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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/19
    8:20 PM EST : Arizona ( 3.5 ) at Seattle ( -3.5 ) —- T: 57.5

    Sunday, 11/22
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 6.5 ) at Baltimore ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6.5 ) at New Orleans ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( 2.5 ) at Houston ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Cleveland ( -3.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at Carolina ( -3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -10 ) at Jacksonville ( 10 ) —- T: 46
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 9.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -9.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( -2.5 ) at Denver ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -1.5 ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 9 ) at Minnesota ( -9 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Kansas City ( -7 ) at Las Vegas ( 7 ) —- T: 55

    Monday, 11/23
    8:15 PM EST : LA Rams ( 3.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -3.5 ) —- T: 49

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • emnj69

    who has the stones to go back to mike davis? He failed you at min price and now is way more lol

  • mike42

    @emnj69 said...

    who has the stones to go back to mike davis? He failed you at min price and now is way more lol

    What was his ownership?

  • Moszman

    @emnj69 said...

    who has the stones to go back to mike davis? He failed you at min price and now is way more lol

    Absolutely!

  • infantryboys

    @mike42 said...

    Are you sure it hasn’t had a lot to do with Wash being down by 3 scores early in the last 2 games? Wash favored this week and probably plays with a lead vs a D that shouldn’t be able to cover Scary Terry or possibly any of Wash’s WR’s.

    I think it has a lot to do with Smith’s DNA as a QB. He’s always been Cpt Checkdown and it certainly isn’t changing after that horrific leg injury and advanced age. Regardless of game script or game plan, I think we have to accept this is who Smith is and that McKissic will be in play, to one extent or another, every week.

  • infantryboys

    @mike42 said...

    What was his ownership?

    50.1% in my $5 single entry GPP.

  • emnj69

    40-55%
    on dk he was min price 4000 now 6800-clearly a better match up
    I bet this week he will be 5-10% probably closer to 5

  • winnerchickendinner

    @mike42 said...

    Are you sure it hasn’t had a lot to do with Wash being down by 3 scores early in the last 2 games? Wash favored this week and probably plays with a lead vs a D that shouldn’t be able to cover Scary Terry or possibly any of Wash’s WR’s.

    Probably not, 15 and 17 targets means he’s probably taking a split second on McLuarin and then going for the checkdown. And even if it is playing from behind that would be kamara level type usage in the passing game.

  • winnerchickendinner

    For their target share Cooks, Meyers and last time Dalton played Cooper/Lamb seems too cheap.

  • Way2fast23

    Well luckily we know not to play Cooper on the road so Lamb might be the smash play

  • getlucky4

    Picturing zeke busting out vs min and min throwing instead of feeding cook on a contrary lineup. Im on the play connor every week because you have to martingale your bad plays throughout the nfl season.

  • CheeseCutter

    @winnerchickendinner said...

    For their target share Cooks, Meyers and last time Dalton played Cooper/Lamb seems too cheap.

    I agree. My initial Th-M lineups have Meyers, and either Cooper or Lamb, along with Cooks.

    Herbert is cheap (6800) at home against the Jets. Cam (6200) is probably in play stacked with Meyers, as he’s likely to vulture a TD or two against the Houston run D.

  • yisman

    It took until Week 10 but I finally hit ‘Sleeper Starter’ on DK with Jakeem Grant.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    He looked like his main objective was not to turn the ball over. You like any spreads early in the week? I took MIA early, but that’s about it. It feels too easy but I think you just don’t overthink it.

    Agree on Winston and that goalline possession was a perfect example as he took sacks on 2nd and 3rd D where old JW would have forced a throw or tried to throw it away and still get it picked off.

    I hammered Cincy-Wash over 46 and also put up some on TB -3 -120 (seeing -3 130 or -3.5 now)

    Like that Miami side but trying to figure out if it’s a road game favorite with long travel trap as -3.5 Even

  • billythekidcowboysheat

    This week will be a Rarity for me, i really like the below 5k receiver group.

    I don’t recall ever not having at least one guy above 5k, although i may still have a couple but for the most part going into that below 5k group this week.

  • infantryboys

    I get regression to the mean, and I actually like Gibson. But since McKissic got double digit targets twice in a row, in the 2 games in which Smith has played, I think we can definitely entertain the idea that it can happen again.

  • infantryboys

    @BIF said...

    Agree on Winston and that goalline possession was a perfect example as he took sacks on 2nd and 3rd D where old JW would have forced a throw or tried to throw it away and still get it picked off.

    I hammered Cincy-Wash over 46 and also put up some on TB -3 -120 (seeing -3 130 or -3.5 now)

    Like that Miami side but trying to figure out if it’s a road game favorite with long travel trap as -3.5 Even

    Any thoughts on Dallas +9. I think this could be a prime letdown spot for Minnesota coming off a physical win over a division rival on a short week vs a team coming off a bye.

  • BIF

    @infantryboys said...

    Any thoughts on Dallas +9. I think this could be a prime letdown spot for Minnesota coming off a physical win over a division rival on a short week vs a team coming off a bye.

    I don’t like the game personally but if I did anything I’d tease the Vikings down to -2.5

    Cook could go off and Vikings win by 20+ OR the Cowboys scheme well against him and Cousins has a typical erratic passing game so it stays close.

    9 points is a lot to cover for Minny but Cook has that knockout punch where Minny trying to run the clock out on a 3-4 point least and he busts one. He had two good runs last night called back by penalty – he’ll have more chunks vs Cowboys and likely without the flags.

  • mike42

    @infantryboys said...

    I get regression to the mean, and I actually like Gibson. But since McKissic got double digit targets twice in a row, in the 2 games in which Smith has played, I think we can definitely entertain the idea that it can happen again.

    I just went through the play by play and it seems like he was targeting him (and RB’s in general) more early and then caught a bit of a rhythm with his WR’s later in the game and that was the impetus for the comeback. Cincy just gave up 4 TD’s to WR’s too. If McKissic is chalk coming off a game where A. SMith threw it 55x, if feels like it would be bad chalk.

    I’d like Gibson too but I played Conner last week vs them and if you would have told me the final score I would have said he was a lock. IDK y, but he didn’t do anything.

  • Bnett2210

    @mike42 said...

    I just went through the play by play and it seems like he was targeting him (and RB’s in general) more early and then caught a bit of a rhythm with his WR’s later in the game and that was the impetus for the comeback. Cincy just gave up 4 TD’s to WR’s too. If McKissic is chalk coming off a game where A. SMith threw it 55x, if feels like it would be bad chalk.

    I’d like Gibson too but I played Conner last week vs them and if you would have told me the final score I would have said he was a lock. IDK y, but he didn’t do anything.

    Conner didn’t do anything, because our run game has been non existent for weeks. They really have to get it going to be able to win in the playoffs. I imagine Tomlin has seen and heard enough how bad it is, and plans to get it going ASAP. The offense has put points up and been good, but it’s only doing that when they spread them out with all the WRs and Ebron and letting Ben go to work and call the plays.

    It’s just a feeling, but I imagine Tomlin puts a lot of extra emphasis on getting the run game this week and getting the offense moving toward being able to be well rounded especially with Baltimore 4 days later. I believe they will want Ben doing the least possible it takes to get the W, so he is well rested for that one.

  • mike42

    @infantryboys said...

    Any thoughts on Dallas +9. I think this could be a prime letdown spot for Minnesota coming off a physical win over a division rival on a short week vs a team coming off a bye.

    I took it. The spread and the over. Honestly, I don’t hate the money line either. Dal has more talent, underachieved up until Pit before a bye, and now plays Minny in a real tough spot for them. It’s not like Minny/Cousins have a history of doing well in this type of spot either. They can’t just give it to Cook all day coming off what will almost certainly be a league-high in touches for a RB this year and the BEARS hit him hard on most of those touches.

    I think it’s one of those games where the spread and recency bias will I “think” will put people on the wrong pieces, and maybe, the wrong side. With their rookie CB injured and LVE looking like he’s back to being LVE, I think DAL is a pass funnel but just looks like a bad overall D on paper. And Minny is definitely a pass funnel. Love Dal/OVer and I’m stacking the game in the few LU’s I play this week. Total went up a 1 or 1- points today at most places too.

    I just don’t think this is the type of setup where Dal gets its ass kicked unless bad Dalton sabotages the game but the same can be said for Cousins doing the same thing to Minny’s chances. These teams are pretty evenly matched and with no real homefield, no reason for Minny to be giving up over a TD on short rest Vs a team coming off of a bye. You know what they say, never give McCarthy extra time to prepare:;

  • 808state

    lol Vikings are rolling and now they have cake matchups for the next 3 weeks.

  • damionismyname

    • Ranked #92

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Bnett2210 said...

    Conner didn’t do anything, because our run game has been non existent for weeks. They really have to get it going to be able to win in the playoffs. I imagine Tomlin has seen and heard enough how bad it is, and plans to get it going ASAP. The offense has put points up and been good, but it’s only doing that when they spread them out with all the WRs and Ebron and letting Ben go to work and call the plays.

    It’s just a feeling, but I imagine Tomlin puts a lot of extra emphasis on getting the run game this week and getting the offense moving toward being able to be well rounded especially with Baltimore 4 days later. I believe they will want Ben doing the least possible it takes to get the W, so he is well rested for that one.

    https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2020/11/17/james-conner-steelers-running-game-how-to-fix-mike-tomlin/stories/202011170149

  • noddy

    Why is no one mentioning Chubb?

  • DarthPasta

    @noddy said...

    Why is no one mentioning Chubb?

    Scared of the 50/50 with Hunt?

  • axman15

    Couple interesting Patriots this week in Meyers and Harris.

    If Harris was at all involved in the passing game (or around the goal line) he would be a near must play for me.

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