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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/7
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -1 ) at Oakland ( 1 ) —- T: 47.5

    Sunday, 11/10
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 11.5 ) at New Orleans ( -11.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -10.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 10.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( -1.5 ) at NY Jets ( 1.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 54
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 11.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -11.5 ) —- T: 43
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( -4 ) at Pittsburgh ( 4 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : Carolina ( 5.5 ) at Green Bay ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48
    8:20 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47

    Monday, 11/11
    8:15 PM EST : Seattle ( 6.5 ) at San Francisco ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • skizums0726

    @marker0357 said...

    Colts D/Doyle/Mack Attack this week

    At first glance Colts D will be my highest owned Defense this week, so I think Mack is definitely a good stack with it. 24% of top ten finishing lineups in the Milly Maker have a RB/DEF correlating stack. I think the play will be chalky but if Mack stays under 20% I might be heavy on it, have to see what value is there throughout the week.

  • skizums0726

    I had 100% Samuels last week and 80%Pitt D. Focused most line ups on the Green Bay game instead of Seahawk game with Godwin being my highest owned receiver. Totally blew that call but hard to not go back to that well and Game stack the GB game this week especially if the total creeps up to 50 or higher. CMC is a must play every week, no matter the price. I was even with the field last week and under the field on Dalvin. Read something that said GB will be the easiest run defense CMC has faced all year.

  • skizums0726

    @33BeRad said...

    Is anyone going to run a gpp lineup with Finley? I am kicking around the idea. I think Baltimore could come out flat after their huge win against the Pats, against a winless Cincy. Pair him with Tate? I don’t know, it’s Monday and we are gonna need some salary relief somewhere

    I can definitely see it being a letdown spot for Baltimore and Cincy D plays better with a week to game plan. I just think the players have given up more so then the coaching staff, they probably feel stuck. I want to see if AJ practices. Boyd is super cheap but he will see Humphreys, that leaves AJ Green with either Smith or Peter’s, or maybe Humphries sticks with AJ, I’m not sure and would like to hear others opinions on this. I think we could get great value on some stud receivers if we know who’s covering who but my gut days stay far away, and I’m a Bengals fan. They just suck this year and Finley probably sucks too.

  • skizums0726

    That battle of TE flow charts between Arizona and Tampa Bay. If everyone goes back to Brate/O.J. give me Max Williams for 2700. High implied total, Bucs suck covering TE and Williams has outsnapped and out targeted Clay over the last few weeks. Any thoughts on that?

  • ifthethunder

    The only thought I have is for some reason, Winston will not throw to tight ends this year.
    ~

  • Boneys2000

    Already have a couple of lineups made.For some reason they look great on Tuesday.

  • Boneys2000

    I might do one with the Cincy Qb.Of course I tried a Haskins lineup and that didnt gotoo well.

  • steveharvey

    @ifthethunder said...

    The only thought I have is for some reason, Winston will not throw to tight ends this year.

    It appears to be an Arians thing.

    “Overall, Arizona had the 2nd fewest tight end targets with Arians as Head Coach with just 424 in five years.”

    https://www.pff.com/news/pro-bruce-arians-todd-bowles-give-buccaneers-real-shot-at-contending-in-2019

  • BIF

    @ifthethunder said...

    The only thought I have is for some reason, Winston will not throw to tight ends this year.
    ~

    Last week was the first real week where Bucs TEs saw a drop off in targets – Hudson and Auclair still each had 2 targets but Brate didn’t have any. Brate had 6 the week before and overall they average only 5 targets to the TEs per week. Pretty low overall by league standards but a lot of them are RZ targets. I think they priced up Brate too much this week especially if OJ is back. If OJ misses, I’d buy Hudson on the cheap as Auclair got hurt last game and likely misses so they’ll only have 2 TEs active. If OJ plays I doubt I touch any of them – if OJ and Auclair miss, Ill have some cheap Hudson fillers.

    Let’s not forget that this week is Arians Revenge game and I expect the team to get up for the coach against his former team.

  • BIF

    @steveharvey said...

    It appears to be an Arians thing.

    “Overall, Arizona had the 2nd fewest tight end targets with Arians as Head Coach with just 424 in five years.”

    https://www.pff.com/news/pro-bruce-arians-todd-bowles-give-buccaneers-real-shot-at-contending-in-2019

    Also when Arians was in Zona, he loved the random backup TE red zone look – I remember playing their TE1 Gresham a few times and they’d throw a tilting TD pass to TE3 or TE4 Troy Niklas 🙄

  • squidkill

    So CMC then who? Not seeing a reason to pay up in CASH for 2 high priced RB- A Jones in another good spot but showed last week he still does have a low floor-

  • squidkill

    I’m not playing an RB on a tanking team in Cash- So Jets/Dolphin guys are off my radar.

  • Dunzor

    @squidkill said...

    I’m not playing an RB on a tanking team in Cash- So Jets/Dolphin guys are off my radar.

    I think Singletary and Montgomery are viable options in the 5k range as their usage is on the rise and both are up against pretty bad run defenses, and both guys are catching a fair number of passes as well which is nice. Then Mack would probably be a solid option at 7k if you want a bit higher floor but probably lower ceiling since he doesn’t catch many passes.

  • squidkill

    @Dunzor

    I think id find the xtra $400 and play Jones and his ceiling then play Mack for his 14-17 fantasy points…

    Singletary/Mont will look at sure

  • superstars92

    @ifthethunder said...

    Thing about Ballage vs Jaylen Samuels: Miami’s offensive line managed to look competent against the Jests. But they’ll need the Steeler’s o.l. to look good versus Indiana.
    ~

    I think Bif was kidding? Very few people are choosing Ballage lol.

  • superstars92

    @squidkill said...

    So CMC then who? Not seeing a reason to pay up in CASH for 2 high priced RB- A Jones in another good spot but showed last week he still does have a low floor-

    WRs are in way better spots. You can just punt the other RB this week.

  • superstars92

    @skizums0726 said...

    If everyone goes back to Brate/O.J. give me Max Williams for 2700

    Unlikely this happens. People might stack that TE for that game, but most likely people will choose Godwin/Evans in a non-stack, so you never would choose the TE.

  • Supanice

    If brisket plays they will run it 30+ times, they will not throw from the 2 like the Jets last week.

  • superstars92

    @Supanice said...

    If brisket plays they will run it 30+ times, they will not throw from the 2 like the Jets last week.

    Either you can build your lineups CMC/Mack to start or CMC/punt RB. The thing is WR is loaded this week including Michael Thomas (his counterpart Julio in a game stack), the Tampa Bay WRs (and their counterparts in Arizona in a game stack) – and there are 2 vs 2 on each side that you can choose, the other Saints WRs, Cooper Kupp, and a whole bunch of other possible options (Panthers still kinda cheap, Pascal maybe although he’s priced up, Davante Parker).

    That’ll really be the key this week.

    Or you can fade CMC. That’s also fine. I actually don’t think it’s a terrible idea to fade CMC this week if you plan on game stacking 3 high priced WRs like Evans/Godwin/Kirk.

  • superstars92

    The Godwin vs. Evans debate will happen sometime later this week. Won’t be participating in that. Instead, you might wanna just flip a coin =). It’s amazing though they are so high variance but it’s very random in a way but they both are in top lineups almost every week.

    Ok I’m kinda joking about the coin flip, I’m sure there are some stats that kinda can tell you which one…will look more into that. It’s also specific to where Patrick Peterson goes and if he’s even good anymore.

  • bigez952

    @superstars92 said...

    124 RG Overall Ranking RG Overall Ranking Ranked #81 RG Tiered Ranking RG Tiered Ranking The Godwin vs. Evans debate will happen sometime later this week. Won’t be participating in that. Instead, you might wanna just flip a coin =). It’s amazing though they are so high variance but it’s very random in a way but they both are in top lineups almost every week.

    The last couple of weeks have pointed to Godwin having the better matchup but Evans still has been the one going off. Probably will be the same way again this week if Patrick Peterson travels with Evans. However I don’t think it matters and I think it is best to just have some exposure to both as you know one of them will go nuts.

  • superstars92

    @bigez952 said...

    The last couple of weeks have pointed to Godwin having the better matchup but Evans still has been the one going off. Probably will be the same way again this week if Patrick Peterson travels with Evans. However I don’t think it matters and I think it is best to just have some exposure to both as you know one of them will go nuts.

    It matters a ton in cash games and smaller entry tournaments. A whole bunch of cash lineups had Godwin and pretty much none had Mike Evans last week. If those guys had Evans instead of Godwin, a lot more of those Godwin lineups would have cashed.

    The other option is to split your cash game between Evans and Godwin, but that’s also somewhat weird to do because now if Godwin were to go off and Evans does nothing, you’ll be like, wait I shoulda just went 100% Godwin in cash.

    In GPPs, yea you should split if you are doing like 20 entries I agree, but for smaller tournaments and if you plan on entering like 5 lineups, it’s a big deal.

  • superstars92

    Also, why have the last few weeks pointed to Godwin having the better matchup? Just curious.

    Evans is the better athlete/contested ball/bigger play threat (being 6’5” helps) receiver for sure. Godwin is the better route runner and more technical receiver (kinda like Keenan Allen). If you wanted a red zone TD or a 50 yard TD, I would choose Evans. If you wanted a solid 15 yard reception and some yac, I would choose Godwin.

    I would think almost every single NFL GM would take Evans over Godwin if they were just choosing 1 WR for their team.

  • wafflesandbeer

    @superstars92 said...

    Also, why have the last few weeks pointed to Godwin having the better matchup? Just curious.

    Evans is the better athlete/contested ball receiver for sure. Godwin is the better route runner and more technical receiver (kinda like Keenan Allen).

    I would think almost every single NFL GM would take Evans over Godwin if they were just choosing 1 WR for their team.

    I know last week, people were touting that Evans was the guy to pick against man defenses and Godwin against zone defenses. And since Seattle mostly played zone, everyone was picking Godwin. Not sure what went wrong with that theory. Did Seattle switch to man Defense vs. TB? Or maybe it was just not enough of a sample size to base the conclusion on?

  • superstars92

    @wafflesandbeer said...

    I know last week, people were touting that Evans was the guy to pick against man defenses and Godwin against zone defenses. And since Seattle mostly played zone, everyone was picking Godwin. Not sure what went wrong with that theory. Did Seattle switch to man Defense vs. TB? Or maybe it was just not enough of a sample size to base the conclusion on?

    Oh yea I guess that makes sense. I mean Godwin is more of a technical route runner so he usually can operate the middle of the field a lot better than Evans and just sit in the middle of the zone.

    But the thing is, although Godwin is a very good receiver, I would assume Evans is just the better player, so that should make up for something.

    It’s always gonna be a small sample size with the WRs because a few plays make up a ton of FPs for them per game. Over the long run, you get a better idea, but it’s still way more variance than NBA with 82 games.

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