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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/19
    8:20 PM EST : Arizona ( 3.5 ) at Seattle ( -3.5 ) —- T: 57.5

    Sunday, 11/22
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 6.5 ) at Baltimore ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6.5 ) at New Orleans ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( 2.5 ) at Houston ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Cleveland ( -3.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at Carolina ( -3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -10 ) at Jacksonville ( 10 ) —- T: 46
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 9.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -9.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( -2.5 ) at Denver ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -1.5 ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 9 ) at Minnesota ( -9 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Kansas City ( -7 ) at Las Vegas ( 7 ) —- T: 55

    Monday, 11/23
    8:15 PM EST : LA Rams ( 3.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -3.5 ) —- T: 49

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    Sorry all, I grabbed the wrong week as the Week 11 wasn’t up yet I guess – here it is

    https://www.actionnetwork.com/fantasy-football/week-11-wr-cb-matchups-shadow-grades-2020

    Get your shit together BIF. That’s time in our lives we will never get back:)

    Do you think Hous’s O will have a pretty easy time Vs NE this week? I’m honestly confused on “how” NE’s D is rated soo low.

  • squidkill

    New Englands defense is still average at best- They have a slow and week LB core, they don’t generate pressure up front. The only spot they are above average is their secondary. The weather last week help a lot in neutralizing Baltimores offense- Although Baltimore’s offense is a puddle of itself. I wouldn’t shy away from Houston in any way.

  • squidkill

    Mike, my DFS game is slumping- Where is the best spot to obtain DK crowns? I tried FB marketplace. Need to go a little seedier.

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    New Englands defense is still average at best- They have a slow and week LB core, they don’t generate pressure up front. The only spot they are above average is their secondary. The weather last week help a lot in neutralizing Baltimores offense- Although Baltimore’s offense is a puddle of itself. I wouldn’t shy away from Houston in any way.

    So Duke has a great matchup?

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    Mike, my DFS game is slumping- Where is the best spot to obtain DK crowns? I tried FB marketplace. Need to go a little seedier.

    The dark web. It should be right next to your SS#

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Get your shit together BIF. That’s time in our lives we will never get back:)

    Do you think Hous’s O will have a pretty easy time Vs NE this week? I’m honestly confused on “how” NE’s D is rated soo low.

    Ha ha

    I’m not 100% sure what to think of NE’s D as they have had some really varied results but I don’t think BB has mailed it in and his defenses usually have gotten stronger as the year goes along plus a lot has to do with if Gilmore is back.

    Interesting thing I heard last week on NE’s defensive effort vs. Baltimore was that they played:
    3 DL
    3 LB
    3 Safeties
    2 CB

    I’m not really playing much Hous offense this week as I do respect the NE D’s ability to keep this game from being super offensive besides a little Duke based on volume and some Cobb based on price and slot is where I think you can be successful.

  • mike42

    Per PFF as it it pertains to Hill the QB:

    Hill seems like a potential question mark at QB, but PFF’s Sam Monson wrote about Hill’s prospects as the full-time starter this summer. Taking into account preseason and regular season passing numbers, Hill has been adequate — 65% completion rate, 7.7 yards per attempt, an average depth of target of 9.1, and a 74.7 PFF grade.

    If Hill can just be average as a passer against a porous Falcons defense on top of his rushing production, he will be a solid QB in Week 11. Since 2018, he leads all QBs in broken tackle rate (32%).

    They sound a lot higher on his passing ability than this forum has been.

  • mike42

    Per PFF, in regards to that clip BIF posted about the Wash S that gets burnt deep a LOT and is going to play because the starter is confirmed out:

    Deshazor Everett, S – Losing Washington’s highest-graded safety would hurt the defense significantly. This team is already without Landon Collins, so if Everett can’t play Troy Apke would get the start.

    Apke is the cheat code that could unlock the Bengals’ deep passing attack. Washington has allowed just 40 passing plays of 15 yards or more this season — the second-lowest mark in the league. Twenty-six of them have come with Apke on the field. As I mentioned in the Week 11 rankings overview, this could be a spot where Tee Higgins blows up.

  • squidkill

    I would say Duke has an excellent matchup this week- He will be lower owned after everyone was burned by him last week. Only downside is Watson rarely checks down to his RB’s.

  • CheeseCutter

    Per Detroit RB coach, AP to “lead it off” against Carolina. Sounds like he gets the bulk of the carries, and is only 5100 on FD.

  • NarrowJ

    NE’s defense aside, I can see them putting up 180+ rushing while the clock ticks away, limiting Hou to 55-60 plays on offense.

    Watch Harris troll us all with a 18-120-3 game and the 0.4 percent of people that accidentally clicked on him win all the money.

  • squidkill

    Sony is now activated off injury- lol

  • NarrowJ

    It keeps getting better haha

  • mike42

    I’m just going to post some of the PFF injury stuff that I find really helpful. This is about Car’s woes and I haven’t heard it talked about anywhere else:

    Russel Okung, T – The Panthers’ highest-graded tackle missed last week and it’s looking iffy on whether he comes back for Week 11. His return would be a great boost, but it may not be detrimental as Trent Scott filled in quite well last week.

    He posted the team’s highest pass-blocking grade (87.2) despite going up against the fierce Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rush. Okung’s loss is still felt most in the run game as Mike Davis has yet to surpass nine fantasy points since Okung has been sidelined.

    John Miller, RB – Miller has been a steady commodity at right guard for the Panthers all season and has missed just one game. That game in Week 7 corresponded with the first game where we saw Davis fail to put up CMC-type numbers. Davis will fall in my rankings if Miller is ruled out.

    Donte Jackson, CB – Action Jackson has been banged up all season with a toe injury, so the team would be wise to sit him. He will be replaced on the outside by rookie Troy Pride Jr. who has really struggled this season with a league-worst 31.6 PFF passing grade. Wheels up for both Marvins on the Lions.

    Both O-line guys are doubtful and that is apparently a big deal for M. Davis chances of smashing. Donte Johnson is also doubtful and remember last year people talking about him being one of the next great cb’s.

    Here is stuff about DET that seemed really helpful:

    Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, WR – Neither starting WRs practiced on Friday so both could easily be unavailable for Sunday’s action. This will thrust Marvin Jones Jr., Marvin Hall and Quintez Cephus into 3-WR sets.

    Jones would rise to at least WR3 status in my rankings and Hall would be a great DFS pay-down option. He is just 3.8K and Carolina has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to WRs in the past two weeks (219 per game).

    This could also move T.J. Hockenson into the slot more based on his 43% snap share from the slot already in 2020. The Panthers have allowed the most yards to TEs in the slot this season.

    Mikey likey Hockenson prop bets.

  • winnerchickendinner

    Just saw Lock threw four picks against the raiders of all teams last week. Definitely locking in Mia now might see a pick six.

  • mike42

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    Just saw Lock threw four picks against the raiders of all teams last week. Definitely locking in Mia now might see a pick six.

    The problem is I don’t think anyone who “just saw” that a QB threw 4 picks 6 days earlier has ever won a chicken dinner.

  • infantryboys

    Stafford has a partial tear in his thumb on his throwing hand. Really doesn’t make me love Detroit pass receivers.

  • KGBKEN

    I like the DET-CAR game for lack of defense…Detroit has been a sieve against all RB’s this year. Second string O-lineman for CAR shouldn’t make a huge difference. I plan to be overweight on Mike Davis. As was mentioned earlier, Stafford’s thumb might be an issue. I could see a thumb injury keeping him from throwing the ball deep and rendering DET to a dink and dunk offense. MJJ in the slot and TE Hockenson should benefit most. I’m not convinced 35 year old AP can take the brunt of the load for a full game at RB. I still think Karryon Johnson makes sense from a receiving back perspective. Coach said KJ will fill Swift’s roll “as much as possible”.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @mike42 said...

    The problem is I don’t think anyone who “just saw” that a QB threw 4 picks 6 days earlier has ever won a chicken dinner.

    uh-huh

  • rjschick92

    Henry is a great contrarian tournament play IMO. Put up nearly a 200 yard game in the postseason on the Ravens so you’re talking about a guy who’s matchup proof and likely sub 5% ownership. Ravens also no Campbell/Williams which is a massive blow to their run D.

  • jdtrey

    @superjon said...

    Projected ownership finally went up on Hill.

    Currently at 77%

    Expected something in the 60-70 range on FD so that’s not too crazy.

    What I found nuts was he’s projected at 21% at QB on DK!! I’ll probably be 80-90% Taysom on FD but can’t imagine breaking 10% on DK and that’s only in quarters and dimes lol

  • SoreOnSunday

    Are we staying away from Herbert because we assume he won’t need to pass often in the 2nd half? feels like when mahommes played the jets and broke the slate…thoughts? (i’m aware Herbert isn’t Mahommes lol)

  • mike42

    @rjschick92 said...

    Henry is a great contrarian tournament play IMO. Put up nearly a 200 yard game in the postseason on the Ravens so you’re talking about a guy who’s matchup proof and likely sub 5% ownership. Ravens also no Campbell/Williams which is a massive blow to their run D.

    I think Henry gets higher ownership than what they think. The issue is TEN’s O-line is screwed too with Scaffold and another out. I guess the backups have not been good either. I just can’t imagine his ownership being low given how everyone watched Balt get chewed up on the ground on SNF after Williams went out.

  • infantryboys

    @SoreOnSunday said...

    Are we staying away from Herbert because we assume he won’t need to pass often in the 2nd half? feels like when mahommes played the jets and broke the slate…thoughts? (i’m aware Herbert isn’t Mahommes lol)

    I’m using Herbert in cash. I think he’s the safest play at QB on the board.

  • mike42

    @infantryboys said...

    I’m using Herbert in cash. I think he’s the safest play at QB on the board.

    It’s entirely possible that the JETs are going to field the worse secondary the NFL has seen this year a week after Lynn got toasted for not letting Hebert do his thing. Toss in that the Jets should be able to put points on the board and it is probably bad process to assume LAC blows anyone out. Jets got a top 10 run D too. Hebert also cut his hair, so there’s that too.

    I have not been following ownership but I hope Hebert is getting ownership and he seems like a fine cash play too. I just M. Williams, and possibly Hunter, are just as good of plays as K. Allen at a lot less ownership.

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