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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/12
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, 11/15
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at NY Giants ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -6.5 ) at Carolina ( 6.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3.5 ) at Detroit ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Cleveland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 54
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 14 ) at Green Bay ( -14 ) —- T: 53
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50
    4:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2 ) at Arizona ( -2 ) —- T: 54.5
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( -4.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( 1 ) at LA Rams ( -1 ) —- T: 55.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 9 ) at Pittsburgh ( -9 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( -6.5 ) at New England ( 6.5 ) —- T: 41.5

    Monday, 11/16
    8:15 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2.5 ) at Chicago ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Randallus

    @wolverinezack said...

    James Robinson and Antonio Gibson appear to be in smash spots, only thing is trusting them to actually get the usage.

    Robinson might be safer-ish though how much of last week was a result of Washington falling behind early and McKissic getting all the dump-offs out of the backfield. As long as Washington doesn’t fall behind early to Detroit, you gotta think he should get the usage.

    CMac being out would be great as you can eat the chalk with Mike Davis for value at least.

    That’s my issue with both of those. Robinson’s touches on the ground are nice, but his lack of involvement in the passing game with Luton at the helm concerns me, especially in a close game. I just don’t have the trust in him to get the touches needed, especially when playing from behind against the Packers who are a 14 point favorite IIRC.

    Gibson, similar issue. With Kyle Allen likely out, I don’t have faith in Smith enough to keep it close in the first half. I think the Lions pull ahead and McKissic is overly used on passing snaps again. McKissic got 83% of the snaps in week 9 with Gibson at 46%.

    The only 5 RBs I’m comfortable with to some extent (in order):

    1. CMC If he plays
    2. Aaron Jones
    3. Miles Sanders if he plays
    4. Chris Carson if he plays
    5. Chase Edmonds

    EDIT I should add McKissic as someone I’m delving deeper into for this week as well.

  • mike42

    @superjon said...

    Also mentioned it in yesterday’s thread but Tua vs Herbert will be interesting. Battle of the 1st rounders.

    I know you are not supposed to overreact to one game, but I think TUA is the real deal and he gets to play against LAC’s D. When teams lose a bunch of heartbreakers in a row, they tend to get their ass kicked next time out. I think MIA blows them out, too bad they don’t have a playable RB.

  • mike42

    @Lbb11 said...

    Lot of good stacks spots with tough run back options/non-competitive game scripts: Rodgers-Adams; Brees-MT; Goff-Kupp-Woods (this game looks like it should slow down as all Rams games have, but if Goff is forced to throw, it’s a great spot). Arizona-Buffalo and Houston-Browns look like the early best bets to stack. Gibson in an absolute smash spot at his price if they just throw McKissic in the trash (which they won’t).

    Did Gibson get benched or touches taken away for fumbling and that’s why JD got all those tgts? Or was it because it they were behind by a bunch of scores for most of the game?

  • Randallus

    @mike42 said...

    Did Gibson get benched or touches taken away for fumbling and that’s why JD got all those tgts? Or was it because it they were behind by a bunch of scores for most of the game?

    The latter is my guess. I can’t say for sure, but most of the season, McKissic has been the preferred back on passing downs and I believe McKissic also has the higher average snap share %.

    Makes sense to some extent. Occasionally, you’ll see rookies take less snaps in the passing game to the more experienced running back on the roster.

  • infantryboys

    @mike42 said...

    Did Gibson get benched or touches taken away for fumbling and that’s why JD got all those tgts? Or was it because it they were behind by a bunch of scores for most of the game?

    I was reading somewhere that JD is a much better pass blocker and the PFF ratings weren’t even close.

  • realphipps

    Trying to refine my approach for this week. Changing the weight I put on the data. I’d really like to hear some opinions on a general strategy question…

    How do you incorporate ADOT into your research and player selections? More specifically, team defense ADOT?

  • BIF

    @Randallus said...

    CMC’s availability will dictate several of my lineups.

    Last week, only two RBs broke 20 FP. I don’t like many RBs this week either.

    Running Back output last week was hilarious – the top 5 RBs on DK were:

    1. Dalvin Cook 42.20 points
    2. McCaffrey 37.10 points
    3. McKissic 17.20 points
    4. Ballage 16.40 points
    5. Duke Johnson 16.30 points

    If you didn’t play Cook or CMC, your next best RB1 options on the Sunday main slate were James Robinson 15.90 and Wayne Gallman 14.70 points.

    Cook and CMC could have been $12,000 each and still been worth it when you look how bad everyone else did this pst week.

  • Lbb11

    @Randallus said...

    That’s my issue with both of those. Robinson’s touches on the ground are nice, but his lack of involvement in the passing game with Luton at the helm concerns me, especially in a close game. I just don’t have the trust in him to get the touches needed, especially when playing from behind against the Packers who are a 14 point favorite IIRC.

    Gibson, similar issue. With Kyle Allen likely out, I don’t have faith in Smith enough to keep it close in the first half. I think the Lions pull ahead and McKissic is overly used on passing snaps again. McKissic got 83% of the snaps in week 9 with Gibson at 46%.

    The only 5 RBs I’m comfortable with to some extent (in order):

    1. CMC If he plays
    2. Aaron Jones
    3. Miles Sanders if he plays
    4. Chris Carson if he plays
    5. Chase Edmonds

    EDIT I should add McKissic as someone I’m delving deeper into for this week as well.

    I agree with you on Robinson. I wonder if they make a concerted effort to get him a little more involved in the passing game this week since that tool makes the offense so much more dangerous and he is good at it. Speculating that they do that – even give him 4-5 looks through the air – could make him a good larger field GPP play or a bring back in a Rodgers stack.

    The Lions don’t press the gas when they’re ahead so Gibson should be viable throughout and they are likely to lean on him early so Smith isn’t forced to throw 40 times again. Sanders should be overlooked off the injury; I like him too.

  • beare

    chubb not in top 5 vs houstons crappy run d?

  • dcheco

    @beare said...

    chubb not in top 5 vs houstons crappy run d?

    I’d like to think he is.

  • jdtrey

    @beare said...

    chubb not in top 5 vs houstons crappy run d?

    I’m keeping a close eye on Wyatt Teller’s status this week – he’s the highest graded (PFF) guard in the league and has been out since week 5 against the Colts. If he’s back in, fire up Chubb – if not I’d tread lightly as that line is nowhere near the same without Teller.

  • dcheco

    How do you guys configure your optimizers? I’ve literally never used one before. I mostly play cash and hand make my tournament rosters which are usually single entry and 3 max tournaments.

    I’d like to dip my toes in mass multi entries but this is like trying to learn Chinese. I’m using the optimizer at DFSforecast because it’s free. How do you guys figure out what you want your exposures to be? How many times do you run the optimizer before you settle on let’s say 20 unique lineups to use in a tourny?

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #31

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Randallus said...

    The only 5 RBs I’m comfortable with to some extent (in order):

    1. CMC If he plays
    2. Aaron Jones
    3. Miles Sanders if he plays
    4. Chris Carson if he plays
    5. Chase Edmonds

    3 of the 5 running backs you are comfortable with are questionable to play?

  • Lbb11

    @dcheco said...

    How do you guys configure your optimizers? I’ve literally never used one before. I mostly play cash and hand make my tournament rosters which are usually single entry and 3 max tournaments.

    I’d like to dip my toes in mass multi entries but this is like trying to learn Chinese. I’m using the optimizer at DFSforecast because it’s free. How do you guys figure out what you want your exposures to be? How many times do you run the optimizer before you settle on let’s say 20 unique lineups to use in a tourny?

    I only build 20-30 lineups in the multi-entry. I look at projected ownership and increase or decrease the percentages equivalent to my ranking for the player. For the 4-8 players I really like that week, I will go wayyy overweight. I then use the lineup builder to give me ideas about constructions I may not have thought of, but I don’t let it dictates my lineups at 20-30. Maybe one day, if I move up to 50+, but not at the level you are talking about.

  • beare

    carson cmc sanders all questionable

  • beare

    jones chubb robinson gibson edmonds my top plays

  • Randallus

    @theIrrigator said...

    3 of the 5 running backs you are comfortable with are questionable to play?

    Lol that’s how bad I think the field is right now. 😂

  • Randallus

    If Carson plays, I think he’ll be the highest scoring RB on this slate (if CMC is out).

    Good matchup, effective in the passing game, and is one of the only 6k+ RBs this week to at least meet 3x their value on 50% or more of their games. 4/5 games, he’s done that (he got hurt in the 6th game I believe, so I’m not counting it unless someone corrects me).

  • Randallus

    @BIF said...

    Running Back output last week was hilarious – the top 5 RBs on DK were:

    1. Dalvin Cook 42.20 points
    2. McCaffrey 37.10 points
    3. McKissic 17.20 points
    4. Ballage 16.40 points
    5. Duke Johnson 16.30 points

    If you didn’t play Cook or CMC, your next best RB1 options on the Sunday main slate were James Robinson 15.90 and Wayne Gallman 14.70 points.

    Cook and CMC could have been $12,000 each and still been worth it when you look how bad everyone else did this pst week.

    Right?! Horrendous week. I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in this week either. I think we see max 5 RBs over 20 FP with the o/u at 3 RBs.

    There are too many in the “heavy question marks” column for me right now. This is just my opinion, of course. How you feeling about RB this week, BIF?

  • ELopez432

    Which optimizers do you guys recommend?

  • BIF

    @Randallus said...

    There are too many in the “heavy question marks” column for me right now. This is just my opinion, of course. How you feeling about RB this week, BIF?

    I don’t even think about a player pool until Friday night – anything before that is mostly wasted time with all the injury statuses up in the air plus I’m usually more focused on golf lineups and The Thursday Showdowns until then

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #31

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Randallus said...

    Lol that’s how bad I think the field is right now. 😂

    Yeah a lot of question marks right now

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #31

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @beare said...

    chubb not in top 5 vs houstons crappy run d?

    No, Hunt will smash if Chubb is back. That’s the way DFS works.

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #31

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @ELopez432 said...

    Which optimizers do you guys recommend?

    RG

  • 808state

    Conner against the Bengals is also a good matchup. Didn’t work out last week against Dallas, but it might be a good week to go back to him.

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