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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/7
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -1 ) at Oakland ( 1 ) —- T: 47.5

    Sunday, 11/10
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 11.5 ) at New Orleans ( -11.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -10.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 10.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( -1.5 ) at NY Jets ( 1.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 54
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 11.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -11.5 ) —- T: 43
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( -4 ) at Pittsburgh ( 4 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : Carolina ( 5.5 ) at Green Bay ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48
    8:20 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47

    Monday, 11/11
    8:15 PM EST : Seattle ( 6.5 ) at San Francisco ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • realphipps

    Waiting on Mike’s man/zone write-up so I can finally build some lineups.

  • superjon

    Really using a lot of the build rules in the optimizer this week.

    Created a contrarian group that has everyone in my player pool that’s under 10% pOWN. Then I set the rule so that every line up has between 1 and 3 players from that group.

    Also messing around with creating groups for players with negative correlation. For example, I have exposure to Godwin, Evans and Howard from Tampa. But no line up will have Godwin/Evans or Evans/Howard.

  • realphipps

    Ravens last 3 games…

    RB snaps…

    Week 6 v CIN- Ingram 31, Gus 33
    Week 7 @ SEA- Ingram 30, Gus 22
    Week 9 v NE- Ingram 31, Gus 28

    Redzone Carries….

    Week 6 v CIN- Ingram 2, Gus 3
    Week 7 @ SEA- Ingram 3, Gus 1
    Week 9 v NE- Ingram 3, Gus 2

    Are we sure we’re talking about the best RB play for Baltimore, especially if it’s a 2+ score lead in the second half?

    Ingram $7.1dk
    Gus $4.8dk

  • ifthethunder

    @blindsquirrel88 said...

    Is New Orleans D going to be able to slow down hooper?

    I like Hooper and will have him in a lineup or two. My concern is that Norleans can get after the passer and maybe they just sack the crap out of Matt Ryan?
    ~

  • realphipps

    It may bite me tomorrow, but I’m not seeing the AJ Brown play at all. Volume trump’s matchup, so they say, and Brown will see his fair share of targets…

    Yet, he’s playing 7%-9% of his snaps from the slot, depending on your source. That means 90%+ of his snaps will be against Charvarius Ward or Bashaud Breeland on the outside. Both Ward and Breeland are yielding under .22fp per route against on the season. Neither is seeing more than 15% targets per route on the season. Opposing QBs are simply focusing their targets to the interior.

    I kinda like Humphries, but not much. Limited ceiling. Kinda like Jonnu, but not much. Rock bottom floor. Yet, one of them will see lots of behind-on-the-scoreboard targets in the second half. Good luck guessing which one, but I don’t think it’ll be Brown.

  • 33BeRad

    think the Jets/Giants game is being slept on. Bell is banged up so they will probably lean on the pass. Both defenses are bad and Danny Dimes can be good against bad defenses plus he uses his legs. Lot of potential there.

    DJ and Ariz def stack is somehow interesting to me. Bad Jameis can show up in any game and DJ may get used as a WR more tomorrow with Drake there. Both rb’s could have value in that offense, not necessarily tomorrow against a top run def but down the line.

    Mack will have a decent game, nothing great.

    This will be an interesting week. I won’t be tilted until noon tomorrow instead of the usual 10:15. But only because I am working and don’t have my lunch break until then. HA!

  • wilks3579

    @realphipps said...

    Are we sure we’re talking about the best RB play for Baltimore, especially if it’s a 2+ score lead in the second half?

    Ingram $7.1dk
    Gus $4.8dk

    What’s Gus’ realistic ceiling, 14-15 DK pts? He had a td last week and had 8.7 pts. In the 4k price range I would much rather have the likes of Damien Williams, Joe Mixon or Ty Johnson and just avoid the Ravens backfield all together

  • mike42

    @realphipps said...

    Waiting on Mike’s man/zone write-up so I can finally build some lineups.

    I’m sorry. I’m going out tonight and I wasn’t positive you guys were interested. Hopefully I get a chance tomorrow AM but off the top of my head:

    Ridley- I read a quote from Quin after the trade that said Ridley and Gage can play the slot. Coming off of bye, I’m guessing they use him there more given that’s where NO’s is weakest.

    K. Murray- TB plays a lot of man and running QB’s do better Vs man. I think he smashes on the ground and you can play him naked.

    D. Adams Vs zone is a thing, he’s top 5. Also, it should be a Godwin week based on scheme.
    Kupp- Mincah doesn’t cover slot guys ever. It’s a good matchup and nobody is on him.
    R. Anderson has sucked Vs man this year and that’s what Mia played. Giants plays zone so u can put him back on your list. C. Rogers Vs man this week, Pascal Vs zone last week.

    Car, GB and Ten all had favorable matchups in the run game based on analytics. I think because they didn’t run Henry early last week, they should this week.

    Bye week changes: I think Cincy makes Lamar pass the ball. He ran all over them a month ago and I think they put 9 in the box before they let him do it again. Hollywood?

    Ryan- I’m guessing they come out of the bye in a 2 min O, score some points and make this a game.

    GB injuries are huge. Guessing they were going to play tight man, stack the box and make Allen beat them. If Alexander is out, that’s going to be hard to do and should leave Samuels in a great spot. Also, Amos is a run stuffing S and he’s questionable. Both those guys are out and this game could shootout.

  • realphipps

    @wilks3579 said...

    What’s Gus’ realistic ceiling, 14-15 DK pts? He had a td last week and had 8.7 pts. In the 4k price range I would much rather have the likes of Damien Williams, Joe Mixon or Ty Johnson and just avoid the Ravens backfield all together

    I agree. Very risky play.

    Yet, if this is a 23-10 game going into the 4th (or something similar/plausible) Ingram’s going to be talking dinner plans on the bench while Gus eats on the field.

    It’s a script-only play on Gus, hoping they’re up 2+ scores after half.

    It’s a warning sign for playing Ingram at all.

  • NDNole

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    What is putting you on Edmunds? Samuels racks up the catches, and that PPR is sure nice.

    Because I dont think samuels gets 13 receptions again and his running was pretty garbage any game I saw him this year. Edmunds will get the traditional carries and add in a TD and he can help round out a team. right now im 100% on him. 5/5 Edmonds.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @steveharvey said...

    That’s a concern sure, but Ingram is still the primary back against the worst run D in the league and should be playing with a big lead… the positives really outweigh the negatives here imo

    Lamar is the primary back

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    I guess it makes sense that Ingram would get more run in a weak opponent and Lamar more run against tougher opponents though

  • TJRhodes

    @superjon said...

    Siege Fade – CMC

    Awesomo Fade – Singletary

    Chris Spags – Kamara

    Seriously can’t get Singletary in my lineup fast enough. 100% srs

  • squidkill

    @NDNole said...

    Because I dont think samuels gets 13 receptions again and his running was pretty garbage any game I saw him this year. Edmunds will get the traditional carries and add in a TD and he can help round out a team. right now im 100% on him. 5/5 Edmonds.

  • squidkill

    @NDNole said...

    Because I dont think samuels gets 13 receptions again and his running was pretty garbage any game I saw him this year. Edmunds will get the traditional carries and add in a TD and he can help round out a team. right now im 100% on him. 5/5 Edmonds.

    You guys wonder how u lose money

  • superjon

    @TJRhodes said...

    Seriously can’t get Singletary in my lineup fast enough. 100% srs

    His fades haven’t performed well over the last few weeks. I’m gonna have to side with Awesomeo on this one. No interest in a road back on a team with an 18.5 implied total.

  • NDNole

    @squidkill said...

    You guys wonder how u lose money

    1. I dont lose money
    2. Im pretty sure at minimum im as good as you or better
    3. You can look at any of my takes over these weeks and see how they turn out
    4. Get at me after the steelers play tomorrow and then we will see how it turned out lol

  • kdsdawg

    just realized that I have 100% Pitt defense. Ten L/Us. Hmmm. Might need to take a look at that for some pivots in that range

  • squidkill

    @NDNole said...

    1. I dont lose money
    2. Im pretty sure at minimum im as good as you or better
    3. You can look at any of my takes over these weeks and see how they turn out
    4. Get at me after the steelers play tomorrow and then we will see how it turned out lol

    Squidcity12 on DK Any amount up to 109. Send it now

  • realphipps

    Trey Edmunds saw 17 snaps (27% market share) last week, ND. Just curious what you’re seeing here? Are you scripting the game with PIT leading in the 2nd half?

  • NDNole

    @realphipps said...

    Trey Edmunds saw 17 snaps (27% market share) last week, ND. Just curious what you’re seeing here? Are you scripting the game with PIT leading in the 2nd half?

    Yes. And im saying he will get the carries this game and score a TD. I dont do cash games by the way.

  • Dunzor

    I’ve got my teams locked in and will not be tweaking barring sudden injury (none of them are Q) so here’s some hot takes that are reflected in my lineups:

    - R. Jones outscores at least one and probably both of Evans & Godwin

    - There will be no Ari players on the Milly winner

    - Saquon outscores CMC

    - Hooper is the highest scoring player for Atl

    - M. Thomas will not be on the Milly winner

    - The top scoring WR will come from the late 4:00 games

  • squidkill

    @NDNole said...

    Yes. And im saying he will get the carries this game and score a TD. I dont do cash games by the way.

    Send it Nole.

  • NoLimits0

    Watch some random guy like Tajae Sharpe be on the winning MM team.

  • NDNole

    @squidkill said...

    Send it Nole.

    My $ goes to trying to win GPP’s not head to head for any reason. Like I said, trash me after the steelers game.

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