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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/15
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Seattle ( -2.5 ) —- T: 49.5

    Sunday, 11/18
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 3 ) at Indianapolis ( -3 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 0 ) at Baltimore ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 1 ) at NY Giants ( -1 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -2.5 ) at Washington ( 2.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 4.5 ) at Atlanta ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -5 ) at Jacksonville ( 5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3.5 ) at Detroit ( 3.5 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:05 PM EST : Oakland ( 4 ) at Arizona ( -4 ) —- T: 41
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 7 ) at LA Chargers ( -7 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 7.5 ) at New Orleans ( -7.5 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 11/19
    8:15 PM EST : Kansas City ( 2.5 ) at LA Rams ( -2.5 ) —- T: 63.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    I like that J. Adams call, what I don’t like is if it plays out he may suck the life out of the game. Think if you use him, do it as a 1 off from the game and stack another game.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @mike42 said...

    You know, I haven’t been looking for fantasy goodness in this game.

    There might not be a lot lol I’d like the under here for sure. As much as I hate it I pretty much have played Cam all season long because of the rushing TD (RZ carries) and yards equity. Looks like he and Olsen are meshing again so I think that will be my focus on this one. Samuel had his turn so I could get on board with Moore again. Of course we could (but probably won’t) get a Funchess game. All in all not much looking forward to the Lions getting steamrolled. CAR D is in play too.

    With all that being said I typically always play at least one homer stack so it’ll be Stafford/Golladay and maybe add in KJ or even Ellington if he plays. DET has played some teams they should lose to well in the past so it’s a possibility but I’m not holding out hope.

  • NDNole

    I think people are going to sleep on Riddick and the more I think about it he will be my low cost punt on DK. I mean wouldn’t you take golden tate for 4k? He is basically taking over his role and while still being called an RB to boot. Sure ellington may bite into that at some point but not this game as he is still getting used to the team. My last post about it lol.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @NDNole said...

    not this game

    I’ll have to be on the lookout. I guess my main point is the next guy I want on the Lions is who is lining up in the slot most often.

  • Soma919

    I wouldn’t touch Josh Adams on the road against the Saints this week. Too many things going against him, crowded backfield, negative game script, good saints run D. I like the DJ RSJ Ariz D stack this week as well. I will have some of that stack but I prefer DJ Ariz D more, its hard to get excited about more than a couple pieces of the Cardinals O.

    On FD this week I would like to take some Connor but I cant bring myself to do it with Zeke $100 cheaper. I foresee a lot of Zeke, DJ and Dion Lewis in my future. John Brown is way too cheap at 5,400. Even if its Lamar Jackson throwing him the ball the Bengals are a mess right now on D. Im having a hard time finding a lot of Ds that I like but as of right now its mostly Bal and Ari. I also think this a spot where Jack Doyle becomes the beneficiary of one or two of those touchdowns that went to Ebron and Alie Cox last week.

  • mike42

    @Soma919 said...

    I wouldn’t touch Josh Adams on the road against the Saints this week. Too many things going against him, crowded backfield, negative game script, good saints run D. I like the DJ RSJ Ariz D stack this week as well. I will have some of that stack but I prefer DJ Ariz D more, its hard to get excited about more than a couple pieces of the Cardinals O.

    On FD this week I would like to take some Connor but I cant bring myself to do it with Zeke $100 cheaper. I foresee a lot of Zeke, DJ and Dion Lewis in my future. John Brown is way too cheap at 5,400. Even if its Lamar Jackson throwing him the ball the Bengals are a mess right now on D. Im having a hard time finding a lot of Ds that I like but as of right now its mostly Bal and Ari. I also think this a spot where Jack Doyle becomes the beneficiary of one or two of those touchdowns that went to Ebron and Alie Cox last week.

    Yes, keep Doyle on your radar from here on out. He’s going to have an 8-80-2 day before season ends. I think they get TY going this week, he adds another element to that O and Reich knows it. Basically, short passsing game, solid running game and TY over the top. He’s underpriced and no way he doesn’t put up a GPP winning week soon. I’m on him this week.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    I like that J. Adams call, what I don’t like is if it plays out he may suck the life out of the game. Think if you use him, do it as a 1 off from the game and stack another game.

    Agree and even then I’m not sure I like the game script for Josh to get a ton of run; while he deserves 50%+ of the snaps, I’m not sure how many of those (if he got them) would actually turn into touches/targets given the likelihood of a shootout and the fact youbtypically beat (or have success against) NO thru the air.

  • Brian7479

    @BIF said...

    Mike, any sides/totals you like this week ?

    I hit the TB-NYG Over 52 earlier today; both teams have too many quick hitter weapons and both have bad and depleted defenses in the middle plus it’s a short week for Giants and a bounce back Fitz game is incoming. Lavonte David likely going to miss for the Bucs as well so that wipes out their best tackler on a bad tackling/bad angles defense.

    Nothing else jumped out at me besides a couple I’ll have trouble pulling the trigger on like Jax +5.5; this line has recency bias all over it with Pitt surging and Jax tanking but now with Fournette back, they are a diff team and also play against Pitt well. I may not play it straight but may throw it on a 3-teamer and even toss the ML on a cheap parlay as Pitt is due for a bit of a clunker especially after a long break and coming off a gem vs Carolina.

    Another one I’ll likely play is Cincy at +4 or ML as I think this one stays close and Cincy pulls the upset. Neither Jax or Cincy will draw much cash from me.

    Don’t know if I’d have the balls to touch that Cincy 4. I know it’s a division game and Baltimore has dropped 3 straight but that Cincy D is terrible. Couple that with Cincy taking the first game, Baltimore needing a win and Cincinnati offense struggling without AJG and I don’t have the balls. Think Baltimore actually comes out of the bye refreshed and their defense really controls this game. Don’t want to talk you off of it though if it wins. Even though it’s on the road look into a bounce back from Carolina. Especially if Marvin Jones is out. I can see a big game from Cam here. Question for DFS is if Detroit can push him to keep putting up points. Another one I find interesting is the over. In the Indy game on the fast track. Tennessee offense has looked better the past few weeks and Indys last 6 games have gone 71, 62, 76, 42(Buffalo only scored 5 points), 70 and 55. Those are some high numbers outside of the Bills only putting up 5 points. I believe Shady left that game early in the first so that didn’t help either. Titans defense has looked good the past 2 weeks but I feel like Indy puts up points with volume if not efficiency. I will mention that Tennessee Indy games the past few years have been lower scoring where as the Indy Tennessee games have been higher scoring. Honestly if I had to pick one play this week it would be Baltimore -4. Think the KC game easily could hit 75 but kind of has that trappish feeling to it

  • Gtzerphy

    @frUnk said...

    If I’m going low cost at RB on DK, give me Josh Adams @ $3300. Is this the week Pederson finally gives this guy 15+ carries? He keeps saying he needs to run more at every post game press conference. After last week’s game, he went into the press conference and said he needed to get Josh Adams more touches, BEFORE he was asked a single question, because he knew the press would be asking him about Adams. Philly sports media are ruthless, you can’t keep saying you’re going to do something, and keep not doing it. They will eat a coach alive.

    Adams is clearly their best runner, but they keep playing Smallwood and Clement, who really are nothing but change of pace/pass catching talent. Adams has 60% of the Eagles runs over 15 yards, on only 12% of the carries. His 5.7 YPC ranks 6th in the NFL, granted his sample size is small due to his limited usage.

    Over the past month, he’s averaging 6.3 YPC, second-highest in the NFL during that span behind only Aaron Jones of the Packers (7.5 average). They finally fed Jones last week, and he was in the winning Milly lineup.

    I don’t think the Eagles want to go into the Superdome, and get into a shoot out with the Saints. They need to try and control the clock and let their defense rest. Adams is their best chance to keep drives going. Will Pederson finally unleash Adams? I don’t know, but you win GPPs by finding the low owned plays that go off, before they go off. This could be that week for Adams.

    Don’t go down that rabbit hole, you’ve been warned.

  • TopDawgs07

    @Gtzerphy said...

    Don’t go down that rabbit hole, you’ve been warned.

    Agreed. That very well may end up being the plan the Eagles have heading into the game, but I believe NO will force them to throw. The Saints are on fire, play great run defense, and are in the dome. It’s a majority of the reason I like Wentz this week, I think the Eagles will be forced to keep up. So Adams might be a good play in coming weeks, but probably not this week.

  • Liquidice944

    @mike42 said...

    Great GIF, excited about ass day.

    Also, yes, keep Doyle on your radar from here on out. He’s going to have an 8-80-2 day before season ends. I think they get TY going this week, he adds another element to that O and Reich knows it. Basically, short passsing game, solid running game and TY over the top. He’s underpriced and no way he doesn’t put up a GPP winning week soon. I’m on him this week.

    Mike, will the Hawks keep Aaron jones in check tomorrow night?

  • ASitar

    @33BeRad said...

    How is it a revenge game?

    “In a sense”. Not because he played for them but he loves to give it to the Giants. He’s had a long history of playing them and I think he likes to burn them when he plays them.

  • mike42

    @Liquidice944 said...

    Mike, will the Hawks keep Aaron jones in check tomorrow night?

    I’m leaning yes, they stop him. It’s a nice thought, GB finally goes balanced. It’s just that I like the chances of sea playing with a lead in part just because of the whole short week/home team angle and because you can run on GB. If that happens, GB will forget about him, sea totally different that home Vs Mia. Just don’t like chances of the run game getting into a rhythm with the crowd noise and th simple fact is Sea is weak at cb and strong at LB. Makes sense to attack Sea on the outside and that’s what GB likes to do anyway. He could still bust a big run or 2, make the winning LU. I’m just focusing on GB passing game for showdown and mixing it up on Sea’s side with Baldwin being my lock.

  • Liquidice944

    @mike42 said...

    I’m leaning yes, they stop him. It’s a nice thought, GB finally goes balanced. It’s just that I like the chances of sea playing with a lead in part just because of the whole short week/home team angle and because you can run on GB. If that happens, GB will forget about him, sea totally different that home Vs Mia. Just don’t like chances of the run game getting into a rhythm with the crowd noise and th simple fact is Sea is weak at cb and strong at LB. Makes sense to attack Sea on the outside and that’s what GB likes to do anyway. He could still bust a big run or 2, make the winning LU. I’m just focusing on GB passing game for showdown and mixing it up on Sea’s side with Baldwin being my lock.

    Love it. Thank you for analysis.

  • deeebo

    @mike42 said...

    I’m leaning yes, they stop him. It’s a nice thought, GB finally goes balanced. It’s just that I like the chances of sea playing with a lead in part just because of the whole short week/home team angle and because you can run on GB. If that happens, GB will forget about him, sea totally different that home Vs Mia. Just don’t like chances of the run game getting into a rhythm with the crowd noise and th simple fact is Sea is weak at cb and strong at LB. Makes sense to attack Sea on the outside and that’s what GB likes to do anyway. He could still bust a big run or 2, make the winning LU. I’m just focusing on GB passing game for showdown and mixing it up on Sea’s side with Baldwin being my lock.

    Quick question for season long fantasy – Boyd/Hilton/A jones – have to pick 2. Im thinking hilton and A jones. Bench Boyd. Thoughts?

  • keephustlincuz

    @deeebo said...

    Quick question for season long fantasy – Boyd/Hilton/A jones – have to pick 2. Im thinking hilton and A jones. Bench Boyd. Thoughts?

    Paging raymond……

  • mike42

    @deeebo said...

    Quick question for season long fantasy – Boyd/Hilton/A jones – have to pick 2. Im thinking hilton and A jones. Bench Boyd. Thoughts?

    Most would play TY and Jones. Unless I feel really good I try to go with the flow, GPP’s are different. I’d just bench Boyd but I see BIF’s angle, cincy could have Balt’s number, dalton plays better on the road and Boyd is all they have in the passing game.

  • deactivated204643

    @Liquidice944 said...

    Mike, will the Hawks keep Aaron jones in check tomorrow night?

    From JMtoWin:

    Only three teams are allowing more yards per carry than the Seahawks and their up-and-down run D. Because of the low play volume the Seahawks allow, they rank only middle of the pack in yards allowed to running backs, but their 4.55 YPC allowed to running backs is clearly attackable.

  • sfguy21

    @ASitar said...

    “In a sense”. Not because he played for them but he loves to give it to the Giants. He’s had a long history of playing them and I think he likes to burn them when he plays them.

    That’s just having a good history against a team. Not a revenge game.

  • mike42

    @bluebroker said...

    From JMtoWin:

    Only three teams are allowing more yards per carry than the Seahawks and their up-and-down run D. Because of the low play volume the Seahawks allow, they rank only middle of the pack in yards allowed to running backs, but their 4.55 YPC allowed to running backs is clearly attackable.

    I actually came back to post about that, they have given up a lot at home and KJ Wright did not finish last game, did not know that. Read a stat earlier this year that he shaves a yard per carry off sea’s run D when he’s in there. He matters and is questionable. He’s out, that changes my thesis. I still do have a feeling that sea plays with a lead and it’s telling that they didn’t even run the ball 20x in an ideal game script. Idk, still processing all of this but he may be 70 plus percent owned and most of me still says be under on him.

  • BIF

    Tomorrow’s Showdown is going to be fun as there are a lot of ways to play that one; two great QBs, 5 playable RBs, 7-8 WR’s (Cobb ??), 3-4 TEs (Graham’s knee ??) along with a couple good kickers and a couple defenses who have had a wide range of outcomes so far.

  • deactivated204643

    I posted this on Oct 15th:

    “”(player-popup #aaron-jones)Aaron Jones”:/players/aaron-jones-36871. Yup, it’s getting old. MM is a stubborn f**k who keeps saying “there’s more to RB than just running the football”. That’s bullshit. Aaron Jones has rated well as a pass blocker this year. Yes, JWilliams is a little better pass blocker. Montgomery has improved too. This is about MM being an idiot, nothing more. Like JGruden as a GM, MM is the smartest guy in the room..according to him. Eventually the GB season will start to slip away and MM will be forced to play AJones regularly.”

    AJ was targeted in the pass game 3 times on GB first drive last week…when the season was slipping away

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @BIF said...

    Tomorrow’s Showdown is going to be fun as there are a lot of ways to play that one; two great QBs, 5 playable RBs, 7-8 WR’s (Cobb ??), 3-4 TEs (Graham’s knee ??) along with a couple good kickers and a couple defenses who have had a wide range of outcomes so far.

    You think we get a unique winner?

  • deactivated204643

    @BIF said...

    Tomorrow’s Showdown is going to be fun as there are a lot of ways to play that one; two great QBs, 5 playable RBs, 7-8 WR’s (Cobb ??), 3-4 TEs (Graham’s knee ??) along with a couple good kickers and a couple defenses who have had a wide range of outcomes so far.

    Cobb is out so we’ll see a lot of MVS in the slot. I know I’ve talked about Adams and Jones but I still like MVS. His ownership just got out of hand last week.

  • BIF

    @hautalak said...

    You think we get a unique winner?

    That all depends how it plays out – I doubt it as I think there are going to 4-5 core plays (of the 8-10 best options) on most lineups and a flier type of play so if that type of combo hits it’ll be won with 20-70 dupes.

    If it is a weird night where Prosise scores then maybe we get a unique winner but this one feels like a multi-dupes winner.

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