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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/7
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -1 ) at Oakland ( 1 ) —- T: 47.5

    Sunday, 11/10
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 11.5 ) at New Orleans ( -11.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -10.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 10.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( -1.5 ) at NY Jets ( 1.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 54
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 11.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -11.5 ) —- T: 43
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( -4 ) at Pittsburgh ( 4 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : Carolina ( 5.5 ) at Green Bay ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48
    8:20 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47

    Monday, 11/11
    8:15 PM EST : Seattle ( 6.5 ) at San Francisco ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • blindsquirrel88

    @wafflesandbeer said...

    I know last week, people were touting that Evans was the guy to pick against man defenses and Godwin against zone defenses. And since Seattle mostly played zone, everyone was picking Godwin. Not sure what went wrong with that theory. Did Seattle switch to man Defense vs. TB? Or maybe it was just not enough of a sample size to base the conclusion on?

    I believe it was also said that E. Ebron was better against zones and J.Doyle man defenses. However, Brissett got injured and Hoyer played. Who knows if that pattern remains true with a different quarterback. In any case, that choice came very close to tanking my cash games so I won’t be using that stat anymore unless it is further buttressed. By the way, anyone looking at the Steelers DST as a low cost option this week? Not sure I want to go any lower.

  • superstars92

    @blindsquirrel88 said...

    In any case, that choice came very close to tanking my cash games so I won’t be using that stat anymore unless it is further buttressed. By the way, anyone looking at the Steelers DST as a low cost option this week? Not sure I want to go any lower.

    Man feel like this is the SAT forum with people using buttressed =).

    Anyhow, no defenses standout this week so I think Steelers is viable. Defenses is fairly random anyways and Goff is prone to INTs.

  • parrothead112

    How we would we feel about Samuels at his current price against the Rams who are bound to score more points then Colts did? That is if Conner doesn’t play.

  • blindsquirrel88

    @superstars92 said...

    Man feel like this is the SAT forum with people using buttressed =).

    Anyhow, no defenses standout this week so I think Steelers is viable. Defenses is fairly random anyways and Goff is prone to INTs.

    Lol. I thought twice about using that word, but went ahead and used it anyway. Also, is away and home Goff still a thing. I guess the ability of the Rams to put up large numbers, possibly hurts the floor for Cash games —its not like we are paying 1800, but the Steelers DST has been scoring well lately.

  • BIF

    @superstars92 said...

    I think Bif was kidding? Very few people are choosing Ballage lol.

    Correct – he’ll see volume like he never has before but I don’t like the matchup and Fitz is unlikely to play the dumpoff game – biggest winner with Walton and P Will out is Hurns and Gesicki in my mind as someone has to get the 7 to 10 air yard targets and it ain’t gonna be Ballage.

  • mike42

    @blindsquirrel88 said...

    I believe it was also said that E. Ebron was better against zones and J.Doyle man defenses. However, Brissett got injured and Hoyer played. Who knows if that pattern remains true with a different quarterback. In any case, that choice came very close to tanking my cash games so I won’t be using that stat anymore unless it is further buttressed. By the way, anyone looking at the Steelers DST as a low cost option this week? Not sure I want to go any lower.

    Ebron should not have been in your cash LU either way. He’s the number 2 TE and wasn’t playing all the snaps. Fant was the 3k TE that would have been in play in cash given his role was growing and certain. Ebron was GPP only.

    The stats matter, it’s just not a 100% thing. The higher the entry cost last week, the more Godwin was owned over Evans. It was like 3 to 1 in some contests even though POWN had them on equal footing. It was the “sharp” play but who knows. Metcalf smashed on the other end and I’d guess that he wouldn’t have if he wasn’t playing a man to man D. Julio and Ridley have played by the man vs zone rules all year long in almost every single game. It’s definitely a factor and one most don’t look at, but nothing is a 100% in DFS.

    Im sorry if I didn’t buttressed enough.

  • blindsquirrel88

    @mike42 said...

    Ebron should not have been in your cash LU either way. He’s the number 2 TE and wasn’t playing all the snaps. Fant was the 3k TE that would have been in play in cash given his role was growing and certain. Ebron was GPP only.

    The stats matter, it’s just not a 100% thing. The higher the entry cost last week, the more Godwin was owned over Evans. It was like 3 to 1 in some contests even though POWN had them on equal footing. It was the “sharp” play but who knows. Metcalf smashed on the other end and I’d guess that he wouldn’t have if he wasn’t playing a man to man D. Julio and Ridley have played by the man vs zone rules all year long in almost every single game. It’s definitely a factor and one most don’t look at, but nothing is a 100% in DFS.

    Im sorry if I didn’t buttressed enough.

    I wasn’t blaming you. I was blaming myself and saying my research was not good enough. You’re right, you can’t take any of this information by itself. I thought ebron/doyle was more half and half — kind of dumb and easy to refute by looking it up. I will use this whole thing as a learning experience. Not saying data was bad, it just had to be factored in with other data, of course. Should of stuck with Fant. Unfortunately, I overestimated the Cleveland D and underestimated the Broncos.

  • squidkill

    @blindsquirrel88 said...

    I believe it was also said that E. Ebron was better against zones and J.Doyle man defenses. However, Brissett got injured and Hoyer played. Who knows if that pattern remains true with a different quarterback. In any case, that choice came very close to tanking my cash games so I won’t be using that stat anymore unless it is further buttressed. By the way, anyone looking at the Steelers DST as a low cost option this week? Not sure I want to go any lower.

    Ebron in cash? You need to re-evaluate your process. I thought fant was thin. Jesus Christ

  • keephustlincuz

    @squidkill said...

    Ebron in cash? You need to re-evaluate your process. I thought fant was thin. Jesus Christ

    There are some juicy thin TEs this week.

  • blindsquirrel88

    @squidkill said...

    Ebron in cash? You need to re-evaluate your process. I thought fant was thin. Jesus Christ

    Did you stick with Fant? If not, who did you pivot to? I am constantly reevaluating my process. I put my mistake out there hopefully as a cautionary tale. I thought it might help others on the forum, but I guess I can go back to just lurking if its wasting people’s time. Please share the TE that you played and the process you used — like Mike42 did. I’m always eager to improve.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @squidkill said...

    Ebron in cash? You need to re-evaluate your process. I thought fant was thin. Jesus Christ

    Fant was in the winning Milly line-up. He’s probably re-evaluating his process as we speak

  • BIF

    @squidkill said...

    Ebron in cash? You need to re-evaluate your process. I thought fant was thin. Jesus Christ

    I had Jonnu – he was not good either but the situation, volume (usually), YAC and TD equity made sense to me for 3700 or 3800

    No way I play a TE committee in cash so Indy was out – Fant would have been a cash reach as well though I did have him on a couple GPP lineups

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @blindsquirrel88 said...

    I put my mistake out there hopefully as a cautionary tale. I thought it might help others on the forum, but I guess I can go back to just lurking if its wasting people’s time. Please share the TE that you played and the process you used

    Don’t let your feelings get hurt by Squid. Sometimes his whiteys are a bit too tighty. And for future reference never ever ask Squid to share his process. It entails the aforementioned tighty whiteys and the last 2 stalls of the closest highway rest stop.

  • blindsquirrel88

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Don’t let your feelings get hurt by Squid. Sometimes his whiteys are a bit too tighty. And for future reference never ever ask Squid to share his process. It entails the aforementioned tighty whiteys and the last 2 stalls of the closest highway rest stop.

    Lol. What was I thinking? I will try to learn from that mistake.

  • blindsquirrel88

    @BIF said...

    I had Jonnu – he was not good either but the situation, volume (usually), YAC and TD equity made sense to me for 3700 or 3800

    No way I play a TE committee in cash so Indy was out – Fant would have been a cash reach as well though I did have him on a couple GPP lineups

    I thought about Jonnu too and Brate, but was having trouble liking anyone around 3Kish. I liked Ertz, but couldn’t dumpster-dive enough to reach price-wise, so I ended up going with the micro-thin justification for Ebron. Definitely going to remind myself about volume once or twice before hitting submit. Looking at Gesicki, right now, he’s cheap, he looks like he has the lion’s share of Dolphin targets and I don’t think the Giants will overwhelm.

  • squidkill

    @blindsquirrel88 said...

    Did you stick with Fant? If not, who did you pivot to? I am constantly reevaluating my process. I put my mistake out there hopefully as a cautionary tale. I thought it might help others on the forum, but I guess I can go back to just lurking if its wasting people’s time. Please share the TE that you played and the process you used — like Mike42 did. I’m always eager to improve.

    Lol. Don’t take it from me pal. I played Brate. I’m a fish. 🤷‍♂️ Honestly, it was between Brate Doyle Fant in that range I chose the nut low. Shoulda backed off due to rib injury.

  • squidkill

    @blindsquirrel88 said...

    Lol. What was I thinking? I will try to learn from that mistake.

    Nah. I’ll share when I’m wrong. I often am. Just thought Doyle was the one to emerge from that time share. Ebron was being phased out slowly it seemed.

  • blindsquirrel88

    @squidkill said...

    Lol. Don’t take it from me pal. I played Brate. I’m a fish. 🤷‍♂️ Honestly, it was between Brate Doyle Fant in that range I chose the nut low. Shoulda backed off due to rib injury.

    Lol. I’m a fish too. I had Brate sitting there in my lineup for the majority of the week(Jameis does like him), but I think his injury might have scared me off. Unfortunately, my research is not what it should be and I had the coverage thing and the memory of the nice touchdown grab Ebron made a few weeks ago on my mind (I know, I know — 1 splash play is a terrible process for cash.) Take Doyle and the trending increase in playing time.

  • NDNole

    Ive said it already, but i’l throw it out there again. Put Montgomery on your radar as I think the Bears may have come to their senses and let him be the lead back he should be.

  • deeebo

    hello all – 1st place this week in my work league. i think im back on top in the standings too. 140 pts on FD. prob would have gotten nothing if i joined a real contest haha. but as far as this week goes? fade CMC and play 3 higher priced rbs? or play CMC and mack and another low priced rb. hmmmmm

  • deeebo

    i also can play dalvin this week against the cowboys

  • deeebo

    also why is no one talking about Ingram vs Cin? isnt that the easiest RB lock this week besides cmc?

  • keephustlincuz

    @deeebo said...

    hello all – 1st place this week in my work league. i think im back on top in the standings too. 140 pts on FD. prob would have gotten nothing if i joined a real contest haha. but as far as this week goes? fade CMC and play 3 higher priced rbs? or play CMC and mack and another low priced rb. hmmmmm

    And look at the first comments of the week. You have the gpp and the cash thing figured out.
    Deeebo… I think you are learning.

  • deeebo

    @keephustlincuz said...

    And look at the first comments of the week. You have the gpp and the cash thing figured out.
    Deeebo… I think you are learning.

    thank you sir!

  • MonkeraiKnight

    @deeebo said...

    also why is no one talking about Ingram vs Cin? isnt that the easiest RB lock this week besides cmc?

    Probably scared of Lamar stealing all the rushing plays. But really they both should smash and maybe not a huge day for the receivers.

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