NFL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, November 11th
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( -7 ) at Miami ( 7 ) —- T: 47.5

    Sunday, November 14th
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 9 ) at Pittsburgh ( -9 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -13 ) at NY Jets ( 13 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -9.5 ) at Washington ( 9.5 ) —- T: 51.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 2.5 ) at New England ( -2.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 10.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -10.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 9 ) at Dallas ( -9 ) —- T: 52
    4:05 PM EST : Carolina ( 10 ) at Arizona ( -10 ) —- T: 45
    4:05 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -2.5 ) —- T: 52
    4:25 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 2.5 ) at Denver ( -2.5 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( 5.5 ) at Green Bay ( -5.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    8:20 PM EST : Kansas City ( -2.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 2.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, November 15th
    8:15 PM EST : LA Rams ( -4 ) at San Francisco ( 4 ) —- T: 49.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Agent47

    On the DK main slate, I don’t see a lot under $3,000 that I like this week. The one exception that I do really like is the Titans at $2,600. They were very impressive a couple of days ago in limiting that dangerous Rams offense at SoFi Stadium. Now, they’re at home against a Saints team that will have some combination of Siemian and Hill at QB and has arguably the league’s worst receiving corps. The Titans are 3-point favorites, and their defense boasts the 6th best adjusted sack rate after bringing Stafford down 5 times last week. The Saints are just outside the bottom 10 in sack rate allowed (ranked 19th). Lastly, this game has the second-lowest total of the week. Tennessee and New Orleans are ranked 24th and 21st respectively in situation-neutral pace of play.

    Of the higher-priced defenses, I like the Cardinals the best at $3,700. They’re at home against a Panthers team ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense has the 5th best adjusted sack rate (much better than other big favorites this week like the Steelers, Bucs, and Colts). The Panthers turnover differential on the season is -5, which is the third worst in the league. The last three weeks, the Panthers have scored 3, 19, and 6 points. And two of the defenses they’ve faced in that stretch have had big days (the Giants with 17 in Week 7 and the Patriots with 20 last week).

  • 808state

    Was getting ready to play some Cook in a juicy spot and then some BS pops up. I guess he’ll get to play, but something to monitor.

  • ifthethunder

    @theghostofveebs said...

    except OBJ is a self-absorbed whiney beyotch who throws every QB he’s ever had under the bus, and views himself as a god among men.

    Funny thing about that gif: In ancient Roman times, thumbs down meant ‘swords down.’ The losing gladiator was spared to fight another day.

    In other business, I squandered my $20 milly tickets last week. But I have some $15 ones I’ve been saving. But BALMIA is a $20 showdown Thursday night? Why DK?


    ~

  • squidkill

    @Agent47 said...

    On the DK main slate, I don’t see a lot under $3,000 that I like this week. The one exception that I do really like is the Titans at $2,600. They were very impressive a couple of days ago in limiting that dangerous Rams offense at SoFi Stadium. Now, they’re at home against a Saints team that will have some combination of Siemian and Hill at QB and has arguably the league’s worst receiving corps. The Titans are 3-point favorites, and their defense boasts the 6th best adjusted sack rate after bringing Stafford down 5 times last week. The Saints are just outside the bottom 10 in sack rate allowed (ranked 19th). Lastly, this game has the second-lowest total of the week. Tennessee and New Orleans are ranked 24th and 21st respectively in situation-neutral pace of play.

    Of the higher-priced defenses, I like the Cardinals the best at $3,700. They’re at home against a Panthers team ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense has the 5th best adjusted sack rate (much better than other big favorites this week like the Steelers, Bucs, and Colts). The Panthers turnover differential on the season is -5, which is the third worst in the league. The last three weeks, the Panthers have scored 3, 19, and 6 points. And two of the defenses they’ve faced in that stretch have had big days (the Giants with 17 in Week 7 and the Patriots with 20 last week).

    I appreciate the effort but defense has waaay too much variance to break down in this true form.

    You play the cheap chalk defense in cash and then anybody but the cheap chalk defense in tournaments… Everything else is variance and noise.

  • zeeshan2

    going to stack the LAC/MIN game with either Herbert or Kirk, stacking the Cowboys game with Dak and bring backs, and do we trust Josh Allen again after two sub-par weeks?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @squidkill said...

    I appreciate the effort but defense has waaay too much variance to break down in this true form.

    You play the cheap chalk defense in cash and then anybody but the cheap chalk defense in tournaments… Everything else is variance and noise.

    Last week 9/22(40ish%) of the main slate D’s scored 11 or more DK pts. 7 of them were 2.7 k or less.
    Pick one and move along

  • thenefariousone

    https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/21/NFLDK2021_CS_WRCBchartWeek10cody.pdf?addata=2021=WRCB_chtsht_week10cody_xxx

  • NDNole

    @Agent47 said...

    On the DK main slate, I don’t see a lot under $3,000 that I like this week. The one exception that I do really like is the Titans at $2,600. They were very impressive a couple of days ago in limiting that dangerous Rams offense at SoFi Stadium. Now, they’re at home against a Saints team that will have some combination of Siemian and Hill at QB and has arguably the league’s worst receiving corps. The Titans are 3-point favorites, and their defense boasts the 6th best adjusted sack rate after bringing Stafford down 5 times last week. The Saints are just outside the bottom 10 in sack rate allowed (ranked 19th). Lastly, this game has the second-lowest total of the week. Tennessee and New Orleans are ranked 24th and 21st respectively in situation-neutral pace of play.

    Of the higher-priced defenses, I like the Cardinals the best at $3,700. They’re at home against a Panthers team ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense has the 5th best adjusted sack rate (much better than other big favorites this week like the Steelers, Bucs, and Colts). The Panthers turnover differential on the season is -5, which is the third worst in the league. The last three weeks, the Panthers have scored 3, 19, and 6 points. And two of the defenses they’ve faced in that stretch have had big days (the Giants with 17 in Week 7 and the Patriots with 20 last week).

    I actually like Minn D this week. I think if they can get the lead maybe Chargers have to be predictable. Dart throw I know bt I can see Minn D paying off its price.

  • winnerchickendinner

    If had to guess Freiermunth is going to be pretty popular at TE along with Arnold and Conklin. Like that trio to pay up.

    Also will eat some of the TB passing game chalk Will probably need at least one of the three.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Agent47 said...

    On the DK main slate, I don’t see a lot under $3,000 that I like this week. The one exception that I do really like is the Titans at $2,600. They were very impressive a couple of days ago in limiting that dangerous Rams offense at SoFi Stadium. Now, they’re at home against a Saints team that will have some combination of Siemian and Hill at QB and has arguably the league’s worst receiving corps. The Titans are 3-point favorites, and their defense boasts the 6th best adjusted sack rate after bringing Stafford down 5 times last week. The Saints are just outside the bottom 10 in sack rate allowed (ranked 19th). Lastly, this game has the second-lowest total of the week. Tennessee and New Orleans are ranked 24th and 21st respectively in situation-neutral pace of play.

    Of the higher-priced defenses, I like the Cardinals the best at $3,700. They’re at home against a Panthers team ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense has the 5th best adjusted sack rate (much better than other big favorites this week like the Steelers, Bucs, and Colts). The Panthers turnover differential on the season is -5, which is the third worst in the league. The last three weeks, the Panthers have scored 3, 19, and 6 points. And two of the defenses they’ve faced in that stretch have had big days (the Giants with 17 in Week 7 and the Patriots with 20 last week).

    Also a rested Seahawk D (2.5DK) looks OK especially if Love has to play. And on the other side of the ball vs Arizona, Carolina (2.4K) looks nice even if Kyler, 3 ints in last 2 games played, is in. Darnold is out lol, can only help the Panther D. Not as many short fields to defend

  • CheeseCutter

    Keep an eye on Antonio Brown status. If he’s out again, Tyler Johnson is a cheap #3 (3300 on DK) receiver in the TB offense against Washington.

  • theghostofveebs

    @CheeseCutter said...

    Keep an eye on Antonio Brown status. If he’s out again, Tyler Johnson is a cheap #3 (3300 on DK) receiver in the TB offense against Washington.

    He’s a viable GPP dart, but the numbers play is more likely that the lost targets get routed to some combination of Evans/Godwin plus incremental looks for Brate & Howard…assess the defense in question for scoring versus position to figure out which. To be fair, that assessment might point to WR3 for some defenses (supporting your comment).

  • BIF

    @theghostofveebs said...

    He’s a viable GPP dart, but the numbers play is more likely that the lost targets get routed to some combination of Evans/Godwin plus incremental looks for Brate & Howard…assess the defense in question for scoring versus position to figure out which. To be fair, that assessment might point to WR3 for some defenses (supporting your comment).

    Godwin missed practice – has a foot thing going on; he should play but I feel like they won’t push him and risk further injury so his snap count will be down a little and maybe more if they get out front a couple scores and can pound Lenny/RoJo in 2nd H

    Brown is going to miss as he is still in a walking boot that was supposed to be off a week ago

    Gronk likely misses again as back spasms have not subsided

    Gio was back at practice and should play

    Bucs will be cautious with everyone as it’s about the playoffs and nothing else

  • Agent47

    @squidkill said...

    I appreciate the effort but defense has waaay too much variance to break down in this true form.

    You play the cheap chalk defense in cash and then anybody but the cheap chalk defense in tournaments… Everything else is variance and noise.

    Thank you. I realize there’s lots of variance involved with defense. However, I still like to look at it briefly as part of my research for the week just to see what I can find that might point me in one direction or another. And I like to share what I see just in case it might be of use to someone while they’re building their lineups.

  • Agent47

    For TEs on DK, Noah Fant should be back as the TE1 for the Broncos this week, and he gets a prime matchup at home against the Eagles. The Eagles have given up the most FPPG to TEs (19.6) and the most TDs (eight) this season. This is what they’ve allowed to the TE position over the last 5 games.

    Week 9 – Anderson (4-39-1), Parham (3-39-1), and Cook (4-48-0)
    Week 8 – Hockenson (10-89-0)
    Week 7 – Moreau (6-60-1)
    Week 6 – Howard (6-49-1)
    Week 5 – Tremble (2-12-1)

    On the season, Fant is 2nd among all TEs in offensive snap rate percentage at 85.8% (Higbee is 1st at 87.8%). So between that and his 6.6 targets per game, he should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of this matchup.

    I mentioned Tyler Conklin last week and though he failed to have a big game, he still turned a solid 7 targets into 5 catches for 45 yards. His salary has only gone up $400 but he has another good matchup against the Chargers. They are 3rd in FPPG given up to TEs with 17.1 and they’ve surrendered five TDs to the position this season. After some lower target numbers earlier in the season, Conklin has gotten 7 targets in back-to-back games coming out of the bye. So hopefully this is an indication that he’ll be a more regular part of the game plan the rest of the way.

    Last but not least, Dan Arnold finds himself in a situation similar to Conklin where he was not targeted as much earlier in the season but saw 10 targets in Week 8 coming out of the bye and 7 targets in Week 9. The Colts have given up six TDs to TEs this season and are just behind the Chargers in FPPG allowed with 16.9. Arnold and Conklin both provide some savings over Freiermuth who I expect would be popular after his 2-TD outing against my Bears this past Monday night.

  • Z06Fanatic

    I feel like this season with TE you’re better off paying down every week as its a wasteland with no upside. Fant/Arnold seem like the way to go this week.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @BIF said...

    Godwin missed practice – has a foot thing going on; he should play but I feel like they won’t push him and risk further injury so his snap count will be down a little and maybe more if they get out front a couple scores and can pound Lenny/RoJo in 2nd H

    Brown is going to miss as he is still in a walking boot that was supposed to be off a week ago

    Gronk likely misses again as back spasms have not subsided

    Gio was back at practice and should play

    Bucs will be cautious with everyone as it’s about the playoffs and nothing else

    I would still like to play Godwin this week just because the WFT run defense is really good and they don’t really filter it out to RBs. Johnson may or may not get six targets again since Evans won’t be going up against Lattimore this time.Was thinking of a Mclaurin run back but Dean has been really good for you guys and the TB slot defense has not given up too much lately.

  • Wsdm61987

    @Agent47 said...

    On the DK main slate, I don’t see a lot under $3,000 that I like this week. The one exception that I do really like is the Titans at $2,600. They were very impressive a couple of days ago in limiting that dangerous Rams offense at SoFi Stadium. Now, they’re at home against a Saints team that will have some combination of Siemian and Hill at QB and has arguably the league’s worst receiving corps. The Titans are 3-point favorites, and their defense boasts the 6th best adjusted sack rate after bringing Stafford down 5 times last week. The Saints are just outside the bottom 10 in sack rate allowed (ranked 19th). Lastly, this game has the second-lowest total of the week. Tennessee and New Orleans are ranked 24th and 21st respectively in situation-neutral pace of play.

    Of the higher-priced defenses, I like the Cardinals the best at $3,700. They’re at home against a Panthers team ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense has the 5th best adjusted sack rate (much better than other big favorites this week like the Steelers, Bucs, and Colts). The Panthers turnover differential on the season is -5, which is the third worst in the league. The last three weeks, the Panthers have scored 3, 19, and 6 points. And two of the defenses they’ve faced in that stretch have had big days (the Giants with 17 in Week 7 and the Patriots with 20 last week).

    Yeah, but Darnold was QB, he’s injured and out so I’m not anticipatin’ the same level of poor play out of Carolina. They get even average level of QB play and their record is flipped positively by at least 2 games.

  • odanny

    In Harbaugh’s last two games in Miami (‘17 and ’19) he has outscored Miami 89-10. I think it’s quite likely that this Miami team is worse on both sides of the ball than either of those teams, and those teams had to have had a better defense than the 30th ranked one today. I know the Ravens have had close games against Detroit and Minnesota, as well as Indy, but they are much more familiar with the Dolphins. I’d like to lay some wood on this one without a tease but last week’s games have me gun shy. There is no chance Miami keeps this one close, right?

  • Wsdm61987

    @odanny said...

    In Harbaugh’s last two games in Miami (‘17 and ’19) he has outscored Miami 89-10. I think it’s quite likely that this Miami team is worse on both sides of the ball than either of those teams, and those teams had to have had a better defense than the 30th ranked one today. I know the Ravens have had close games against Detroit and Minnesota, as well as Indy, but they are much more familiar with the Dolphins. I’d like to lay some wood on this one without a tease but last week’s games have me gun shy. There is no chance Miami keeps this one close, right?

    If that’s what your analysis concludes, then go for it.

  • Wsdm61987

    Just as an aside completely unrelated to DFS if anyone here is or was a service member I would personally like to say thank you for your service and sacrifice and Happy Veterans Day.

  • marker0357

    @Wsdm61987 said...

    Just as an aside completely unrelated to DFS if anyone here is or was a service member I would personally like to say thank you for your service and sacrifice and Happy Veterans Day.

    absolutely agree! WE will not forget the sacrifices made by those in the military so that those less fortunate may live.

  • JustDFSinn

    @marker0357 said...

    absolutely agree! WE will not forget the sacrifices made by those in the military so that those less fortunate may live.

    We would live regardless of the endless bombings the u.s does all around the planet

  • zeeshan2

    Taking Lamar CPT or no?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    For whom the Beast tolls
    It tolls for Najee

    Harris the Beast Of The Week

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