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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/12
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, 11/15
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at NY Giants ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -6.5 ) at Carolina ( 6.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3.5 ) at Detroit ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Cleveland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 54
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 14 ) at Green Bay ( -14 ) —- T: 53
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50
    4:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2 ) at Arizona ( -2 ) —- T: 54.5
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( -4.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( 1 ) at LA Rams ( -1 ) —- T: 55.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 9 ) at Pittsburgh ( -9 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( -6.5 ) at New England ( 6.5 ) —- T: 41.5

    Monday, 11/16
    8:15 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2.5 ) at Chicago ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • getlucky4

    Steelers d and Connor could be the nuts. It doesn’t hurt that they just screwed everyone the week before either. I haven’t looked at projections at all but I hope theirs suck.

  • mike42

    @Lbb11 said...

    The Lions don’t press the gas when they’re ahead so Gibson should be viable throughout and they are likely to lean on him early so Smith isn’t forced to throw 40 times again. Sanders should be overlooked off the injury; I like him too.

    Be careful with that logic. First and foremost, Wash is a better team than DET with a better coach, coming off of a loss in which I’d argue had more to do with the randomness of turnovers than anything else. A. Smith doesn’t normally throw any picks, let alone 3 of them. 2 of which were to RB’s and both had something (or everything) to do with the RB. A rookie RB also fumbled in NYG territory which also probably doesn’t repeat against a much softer DET D. Wash outgained them by 50 yds, and honestly, should have won.

    On the other hand, you have DET who just got lost by getting gutted by the run, not necessarily a new thing. They have never won 3 in a row under Patricia, show no signs of improvement in year 3, and lost their best offensive player (Golliday) the week before. Patricia, who has never seemed like a players coach, and is definitively on the hot seat, may have lost his team. They have gotten blown out 2 weeks in a row and it wouldn’t surprise me if they lose again, maybe by a lot. Normally I look for bounce back spots and this year teams coming off of a loss are outperforming vegas while teams coming off of a win are underperforming Vegas, but you have to spot bad teams whose coach isn’t liked by his players and is probably out of the door at seasons end. DET fits that profile to a T.

    My best guess is A. Smith and Wash play error-free and control this game with their talented D. Gibson is a sneaky good GPP play that isn’t that sneaky given how poor DET’s run D is. I definitely don’t think you can assume DET plays with a comfortable lead Vs anybody at this point.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @mike42 said...

    I definitely don’t think you can assume DET plays with a comfortable lead Vs anybody at this point.

    This!!!

    I hated the Patricia hire from day 1!!! And this offseason (starting near the end of last season) was the worst. He cleared house of some of DET’s best players and brought over washed Pats that have done nothing. I hope both him and Quinn are gone pretty much immediately. Their ineptitude has been extraordinary and has only gotten worse over the years. AT this point I’d be surprised if ol Patricia gets another D coordinator gig.

  • Randallus

    @mike42 said...

    My best guess is A. Smith and Wash play error-free and control this game with their talented D. Gibson is a sneaky good GPP play that isn’t that sneaky given how poor DET’s run D is. I definitely don’t think you can assume DET plays with a comfortable lead Vs anybody at this point.

    Yeah, you bring up some great points. I’m going to look into it further today.

  • Lbb11

    @mike42 said...

    Be careful with that logic. First and foremost, Wash is a better team than DET with a better coach, coming off of a loss in which I’d argue had more to do with the randomness of turnovers than anything else. A. Smith doesn’t normally throw any picks, let alone 3 of them. 2 of which were to RB’s and both had something (or everything) to do with the RB. A rookie RB also fumbled in NYG territory which also probably doesn’t repeat against a much softer DET D. Wash outgained them by 50 yds, and honestly, should have won.

    On the other hand, you have DET who just got lost by getting gutted by the run, not necessarily a new thing. They have never won 3 in a row under Patricia, show no signs of improvement in year 3, and lost their best offensive player (Golliday) the week before. Patricia, who has never seemed like a players coach, and is definitively on the hot seat, may have lost his team. They have gotten blown out 2 weeks in a row and it wouldn’t surprise me if they lose again, maybe by a lot. Normally I look for bounce back spots and this year teams coming off of a loss are outperforming vegas while teams coming off of a win are underperforming Vegas, but you have to spot bad teams whose coach isn’t liked by his players and is probably out of the door at seasons end. DET fits that profile to a T.

    My best guess is A. Smith and Wash play error-free and control this game with their talented D. Gibson is a sneaky good GPP play that isn’t that sneaky given how poor DET’s run D is. I definitely don’t think you can assume DET plays with a comfortable lead Vs anybody at this point.

    I think we’re saying the same thing. And I think Gibson is owned somewhere in the 15-20 percent range so won’t be that sneaky.

  • DarthPasta

    CMC out.

  • Bnett2210

    I know waiting on Miles Sanders news, definitely like him but what about Sterling Shepherd for 5K or Fulgham on the other side?? Shepherd I know hasn’t exploded yet, but he’s been pretty consistent and think a big game for him at some point is coming. If Sanders is out, does Scott become solid at 6K or like better options around his price or higher??

    It’s look like Ben will play this week, but I still wouldn’t write off Conner being a decent play. As for the WRs it looks like Juju has taken that Hines Ward role that us Steelers fans used to love and know we can count on in the big moments. On the other side, while the defense is good and should be getting consistent pressure on Burrow with that line being bad for them, I think that one of the Bengals WRs has a solid game. I was leaning Boyd, but if Hilton is back and him and Sutton are both good to go they are solid CB’s in the slot. I’m kind of leaning toward Aj being the one that has the better game, I think Higgins will be matched up mostly on Nelson if I had to guess and Nelson don’t get a lot of recognition outside of Steelers fans, but he is solid and can take a WR out the game. I love Haden and what he’s done for us in Pitt, but if he’s on AJ I just think that is where they will go most of the time on the outside and has success.

    Was a chart I saw that showed this weeks QBs and their success on throwing where the defense allows them to throw to in the matchup this week, the top defense similarity scores and the top 5 were:

    1. Goff 99.9
    2. Brady 98.6
    3. Daniel Jones 95.6
    4. Burrow 92.1
    5. Cam 90.2

    It kind of points to Goff being the type of play a lot thought he could be this week in his matchup. The chart is matchup based, and that’s another reason why I think Burrow to Aj could end up being a decent spot against our Steelers D.

  • Bnett2210

    Since I posted the top 5 this week in matchup for week 10 Qb vs defense similarity score I’ll just post more of them so more in depth. The higher the score the better the QB is in this matchup at taking what that defense gives them:

    1. Goff 99.9
    2. Brady 98.6
    3. Daniel Jones 95.6
    4. Joe Burrow 92. 1
    5. Cam Newton 90.2
    6. Carr 88.2
    7. Lock 85.0
    8. Rivers 81.2
    9. Watson 80.7
    10. Teddy B 80.0
    11. Foles 77.0
    12. Tannehill 69.3
    13. Wentz 68.4
    14. Ben 66.5
    15. Baker 60.7
    16. Brees 49.3
    17. Kyler 47.7
    18. Russ 46.2
    19. Allen 43.4
    20. Cousins 33.9
    21. Herbert 27.5
    22. Lamar 18.8
    23. Mullens 16.4

    Like said above Goff is already in a great matchup but the defense similarities and his tendency to go where the D let’s him, shows he may be even a better play than originally thought. It’s just trusting Goff (which don’t seem to workout much for me usually)

  • Lbb11

    @Bnett2210 said...

    Since I posted the top 5 this week in matchup for week 10 Qb vs defense similarity score I’ll just post more of them so more in depth. The higher the score the better the QB is in this matchup at taking what that defense gives them:

    1. Goff 99.9
    2. Brady 98.6
    3. Daniel Jones 95.6
    4. Joe Burrow 92. 1
    5. Cam Newton 90.2
    6. Carr 88.2
    7. Lock 85.0
    8. Rivers 81.2
    9. Watson 80.7
    10. Teddy B 80.0
    11. Foles 77.0
    12. Tannehill 69.3
    13. Wentz 68.4
    14. Ben 66.5
    15. Baker 60.7
    16. Brees 49.3
    17. Kyler 47.7
    18. Russ 46.2
    19. Allen 43.4
    20. Cousins 33.9
    21. Herbert 27.5
    22. Lamar 18.8
    23. Mullens 16.4

    Like said above Goff is already in a great matchup but the defense similarities and his tendency to go where the D let’s him, shows he may be even a better play than originally thought. It’s just trusting Goff (which don’t seem to workout much for me usually)

    I will be overweight Goff, Kyler (who is matchup proof and seemingly has higher upside when Hopkins is locked up – which he may be this week – because he will have to do it more himself) and Watson. Lock looks good for the price. I think Mullens is sneaky but not sure how much exposure I will have because I just like the other 4 so much. I expect to have a lot of Woods and Kupp on non-Goff teams.

  • Bnett2210

    @Lbb11 said...

    I will be overweight Goff, Kyler (who is matchup proof and seemingly has higher upside when Hopkins is locked up – which he may be this week – because he will have to do it more himself) and Watson. Lock looks good for the price. I think Mullens is sneaky but not sure how much exposure I will have because I just like the other 4 so much. I expect to have a lot of Woods and Kupp on non-Goff teams.

    I agree with all of what you said, but I’m not on the Mullens sneaky just yet (I’ve looked into it) but if the Saints D comes out to play like they did against TB, then that would be bad day for Mullens I believe. I think Alex Smith for the price and matchup could end up providing decent value as well. I’m also on Herbert and Tua matchup as well, but I’m probably going to have a lot of Goff, Kyler and Watson as you mentioned, but I do like the Herbert/Tua potential shootout

  • dcheco

    @DarthPasta said...

    CMC out.

    Davis is a free square this week at only $4k

  • Lbb11

    @Bnett2210 said...

    I agree with all of what you said, but I’m not on the Mullens sneaky just yet (I’ve looked into it) but if the Saints D comes out to play like they did against TB, then that would be bad day for Mullens I believe. I think Alex Smith for the price and matchup could end up providing decent value as well. I’m also on Herbert and Tua matchup as well, but I’m probably going to have a lot of Goff, Kyler and Watson as you mentioned, but I do like the Herbert/Tua potential shootout

    I’m not on the Chargers game at this point, but it’s still early in the week. Both running games are in shambles and I just think there are better spots.

  • ViewFromTheCouch

    I like John Brown this week.

    A couple of weeks ago, DK Metcalf was neutralised by Patrick Peterson, and Lockett duly went nuts.

    If (!) PP locks onto Diggs this week, Brown should be the beneficiary.

    He looked just fine last week on his return from injury – 8/99 and only one yard shy of a both a TD and the 100 yd bonus.

    Looks a bargain to me at 5.3 on DK.

  • TopDawgs07

    @BIF said...

    Running Back output last week was hilarious – the top 5 RBs on DK were:

    1. Dalvin Cook 42.20 points
    2. McCaffrey 37.10 points
    3. McKissic 17.20 points
    4. Ballage 16.40 points
    5. Duke Johnson 16.30 points

    If you didn’t play Cook or CMC, your next best RB1 options on the Sunday main slate were James Robinson 15.90 and Wayne Gallman 14.70 points.

    Cook and CMC could have been $12,000 each and still been worth it when you look how bad everyone else did this pst week.

    It was a bit of a demoralizing week due to this. Many nice LUs were drawing dead if you didn’t have Cook or CMC in them. That doesn’t seem to happen often, hoping this week is better.

  • infantryboys

    @dcheco said...

    Davis is a free square this week at only $4k

    Interestingly, he’s $6.7K on the Thu-Mon slate. Guess they had time to react to the CMC news for that slate.

  • Lbb11

    @dcheco said...

    Davis is a free square this week at only $4k

    He’s a free square and you definitely want some or max exposure to him in single entries/3 max, but against Bucs D he’s very likely to go somewhere between 12-15 FFP and creates certain lineup constructions so definitely a good spot to go underweight in multi-entries.

  • Njsum1

    @Bnett2210 said...

    I agree with all of what you said, but I’m not on the Mullens sneaky just yet (I’ve looked into it) but if the Saints D comes out to play like they did against TB, then that would be bad day for Mullens I believe. I think Alex Smith for the price and matchup could end up providing decent value as well. I’m also on Herbert and Tua matchup as well, but I’m probably going to have a lot of Goff, Kyler and Watson as you mentioned, but I do like the Herbert/Tua potential shootout

    Edit

  • Njsum1

    @Lbb11 said...

    He’s a free square and you definitely want some or max exposure to him in single entries/3 max, but against Bucs D he’s very likely to go somewhere between 12-15 FFP and creates certain lineup constructions so definitely a good spot to go underweight in multi-entries.

    Davis a free square as long as he performs well. If he scores 16 DK or more on Sunday, everyone will say free square, if not they’ll say bad chalk.
    This TB Def shuts down running backs. And even toward the end of his tenure as CMAC’s backup he was slipping.
    I’m not saying he’s a bad play, last game versus TB, he got there on pass volume alone, with CMC playing, yet this Tampa team likely comes out angry and takes it out on Carolina.
    Mike Davis also struggled versus better defenses. To me he’s a 50/50 play. Half the time he gets like 14-20+DK the other half he gets like 7-12 🤷‍♂️

  • theIrrigator

    • 904

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Njsum1 said...

    Davis a free square as long as he performs well.

    Makes sense. Lol

    Everyone will say free square all week and then when he fails you will see people posting how he was the easiest fade in the world. My first thought when I saw McCaffrey ruled out was to be way underweight. If he ends up around 8 points like weeks 7-8 you are looking good. You gotta think he gets in the 15-20 point range though

  • Lbb11

    @Njsum1 said...

    Davis a free square as long as he performs well. If he scores 16 DK or more on Sunday, everyone will say free square, if not they’ll say bad chalk.
    This TB Def shuts down running backs. And even toward the end of his tenure as CMAC’s backup he was slipping.
    I’m not saying he’s a bad play, last game versus TB, he got there on pass volume alone, with CMC playing, yet this Tampa team likely comes out angry and takes it out on Carolina.
    Mike Davis also struggled versus better defenses. To me he’s a 50/50 play. Half the time he gets like 14-20+DK the other half he gets like 7-12 🤷‍♂️

    Totally agree. But this is a min priced RB who is going to get all the touches and catches passes. He’s almost guaranteed 3X. It’s hard to not auto lock him in single entries and 1 or 2 teams in 3 max/5 max entries. Like I said, I am going under in the larger field tourneys.

  • Bnett2210

    @Njsum1 said...

    Davis a free square as long as he performs well. If he scores 16 DK or more on Sunday, everyone will say free square, if not they’ll say bad chalk.
    This TB Def shuts down running backs. And even toward the end of his tenure as CMAC’s backup he was slipping.
    I’m not saying he’s a bad play, last game versus TB, he got there on pass volume alone, with CMC playing, yet this Tampa team likely comes out angry and takes it out on Carolina.
    Mike Davis also struggled versus better defenses. To me he’s a 50/50 play. Half the time he gets like 14-20+DK the other half he gets like 7-12 🤷‍♂️

    I was having the same exact thoughts about him, basically the same thoughts I was having if Pollard was going to be without Zeke at 4K last week. Obviously the passing volume can get him there, but I agree that I think TB is going to take there anger and frustration out on Carolina, in a way I guess if they do that then Davis could get there in garbage time or playing catch-up, but TB could also have the game plan to make It be Teddy that has to win the game. They was likely thinking before the injury news that CMC was out, that he was going to play so they was scheming for that and going to try and take CMC or Davis out of the game.

    Obviously at 4K he can still get there and in cash you’re gonna have to eat that chalk, but in large field tourneys I think I will be pretty underweight to Davis.

  • fitz2k2

    Anyone have cb vs wr sheet from espn?

  • squidkill

    regarding davis
    cash games hes a lock
    GPP’s def can fade

  • Njsum1

    @theIrrigator said...

    Makes sense. Lol

    ‘twas a simple thought but it made sense to me…🤷‍♂️ Lol

  • Njsum1

    @squidkill said...

    regarding davis
    cash games hes a lock
    GPP’s def can fade

    Took me 2 paragraphs to say it, but yeah this is what I meant…haha

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