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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/12
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, 11/15
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at NY Giants ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -6.5 ) at Carolina ( 6.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3.5 ) at Detroit ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Cleveland ( -2.5 ) —- T: 54
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 14 ) at Green Bay ( -14 ) —- T: 53
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: 50
    4:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2 ) at Arizona ( -2 ) —- T: 54.5
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 4.5 ) at Las Vegas ( -4.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( 1 ) at LA Rams ( -1 ) —- T: 55.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 9 ) at Pittsburgh ( -9 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( -6.5 ) at New England ( 6.5 ) —- T: 41.5

    Monday, 11/16
    8:15 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2.5 ) at Chicago ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • superjon

    @Dfspacman said...

    Bengals down four cornerbacks

    Is this going to be like the time the Bengals were down their entire offensive line?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    I’m with BIF on Davis. TB has limited CMC and been one of the best defenses against pass catching RBs for the past two seasons. Davis is cheap, but I think he’s bad chalk.

    TB has given up the 3rd most receptions and 6th most receiving yards to RB’s this year.

    Totally open to an under approach on Davis, BUT they have not been “one of the best” this year, considering those numbers. Even if they’re from a non-statistical showing, it just more so shows their secondary is funneling those targets that way or game script it causing it. Those possibilities fit here.

  • Randallus

    @Pandamonious said...

    TB has given up the 3rd most receptions and 6th most receiving yards to RB’s this year.

    Totally open to an under approach on Davis, BUT they have not been “one of the best” this year, considering those numbers. Even if they’re from a non-statistical showing, it just more so shows their secondary is funneling those targets that way or game script it causing it. Those possibilities fit here.

    This. This is why I can’t fade Davis. The best opening teams are finding against TB is check downs to the RB on screen passes. Add in the fact that Mike Davis would have to be abysmal on Sunday to not make 3x value and I’m struggling to fade him.

    He’s 4K. 3 receptions for 30 yards or a TD and he’s halfway there.

    EDIT I’m projecting him at 15 points right now. If he gets that, the savings I get will more than make up for it.

    I should also note that I only have 7 RBs in my current pool. Taking one out is scary. 😂

  • BIF

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    This might be my favorite game of the slate. Miami offense looked pretty good last week, Bosa’s out and everyone’s been scoring vs the Chargers lately. I was a wee bit worried about a tough Dolphins defense but LB Kyle Van Noy and DT Christian Wilkins (COVID) won’t play in Week 10 against the Chargers. Van Noy, who has the most snaps among all of Miami’s linebackers this year, and Wilkins, who leads the team in run stops up the middle, are big absences for the Miami defense. With the only wind a balmy tropical breeze, I think the only thing that can keep the scoring down is the Charger medical staff.

    I’m with ya – not sure if it’s my favorite game (it’s up there though) but I liked it before the injury news and had already bet the Over back on Monday

  • BIF

    @Pandamonious said...

    TB has given up the 3rd most receptions and 6th most receiving yards to RB’s this year.

    Totally open to an under approach on Davis, BUT they have not been “one of the best” this year, considering those numbers. Even if they’re from a non-statistical showing, it just more so shows their secondary is funneling those targets that way or game script it causing it. Those possibilities fit here.

    Stats are a bit misleading as they’ve played NO (Kamara) twice and some big time check down teams (Bears, Chargers before they turned the QB loose, Packers and the already talked about first matchup vs Carolina).

    Even with that, only 2 receiving TD allowed by RBs and one was Week 1 vs Kamara – the other was Dion Lewis on MNF a couple weeks ago.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Randallus said...

    This. This is why I can’t fade Davis. The best opening teams are finding against TB is check downs to the RB on screen passes. Add in the fact that Mike Davis would have to be abysmal on Sunday to not make 3x value and I’m struggling to fade him.

    He’s 4K. 3 receptions for 30 yards or a TD and he’s halfway there.

    EDIT I’m projecting him at 15 points right now. If he gets that, the savings I get will more than make up for it.

    I should also note that I only have 7 RBs in my current pool. Taking one out is scary. 😂

    Davis probably does “fine.” As in, finishing around 13-16 DK points, with lesser likelihood of 7-12 or 17-22 type returns. The thing is, assuming he finishes in that realistic 13-16 range, his viability is completely dependent on other plays. Where his ownership will be (potentially over 50%) he’s already more likely than not to be in the winning line up(s), because more than half the field will have him. So, ultimately a 13-16 day from Davis being good or bad, will really be decided by what he gets you more so than Davis himself. Or also what more obscure, less chalk builds get you.

    Clearly the obvious move will be Davis-Adams and sometimes Diggs. If Adams disappoints, really 20-25 is a big disappointment at his price, a measly 13-16 from Davis is not going to be good enough. 33-41 for 13K can be gotten elsewhere with ease, and certainly passed.

    Basically what I’m saying is, if you end up “needing” Adams and or Murray and or Diggs, these more expensive plays, because they pop off for ceiling games a “meh” performance from Davis becomes much more acceptable and likely to fall in winning line ups, than if these more expensive plays disappoint.

  • BIF

    @Pandamonious said...

    Davis probably does “fine.” As in, finishing around 13-16 DK points, with lesser likelihood of 7-12 or 17-22 type returns. The thing is, assuming he finishes in that realistic 13-16 range, his viability is completely dependent on other plays. Where his ownership will be (potentially over 50%) he’s already more likely than not to be in the winning line up(s), because more than half the field will have him. So, ultimately a 13-16 day from Davis being good or bad, will really be decided by what he gets you more so than Davis himself. Or also what more obscure, less chalk builds get you.

    Clearly the obvious move will be Davis-Adams and sometimes Diggs. If Adams disappoints, really 20-25 is a big disappointment at his price, a measly 13-16 from Davis is not going to be good enough. 33-41 for 13K can be gotten elsewhere with ease, and certainly passed.

    Basically what I’m saying is, if you end up “needing” Adams and or Murray and or Diggs, these more expensive plays, because they pop off for ceiling games a “meh” performance from Davis because much more acceptable and likely to fall in winning line ups, than if these more expensive plays disappoint.

    That’s kind of my thinking too – playing Davis almost draws you into the high price WRs and sure for cash that makes sense but for GPP, I’d rather take my shots with a totally different type of build – mostly balanced.

  • shadowchap1978

    Any takers on a Smith/Mclurin stack against the lions… word is they have given up on Patricia here in Detroit. The lion’s always allow a comeback story like this to make Alex an MVP… hopefully Gibson doesn’t take all the TD’s

  • electrichaz3

    In gpp generally I like to be half of chalk ownership. For example I’ll be 7-10% Murray. I also love certain Wentz this week so he is projected around 3% and I’ll be overweight on my contrarian plays against the field. Probably 7-10%

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @shadowchap1978 said...

    Any takers on a Smith/Mclurin stack against the lions… word is they have given up on Patricia here in Detroit. The lion’s always allow a comeback story like this to make Alex an MVP… hopefully Gibson doesn’t take all the TD’s

    IF the Lions have given up (definitely possible), don’t you just want Gibson? Why go for the low ceiling QB?

  • Derfturf

    Is anyone fading HOU/CLE passing game all together? Recent qb rankings still have Watson rank 6th or do they just not look at weather? I liked this game stack before the weather report but wonder if Watson can still go off at low ownership.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    Davis probably does “fine.” As in, finishing around 13-16 DK points

    Yes, this is his likely outcome. For 4k, he’s neither fade or overweight. I’ll take my 25-30% in GPP’s and move on.

    Think I might be more inclined to play the Dutchess’s husband 😉

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    Yes, this is his likely outcome. For 4k, he’s neither fade or overweight. I’ll take my 25-30% in GPP’s and move on.

    Think I might be more inclined to play the Dutchess’s husband 😉

    Naked Brady w/ Davis might not be a bad leverage move on Davis ownership.

  • infantryboys

    @Derfturf said...

    Is anyone fading HOU/CLE passing game all together? Recent qb rankings still have Watson rank 6th or do they just not look at weather? I liked this game stack before the weather report but wonder if Watson can still go off at low ownership.

    I’m fading it, as well as the GB/Jax passing game. Of course, I’m primarily a cash game player and I only do 2 3-entry-max contests for a total of 6 GPP LUs. If I MMEd I’d probably have some exposure but I’d be underweight.

  • mnstone14

    @BIF said...

    3 of those catches (and 37 yards) were in last 2 minutes of game as Bucs were up 14 and playing prevent on deep passes.

    I’ll stick with my fade but I hope he is 50%

    so you think carolina will be playing with the lead? i get that in gpps you can fade him just to be different, bit hes going to hit value and it may even be likely he gets to 4x. in no way is he a bad play. again, i get the idea of just fading him because he’ll be massively owned, i dont get trying to convince people he wont be productive (in a dfs sense).

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    Naked Brady w/ Davis might not be a bad leverage move on Davis ownership.

    I don’t think Gisele is a dutchess.

    The dutchess’s husband I was referring to….would be the Duke

  • ViewFromTheCouch

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Where’s everyone going for TE this week…? Engram is $4500 and has 29 targets in last 3 games. Ebron has been solid but is TD dependent. Hooper $3900 and getting 6-10 targets last 3 games.

    Eagles are 32nd v TEs this year (missing Malcolm Jenkins much?), so it’s Engram for me.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    I don’t think Gisele is a dutchess.

    The dutchess’s husband I was referring to….would be the Duke

    Ah, OK. That makes more sense.

    Yeah, the weather might help him out a decent bit. Have to see where ownership is. I think he’s unlikely to outscore Davis, but he’s certainly capable under potential circumstances.

  • Dfspacman

    @superjon said...

    Is this going to be like the time the Bengals were down their entire offensive line?

    Lmao, can’t forget that

  • Dfspacman

    @superjon said...

    Is this going to be like the time the Bengals were down their entire offensive line?

    Bengals D now in play lol

  • BIF

    @mnstone14 said...

    so you think carolina will be playing with the lead? i get that in gpps you can fade him just to be different, bit hes going to hit value and it may even be likely he gets to 4x. in no way is he a bad play. again, i get the idea of just fading him because he’ll be massively owned, i dont get trying to convince people he wont be productive (in a dfs sense).

    There are many ways this game can play out where Davis is not successful and there are also paths where he can hit value or exceed.

    I’m going with the former and I also don’t really that him hitting up to the 20 DK points hurts me as there are other builds and backs where I can make that up. If he goes for a 6× 24+ Points then I’ve likely made a mistake.

  • Dmo_Htx

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Where’s everyone going for TE this week…? Engram is $4500 and has 29 targets in last 3 games. Ebron has been solid but is TD dependent. Hooper $3900 and getting 6-10 targets last 3 games.

    I like Akins. Can see him getting a lot of work in the flats with the weather. Watson likes him, he’s cheap, and he gets good yac for a te

  • BlueEdwards

    Hi guys. New to DFS football. Question: if you pair a QB with a WR…i hear that it’s a good idea to take a WR form the other team? Why is that?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @blue said...

    Hi guys. New to DFS football. Question: if you pair a QB with a WR…i hear that it’s a good idea to take a WR form the other team? Why is that?

    Boils down to, if your QB/WR combo is putting up points, then their opponent is likely to also be throwing the ball and potentially be putting up points.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    Ah, OK. That makes more sense.

    Yeah, the weather might help him out a decent bit. Have to see where ownership is. I think he’s unlikely to outscore Davis, but he’s certainly capable under potential circumstances.

    Is he unlikely to outscore davis? He played almost every snap and took all the rb touches after DJ got hurt and his matchup while not amazing is better than Davis’.

    I’m not saying he’s likely to outscore him, just thinking he’s likely to carry less ownership and has a 50/50 chance to outscore Davis. He is also 1k more. I’ll probably have some lineups with both 🤷‍♂️

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