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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    Thursday, 11/12
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, 11/15
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at NY Giants ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -6.5 ) at Carolina ( 6.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3.5 ) at Detroit ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Cleveland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 54
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 14 ) at Green Bay ( -14 ) —- T: 53
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50
    4:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2 ) at Arizona ( -2 ) —- T: 54.5
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( -4.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( 1 ) at LA Rams ( -1 ) —- T: 55.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 9 ) at Pittsburgh ( -9 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( -6.5 ) at New England ( 6.5 ) —- T: 41.5

    Monday, 11/16
    8:15 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2.5 ) at Chicago ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • miggs6876

    @infantryboys said...

    I’m fading it, as well as the GB/Jax passing game. Of course, I’m primarily a cash game player and I only do 2 3-entry-max contests for a total of 6 GPP LUs. If I MMEd I’d probably have some exposure but I’d be underweight.

    I still like Duke Johnson with David Johnson out. He is still dangerous catching the shirt screen passes. Throw in the runs he gets as a bonus.

  • Rickytango13

    Well dudes I just made the winning milly lineup, single bullet style. Jones+Conner+gb d. Enter at your own risk and I’ll see ya at the top.

  • mnstone14

    @whodat2 said...

    Just entering the chat and I see the value and “free squares” are Mike Davis and Gio Benard. Against Tampa and Pittsburg lol….. good luck with that. {Now that I comment, I’m sure will both go off for 30 burgers.}

    im going to assume duke is the play over gio but who knows. I dont think you have to play a second cheap(ish) rb.Theres a few 5k wrs that are in good spots to allow you to go from duke/gio to sanders if you chose.

  • TopDawgs07

    @squidkill said...

    Way too much RB talk. Let’s discuss mid range WR… Kupp Woods. Parker. Pitt WRs ?

    Claypool.

  • miggs6876

    @Njsum1 said...

    When Goff goes off this week, I don’t want to hear how good he is. Everyone goes off against Seattle. However, if he doesn’t go off…well then, we have a problem. 🤪

    You have to think that McVay has a solid game plan especially with the bye week in hand. Hard to see them not exploiting the passing liability of the Seahawks. I’m. No fan of Goff but he’s very capable when in rhythm and little pressure. I’m not seeing a positive correlation between Kupp and Woods. I’m leaning towards Kupp.

  • miggs6876

    @ELopez432 said...

    Is Kyle Murray too much at 8000 for gpp with other Qbs in good spots?

    I don’t think so. He gives you an awesome floor with a high ceiling. He’s this years version of last years Lamar Jackson.

  • DarthPasta

    Murray/Duke or Herbert/Sanders? GPP. Ownership of the second might be lower, so is that the way to go?

  • miggs6876

    @Randallus said...

    Hahahaha THIS IS WHY I DON’T COMMENT ON MY OWN TEAM! IT ALWAYS DEVOLVES TO THE BS NARRATIVE OF ME BEING A BIASED FAN AND “NO POINT IN RESPONDING TO YOUR POINTS BECAUSE YOU’RE BIASED AND THEREFORE THAT RENDERS YOUR POINTS IRRELEVANT.” RANT OVER

    For real, though, I expect Goff to do well as most do. If he doesn’t do well, I don’t think that means much either. One game doesn’t dictate how good or bad a QB is. And if you haven’t noticed, I rarely/never comment on the Rams unless someone asks me directly, so I don’t plan to mention it at all.

    Also, I like how you phrased it hahaha. If he does well, he should. If he doesn’t, he sucks. XD XD XD

    I’m seeing that Woods and Kupp often don’t have blowup games together. One far often exceeds value while the other fails to hit value. This seems like a game where both should exceed value? I’m thinking it’s better to play one and pair them with Reynolds and a TE.

  • miggs6876

    @Bigb1485 said...

    Optimal lineup has had a 7k plus qb every week except 2 and on was dak at 6.8k

    Personally i think there are too many qbs that can run for 40+ yards every week (= a passing td) and get the 300 yard bonus to play one that doesnt do both.

    Pocket passers have to have 300+ and 4tds+ to break 30..whereas a dual threat can get you 180 yards passing with 1 td and 50 yards rushing with a td and youve got 22 points from a fairly poor real life game and a good game crushes of course..whereas a real life good game from a pocket passer of say 330 yards passing and 2 tds gets you only 24

    No doubt a running QB has tremendous upside.

  • miggs6876

    @BIF said...

    The last time I saw Norman play against Tenn, the Bills would have been better off keeping him off the field and just running 10 guys out there.

    I’m sure the drop off to next-man-up for him can’t be much.

    Agree 100%. Your vision seems to be 20-20. Norman is washed up. He forced a big fumble on Las Vegas TE Waller earlier this year. I think he’s more of an inspirational leader.

  • BIF

    @mnstone14 said...

    few things. The game will undoubtedly be played at a slower pace. Both teams are going to want to run more. What gies hand in hand with that obviously is less pass attempts. And Chris Conley or Keelan Cole after going to soak up a portion of those Shenault targets, again, of which here will be less to go around anyway.

    Pretty much like the mike davis thing, its a fine play as a dart purely to be different. if the weather is as bad as advertised, theres a decent chance GB doesnt jump out to a big lead, Jax doesnt have to throw and James Robinson gets 30 touches.

    I don’t think the Jacksonville OL is good enough to have success running it 30 times as Green Bay will quickly be putting 8 in the box – I know Jacksonville will likely not throw it more than 30 times but I still think Chark gets at least a 1/3 target share.

    Shenault got hurt on his first target/catch: Conley got 8 targets and Cole had 2; Chark got 12 of the 38 passes Luton threw.

    As an aside, the windiest game in the 2010’s that I found was a 2011 game between Rams and Browns in Cleveland with 40mph winds. Even with those winds, Sam Bradford threw 25 passes and Colt McCoy threw 27 passes and they combined for almost 400 yards so it’s not impossible to think a WR can hit value.

    Again, I’m not saying Chark is a “free square” but he has a great chance to put up decent numbers at probably his lowest ownership all year against a spotty GB defense without Jaire Alexander.

  • Getty33

    @BIF said...

    I don’t think the Jacksonville OL is good enough to have success running it 30 times as Green Bay will quickly be putting 8 in the box – I know Jacksonville will likely not throw it more than 30 times but I still think Chark gets at least a 1/3 target share.

    Shenault got hurt on his first target/catch: Conley got 8 targets and Cole had 2; Chark got 12 of the 38 passes Luton threw.

    As an aside, the windiest game in the 2010’s that I found was a 2011 game between Rams and Browns in Cleveland with 40mph winds. Even with those winds, Sam Bradford threw 25 passes and Colt McCoy threw 27 passes and they combined for almost 400 yards so it’s not impossible to think a WR can hit value.

    Again, I’m not saying Chark is a “free square” but he has a great chance to put up decent numbers at probably his lowest ownership all year against a spotty GB defense without Jaire Alexander.

    Exactly. Conley is running the slot with Shenault out, which is why he’ll see an uptick in targets, but he won’t do anything with them. Chark is the only receiver who can separate, make contested catches, and blow the top off the secondary when needed. Luton will continue to look to him first for all the right reasons.

  • lukemiller42

    I think Luton is a 6th round qb on the road in bad weather. Gb Def is the play there for me. I’d still rather just play mike Davis

  • rjschick92

    Jacksonville trying to throw in a windy/cold environment while likely trailing…recipe for disaster. GB and NO defense are my preference.

    McLaurin is a nice pivot off the chalky WR’s. Dome game against a putrid Lions D.

  • Njsum1

    @SRQ750 said...

    Here’s the crazy thing. We have a sample size of 8 or 9 gams for all these players. Throw in wind. Throw in RB committees. Throw in all the soft tissue injuries with no training camps. Throw in COVID. This stuff is a total crapshoot to begin with.

    Seems like you get when it comes to NFL GPP’s, especially this year.

    Cash, just play all high owned guys and you’ll be fine, as the injuries won’t hurt, since the guys getting injured will be 80% owned.

    I’ve been playing DFS for nfl, nba, nhl, mlb, and a lineup here or there for golf (don’t know much about golf, so the lineups aren’t researched based) for over 5 years, and I can say that the best sports for making money with GPP’s are NBA and NHL.

    Fewest injuries, least variance, 180ish slates for each. Hockey people will say is high variance, and while I agree individual player variance is high, stacks are not hard to predict. MLB has so many moving parts that if you don’t make 150 lineups per slate, GPP success is difficult unless you do single entry tourneys. 🤷‍♂️

    Nba and nhl. 🔥👍🍀🍀🔥

  • NDNole

    @BIF said...

    How many free squares in the last 2 years have even hit 3x ?

    When I hear “free square”, all I hear is “don’t play that guy even if he was free!”

    Yeah I agree. I already made up my mind im going to fade. If I get crushed I get crushed. I think he will do just fine but a guy who is probably going to be over 50% well I’l pass even if he will get the usage. Its against the bucs and I honestly would have faded CMC. I dont play rb vs tampa. Davis could score 20 and noone would be surprised, even 30. I hope he doesnt and I hope he stays in the 12 point area.

  • BIF

    TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers landed in Charlotte, North Carolina, late Saturday night after a delay of more than seven hours brought on by mechanical issues with their plane, a team source told ESPN.

    According to the original flight plan, the team was scheduled to depart Tampa International Airport at 2:25 p.m. ET Saturday and arrive in Charlotte at 3:55 p.m. ET. The team eventually boarded a new plane that took off just after 10 p.m. ET and landed at 11:27 p.m. ET.

    Before switching planes, the Bucs were on the tarmac for more than five hours, the source said. They held team meetings at the airport and ate a meal there, but it was in an area of the airport for chartered planes with restricted access.

    The team scattered about the building and went outdoors to accommodate social distancing.

    Tampa Bay is set to play the Carolina Panthers at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.

  • theIrrigator

    @mnstone14 said...

    parkers only 5k, what is so important with that 2k that youre going to give up the huge floor difference between the two?

    Huge floor?

  • zovyn

    @BIF said...

    TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers landed in Charlotte, North Carolina, late Saturday night after a delay of more than seven hours brought on by mechanical issues with their plane, a team source told ESPN.

    According to the original flight plan, the team was scheduled to depart Tampa International Airport at 2:25 p.m. ET Saturday and arrive in Charlotte at 3:55 p.m. ET. The team eventually boarded a new plane that took off just after 10 p.m. ET and landed at 11:27 p.m. ET.

    Before switching planes, the Bucs were on the tarmac for more than five hours, the source said. They held team meetings at the airport and ate a meal there, but it was in an area of the airport for chartered planes with restricted access.

    The team scattered about the building and went outdoors to accommodate social distancing.

    Tampa Bay is set to play the Carolina Panthers at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.

    Good info. Hmm.

  • Pandamonious

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    @zovyn said...

    Good info. Hmm.

    Clearly too tired to catch and tackle Davis now.

  • Mayhem

    @Pandamonious said...

    Can anyone point me in the direction of a game where Jones went off and Adams played or didn’t get hurt early on? By going off, I don’t mean 18-22 points. I mean justifying a 7K tag and getting 28+.

    While there does appear to be something to this, I would note that Jones’ touches actually don’t increase with Adams out, he’s just doing more with them. I think the point of emphasis here is how Adams’ presence impacts the likelihood they pass rather than run it from inside the 5.

  • bignish

    @BIF said...

    How many free squares in the last 2 years have even hit 3x ?

    When I hear “free square”, all I hear is “don’t play that guy even if he was free!”

    Good luck winning a tournament if you don’t play Mike Davis tomorrow. It doesn’t even matter what he does, its about what he gets you for the rest of your lineup. This is a guy who projects for 4x his salary and you’ll be lapped by the rest of the field if either he beats his projection or the other high priced WRs he lets you get in go off and your players don’t.

    Its just a math thing man, a 20 touch RB is priced like a backup.

  • theIrrigator

    @bignish said...

    Good luck winning a tournament if you don’t play Mike Davis tomorrow. It doesn’t even matter what he does, its about what he gets you for the rest of your lineup. This is a guy who projects for 4x his salary and you’ll be lapped by the rest of the field if either he beats his projection or the other high priced WRs he lets you get in go off and your players don’t.

    Its just a math thing man, a 20 touch RB is priced like a backup.

    So if he gets 10 fpts you will still win GPP? What if a 5k RB gets 20?

  • rjschick92

    Mike Davis is not the only value RB you can rotate in.

    McKinnon, Bernard, Duke

    Will have some Davis but no such thing as a free square – see chalk Mattison week. In the last 2 games before CMC came back, Davis wasn’t exactly doing so hot.

  • JTAx33

    @rjschick92 said...

    Mike Davis is not the only value RB you can rotate in.

    McKinnon, Bernard, Duke

    Will have some Davis but no such thing as a free square – see chalk Mattison week. In the last 2 games before CMC came back, Davis wasn’t exactly doing so hot.

    Mattison was also 6800 as opposed to minimum 4K. You don’t have to play him in GPP but finding reasons not to play a 4K 20-touch running back might be overthinking it

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