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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/15
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Seattle ( -2.5 ) —- T: 49.5

    Sunday, 11/18
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 3 ) at Indianapolis ( -3 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 0 ) at Baltimore ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 1 ) at NY Giants ( -1 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -2.5 ) at Washington ( 2.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 4.5 ) at Atlanta ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -5 ) at Jacksonville ( 5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3.5 ) at Detroit ( 3.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:05 PM EST : Oakland ( 4 ) at Arizona ( -4 ) —- T: 41
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 7 ) at LA Chargers ( -7 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 11/19
    8:15 PM EST : Kansas City ( 2.5 ) at LA Rams ( -2.5 ) —- T: 63.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • 33BeRad

    @BIF said...

    Mike, any sides/totals you like this week ?

    I’m no Mike but I love Indy. Everyone in the world is going to bet on Tenn, as Indy barely got by Jax. And with the way Indy pushes the pace I like the over too.
    I like Atlanta to rebound after that loss. Should’ve seen it coming with it being back to back road games for them. Now at home against Dallas and their big stand alone win. Now Dallas is on the 2nd leg of back to back road games. Atlanta and Dallas both play on Thanksgiving against a divisional opponent so that is a net nuetral.

  • Liquidice944

    Thanks BIFF. Just trying to figure out who to target on the Seahawks side of the ball. Outside of Lockett, it’s a crap shoot and he doesn’t appear to be much of a value after his solid game last week. Lastly, do you think Graham will get up for his revenge game? It feels like a tough spot being that he has been banged up, inconsistent and the Seahawks are good against tight ends. But he is $5,600 which isn’t too bad and I imagine his ownership will be super suppressed. Feels fairly simple to think all the pass volume will go to Davante and MVS, but I guess it most likely will.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    Mike, any sides/totals you like this week ?

    I hit the TB-NYG Over 52 earlier today; both teams have too many quick hitter weapons and both have bad and depleted defenses in the middle plus it’s a short week for Giants and a bounce back Fitz game is incoming. Lavonte David likely going to miss for the Bucs as well so that wipes out their best tackler on a bad tackling/bad angles defense.

    Nothing else jumped out at me besides a couple I’ll have trouble pulling the trigger on like Jax +5.5; this line has recency bias all over it with Pitt surging and Jax tanking but now with Fournette back, they are a diff team and also play against Pitt well. I may not play it straight but may throw it on a 3-teamer and even toss the ML on a cheap parlay as Pitt is due for a bit of a clunker especially after a long break and coming off a gem vs Carolina.

    Another one I’ll likely play is Cincy at +4 or ML as I think this one stays close and Cincy pulls the upset. Neither Jax or Cincy will draw much cash from me.

    Unless I’m reading it wrong, play the over in NO’s/Philly. NO’s should atttack Vs the bottom 3 secondary Philly will have on the field. Think they score 35 plus, Philly good for 27 plus. Looks easy.

    I like the NY/TB over too. Just checked on weather about a bit ago and it’s not an issue. The David being out makes me want to stack game a bit more. That TB D is basically what you watch in the 4th qtr of a preseason game quality. Really really bad Vs the all pro quality skill guys of NY. No wind, no worries.

    Car should be favored by 7. I’d bet it early. People in Chicago have been talking about how disinterested Det looked and after Car got humiliated 10 days ago I’d bet that Veteran team looks very interested. Losing Tate just seemed to push them over the edge and they really MJ to play or I really don’t know how they stay with Car.

    Da Bears- I’m going to the game and I don’t think I’m being biased when I say I think we kick the crap out of Minny. No respect for Trubisky and the Bears and the part that most are missing is they just keep getting better. How many teams can you say that about? Bears, NO, pIT, who else? Bears D loaded at every level, O filled with difference makers too. Nagy took it easy, made sure we got a couple wins, he keeps talking about how happy he is about where we and Trubisky are and he means it. Trubisky going to be a stud. He’s got moxy, humble and the hardest working guy in the building. He won’t stop till he gets it and most miss that that’s all that matters.

    I want to repeat this, it won’t be a close game, the Bears kick the crap out of them early and often. My same prediction 2 weeks in a row.

  • BIF

    @Liquidice944 said...

    Thanks BIFF. Just trying to figure out who to target on the Seahawks side of the ball. Outside of Lockett, it’s a crap shoot and he doesn’t appear to be much of a value after his solid game last week. Lastly, do you think Graham will get up for his revenge game? It feels like a tough spot being that he has been banged up, inconsistent and the Seahawks are good against tight ends. But he is $5,600 which isn’t too bad and I imagine his ownership will be super suppressed. Feels fairly simple to think all the pass volume will go to Davante and MVS, but I guess it most likely will.

    I’m not sure Graham plays – he’s taking the flight but only rode the stationary bike at practice. If he is out, ARod will rely on his WRs more than a backup TE who usually stays in to block. It’s a trust thing there so I wouldn’t punt TE as even if one lucks into a TD, their ceiling is still about 8.5-9 points which won’t be enough with all the options in this game.

  • mike42

    Bif- I don’t know what you are seeing from Cincy or Jax, especially cincy. I can see Jax keeping it close but could also see this being a bad Bordles game. Pit revenge angle is legit since they ended their season and that should trump complacency. Matchup is awful for Bordles, no easy dumpoffs like Indy. Pit brings pressure at a high rate Vs bad O-line. Pit O-line should lead to good day for Ben and Conner vs a barely there front 7.

    Balt coming of bye should play hard to save a players coaches job. Hue and Marvin putting their heads together could lead to civil unrest. I’m not touching either of those but good luck.

  • BIF

    @33BeRad said...

    I’m no Mike but I love Indy. Everyone in the world is going to bet on Tenn, as Indy barely got by Jax. And with the way Indy pushes the pace I like the over too.
    I like Atlanta to rebound after that loss. Should’ve seen it coming with it being back to back road games for them. Now at home against Dallas and their big stand alone win. Now Dallas is on the 2nd leg of back to back road games. Atlanta and Dallas both play on Thanksgiving against a divisional opponent so that is a net nuetral.

    Looking at Atlanta too but I’m not all the way their yet – wanna watch that 1st H they played last week – don’t care about the 2nd H once they were down big but wanna see the 1st H again.

    I was all over Clev last week + the points and on the ML; such a great spot for them and let down B2B road game for ATL.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Unless I’m reading it wrong, play the over in NO’s/Philly. NO’s should atttack Vs the bottom 3 secondary Philly will have on the field. Think they score 35 plus, Philly good for 27 plus. Looks easy.

    I like the NY/TB over too. Just checked on weather about a bit ago and it’s not an issue. The David being out makes me want to stack game a bit more. That TB D is basically what you watch in the 4th qtr of a preseason game quality. Really really bad Vs the all pro quality skill guys of NY. No wind, no worries.

    Car should be favored by 7. I’d bet it early. People in Chicago have been talking about how disinterested Det looked and after Car got humiliated 10 days ago I’d bet that Veteran team looks very interested. Losing Tate just seemed to push them over the edge and they really MJ to play or I really don’t know how they stay with Car.

    Da Bears- I’m going to the game and I don’t think I’m being biased when I say I think we kick the crap out of Minny. No respect for Trubisky and the Bears and the part that most are missing is they just keep getting better. How many teams can you say that about? Bears, NO, pIT, who else? Bears D loaded at every level, O filled with difference makers too. Nagy took it easy, made sure we got a couple wins, he keeps talking about how happy he is about where we and Trubisky are and he means it. Trubisky going to be a stud. He’s got moxy, humble and the hardest working guy in the building. He won’t stop till he gets it and most miss that that’s all that matters.

    I want to repeat this, it won’t be a close game, the Bears kick the crap out of them early and often. My same prediction 2 weeks in a row.

    Agree on Carolina, thanks for the push as I was mostly there and Marvin not playing would take me over the top even if I have to lay an extra point if announced out; he probably means more than a point as they’ll lock down Golliday and then it’s just Theo to worry about as I don’t think Kerryon does much this week from a “helping them win” point of view but is still interesting DFS-wise for his volume. This could be one to throw a few bucks on an Alternate Line prop play like Car -11 for something like +300.

    Not sold on Bears yet this week as big divisional game and Vikes have had an extra week to get healthy and prepare. Looking forward to seeing the game but not sure I’ll have a horse in the race.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Bif- I don’t know what you are seeing from Cincy or Jax, especially cincy. I can see Jax keeping it close but could also see this being a bad Bordles game. Pit revenge angle is legit since they ended their season and that should trump complacency. Matchup is awful for Bordles, no easy dumpoffs like Indy. Pit brings pressure at a high rate Vs bad O-line. Pit O-line should lead to good day for Ben and Conner vs a barely there front 7.

    Balt coming of bye should play hard to save a players coaches job. Hue and Marvin putting their heads together could lead to civil unrest. I’m not touching either of those but good luck.

    I always try to find 2 ugly non-public underdog plays each week and throw something on them; not a lot unless I actually like it and these are my two.

    Last week I loved my two uglys in Clev and NYG which I hit big bets on their sides and ML’s.

    I’ll probably have a little more on Cincy as it’s an anti-Lamar play more than anything else and getting more than a FG on a divisional game is good enough for me. Jax is more just a hunch that they show up as this is prob a must win for them to try and save the season but it’ll be a small wager.

  • deactivated204643

    @Callahan said...

    Thanks for the offer. How often were the Falcons stacking the box vs Chubb? Are they just losing the line of scrimmage battle or getting caught in formations without enough guys to stop the run?

    ATL had 8 in the box often because CLV was playing a lot of 2TE sets. CLV ran at it anyway and had success beating them at the LoS. At one point CLV went to a 3 RB, 1TE set for an entire drive early in the 2ndQ. It was working well until they got cute with the RB throwing an int when targeting Mayfield. I’m looking forward to CLV coming out of the bye. Kitchens has really changed things up. CLV still a run first team but the passing game looked better with more depth on the pass routes. I wonder what he does with an extra week. CLV D can be a dfs asset. They have some talent and they’re aggressive.

  • deactivated204643

    @jhpog said...

    If you’re looking at all 22s I’d love some insight into Golladay. Was he getting much focus prior to Jones going down and the team needing to throw to catch up? Not just from Stafford, but focus from the defense as well.

    I think BIF is right but I’m curious myself about DET and Golladay so I’ll check this out next.

  • deactivated204643

    @mike42 said...

    Also, tomorrow we should feature asses in the GIF’s. I’m not a foot fetish person, maybe every other Friday or so. Watch, all the sudden the forum will be back to a 100 pages by lock just because you can’t read a post without looking at T&A.

    I’m on board

  • BIF

    @bluebroker said...

    ATL had 8 in the box often because CLV was playing a lot of 2TE sets. CLV ran at it anyway and had success beating them at the LoS. At one point CLV went to a 3 RB, 1TE set for an entire drive early in the 2ndQ. It was working well until they got cute with the RB throwing an int when targeting Mayfield. I’m looking forward to CLV coming out of the bye. Kitchens has really changed things up. CLV still a run first team but the passing game looked better with more depth on the pass routes. I wonder what he does with an extra week. CLV D can be a dfs asset. They have some talent and they’re aggressive.

    Agree and also it is worth noting that Landry was not much of a factor

  • deactivated204643

    @BIF said...

    I’m not sure Graham plays –

    I think he plays. He was interviewed after the MIA game. I mention it b/c he rarely gives them. He seemed in good spirits. He got his knee banged up in preseason practice and they’ve been giving him regular days off weekly. I’ve been bearish on him all season but it’s hard to be choosy in the TE market.

  • Alergic2Winning

    Tell my why nobody is mentioning Larry Fitzgerald?
    Targets are up since new OC (Byron Leftwich has verbally committed to the Arians way). Raiders are in free fall.

    His floor is 1x and he’s cap relief. Almost a free square.

  • deactivated204643

    @Alergic2Winning said...

    Tell my why nobody is mentioning Larry Fitzgerald?
    Targets are up since new OC (Byron Leftwich has verbally committed to the Arians way). Raiders are in free fall.

    His floor is 1x and he’s cap relief. Almost a free square.

    Adam Levitan would say because he’s old. I think he’s a reasonable play vs the Raiders. Fitz or Kirk will be a good play but it probably won’t be both. I don’t think we can expect Rosen to support two WRs right now. DJ will continue to get his share of the passing targets so there aren’t a lot to go around.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    Anyone know how Giants do vs slot receivers? I think Humphries is the slot receiver for TB. Just trying to expand my options for cheap wrs.

  • 33BeRad

    Who on Philly would be their deep threat? J. Brown, Ridley, Cooks, DJax all had great games against NO.

    EDIT: Am I wrong in that they don’t really have one? I think that might be their downfall against the Saints as that is how you beat them offensively. Maybe Saints just keep on rolling

  • Messiah717

    @33BeRad said...

    Who on Philly would be their deep threat? J. Brown, Ridley, Cooks, DJax all had great games against NO.

    EDIT: Am I wrong in that they don’t really have one? I think that might be their downfall against the Saints as that is how you beat them offensively. Maybe Saints just keep on rolling

    Agholor

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Lots of things to consider this week. Thanks blue, BIF, and mike for getting things moving. Too bad I didn’t get on the Chubb train last week. I thought he had a negative game script (should have listened to BIF there).

    Unfortunately coming from a Lions fan I would say load up on CAR. I’m not sure how that game stays close tbh so I’d hammer everything in favor of CAR. Besides Newton I’m having trouble figuring out if I want Olsen or CMC more (haven’t looked at pricing but with this considered I’d probably lean Olsen). Stafford needs a safety valve and that was Tate. One I’m going to be watching for is if they activate Ellington and run him from the slot. If they do then I see him as a great play because Stafford needs a safety valve on the inside with all his blocking TEs. I could see this game going under, only for the fact DET might only hang up 10.

  • frUnk

    If I’m going low cost at RB on DK, give me Josh Adams @ $3300. Is this the week Pederson finally gives this guy 15+ carries? He keeps saying he needs to run more at every post game press conference. After last week’s game, he went into the press conference and said he needed to get Josh Adams more touches, BEFORE he was asked a single question, because he knew the press would be asking him about Adams. Philly sports media are ruthless, you can’t keep saying you’re going to do something, and keep not doing it. They will eat a coach alive.

    Adams is clearly their best runner, but they keep playing Smallwood and Clement, who really are nothing but change of pace/pass catching talent. Adams has 60% of the Eagles runs over 15 yards, on only 12% of the carries. His 5.7 YPC ranks 6th in the NFL, granted his sample size is small due to his limited usage.

    Over the past month, he’s averaging 6.3 YPC, second-highest in the NFL during that span behind only Aaron Jones of the Packers (7.5 average). They finally fed Jones last week, and he was in the winning Milly lineup.

    I don’t think the Eagles want to go into the Superdome, and get into a shoot out with the Saints. They need to try and control the clock and let their defense rest. Adams is their best chance to keep drives going. Will Pederson finally unleash Adams? I don’t know, but you win GPPs by finding the low owned plays that go off, before they go off. This could be that week for Adams.

  • Brian7479

    @mike42 said...

    That’s the thing, I don’t think Dirk should use Barber more this game I almost know he will. He has too. He took over play calling and they got yards but not points. He has to put his touch on it and how can u do that with a team that has passed more aggressively than any team in recent memory? You mix in the run more, there is no other option. They are at one extreme and he has to show a reason he took it over. That’s my thesis for 20 touches. It’s not a hope thing I think, it’s a probability play in a game that may provide the first favorable game script for Barber in a while. The last part is hopeful, either team can jump out in this one but the odds are better than they would be most weeks.

    I like Barber too at his price on DK. The only question for me is I say there’s a 50/50 chance he ends up with favorable game script. Bucs defense is still really bad and either of these teams can end up having a lead. Personally I see this being a close game and like a few pieces for DFS. Don’t ban me from the forum but I’ll throw Eli in a few lineups too priced at QB20 for the main slate on FD. Really like Sterling Shepard and maybe coming around to Engram as well. Will obviously have some OBJ because well it’s Tampa. I do like the idea of running it back with Barber in hopes of Tampa getting a lead or atleast roughly tied. Alf Morris didn’t show it because he’s Alf Morris but Brieda and AD showed us that the Giants run D is pretty bad without Snacks. Barbers price on DK is too appealing which is a bit scary depending on if the podcasts all mention him and his ownership gets up there

  • NDNole

    @frUnk said...

    If I’m going low cost at RB on DK, give me Josh Adams @ $3300. Is this the week Pederson finally gives this guy 15+ carries? He keeps saying he needs to run more at every post game press conference. After last week’s game, he went into the press conference and said he needed to get Josh Adams more touches, BEFORE he was asked a single question, because he knew the press would be asking him about Adams. Philly sports media are ruthless, you can’t keep saying you’re going to do something, and keep not doing it. They will eat a coach alive.

    Adams is clearly their best runner, but they keep playing Smallwood and Clement, who really are nothing but change of pace/pass catching talent. Adams has 60% of the Eagles runs over 15 yards, on only 12% of the carries. His 5.7 YPC ranks 6th in the NFL, granted his sample size is small due to his limited usage.

    Over the past month, he’s averaging 6.3 YPC, second-highest in the NFL during that span behind only Aaron Jones of the Packers (7.5 average). They finally fed Jones last week, and he was in the winning Milly lineup.

    I don’t think the Eagles want to go into the Superdome, and get into a shoot out with the Saints. They need to try and control the clock and let their defense rest. Adams is their best chance to keep drives going. Will Pederson finally unleash Adams? I don’t know, but you win GPPs by finding the low owned plays that go off, before they go off. This could be that week for Adams.

    Im on the Josh Adams train the next time eagles play at home. Not gonna go that route on the road against the breezes where they will need to score in bunches.

  • brendanhorton

    Ricky Seals-Jones got 9 targets last week. Was this due to something that the Chiefs were doing defensively/are weak against, or maybe is this also a part of Byron Leftwich’s new offensive scheme? KC seems pretty middling against TE, on the weaker end, but not an extremely exploitable spot. He’s only $5,200 on FD this week, and am considering him in a GPP stack with Larry Fitz and DJ if it could encompass almost all of Rosen’s targets (they received 28 of his 39 attempts last week), and be very affordable. Earlier in the year, RSJ was really talked down by a lot of sharps, but if his role is increasing, better to try and get some usage out of him before potential price increase.

  • keephustlincuz

    @brendanhorton said...

    Ricky Seals-Jones got 9 targets last week. Was this due to something that the Chiefs were doing defensively/are weak against, or maybe is this also a part of Byron Leftwich’s new offensive scheme? KC seems pretty middling against TE, on the weaker end, but not an extremely exploitable spot. He’s only $5,200 on FD this week, and am considering him in a GPP stack with Larry Fitz and DJ if it could encompass almost all of Rosen’s targets (they received 28 of his 39 attempts last week), and be very affordable. Earlier in the year, RSJ was really talked down by a lot of sharps, but if his role is increasing, better to try and get some usage out of him before potential price increase.

    DJ, RSJ and ARI DST.

    I have quite a bit of this stack.

  • mike42

    @hautalak said...

    Lots of things to consider this week. Thanks blue, BIF, and mike for getting things moving. Too bad I didn’t get on the Chubb train last week. I thought he had a negative game script (should have listened to BIF there).

    Unfortunately coming from a Lions fan I would say load up on CAR. I’m not sure how that game stays close tbh so I’d hammer everything in favor of CAR. Besides Newton I’m having trouble figuring out if I want Olsen or CMC more (haven’t looked at pricing but with this considered I’d probably lean Olsen). Stafford needs a safety valve and that was Tate. One I’m going to be watching for is if they activate Ellington and run him from the slot. If they do then I see him as a great play because Stafford needs a safety valve on the inside with all his blocking TEs. I could see this game going under, only for the fact DET might only hang up 10.

    You know, I haven’t been looking for fantasy goodness in this game. Two slow teams, one is lost on O. I’m sure a couple will post good games but I’m used exactly zero mental energy trying to figure out who. KJ is one my list just because he is mispriced and it’s obvious. Dj Moore would seem like a good one too, think he benefits from a shaky secondary and a fast track.

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