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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/16
    8:25 PM EST : Tennessee ( 7 ) at Pittsburgh ( -7 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 11/19
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( -3 ) at Chicago ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -2.5 ) at Houston ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -11 ) at NY Giants ( 11 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at Green Bay ( 2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Minnesota ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) at Cleveland ( 7.5 ) —- T: 38
    4:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 4.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 2.5 ) at Denver ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : New England ( -5.5 ) at Oakland ( 5.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3.5 ) at Dallas ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48

    Monday, 11/20
    8:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3 ) at Seattle ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @zpa1989 said...

    will Rhodes shadow woods or Watkins? I would have to imagine it would be woods. anyone know for sure?

    Houston shadowed Woods with Joseph, it didn’t work but just FYI. If you think about it, there is no reason to shadow Watkins at this point, Kupp/Gurley are a bigger part of the passing game, he’s 4th on the list as of now. With that said, wouldn’t surprise me if Watkins garnered higher ownership this week than Woods.

  • WrathofKhaaan

    @mike42 said...

    I doubt it, Den knew NE would try to feature Gronk and they have the CB’s to just leave on an island. Oak is very thin in the secondary and pretty much void of talent, they can’t leave their CB’s alone. The biggest problem with NE is they should be able to beat OAK by running or passing to the RB’s, passing to TE’s or WR’s. Denver you could predict Gronk and receiving Rb’s would be part of the game plan and to fade WR’s, Oak’s D has no strengths on D, no logical funnel. BB could have RB’s get 40 touches or throw it 50x, my best bet is Cooks and Gronk making big plays this game and Dion’s 15 plus touches and TD equity being worth more than his salary. If Hogan somehow plays he’s definitely in play at low ownership, that guy was a top 10 WR before his injury and he’s only $5800.

    Edit: Amerson probably out for Oak, this is starting to look a lot better for Cooks. He got 11 tgts vs Denver with Hogan out, he gets 11 tgts vs Oak and the odds are pretty strong he smashes.

    Agreed, that was the point I was implying with my rhetorical question Magic 8 ball gif. Cooks could go off, but still a ton of weapons to feed even with Hogan out, I still think naked Brady is the best way to roll here.

  • WrathofKhaaan

    Mattek listed Brett Hundley in his AutoMattek Absolutes column… 🤔
    Looks like someone’s fishing… 🎣

  • squidkill

    @WrathofKhaaan said...

    Mattek listed Brett Hundley in his AutoMattek Absolutes column… 🤔
    Looks like someone’s fishing… 🎣

    People don’t listen to that burnout. Do they?

  • WrathofKhaaan

    @squidkill said...

    People don’t listen to that burnout. Do they?

    I hope not for their sake…

  • Fonz87

    I’m pretty sure he purposely tries to put people on terrible plays lol

  • ASitar

    Is San Diego a free square for $3k on DK?

  • MrBreeze

    @Fonz87 said...

    I’m pretty sure he purposely tries to put people on terrible plays lol

    Yup, read between the lines, I always key on players him and Mayo DON’T talk about. Yes I listen to everyone, don’t you?

  • xpac21

    @ASitar said...

    Is San Diego a free square for $3k on DK?

    didnt know there was a football team in san diego anymore

  • infantryboys

    @infantryboys said...

    Please send me a H2H. Pick the buy in, I’m in for anything under $1K.

    You sent me a $10 H2H and then you canceled it. What’s up?

  • miggs6876

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    Just saw on Mike and Mike that Tyrod Taylor is benched this week..Nathan Peterman starting. Bills are packing it in already although I guess the QB play cant get much worse in Buffalo.

    I don’t understand the move. Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs in 99 years. Well, you get my point. As a fan, I still have a glimmer of hope we can make it there. Currently, we are the 6th seed. Personally, it a huge long shot. Tyrod gives us the best chance to win. Is he great? No no and no. Why in the world would the coaches make a QB change now? Tyrod wasn’t out there when Forte, Kamara, and Ingrahm gashed us. Seems to me the coaching staff is making Tyrod the scapegoat. To boot, Peterman is facing the deadly combo of Boss and Ingrahm. I’m all over the charger defense. Load up…

  • Fonz87

    I think it’s a PLAXICO BURRIS week

  • mike42

    Random thoughts by Mike 42:

    Crowder and his 10 tgts in a projected shootout at 4300 is way too cheap.

    Ellington and cooks are going to be the chalk at WR.

    Rex is going to end up chalk at RB. Experts touting him already for increased snap percentages.

    If P. Dorsett is playing 90 percent of the snaps he’s in play. More projected passes to WR’s this game and he’s on the field more than amendola.

    T. Hill- per football guys podcast. Jackrabbit has given up more yds than any CB in the NFL last 5 wks even though he hasn’t played in 2 of this wks. That’s insane. Think Reid goes after him with fastest guy in the NFL and most are going to fade Hill for maybe the wrong reasons.

    AJ Green- If Denvers secondary has its third bad game in a row he probably pushes 30 pts for as cheap of a price as he’s ever been.

    M. Evans in a cake matchup vs a pass funnel D and nobody will want to pay up for him.

    R. Cobb- He should end up being used as a third down back on occasion and mixed into backfield some. He’s 3900 but should get 3-5 more touches than most are expecting. Just think MM tries to get him the ball on the edges, in space, vs a tough D. Think injuries add to his value, just wish he wasn’t playing Balt.

  • mike42

    @miggs6876 said...

    I don’t understand the move. Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs in 99 years. Well, you get my point. As a fan, I still have a glimmer of hope we can make it there. Currently, we are the 6th seed. Personally, it a huge long shot. Tyrod gives us the best chance to win. Is he great? No no and no. Why in the world would the coaches make a QB change now? Tyrod wasn’t out there when Forte, Kamara, and Ingrahm gashed us. Seems to me the coaching staff is making Tyrod the scapegoat. To boot, Peterman is facing the deadly combo of Boss and Ingrahm. I’m all over the charger defense. Load up…

    Just awful timing too, SD pass D is legit good. Rookie QB’s tend to struggle, wait a couple weeks or for a home game. Also, you trade good players this offseason, than Darius 2 weeks ago, than bench tygod, at some point you may lose the locker room. I was thinking abiut rostering more SD players this week because it’s a blow up spot for them with low ownership.

  • ucbsharkbait

    @ASitar said...

    Is San Diego a free square for $3k on DK?

    Any defense against a QB making his first start is very playable, but I’m not sure this qualifies as a free square. Buffalo ranks 29th in pass percentage with Tyrod and I doubt they open up the playbook here with Shady drawing a legit bad Chargers run defense. The potential is there for low pass volume and low upside.

    Obviously, there is also potential for the Chargers to score 3 quick TDs and force Peterman to throw downfield for 2+ quarters, in which case you’d be in great shape. But there is risk here. I’m not sure they’re a better play than the Rams DST at a ridiculously cheap $2400.

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    AJ Green- If Denvers secondary has its third bad game in a row he probably pushes 30 pts for as cheap of a price as he’s ever been.

    Denvers def has been getting a bad rap. As bad as they lost last week Brady only threw for 266 yds. Yes, he had 4 tds. A lot of Denvers problem is turnovers and special teams. They keep giving up short fields. Gronk was the leading receiver with 74 yds. The spot to attack Denver is backs and TE’s. That’s why NE kept throwing it to the backs and Gronk. Hell, even Allen got a td. And Cincy should do the same, Kroft would be my guess for the best game, or a fluky Gio pass out of the backfield. Pacman is in concussion protocol, that might hurt Cincy def. If he is out I actually like Den to be able to move the ball with one of their receivers and running. Not saying I would go with any of their backs because nobody has been getting great volume but if they got out to a lead maybe CJ could get volume. Big maybe.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @33BeRad said...

    Denvers def has been getting a bad rap. As bad as they lost last week Brady only threw for 266 yds. Yes, he had 4 tds. A lot of Denvers problem is turnovers and special teams. They keep giving up short fields. Gronk was the leading receiver with 74 yds. The spot to attack Denver is backs and TE’s. That’s why NE kept throwing it to the backs and Gronk. Hell, even Allen got a td. And Cincy should do the same, Kroft would be my guess for the best game, or a fluky Gio pass out of the backfield. Pacman is in concussion protocol, that might hurt Cincy def. If he is out I actually like Den to be able to move the ball with one of their receivers and running. Not saying I would go with any of their backs because nobody has been getting great volume but if they got out to a lead maybe CJ could get volume. Big maybe.

    Patriots seem content to run the ball. If brady wanted to he could push 400 yards vs broncos, they’re ass. One of the bronco wr’s always seem to get decent pts, probably always from garbage time moving forward but pts are pts. Awful, awful team.

  • frUnk

    I’m really high on the TB/MIA game this week. This game has sleeper shoot out potential. Both teams desperately need a win. The spread on this game is currently PICK, so Vegas is expecting this game to be close.

    Dolphins just got lit up by the Panthers, giving up over 100 yards to J-Stew, and Newton threw 4 TD passes. Back comes Evans from his 1 game vacation, and he himself said he needs to step his game up. A lot of people fell for the Fitztragic treatment against the Jets, but not sure what the hype was without Evans in the lineup. Was D-Jax and Humphries really going to light it up?

    Tampa Bay has given up some big games to WRs this season. They also give up a lot of long completions as well. I really think this could be the low owned game that both these teams go off this week. Throw in a few players from the other high owned games (OAK/NE, KC/NYG, WAS/NO), and we might be looking good in GPPs, if this game is a high scoring affair.

    I’m stacking the crap out of this game and sprinkling in some guys from the other games most people are targeting in GPPs. It’s Week 11, go big or go home!

    My targets in this game are Cutler, Stills, Parker, Orange Julius. And Fitztragic, Evans, and Brate on the other side. But I’m liking the Dolphins side a tad more.

  • ASitar

    I’m not touching any Dolphins that game but a couple of Bucs are in play for me. Evans and Douggie Martin. I’m putting him in a few GPPs.

    1) He’ll be low-owned because he hasn’t done jack this year (3.3 yards/carry and no TDs in L4).
    2) Alex Collins went off for 143 yards against the Phins, JStew has 110 yards, and Beastmode had 63 and a TD.

    I like DJ Jr just as much for $100 less on DK, but I’ll have some Douggie in my LUs. And I only do 8-10 Milly Makers. It’s simply a % play.

  • phatosas

    I am starting to worry about chalky Kelce and thinking of pivoting to Gronk. However the Giants defense just gives up a TC to every tight end. Game flow might be an issue but at least you know where the passes go for Alex Smith. What worries me about Gronk is the Patriots do no force feed him the ball. They would always go to the path of least resistance. Last week Hogan didn’t play and I thought he would be the main target at the end zone but it didn’t work. I am also a bit tilted after getting burned by Gronk last week but I would end up playing a bit of Gronk. I am playing some Brate, he sucked last week and nobody would be on him but going against the Miami defense is a good spot. He could be lowly owned and be the highest scoring tight end this week at a discount.

  • Mikeallin

    @ucbsharkbait said...

    Any defense against a QB making his first start is very playable, but I’m not sure this qualifies as a free square. Buffalo ranks 29th in pass percentage with Tyrod and I doubt they open up the playbook here with Shady drawing a legit bad Chargers run defense. The potential is there for low pass volume and low upside.

    Obviously, there is also potential for the Chargers to score 3 quick TDs and force Peterman to throw downfield for 2+ quarters, in which case you’d be in great shape. But there is risk here. I’m not sure they’re a better play than the Rams DST at a ridiculously cheap $2400.

    Im all over Chargers D….
    They will stack the box, make Peterwho beat them in the air. Its going be tuff sleding for Shady. However, if Rivers is out, then probably low scoring game with little upside

  • MrPerfekt7

    For the Early slate

    QBs:
    Bree’s
    Smith
    Bortles
    Gabbert- Hate that I said him but he is playing the Texans and the secondary has been getting picked apart

    Thoughts

  • lukemiller42

    for some reason I really like jj nelson. it just seems like speedy wrs burn the Texans and in a nice dome, I just see him breaking off a long one even though his snaps have been limited. I actually think the cardinals will pass more than people expect but if its not going to fitz, someone has to get going. ive seen everyone on the rams and ty Hilton have monster games vs Texans the last 2 weeks since Watson went down, id guess this team lost all motivation.

    ill be pairing this ridiculous play with seth Roberts – the pats do a good job of keeping wr#1s in check and so I think amari is going to be blegh…expecting big things from Roberts and crabtree as carr has thrown for 300+ in his last 3 games. ill be paying up at every other single position with these 2 scrubs.

  • dhess0

    Do the Rams have an answer for Theilen and Diggs? Will they only be able to lock down one of them? I think it’s going to be a great game and may roll out a mini game stack.

    Also loving Jamison Crowder as someone else mentioned… I may stay away from Cousins given NOS pass D as of late.

    Entertaining going back to the well on Melvin Gordon as I think recency bias will depress ownership and we saw what NOS RB’s did to the Bills last week.

    Also playing in a cheap 3 entry max GPP for the full slate. 2 entries are fading tonight entirely and one LU is going to have a big ol’ game stack. With Joe Haden out for PIT I think there is some shootout potential.

  • jeffreybuckets

    I’m taking a long look @ Adrian Peterson in GPP’s.

    my thoughts:
    This game setups up to look like the week 1 JAX/HOU game. Fournette had 25+/100/1 . Jax was limiting Bortles having to throw the ball. Only through 21x. This was a fully healthy HOU defense as well.

    AP should see similar volume 25+ carries while they limit Gabbert throws.

    6k of DK, with low ownership with potential to go nuts

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