...

    Yeah, I am going to have to revisit that one. Targets will be there, and it could be a garbage time TD was my thinking. But I did see that hammy injury pop up. Do you think Hooper is just a cash game play or do you think he could be gpp viable? I could see him as a cash play more. I do like Sanu in that game as well. Was just playing around putting him in some lineups that I need savings. Trying to get Gronk, Bell and another stud either at rb or wr causes lack of money and I don’t want to be all in on Humphries. Brice Butler could be a thing if Dez is out, maybe?

    I think Hooper could be a good play for both cash and GPP as Dallas is 26th DVOA vs. TE’s and ATL has the 4th highest implied team total, plus there are a lot of other options to keep ownership lower: Gronk, Engram, Brate, Rudolph, Kroft. I also like Sanu out of the slot (27th DVOA), especially if Julio is limited at all. I think Beasley is your best bet for a big game at WR on the other side, ATL is 32nd in DVOA vs. the slot. He will likely have higher ownership due to point chase but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good play.

  • gillio

    @elementasrat said...

    Alfred Morris gonna win me a GPP.

    Nope. Dak.

  • htaneers

    My take: play Th-M this week, fade all games. yes, even Baldwin, Landry, McC, ARZ, Gronk, and DT.
    maybe play naked Cam if anything but I’d fade that too and some of the above are better plays lol.

    but i think there are less popular plays at almost all of the situations that the above are in, that have equal floor with lower ownership and more upside.
    there are some value plays in these games, particularly ARIvsSEA, but theres so much value in the main slate anyway.

  • themouth1888

    Dak/Williams/Witten stack for me now along with Freeman and Sanu (Jones if you can afford him)

  • WrathofKhaaan

    @thehazyone said...

    I got to write some NFL analysis for a change. Go check it out guys when you have a moment. Any ideas for future “infograph” articles, I’d love to hear – we’re probably going to make this a weekly column.

    https://rotogrinders.com/articles/nfl-defense-by-pass-direction-week-10-2175656

    Great insight, thank you!

  • mike42

    @bluebroker said...

    With Elliot out do we love Dak all by himself even more in Atlanta?

    It’s been Dak’s team all year, he’s been playing like a top 5-10 QB since the season started. It’s been foolish to bet against him and I would like a little bit if I knew DEZ was going to be all good. Otherwise, not much of a WR core on top of ZEKE being out would make him pretty hard to pay up for. I’d also guess that ATL plays hard on D this game too. The setup doesn’t exactly make you want to pay up for the highest priced QB on the slate especially considering all the high priced studs this week are in good spots.

  • Logan7777

    @thehazyone said...

    I got to write some NFL analysis for a change. Go check it out guys when you have a moment. Any ideas for future “infograph” articles, I’d love to hear – we’re probably going to make this a weekly column.

    https://rotogrinders.com/articles/nfl-defense-by-pass-direction-week-10-2175656

    Great article. Thanks!

  • ghost3490

    @htaneers said...

    My take: play Th-M this week, fade all games. yes, even Baldwin, Landry, McC, ARZ, Gronk, and DT.
    maybe play naked Cam if anything but I’d fade that too and some of the above are better plays lol.

    but i think there are less popular plays at almost all of the situations that the above are in, that have equal floor with lower ownership and more upside.
    there are some value plays in these games, particularly ARIvsSEA, but theres so much value in the main slate anyway.

    Can you clarify? Are u saying fade Baldwin? Why?

  • bignish

    @MattyK1981 said...

    A backup QB / marginal WR3 / solid TE stack against a Jets D that just shut down a much better team in the Bills last week …. I don’t see the stack being worthwhile perhaps maybe Brate or Humphries alone, perhaps. I think Humphries disappoints this weekend and burns a lot of chalk dollars with him, so I will stay away TYVM. In scenarios like this I like to play a fun game. I put Fitzpatrick into a lineup and then pause for a second and think to myself “of all the QBs I could play, I am picking this guy over all the rest because….?”

    And there better be a hell of a lot more in the plus side of the column than simply price and hope.

    What’s wrong with Fitz? The problem with the DFS community is that they focus on the wrong kind of cheap QB. I love getting guys like Hoyer/McCown/Fitzpatrick for cheap in situations where they’re thrust into a starting role due to injury or early in the season since they’re proven NFL QBs who’ve shown the ability to have big games and be competent.

    Instead, everyone on this forum salivates over Johnny Manziel, Kevin Hogan, Brett Hundley, etc. who have proven nothing in their 1st career starts in the NFL or terrible backups like Tom Savage or Brock Osweiler.

    I consider Fitz to be a better QB than maybe a 1/3 of the current starting QBs and at his min price, he should be close to a lock and load in cash games.

    Fitz in relief of Winston already put up a bigger fantasy performance against the Cardinals than Matt Ryan HAS DONE ALL YEAR!!!

    I agree with you about Humphries in that he’s simply a high floor play at that price.

  • bignish

    @htaneers said...

    My take: play Th-M this week, fade all games. yes, even Baldwin, Landry, McC, ARZ, Gronk, and DT.
    maybe play naked Cam if anything but I’d fade that too and some of the above are better plays lol.

    but i think there are less popular plays at almost all of the situations that the above are in, that have equal floor with lower ownership and more upside.
    there are some value plays in these games, particularly ARIvsSEA, but theres so much value in the main slate anyway.

    I like Gronk better in raw points than all but the top 2 WRs and 2 specific RBs. If anything, the Sunday night/Monday night skill players will be underowned since some users don’t want to wait that long to see their picks produce points.

    Gronk is going to smash Sunday night.

  • bignish

    @ghost3490 said...

    Can you clarify? Are u saying fade Baldwin? Why?

    I’m considering locking in Baldwin for Mon-Thurs cash games. I don’t see anyone below AJ Green that I like better than him straight up for raw points at the WR position.

  • KindGuy

    Guesses on Fitz ownership? The QB

  • htaneers

    @bignish said...

    I like Gronk better in raw points than all but the top 2 WRs and 2 specific RBs. If anything, the Sunday night/Monday night skill players will be underowned since some users don’t want to wait that long to see their picks produce points.

    Gronk is going to smash Sunday night.

    the broncos might be able to hit his knee enough to take him out of the game before he passes 20pts. if he gets up to 20 im fine

  • htaneers

    @bignish said...

    I’m considering locking in Baldwin for Mon-Thurs cash games. I don’t see anyone below AJ Green that I like better than him straight up for raw points at the WR position.

    People are trying to tell themselves that PP won’t shadow Baldwin, its kind of stupidly insane….

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