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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/19
    8:20 PM EST : Arizona ( 3.5 ) at Seattle ( -3.5 ) —- T: 57.5

    Sunday, 11/22
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 6.5 ) at Baltimore ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6.5 ) at New Orleans ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( 2.5 ) at Houston ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3.5 ) at Cleveland ( -3.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at Carolina ( -3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 1 ) at Washington ( -1 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -10 ) at Jacksonville ( 10 ) —- T: 46
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 9.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -9.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( -2.5 ) at Denver ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -1.5 ) —- T: 49
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 9 ) at Minnesota ( -9 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Kansas City ( -7 ) at Las Vegas ( 7 ) —- T: 55

    Monday, 11/23
    8:15 PM EST : LA Rams ( 3.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -3.5 ) —- T: 49

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Alvance83

    @BIF said...

    Agree on Winston and that goalline possession was a perfect example as he took sacks on 2nd and 3rd D where old JW would have forced a throw or tried to throw it away and still get it picked off.

    I hammered Cincy-Wash over 46 and also put up some on TB -3 -120 (seeing -3 130 or -3.5 now)

    Like that Miami side but trying to figure out if it’s a road game favorite with long travel trap as -3.5 Even

    I hit the over on GB – IND- 49.5 @ 1.05. I think this game has sneaky shootout written all over it

  • BIF

    @Bnett2210 said...

    Conner didn’t do anything, because our run game has been non existent for weeks. They really have to get it going to be able to win in the playoffs. I imagine Tomlin has seen and heard enough how bad it is, and plans to get it going ASAP. The offense has put points up and been good, but it’s only doing that when they spread them out with all the WRs and Ebron and letting Ben go to work and call the plays.

    It’s just a feeling, but I imagine Tomlin puts a lot of extra emphasis on getting the run game this week and getting the offense moving toward being able to be well rounded especially with Baltimore 4 days later. I believe they will want Ben doing the least possible it takes to get the W, so he is well rested for that one.

    I agree with the premise of needing to get the run game going but I also cannot see Tomlin running Connor too much against Jax and avoid wearing your backs down when you have Balty on the horizon 4 days later in a game you will likely be trying to pound it at the Ravens based on their poor run stopping effort vs Patriots. I get you want to get some live reps trying to pound it but I’d be spreading those carries around this week to keep everyone healthy and not too nicked up. I’m off the Steelers run game as I think they don’t run any one guy enough to smash.

  • mike42

    @damionismyname said...

    https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2020/11/17/james-conner-steelers-running-game-how-to-fix-mike-tomlin/stories/202011170149

    Thanks for the post. When Tomlin says stuff like that, he always means it. It’s nice that both backup RB’s got banged up too.

  • theIrrigator

    • 908

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #29

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Hines smashing again or is it Johnathan Taylor troll week? I’m leaning Hines smashing again

  • superjon

    @theIrrigator said...

    Hines smashing again or is it Johnathan Taylor troll week? I’m leaning Hines smashing again

    Hines feels like the trappiest of traps.

    Taylor might be okay just based on the price drop.

  • Bnett2210

    @damionismyname said...

    https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2020/11/17/james-conner-steelers-running-game-how-to-fix-mike-tomlin/stories/202011170149

    I had a feeling that was going to be one of the main focuses for them this week. I just hope they actually do it.

  • Bnett2210

    @BIF said...

    I agree with the premise of needing to get the run game going but I also cannot see Tomlin running Connor too much against Jax and avoid wearing your backs down when you have Balty on the horizon 4 days later in a game you will likely be trying to pound it at the Ravens based on their poor run stopping effort vs Patriots. I get you want to get some live reps trying to pound it but I’d be spreading those carries around this week to keep everyone healthy and not too nicked up. I’m off the Steelers run game as I think they don’t run any one guy enough to smash.

    I agree with that too. I believe the goal is to get the run game going and after I read the news article that was posted I fully believe they will work on it, because Tomlin usually is a straight shooter and when he says it then he usually follows through. However, I do agree with all of the backs getting to spread the love and the goal I’d say is to get the run game going, but to get out as completely healthy as possible for Baltimore. Here recently they have liked getting McFarland more involved and using his speed, so could be the game they see what they got more with him if they get up on the scoreboard.

    I’m off the run game as well, but as for our passing game, anytime Diontae is under 6k with the target volume he gets when he is healthy he is one of my go to at WR in cash games. 5-6k and getting 10+ Targets in over half his games he’s played, the ones he didn’t he was hurt in, I’ll fire that up all the time safely in cash games too. Not saying he is AB at all but he is AB like with his route running and ability after the catch, and that’s the comparisons they drew coming into the draft, and Ben loves him because he seems to get good separation on his routes enough to get a solid window to throw it in. I look for much of the same this week.

  • emnj69

    want no part of conner but want parts of the passing game

  • BIF

    @Bnett2210 said...

    I’m off the run game as well, but as for our passing game, anytime Diontae is under 6k with the target volume he gets when he is healthy he is one of my go to at WR in cash games. 5-6k and getting 10+ Targets in over half his games he’s played, the ones he didn’t he was hurt in, I’ll fire that up all the time safely in cash games too. Not saying he is AB at all but he is AB like with his route running and ability after the catch, and that’s the comparisons they drew coming into the draft, and Ben loves him because he seems to get good separation on his routes enough to get a solid window to throw it in. I look for much of the same this week.

    I’ve been on Diontae almost every week and at a high ownership – he burned me twice getting hurt and knocked out on his first catch but otherwise he has been great ! He was only 4.3% owned last week to go with a bunch of 1.45% Big Ben stacks which was crazy low versus Cincy and they were only priced at $5200 and $6200. Actually you couldn’t go wrong with any Pitt WR last week as all three went over 20 DK points.

  • emnj69

    @BIF said...

    I’ve been on Diontae almost every week and at a high ownership – he burned me twice getting hurt and knocked out on his first catch but otherwise he has been great ! He was only 4.3% owned last week to go with a bunch of 1.45% Big Ben stacks which was crazy low versus Cincy and they were only priced at $5200 and $6200. Actually you couldn’t go wrong with any Pitt WR last week as all three went over 20 DK points.

    hard to know which pitt wr is going to be the guy thankfully usually the top 3 are similar in price so I build essentially the same team swapping out just the wr for the next pitt wr

    other option I use which also is nothing genius is just play ben alone and not care where the points come from

    I am not on conner-I have seen the jaqs limit some pretty good rbs this year-they have been burned by guys with a certain skill set like mixon and swift but jones and henry did not explode vs them by any means

  • Bnett2210

    @BIF said...

    I’ve been on Diontae almost every week and at a high ownership – he burned me twice getting hurt and knocked out on his first catch but otherwise he has been great ! He was only 4.3% owned last week to go with a bunch of 1.45% Big Ben stacks which was crazy low versus Cincy and they were only priced at $5200 and $6200. Actually you couldn’t go wrong with any Pitt WR last week as all three went over 20 DK points.

    Yea I’ve played Diontae every week as well, the weeks he got injured hurt but he was in good spots and was way too cheap. I like all of our WRs and they all are close in price this week, but it just seems Diontae is getting the more consistent targets. The afternoon slate I had a Ben/Diontae/Juju stack with Higgins run back and Kamara. So the afternoon slate helped with the main slate losses forsure.

  • kdsdawg

    @SteeloCity said...

    I will never play James Conner again. Idc if he is going against a pee wee team.

    this
    EDIT: after reading Tomlin’s quotes might have to give it one more week
    only issue I have is, Big Ben likes to call his own number in the red zone, probably retiring soon, pad the stats kind of guy

    New Orleans thoughts. Peyton already loved calling Hill’s number inside the 10. I suspect him to do it even more without Brees. Not sure about Kamara.

  • mike42

    @superjon said...

    Hines feels like the trappiest of traps.

    Taylor might be okay just based on the price drop.

    Really feels like they go Taylor between the tackles this game a LOT. Even last week with a bottom 2 QB (Foles is the worse) and 25 MPH winds behind a far worse O-line, GB was still giving up yds between the tackles. Anyone know how much ownership Taylor is projected for? Also, any good reason for Indy’s O-line not replicating last years dominance? FA losses or injuries or are the same guys just underperforming?

    I think both INDY and PIT got coaches who want to get their power run games going this week.

  • mike42

    @emnj69 said...

    hard to know which pitt wr is going to be the guy thankfully usually the top 3 are similar in price so I build essentially the same team swapping out just the wr for the next pitt wr

    other option I use which also is nothing genius is just play ben alone and not care where the points come from

    I am not on conner-I have seen the jaqs limit some pretty good rbs this year-they have been burned by guys with a certain skill set like mixon and swift but jones and henry did not explode vs them by any means

    Jax hasn’t quit on Marrone by any stretch. I read on PFF that one of their high draft picks has performed much better Vs the run lately. A. Jones did not have any holes to run through last week.

  • thenefariousone

    https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/20/NFLDK2020_CS_WRCBchartWeek11shh.pdf?addata=2020=WRCB_chtsht_week11shh_xxx

  • Bvgingy

    Thought I’d let everyone know that I just traded Conner in my season long which means he will pop off this week lol. And it looks like another week of throwing money away on hoping JT finally performs well. To the person asking about the Colts run game issues; our o-line hasn’t been as dominant, but they are still playing well. The real issue is JT has shown terrible vision and hasn’t shown the ability to make defenders miss. Reich’s play calling has also not been that great this season.

  • BIF

    @Bnett2210 said...

    Yea I’ve played Diontae every week as well, the weeks he got injured hurt but he was in good spots and was way too cheap. I like all of our WRs and they all are close in price this week, but it just seems Diontae is getting the more consistent targets. The afternoon slate I had a Ben/Diontae/Juju stack with Higgins run back and Kamara. So the afternoon slate helped with the main slate losses forsure.

    Yah Diontae usually doesn’t have to score to hit value where the others have needed a TD because he is seeing more volume (usually).

  • mnstone14

    @BIF said...

    Yah Diontae usually doesn’t have to score to hit value where the others have needed a TD because he is seeing more volume (usually).

    ive been scared off him for a few weeks because theres so many mouths to feed, but I think im finally convinced hes going to get his targets regardless.

  • BIF

    More Browns C19 issues – RT Conklin and K Parkey OUT and something to monitor is Myles Garrett who was sent home feeling sick

  • CheeseCutter

    @thenefariousone said...

    https://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/20/NFLDK2020_CS_WRCBchartWeek11shh.pdf?addata=2020=WRCB_chtsht_week11shh_xxx

    Thank you!

  • BIF

    @mnstone14 said...

    ive been scared off him for a few weeks because theres so many mouths to feed, but I think im finally convinced hes going to get his targets regardless.

    Juju getting more involved and Claypool scores TDs so I think you can spread ownership around in a 50-25-25 or 40-30-30 split amongst the 3.

    Diontae usually gets an extra 1-3 targets/catches so I still lean that way but all 3 are playable

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    Really feels like they go Taylor between the tackles this game a LOT. Even last week with a bottom 2 QB (Foles is the worse) and 25 MPH winds behind a far worse O-line, GB was still giving up yds between the tackles. Anyone know how much ownership Taylor is projected for? Also, any good reason for Indy’s O-line not replicating last years dominance? FA losses or injuries or are the same guys just underperforming?

    I think both INDY and PIT got coaches who want to get their power run games going this week.

    The problem is JT is not a good between the tackles rb. He seems to run into the back of his tackles more than between. At some point they gotta play their best back and it isn’t JT. At least not right now. Maybe he needs some glasses

  • Colin408

    Conner’s certainly not a cash game play but he’s worth a spot in GPP’s. Ownership should come in at the 5-10% range and he’s getting over 4 touches/targets in the redzone each game. Not bad for 6.6k on DK against the Jags

  • kdsdawg

    oh oh

    https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1329154768741289986

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    More Browns C19 issues – RT Conklin and K Parkey OUT and something to monitor is Myles Garrett who was sent home feeling sick

    Not OUT yet, still hope they clear in time.

    I was reading how nobody was going to bet Philly this week and it made me nervous about taking Clev early. Same thing with Den this week. NObody will be on DEN/Philly and strange things tend to happen when everyone is on the same side.

    What do you think about the JETS/LAC game? It’s the one game that I just got on for betting and fantasy today. Jets just cut who supposed to be their number 1 cb on the same week their actual best CB, Poole, went on IR. Jets healthy ar WR and Perine going to be lead back for the first time. Flacco now had a bye to get used to throwing to a fully healthy Crowder, who plays slot in a A. Gase O and is facing a team that traded away the best slot CB in the NFL and I believe his backup went on IR shortly after. The mistaken belief about Flacco is that he’s just bad, when he’s actually streaky. It’s an understandable misconception given his last streak was 7 years ago and netted him a Super Bowl. But he played well on MNF and that means something, I think. He throws a good deep ball too. Ballage is becoming a lead back. Nobody can cover LAC’s WR’s/Hunter on the Jets. LAC’s O-line just got healthy.

    Just a lot of reasons to think that game could fly over the total. LAC pulling ahead and Lynn running the ball a lot is the worst-case scenario but other than that, I think this game has a good chance of landing closer to 60 than 46-.

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