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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/16
    8:25 PM EST : Tennessee ( 7 ) at Pittsburgh ( -7 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 11/19
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( -3 ) at Chicago ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -2.5 ) at Houston ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -11 ) at NY Giants ( 11 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at Green Bay ( 2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Minnesota ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) at Cleveland ( 7.5 ) —- T: 38
    4:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 4.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 2.5 ) at Denver ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : New England ( -5.5 ) at Oakland ( 5.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3.5 ) at Dallas ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48

    Monday, 11/20
    8:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3 ) at Seattle ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • bdub85

    @WrathofKhaaan said...

    Mattek listed Brett Hundley in his AutoMattek Absolutes column… 🤔
    Looks like someone’s fishing… 🎣

    Is he serious?

  • mike42

    @33BeRad said...

    Denvers def has been getting a bad rap. As bad as they lost last week Brady only threw for 266 yds. Yes, he had 4 tds. A lot of Denvers problem is turnovers and special teams. They keep giving up short fields. Gronk was the leading receiver with 74 yds. The spot to attack Denver is backs and TE’s. That’s why NE kept throwing it to the backs and Gronk. Hell, even Allen got a td. And Cincy should do the same, Kroft would be my guess for the best game, or a fluky Gio pass out of the backfield. Pacman is in concussion protocol, that might hurt Cincy def. If he is out I actually like Den to be able to move the ball with one of their receivers and running. Not saying I would go with any of their backs because nobody has been getting great volume but if they got out to a lead maybe CJ could get volume. Big maybe.

    I’m mostly in agreement with you across the board. Like Kroft too and a denver WR should do well if pacman is out, otherwise they hold WR’s down. But here’s the thing that most are going to miss strictly for GPP’s, that D has NOT looked remotely like the DEN D we’ve grown accustomed to. I think a big part of it is they don’t get pressure and CB’s best friend is pressure. ALso, in a similar vein to the Giants, personnel is mostly the same but the level of the play isn’t. Cincy has a halfway decent shot of scoring a few TD’s this game, going for 350 yds, almost all of which should be through the air. My buddy in Denver says the mood couldn’t be worse, the season is denver is already over and Brock is at QB. How will they play with nothing to play for but pride? Veteran team, they should respond but their is a 1 in 3 shot that they don’t and if that’s the case, AJ should have a tourney winning type game with low ownership at a low price. Others (Kroft/Mixon) could too. Defense needs to be played with an edge or talent doesn’t matter, everybody in the NFL benches 400 lbs and runs fast, it’s not college. Are you confident that a Brock Osweiller led team with a new coach is going to show up and play with that edge for 4 quarters after getting embarrassed 2 weeks in a row? I actually think so but I also thought the Giants would in a similar situation, just a decent chance Denver doesn’t either.

  • frUnk

    @dhess0 said...

    Entertaining going back to the well on Melvin Gordon as I think recency bias will depress ownership and we saw what NOS RB’s did to the Bills last week.

    And for those thinking that Peterwho is going to struggle, and are looking at playing the Chargers DST, that correlates into a possible good game for Gordon.

    On an interesting side note, Jon Gruden picked Nathan Peterman, as the most pro ready QB in this years draft class. Maybe a 1% owned Peterwho stack takes down the Milly lol

  • GTRandy27

    @frUnk said...

    And for those thinking that Peterwho is going to struggle, and are looking at playing the Chargers DST, that correlates into a possible good game for Gordon.

    On an interesting side note, Jon Gruden picked Nathan Peterman, as the most pro ready QB in this years draft class. Maybe a 1% owned Peterwho stack takes down the Milly lol

    Chargers defense is actually really good and underrated though, and playing @ home. I think shady can have a pretty solid ppr game though

  • infantryboys

    @miggs6876 said...

    I don’t understand the move. Buffalo hasn’t made the playoffs in 99 years. Well, you get my point. As a fan, I still have a glimmer of hope we can make it there. Currently, we are the 6th seed. Personally, it a huge long shot. Tyrod gives us the best chance to win. Is he great? No no and no. Why in the world would the coaches make a QB change now? Tyrod wasn’t out there when Forte, Kamara, and Ingrahm gashed us. Seems to me the coaching staff is making Tyrod the scapegoat. To boot, Peterman is facing the deadly combo of Boss and Ingrahm. I’m all over the charger defense. Load up…

    Buffalo obviously doesn’t consider Taylor their QB of the future so they want to get an extended look at Peterman before investing a draft pick on the position.

  • clrockny24

    @frUnk said...

    And for those thinking that Peterwho is going to struggle, and are looking at playing the Chargers DST, that correlates into a possible good game for Gordon.

    On an interesting side note, Jon Gruden picked Nathan Peterman, as the most pro ready QB in this years draft class. Maybe a 1% owned Peterwho stack takes down the Milly lol

    I am wondering though, will ownership be higher on Gordon because of what we saw the Saints RB’s do to the bills last week?

  • frUnk

    @clrockny24 said...

    I am wondering though, will ownership be higher on Gordon because of what we saw the Saints RB’s do to the bills last week?

    People who picked Gordon last week, and watched Ekeler go nuts when the game was still close, Gordon on the bench

    Vs.

    The people who saw what the Saints did to Buffalo, and plug Gordon in their lineups this week.

    I’d say those two groups about even out his ownership level this week.

  • infantryboys

    @7klub06 said...

    For the Early slate

    QBs:
    Bree’s
    Smith
    Bortles
    Gabbert- Hate that I said him but he is playing the Texans and the secondary has been getting picked apart

    Thoughts

    Be careful with Bottles as its expected to be very windy for that game. At the very least check the weather there before lock.

  • KindGuy

    Holy FUCK, I just realized how bad the QB matchups are this week. This is the best that the NFL has to offer?

  • TopDawgs07

    As mentioned above, there are two games in particular where wind could be a factor. Cleveland vs Jacksonville has 20-25mph sustained wind and snow flurries. More importantly, KC at NYG has the potential for wind gusts up to 30mph. Weather isn’t everything, but wind can be an issue passive.

  • squidkill

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    As mentioned above, there are two games in particular where wind could be a factor. Cleveland vs Jacksonville has 20-25mph sustained wind and snow flurries. More importantly, KC at NYG has the potential for wind gusts up to 30mph. Weather isn’t everything, but wind can be an issue passive.

    Breaking Wind can be an issue

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    My article for the week – https://rotogrinders.com/articles/nfl-pace-impact-week-11-2193916

    Give it a read if you have time!

  • Mizzou311

    @phatosas said...

    I am starting to worry about chalky Kelce and thinking of pivoting to Gronk. However the Giants defense just gives up a TC to every tight end. Game flow might be an issue but at least you know where the passes go for Alex Smith. What worries me about Gronk is the Patriots do no force feed him the ball. They would always go to the path of least resistance. Last week Hogan didn’t play and I thought he would be the main target at the end zone but it didn’t work. I am also a bit tilted after getting burned by Gronk last week but I would end up playing a bit of Gronk. I am playing some Brate, he sucked last week and nobody would be on him but going against the Miami defense is a good spot. He could be lowly owned and be the highest scoring tight end this week at a discount.

    No doubt the Chiefs TD to a TE this week will go to either Demetrious Harris or Ross Travis because Andy Reid likes to do stupid stuff.

  • mike42

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    As mentioned above, there are two games in particular where wind could be a factor. Cleveland vs Jacksonville has 20-25mph sustained wind and snow flurries. More importantly, KC at NYG has the potential for wind gusts up to 30mph. Weather isn’t everything, but wind can be an issue passive.

    At least A. Smith has a cannon of an arm. On a more serious note, you got to like Hunt more. Increases chances of a closer game (weather does that) and I think they use him in the passing game more, possibly a couple well timed screens for big plays vs an awful LB group.

  • escot4

    • x2

      $2M Prize Winner

    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Champion

    Wanted to open up a discussion about the Green Bay backfield this week. I’ve always had a hard time figuring out what Mike McCarthy will do. If Montgomery is out, how do you think the work will be divided between Jamaal Williams and Devante Mays? Both are more “power” type backs, neither being shifty or particularly elusive. I’m guessing these are the possibilities:

    A) Williams is the featured back and plays 80% or more of the snaps and dominates touches.

    B) Mays plays the early down grinder role (he’s 5’11, 230) and Williams plays passing downs… the two have a pretty even split in touches.

    C) The two alternate series to start the game and McCarthy rides the “hot hand” after that.

    D) Some other scenario that I’m not considering.

    Would love to hear some insight into what you guys expect, especially if you’re someone who has been able to predict McCarthy better than I have in the past.

  • gillio

    Cousins just tore up a good Vikings D. He’ll go 300+ yards and 2+ total TDs this week

    Cousins-Thompson stack

    In two games without Kelly this year Thompson has gone:

    Week 3:
    Rushing: 8-38
    Receiving: 6-150-1
    DK Points: 33.8

    Week 6:
    Rushing: 16-33
    Receiving: 4-105
    DK Points: 20.8

  • dhess0

    Can Bell run on a fairly solid Titans d? Or is Brown the play tonight?

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @escot4 said...

    Wanted to open up a discussion about the Green Bay backfield this week. I’ve always had a hard time figuring out what Mike McCarthy will do. If Montgomery is out, how do you think the work will be divided between Jamaal Williams and Devante Mays? Both are more “power” type backs, neither being shifty or particularly elusive. I’m guessing these are the possibilities:

    A) Williams is the featured back and plays 80% or more of the snaps and dominates touches.

    B) Mays plays the early down grinder role (he’s 5’11, 230) and Williams plays passing downs… the two have a pretty even split in touches.

    C) The two alternate series to start the game and McCarthy rides the “hot hand” after that.

    D) Some other scenario that I’m not considering.

    Would love to hear some insight into what you guys expect, especially if you’re someone who has been able to predict McCarthy better than I have in the past.

    I’ll go with A here Scott. Can’t see McCarthy giving a lot of run to Mays – if anything, I’d expect Ripkowski/Cobb to be move involved (really like Cobb as an option).

    Packers fan here fwiw – oh and I said to fade Bilal Powell last week. :)

  • cheezpizza

    QB is not brutal this week. Brees at home against a D that just made Keenum look like a superstar. Take that match up at whatever price.

  • dhess0

    @cheezpizza said...

    QB is not brutal this week. Brees at home against a D that just made Keenum look like a superstar. Take that match up at whatever price.

    I like that call. Does Norman shadow Thomas in this one?

  • bdub85

    @escot4 said...

    Wanted to open up a discussion about the Green Bay backfield this week. I’ve always had a hard time figuring out what Mike McCarthy will do. If Montgomery is out, how do you think the work will be divided between Jamaal Williams and Devante Mays? Both are more “power” type backs, neither being shifty or particularly elusive. I’m guessing these are the possibilities:

    A) Williams is the featured back and plays 80% or more of the snaps and dominates touches.

    B) Mays plays the early down grinder role (he’s 5’11, 230) and Williams plays passing downs… the two have a pretty even split in touches.

    C) The two alternate series to start the game and McCarthy rides the “hot hand” after that.

    D) Some other scenario that I’m not considering.

    Would love to hear some insight into what you guys expect, especially if you’re someone who has been able to predict McCarthy better than I have in the past.

    I know it’s not directly what you are asking, but the Ravens have tightened up their run D since Brandon Williams came back. Last 2 weeks, opposing RB’s against the Ravens 2.5 YPC.

  • cheezpizza

    @dhess0 said...

    I like that call. Does Norman shadow Thomas in this one?

    I would expect so. Thomas is match-up proof in the offense, regarding who is covering him. I would say Ginn is in the most prime spot though.

  • 33BeRad

    @ASitar said...

    I’m not touching any Dolphins that game but a couple of Bucs are in play for me. Evans and Douggie Martin. I’m putting him in a few GPPs.

    1) He’ll be low-owned because he hasn’t done jack this year (3.3 yards/carry and no TDs in L4).
    2) Alex Collins went off for 143 yards against the Phins, JStew has 110 yards, and Beastmode had 63 and a TD.

    I like DJ Jr just as much for $100 less on DK, but I’ll have some Douggie in my LUs. And I only do 8-10 Milly Makers. It’s simply a % play.

    The Muscle Hampster is getting some love. He is the “start of the week” on cbssports. And I think with the last thing people saw was J-Stew running for over 100 yards they will want the back that is up next against them. I am on board with this game going over so I like the passing attack more, led by Evans and Parker. Not sure if I am going to do a QB from this game as I think Brady and Carr have more upside.
    I am not sure where to go with Maclin/Wallace so I am doing 1 v 1 lineups with them. I think one of them has a good day

  • themouth1888

    So 34 lineups entered on DK this week and here are my top 3 at each position:

    QB:

    Drew Brees 32.25%
    Russell Wilson 11.76%
    Eli Manning 11.76%

    RB:

    Alvin Kamara 32.35%
    Isaiah Crowell 29.41%
    Mark Ingram 23.52%

    WR:

    Marqise Lee 35.29%
    Sterling Shepard 26.47%
    DeAndre Hopkins 26.47%

    TE:

    Travis Kelce 23.52%
    Evan Engram 17.64%
    Kyle Rudolph 11.76%

    Flex:

    Kenny Britt 14.70%
    Jared Cook 8.82%
    Sterling Shepard 8.82%
    Rob Gronkowski 8.82%

    DST:

    Packers 26.74%
    Saints 20.58%
    Bengals 14.70%

    What you guys think?

  • escot4

    • x2

      $2M Prize Winner

    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Champion

    @bdub85 said...

    I know it’s not directly what you are asking, but the Ravens have tightened up their run D since Brandon Williams came back. Last 2 weeks, opposing RB’s against the Ravens 2.5 YPC.

    True… but that’s especially why determining Jamaal Williams workload is important. I only want to play him if he’s gonna be featured and get around 15-20 carries plus 3-4 catches. He doesn’t need to be efficient on that type of workload to hit value at 4.9k, especially if he gets a goal-line TD. I’ve currently got Williams projected for like 19 carries and 3.5 catches, so I want to use him, but not completely comfortable yet.

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