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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/16
    8:25 PM EST : Tennessee ( 7 ) at Pittsburgh ( -7 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 11/19
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( -3 ) at Chicago ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -2.5 ) at Houston ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -11 ) at NY Giants ( 11 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at Green Bay ( 2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Minnesota ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) at Cleveland ( 7.5 ) —- T: 38
    4:05 PM EST : Buffalo ( 4.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 2.5 ) at Denver ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : New England ( -5.5 ) at Oakland ( 5.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3.5 ) at Dallas ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48

    Monday, 11/20
    8:30 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3 ) at Seattle ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @htaneers said...

    Agreed with Kroft at 2.9k on DK, as a TE or FLEX potentially.

    I think most people playing Ellington have him as one of 3WR though, and his floor is pretty insane for a 3k WR.
    Will Fuller out, Patrick Peterson on Hopkins, OBrien saying we need to get him the ball this week, AZ being kinda trash vs WR2 in addition to slot WR…
    He already got 8 targets last two games too. And has converted that to ok production. So thats a pretty unfair floor for the price honestly.

    Haha you read my mind. I was just adding some comments to my old post as you posted. I agree with what you are saying.

  • htaneers

    @frUnk said...

    Raiders know they can’t go toe to toe against the Patriots. They need to keep the Pats off the field and control the clock. This will be the first time Beast Mode plays the Patriots since he didn’t get the ball in the Superbowl. They’ve been conserving Lynch for the 2nd half of the season, now it’s time to unleash the Beast vs the leaky Patriots run defense. Lynch posted custom made Mexican flag cleats on his Twitter page. I’m predicting Beast Mode goes HAM and runs for over 120 yards and 2 TDs. All at under 5% ownership, with everyone else on Carr, Cooper, Crab. Let’s go Mexican cleats Beast MODE! Cha Cha Cha!!!

    I want this to be true sooooo bad. I don’t believe enough, but I will hope it happens while not playing him LOL.
    I had a couple roster constructions (that I ditched) where I had 4.6-5k for a RB.
    Then I noticed LamarMiller and BeastMode have similar projections this week!!
    Confused the fuck outta me…but I can definitely see an AP-like breakout game for Beast.

    Unfortunately my cash lineup doesn’t fit him in pricing-wise very well. Might do a few GPP with him.

  • draggin49

    On dk it feels wrong fading kelce/gronk.
    I gotta settle on how big of games I think they have . Still have 6 spots to differentiate lineups even if you paired them. Most weeks there’s usually some chalk in the gpp winning lineups

  • htaneers

    @draggin49 said...

    On dk it feels wrong fading kelce/gronk.
    I gotta settle on how big of games I think they have . Still have 6 spots to differentiate lineups even if you paired them. Most weeks there’s usually some chalk in the gpp winning lineups

    in GPP you can definitely fade them, in cash you gotta pick one IMO

    GPP-viable TEs are APLENTY this week, this is the best week to be able to fade them.
    Kroft, Engram, JCook, BenWatson, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Rudolph, Henry as serious alternatives
    V.Davis as a troll that could get enough volume to justify the terrible matchup.
    M.Lewis, Bennett or D.Allen as trolls that could go 1-1-1

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Bruce Ellington is what makes NFL so much different than NBA. In the NBA (which I am way better at), if there was a Bruce Ellington situation, I would probably go heavy on on him (min priced 3k starter), but in the NFL, where it’s super high variance, it makes it more interesting. Adam Humphries was like 3.1k and did absolutely nothing last week. I’m not saying Ellington will pull a Humphires, but it makes the choice harder than NBA. In the NBA, almost every single 3k sub that gets 30 mins a night with decent usage (so not OG Anouby who’s the 20th option) will get 5x and most likely 7x. In the NFL, that’s not the case. Still though, this thread has introduced me to Bruce Ellington and I will now have him on some teams. Now watch Andre Ellington go off.

  • draggin49

    lol I think a high school TE could put up a nice stat line vs the NYG . They are horrible vs TE

  • htaneers

    @superstars92 said...

    Bruce Ellington is what makes NFL so much different than NBA. In the NBA (which I am way better at), if there was a Bruce Ellington situation, I would probably go heavy on on him (min priced 3k starter), but in the NFL, where it’s super high variance, it makes it more interesting. Adam Humphries was like 3.1k and did absolutely nothing last week. I’m not saying Ellington will pull a Humphires, but it makes the choice harder than NBA. In the NBA, almost every single 3k sub that gets 30 mins a night with decent usage (so not OG Anouby who’s the 20th option) will get 5x and most likely 7x. In the NFL, that’s not the case. Still though, this thread has introduced me to Bruce Ellington and I will now have him on some teams. Now watch Andre Ellington go off.

    There are more variables though, I was off Humphries but 100% on a 3k starter ON THE SAME TEAM, Chris Godwin, because he was the one actually taking over Mike Evans role for that game, Humphries role was staying the same. So that was a trick that so many fell for.

  • deactivated204643

    @superstars92 said...

    Bruce Ellington is what makes NFL so much different than NBA. In the NBA (which I am way better at), if there was a Bruce Ellington situation, I would probably go heavy on on him (min priced 3k starter), but in the NFL, where it’s super high variance, it makes it more interesting. Adam Humphries was like 3.1k and did absolutely nothing last week. I’m not saying Ellington will pull a Humphires, but it makes the choice harder than NBA. In the NBA, almost every single 3k sub that gets 30 mins a night with decent usage (so not OG Anouby who’s the 20th option) will get 5x and most likely 7x. In the NFL, that’s not the case. Still though, this thread has introduced me to Bruce Ellington and I will now have him on some teams. Now watch Andre Ellington go off.

    I didn’t play Humphries last week but I’m at least 75% on Ellington. We all play different styles whether gpp or cash. I see Eddie Ellington as this weeks free square. He’s a solid play in any format. We rarely get a play at stone minimum $3000. I’ve missed the last two weeks on what I thought was a free square, Lacy then Powell. I try to stay true to what I want to accomplish, win a gpp. I don’t mind taking these chances. I’m not sure why I don’t have 100%. He’ll get a lot of targets (Min 6-7), start him with confidence.

    Edit: I tried to make this point earlier in the week. I played 100% Powell in over 50 gpp lu last week. He got 3 or 4pts and my ROI for the week on DK was -5%. It didn’t kill me in part because his salary gave me room to fit plays I couldn’t have reached otherwise.

  • frUnk

    Starting to come around on Ellington in GPPs, worried about not having him and he somehow drops 20 DK points at only $3000, going to be hard to win a GPP if that happens and you don’t have him.

    I’m also having a hard time getting off the Jaguars/Chargers DST, with both of them coming in with a 20% ownership estimate. Crap weather, Kizer against the Jaguars defense, seems to easy. But we know guessing right on DST is never this easy, is it? lol

  • Dakotasbest

    I know that Houston has faced Gronk/kelce already so their stats might not be as bad as I’m thinking vs TE. But would Gresham be a good pivot for gpp play? I feel his usage is there and he’s a safe target for a not so safe qb?

  • themouth1888

    I’ve just woke up with a hangover (it’s 10am in Scotland) and see Shepard is now likely out.

    I’ve got him in majority of line ups and have a few Giants stacks. I can’t be bothered changing it all feeling like this lol

    I will say that Engram is money this week now.

  • xpac21

    @themouth1888 said...

    I’ve just woke up with a hangover (it’s 10am in Scotland) and see Shepard is now likely out.

    I’ve got him in majority of line ups and have a few Giants stacks. I can’t be bothered changing it all feeling like this lol

    I will say that Engram is money this week now.

    just got done taking him out, took about 5 hours coming up with ideas for new lineups whew

  • frUnk

    @Dakotasbest said...

    I know that Houston has faced Gronk/kelce already so their stats might not be as bad as I’m thinking vs TE. But would Gresham be a good pivot for gpp play? I feel his usage is there and he’s a safe target for a not so safe qb?

    This seems to be one of the hardest weeks for picking a TE. Literally you can almost play any TE this week. From top to bottom: Kelce, Gronk, Engram, Cook, Davis, Brate, Fiedorowicz, Kroft, Watson, Gresham, Thomas.

    Kelce – Expected high scoring heavily targeted DFS game, high winds might mean more passes to the RBs and TEs.

    Gronk – Another expected high scoring heavily targeted DFS game, Gronk can always have a monster game

    Engram – Now with Sterling Shepard out, he will be #1 Target, might get all 30 of Manning’s targets lol

    Cook – Other side of the Gronk play, high scoring, been money his last 3 games

    Davis – Reed out again, possible shoot out in NO. Crowder, Davis, Thompson are the most likely to get the passing TDs

    Brate – Miami is bad against TE, could be a sneaky shoot out of a game. Either Brate or Evans will probably get the passing TDs.

    CJ Fied – Savage sucks, CJF has played 90% of the teams snaps past few weeks, Hopkins smothered by Pat Pete. Someone has to catch the 18 passes Savage will complete. Ellington, CJ, and maybe Miller most likely to catch TD passes

    Kroft – Denver is a pass funnel defense to tight end, getting torched by TEs, seems too easy of a pick, but he really only had 1 great game this season

    Watson – Could be in play vs GB, he seems to get mentioned every week as a low price option, I like him the least out of this TE list

    Gresham – Pair of good games his last 2 games played, could be security blanket for Gabbert this week, HOU been getting creamed by passing attacks

    Julius Thomas – I added him to this list, watching last game the Dolphins looked for ways to get him the ball. Lining him up outside, throwing fade to him in end zone. His TD pass was the shovel pass play, where the TE comes across the formation like he’s blocking and the QB flips him the ball. Sneaky shoot out potential in this game

    See, crazy week for TE, really could be any of those guys who end up being the best play. This is one of the hardest weeks for TE, if you don’t just take Gronk, Kelce, or Engram.

    Edit:. Or watch Rudolph grab 2 TDs, and score 20+ DK points at 3% ownership lol

  • Kamais_Ookin

    Engram going to be astronomically chalky if Shepard sits out.

  • JMAC126

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Engram going to be astronomically chalky if Shepard sits out.

    He was most likely going to be the 3rd highest te owned with Sheppard playing. Where is the extra ownership coming from?

  • Pitch120

    How many times do we fall for the chalk that fails…

    Houstons guy will be their No. 3 WR or TE. Everyone is looking in the wrong direction.

    For the Pats idk how you dont load up on White or Lewis

  • depalma13

    @superstars92 said...

    Bruce Ellington is what makes NFL so much different than NBA. In the NBA (which I am way better at), if there was a Bruce Ellington situation, I would probably go heavy on on him (min priced 3k starter), but in the NFL, where it’s super high variance, it makes it more interesting. Adam Humphries was like 3.1k and did absolutely nothing last week. I’m not saying Ellington will pull a Humphires, but it makes the choice harder than NBA. In the NBA, almost every single 3k sub that gets 30 mins a night with decent usage (so not OG Anouby who’s the 20th option) will get 5x and most likely 7x. In the NFL, that’s not the case. Still though, this thread has introduced me to Bruce Ellington and I will now have him on some teams. Now watch Andre Ellington go off.

    I’m using Inman as my cheap WR this week.

  • Alexg85

    Dont take advice from the guy who refuses to play somebody because he doesn’t know what they look like.

  • monarch

    Anyone like Marvin Jones? If I go from Coop to Jones everything falls into place. He should get peppered with targets if they can lock up Tate.

  • ActionJunkie

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Engram going to be astronomically chalky if Shepard sits out.

    Last time he was astronomically chalky was week 5 with Odell out and Engram had 4 targets and 0 catches (11 targets the week before)… personally, I still haven’t been able to shake that off yet.

  • Messiah717

    This is the time when you just want the games to start so you can stop being tempted to change lineups.

  • Drayzen

    Brady/Maclin or Cousins/Cooper for DK GPP. Last decision to make!

  • Njsum1

    Bruce Ellington thoughts….
    Pros:
    1)you gotta have some exposure to the #2 WR when the number #1 is going against Patrick Peterson.
    2) saw 8 targets in back to back weeks with Hopkins not going against Patrick Peterson
    3) he’s 3k….let me repeat….he’s 3k…if he fails to record a single catch you can still at least cash with some lineups.

    Cons:
    1) Tom Savage
    2) what makes you think Bill O’Brien cares that Patrick Peterson is covering DeAndre Hopkins and won’t force feed Hopkins 15 targets because of that
    3) Tom Savage

    Taking in the pros and cons…I think the pros outweigh the cons, yet also makes me interested in a low owned and fairly priced Hopkins who will still likely draw an insane amount of targets.

  • frUnk

    @Njsum1 said...

    Bruce Ellington thoughts….
    Pros:
    1)you gotta have some exposure to the #2 WR when the number #1 is going against Patrick Peterson.
    2) saw 8 targets in back to back weeks with Hopkins not going against Patrick Peterson
    3) he’s 3k….let me repeat….he’s 3k…if he fails to record a single catch you can still at least cash with some lineups.

    Cons:
    1) Tom Savage
    2) what makes you think Bill O’Brien cares that Patrick Peterson is covering DeAndre Hopkins and won’t force feed Hopkins 15 targets because of that
    3) Tom Savage

    Taking in the pros and cons…I think the pros outweigh the cons, yet also makes me interested in a low owned and fairly priced Hopkins who will still likely draw an insane amount of targets.

    I have Hopkins in a lineup, Patrick Peterson said he can’t wait for this matchup, because he knows he will get action. He said you don’t have 108 targets so far this season, and those targets not continuing this week even against him. He has respect for Hopkins and is waiting for the challenge. He said get your popcorn ready. So even Pat is thinking he will actually get balls thrown his way this week. He ain’t named Savage for nothing, pepper pepper dot dot.

  • Njsum1

    @frUnk said...

    I have Hopkins in a lineup, Patrick Peterson said he can’t wait for this matchup, because he knows he will get action. He said you don’t have 108 targets so far this season, and those targets not continuing this week even against him. He has respect for Hopkins and is waiting for the challenge. He said get your popcorn ready. So even Pat is thinking he will actually get balls thrown his way this week. He ain’t named Savage for nothing, pepper pepper dot dot.

    Yeah I got him in 2 out of 20. I feel like thats enough exposure to profit if he goes off and not hurt too much if he puts up the typical WR line versus Peterson.

    I mentioned this last week and caught some flack, yet it turned out to be genius (yes I’ll pat myself on the back here) and that was pivoting off Powell and playing the Cleveland RB hedge…ie playing both the Crow and the Duke. The King and the Duck. Seems like for a combined 8500 the pair is in play again. We don’t expect Cleveland to do much, yet if they are to do anything I’d expect one of these guys to be part of it.

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