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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    8:25 PM EST : Tennessee ( 3 ) at Jacksonville ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 7 ) at Philadelphia ( -7 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( -1.5 ) at Detroit ( 1.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 7.5 ) at Carolina ( -7.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 6 ) at Atlanta ( -6 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( -1 ) at Chicago ( 1 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 1 ) at Miami ( -1 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : St Louis ( 1 ) at Baltimore ( -1 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( – ) at Houston ( – ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3 ) at San Diego ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 1 ) at Minnesota ( -1 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 10.5 ) at Seattle ( -10.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 2.5 ) at Arizona ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Buffalo ( 7.5 ) at New England ( -7.5 ) —- T: 49

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • Davey224

    Ok, I get what you guys are saying. For industry terminology purposes, player salary/1000 determines the 1x.

    I’m an airline pilot, we have industry standard terminology that sounds like a different language, but once you are trained/understand the terminology, it really isn’t complex.

    I researched a lot on determining player value for roster purposes and most of what I read talked about a points baseline. I look at my roster as if I’m the General Manager. I want to win, so for me to win, my players need to earn their salary. LOL

  • BobGrinder

    @crazydaisy2013 said...

    What backtested equation would you use for relevant prop scores?

    Therein lies the rub right? You have to figure out what prop score you’re comfortable working with.

    This is an article about it.

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/the-value-proposition-108018

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    I use 3.4x value. If I don’t think my team will hit 3.4x (170 points/DraftKings) then I won’t play it in cash.

  • crazydaisy2013

    I like a player with a good match-up and hasn’t hit many bonuses or did a ton of damage in a couple games. That’s why I might be fading Freeman this whole week. He’s hit 4 bonuses and has 6 of 9 TDs in two games.

  • BobGrinder

    @KYwildcat24 said...

    I think you’re both wrong. Maybe? (I could be wrong too lol) but without salary limitations and narrowed down to 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 6 WRs, 4 TEs, 4 DSTs…

    QB (4 qbs to choose from)
    RB (6 rbs to choose from)
    RB (5 rbs…)
    WR (6 wrs…)
    WR (5 wrs…)
    WR (4 wrs…)
    TE (4 tes…)
    FLX (4rbs + 3 wrs + 3 tes)
    DST (4 dsts…)

    4×6×5×6×5×4×4×10×4= 2,304,000 lineup combinations

    It’s 68,800 unique lineup combinations.

    The way you’re doing it allows for every possible iteration of lineup combination, which means duplicate lineups and multiple duplicates in your calculation because you’re making two mistakes.

    Say you only have 3 RBs, named A, B and C. There are only three unique ways to choose two at a time. AB, AC and BC. (n choose r or C(n,r) = C(3,2)=3)

    The way you did it (3*2=6) would allow for AB, AC, BC, BA, CA and CB which is not what we’re looking for.

    I’m not going to go into it here since its so off topic and I’ve already wasted enough space on it but if you really want to know how to calculate this properly PM me and I’ll explain it.

  • DermDerm

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Anybody else want to talk football in this football thread? I’m liking Jordan Matthews a lot this week in GPPs tbh. Last year in games Sanchez played Matthews line averaged 4-67-1.

  • crazydaisy2013

    @DermDerm said...

    Anybody else want to talk football in this football thread? I’m liking Jordan Matthews a lot this week in GPPs tbh. Last year in games Sanchez played Matthews line averaged 4-67-1.

    I do too. I also like the volume Murray will see and is at the same price on DK. The game should be played at a fast pace, which makes me like Murray a bit more if the Eagles take a decent lead.

  • lfn1992

    My idea of “values” for players don’t really correspond to a formula, honestly. Broadly I group players in three categories: “chalk”, “mid-range” and “value”. I try to make different lineups with a few different targets. Been working OK for me. But it is a lot of intuition.

    Example: I had one lineup yesterday that was a Marcus Mariota Delanie Walker stack. Mariota was a “value” player and Walker was a “mid-range” player. I was thrilled with the results, because Mariota’s 18,24 points and Walker’s 20+ point day beat expectations twice. It’s a great start to the weekend.

  • crazydaisy2013

    I might use both in the same lineup when considering all the factors.

  • wafic

    Yeah exactly because in order to withdraw money you need to provide your SSN. Those 300 combinations are not cashing I guess.

  • DermDerm

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @crazydaisy2013 said...

    I might use both in the same lineup when considering all the factors.

    I’d honestly be looking more at a Sanchez/Matthews & Demarco/Eagles D stacks….they correlate the most IMO.

  • crazydaisy2013

    I like Landry a lot also. Mathews burned Dallas from the slot the last time they played and I think Landry could have another big game against them.

  • crazydaisy2013

    @DermDerm said...

    I’d honestly be looking more at a Sanchez/Matthews & Demarco/Eagles D stacks….they correlate the most IMO.

    If I were submitting just one lineup, I wouldn’t do it but I think Mathews could get 10+ targets and Murray 30 touches.

  • Royalflushfella

    @DermDerm said...

    Anybody else want to talk football in this football thread? I’m liking Jordan Matthews a lot this week in GPPs tbh. Last year in games Sanchez played Matthews line averaged 4-67-1.

    I like Matthews as well.
    What are thoughts on Sanchez?
    Ripped from NFL.com, “In 10 games with the Eagles, he has accounted for 15 TDs and 15 turnovers.”

  • lfn1992

    My football-related question: Last week, I put Gronk in as my Flex and I’m thinking of doing it again. It almost got me in the money. I think if I have him as Flex and he gets 20+ points he “makes value” out of the Flex. Do others see it that way?

  • DermDerm

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @Royalflushfella said...

    I like Matthews as well.
    What are thoughts on Sanchez?
    Ripped from NFL.com, “In 10 games with the Eagles, he has accounted for 15 TDs and 15 turnovers.”

    I can’t justify rostering sanchez in cash, but like I said I’ll take a flyer or two on him in some GPPs. I’ve got 25 entries in the remaining 2,000 in the FD survivor so I’m going to be trying to cover all my bases with players I want to target.

  • 1984mbc

    All in on Eiffert having a bounce back game.

  • crazydaisy2013

    @lfn1992 said...

    My football-related question: Last week, I put Gronk in as my Flex and I’m thinking of doing it again. It almost got me in the money. I think if I have him as Flex and he gets 20+ points he “makes value” out of the Flex. Do others see it that way?

    I think you could see the same amount of targets going to other TEs this week at nearly half the cost. I like players who will get a ton of touches or targets in the flex spot.

  • crazydaisy2013

    @Royalflushfella said...

    I like Matthews as well.
    What are thoughts on Sanchez?
    Ripped from NFL.com, “In 10 games with the Eagles, he has accounted for 15 TDs and 15 turnovers.”

    It depends on your roster construction if using Sanchez is usable. If there are guys you need to fit in and can only do so if you use in a min priced QB, I like Osweiler much more.

  • lfn1992

    @crazydaisy2013 said...

    I think you could see the same amount of targets going to other TEs this week at nearly half the cost. I like players who will get a ton of touches or targets in the flex spot.

    I think I figured out my issue with the flex spot this week. My chalk choices for the flex end up invariably being Gronk this week or Devonta Freeman (I have other value guys in some lineups). Basically the “chalk guys” seem so limited that it’s only Freeman or Gronk that I would realistically put in there.

    If you’re computing “value” for TE Gronk will near-certain deliver points (but not necessarily value) each week. In the Flex, it’s different math.

  • MattyK1981

    In my OP I used the incorrect term when I was referring to Walker hitting “3x value” for me after the first half. I too use the (salary/1000 X 3) formula as a sort of baseline for determining who I want to play, and that is largely because I play mostly cash games with a few GPP sprinkled in that I use a slightly different ratio for.

    Funny enough, many of the posts above are agreeing with the use of the term, and substituting prop score for what I was referring to. Somwhere in all of this there is a preferred nomenclature, Big Lebowski joke waiting to come out!

  • Genghis_Khan

    @DermDerm said...

    I’m liking Jordan Matthews a lot this week

    I see your point, but ugh, just watching nearly every Eagles game this year and seeing pass after pass bounce off those stone mitts he calls hands just puts me off him. I can’t take the stress. Especially since it seems like 90% of his points come with 2 minutes left in the game.

  • MattyK1981

    I keep getting lineups in place that have Wilson as QB but naked. For cash purposes I don’t always stack, it just feels like I am leaving something on the table if I don’t.

  • crazydaisy2013

    @lfn1992 said...

    I think I figured out my issue with the flex spot this week. My chalk choices for the flex end up invariably being Gronk this week or Devonta Freeman (I have other value guys in some lineups). Basically the “chalk guys” seem so limited that it’s only Freeman or Gronk that I would realistically put in there.

    If you’re computing “value” for TE Gronk will near-certain deliver points (but not necessarily value) each week. In the Flex, it’s different math.

    With the probable pace of the TB/PHI game, Evans could see 20 targets and is $400 cheaper than Gronk.

  • BobGrinder

    @MattyK1981 said...

    I keep getting lineups in place that have Wilson as QB but naked. For cash purposes I don’t always stack, it just feels like I am leaving something on the table if I don’t.

    Stacking in cash lowers your floor. If the QB has a bad day chances are the receiver will too. You want less risk in cash not more.

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