NFL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, November 24th
    12:30 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at Detroit ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:30 PM EST : Washington ( 7 ) at Dallas ( -7 ) —- T: 48.5
    8:30 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -2.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 2.5 ) —- T: 53.5

    Sunday, November 27th
    1:00 PM EST : Los Angeles ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7.5 ) at Miami ( -7.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Diego ( (Pick) ) at Houston ( (Pick) ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 7 ) at Buffalo ( -7 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -2 ) at Chicago ( 2 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 3.5 ) at Baltimore ( -3.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( -7 ) at Cleveland ( 7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 4 ) at Atlanta ( -4 ) —- T: 50.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 5 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : New England ( -8.5 ) at NY Jets ( 8.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Oakland ( -4 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3.5 ) at Denver ( -3.5 ) —- T: 39.5

    Monday, November 28th
    8:30 PM EST : Green Bay ( 3 ) at Philadelphia ( -3 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • CleverGroom

    Does anybody know if Pat Peterson shadowed Julio during college? They’ve played three times in college, and twice in the pros. Julio’s averaging 6.8-108-0.6 each time their teams play each other (or 23.02 DK points/17.82 FD points, if you prefer). The only game out of those five where Julio had less than 100 yards and/or a score—or less than 22 DK points/16 FD points—was the Arizona game in 2012, which I believe was the game where he twisted his ankle and left early.

    Note also that in all their previous meetings, Peterson’s diabeetus had yet to be diagnosed. He was heavier, slower, and reportedly not as diligent in his film study. This week, Peterson’s been dealing with the flu that’s been going around the Arizona locker room. He was excused from practice on Wednesday with vomiting and was limited on Thursday.

    Basically I was in the shower, thinking about how little I trust the game script in the CAR at OAK game, and wondering wtf we’re all thinking with Amari Cooper projected at over 30% ownership and Julio projected under 10%. And oh, by the way, Julio’s playing at home. Coming off a bye. In man coverage.

    Something is wrong with this picture. Something is very badly wrong.

  • AVivier

    Hoping McCown or Brock goes off. Next week I’ll just light money on fire and save time.

  • CleverGroom

    @ASitar said...

    I find that I’m using a lot of Baldwin, R Matthews, Parker, and S Shepard. You think those guys are too chalky for DK GPP given their recent production? I’m paying up at RB and having to put those guys in at WR2/WR3/Flex paired with Fitzy, Coop, Demaryus mostly.

    Also, I like Forte a lot. He’s a hair cheaper than Rashatd who will be 8% higher owned and I think he’s good for 20-22 touches and 3 catches. Is DeMarco a contrarian play vs a Bears team with a red 2nd next to his name, a team that’s virtually playing out the season and moving in to 2017?

    You can choose Olsen or Graham who ya taking? MG3, Demaryus, or Fitz at Flex?

    Final question: Most expensive WR you’d take given matchup, value, ceiling?

    I don’t care for Rishard Matthews because he shouldn’t have good game script, he’s trendy, his price has been getting juiced up, he probably has to score to hit a good value, and the Bears are secretly geniuses at erasing your WR1.

    Baldwin Parker, and Shepard are all rad. Yes, they’ll be owned, but you don’t need to differentiate everywhere. You could even play all of them together, if you want, just so long as you’ve got a low-owned play or two (Shepard himself might actually help—he’s projecting sub-10%).

    I like Forte too. He’s far and away my favorite back in that $5-7k range on DK. Carlos Hyde isn’t far behind at $4.8k on DK, or the same price on FD. If there’s anything that worries me about Forte, it’s game script and the fact that Mangold is still out. On the other hand, Mangold’s been out for several good Forte games, the Patriots are only getting worse at stopping the run, and Forte’s RZ involvement is huge. There’s even a chance that they jump out to a lead in what’s usually a tight rivalry game: the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by one score, and three out of the last eight have gone to OT.

    DeMarco is a contrarian play, just like two weeks ago. I’m not going to slight him again. The last time I did, he ran for a 75-yard TD on the first play from scrimmage, then threw a TD. He shouldn’t do that again, but he shouldn’t have done it in the first place. I’m done talking shit behind his back.

    Olsen and Graham both make me nervous. I think I prefer Jimmy, but I like Doug more than Jimmy, so they both feel wrong. I think the Panthers are about to walk into a buzzsaw. It’s an unpopular take. I just feel like Oakland has more talent on defense than they’ve been given credit for, and Carolina is extremely vulnerable after losing Kalil, Oher, Addison, and Kuechly. I’m frightened that Greg spends all his time whiffing on blocks against Kalil Mack, Cam gets blown up every other play, Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t do anything because his only tool is being enormous, and Derek Carr lazily devours the Panthers defense with his linemen and backs.

    Definitely MG3 or Fitzy over Demaryius for me. I’m very interested in Larry if Trufant sits. Dude probably has a better shot at 2 TDs in that scenario than any other WR on the board. MG3 is awesome, his matchup is awesome, the line is too low. Do it up.

    The most expensive WR you should buy is Julio. OBJ doesn’t do great on the road and has to share meals with Shepard—plus they’re missing a center and 1-2 guards, and Eli will spike the ball and pout if Danny Shelton gets up in his grill.

  • BIF

    Feels like a Tavon Austin week

  • BIF

    @CleverGroom said...

    This week, Peterson’s been dealing with the flu that’s been going around the Arizona locker room. He was excused from practice on Wednesday with vomiting and was limited on Thursday.

    The Julio after a bye week Flu strain is a very potent one

  • CleverGroom

    @Dadeano860 said...

    You are bringing me to the MG3 side. I just think it’s funny people on here now realize he and Ajayi are good, talented RBs when last year and before Ajayi’s breakout people were claiming they were no-talent, busts. Guess these haters never watched college football or played ncaa dfs.

    My question is Parker for cash? Would you trust him? The targets have been there last 2 weeks. He seems to have jumped Landry since Landry got banged up. I like Parker for cash more than the Shepards and Matthews

    I think it’s fair to question whether guys can transition to the NFL. We’ve seen that story play out the other way before. With MG3 and Ajayi, folks just weren’t giving them credit for the issues they were working through. Ajayi didn’t have an offensive line, and his coaches didn’t trust him. MG3 had line issues too, and microfractures. He’s been great since recovering from the offseason surgery.

    What matters is watching for games like MG3 against Denver, and recognizing when trends reverse. It’s important to stay flexible.

    I like Parker for cash. My only worry is game script, where Gase may decide to pound the rock indefinitely. The thing is that I don’t necessarily believe that’ll work out too well, and I think SF’s offense could actually put some pressure on. Kaepernick has been pretty effective. Hyde is coming back to mid-season form. They should be able to score some points here, and provided that, I’m convinced that Parker’s going to be first in line for targets on ~30 passing attempts. He’s been targeted on about a third of those attempts in the last couple weeks.

    I think Shepard’s legit for cash too, although I tend to think Parker’s upside is higher. If SF really gets in there and challenges MIA, Parker’s the best threat they have to catch up. Shepard’s going to split work with OBJ and Tye, knowing Cleveland’s weakness against TEs.

    Rishard Matthews is, of course, a pass.

  • CleverGroom

    @BIF said...

    The Julio after a bye week Flu strain is a very potent one

    You know I’d be vomiting, fam. Vomiting blood and anxiety.

  • CleverGroom

    @Dadeano860 said...

    McCoy has no competition for reps now. They ride him injured or not. Bills find a way to score and its most likely to be him. Jax is vulnerable on the ground. Big home favorite. Great spot. Supposedly catching passes at practice with the bad thumb too.

    I feel like people are underestimating this Jacksonville defense. They’re solid. They get worn out because people jump out to leads and then run on them all day. Detroit didn’t last week, and you know what they ran for? 14 yards on 21 attempts. Yeah, yeah, the Lions suck at running, but I don’t care. That’d be pathetic even if the Jags were playing a college squad.

    I dunno, man. I kinda like Bills DST to score most of the points in this game. It’s hard for me to trust that Shady and his busted thumb are going to lead this offense to a meaningful day in fantasy.

    P.S. Reggie Bush is real!

  • CleverGroom

    @AVivier said...

    Almost embarrassing to say, but kinda like Brock Osweiller this week.

    That is embarrassing and you should be embarrassed. Just like I was, when I said the same thing against the Lions. I think we gotta let this one go, man.

    Just remember that the most important thing about picking a DFS QB is to not be wrong.

  • BIF

    With NFL games still being 60 minutes and Matt Barkley at QB for the Bears with no check down Zach Miller available, I’m having trouble getting away from playing a bunch of Jordan Howard as barring injury he should be a frequent handler of the ball.

  • AVivier

    @BIF said...

    With NFL games still being 60 minutes and Matt Barkley at QB for the Bears with no check down Zach Miller available, I’m having trouble getting away from playing a bunch of Jordan Howard as barring injury he should be a frequent handler of the ball.

    He’s my most taken RB, so you may want to reconsider.

  • CleverGroom

    @Falconsfan101 said...

    I am going all in on Fitzmagic this weekend. Checks all the boxes. Playing from behind and Pats better against Run than Pass. I’m rolling out Fitz/Marsh/Enuwa Stacks.

    Also, Falcons fan insight of the week…Coleman and Gabriel will score touchdowns this weekend. Arizona will blitz and we will have a similar gameplan as the Broncos game…quick hitters and Coleman running free. Also, I believe Matt Ryan has best QB rating against the blitz if I recall….

    So I am mixing in Matty Ice stacks and Fitzmagic stacks.

    I’m not sure the Jets will be playing from behind, and Fitzmagic’s leash has been pretty short since his…struggles…earlier this year. The Pats lost their best run-stuffer too, and C.J. Spiller had time to learn the offense. I wouldn’t be so quick to assume that this is a pass-heavy spot for the Jets. My expectation is that Marshall gets erased by Bill Belichick’s black magic, but that the run game finds ways to eat and keep Brady off the field as much as possible.

    I’m on record liking Gabriel, and I do wonder about Coleman. I guess my question is whether he actually gets loose and does damage, or if he just serves to loosen up the box, keep the defense honest, and give Matty Ice time to go downfield. It seems to me that we’ve been way too quick to write off Julio against a guy who he’s walked like a dog for his whole career.

  • Joeyrockland1

    @schwinn6 said...

    This right here. For me its MG3, Demarco, Ajayi in cash, trying to figure out who to fade. I really want to fade Ajayi if I can justify it with Demarco or MG3.

    I don’t like Demarco, I think Tenn will be up big and he sits. I think he has a bad toe or foot. Ten needs him for a playoff run.

  • CleverGroom

    @SilverStone18 said...

    Doug Baldwin only has 1 more target than Kearse over the last 4 games and you get a 2000 dollar savings on Kearse. Might be worth some looks

    Lockett’s still the guy I want if I’m taking shots at cheap Seahawk receivers. He’s got higher upside.

    Jimmy’s the only guy who you could even compare to Doug, though. BIF’s right. This is Doug and Russ season.

  • CleverGroom

    @tklonewolf said...

    Here’s my GPP lineup for the FanDuel $5 Spike Single:

    You’re not supposed to post full lineups before they lock, babe.

    Rawls, Rishard, and Eifert would be on my no-fly list. I’ve ranted at length against the first two.

    Eifert hasn’t really come up, and that’s for the best. Baltimore is #1 against TE in DVOA, and that whole offense is hamstrung by the injuries to A.J. and Gio. Where Eifert really shines is in his red zone production, but how often will they get there? I’m not paying up for a guy on the road, in a rivalry game, with the lowest implied total of the week, in the toughest matchup on the board. That’s lunacy.

  • vet0307

    Taking boyd cooks and baldwin for my WRs

  • Hyak420

    @CleverGroom said...

    Does anybody know if Pat Peterson shadowed Julio during college? They’ve played three times in college, and twice in the pros. Julio’s averaging 6.8-108-0.6 each time their teams play each other (or 23.02 DK points/17.82 FD points, if you prefer). The only game out of those five where Julio had less than 100 yards and/or a score—or less than 22 DK points/16 FD points—was the Arizona game in 2012, which I believe was the game where he twisted his ankle and left early.

    Note also that in all their previous meetings, Peterson’s diabeetus had yet to be diagnosed. He was heavier, slower, and reportedly not as diligent in his film study. This week, Peterson’s been dealing with the flu that’s been going around the Arizona locker room. He was excused from practice on Wednesday with vomiting and was limited on Thursday.

    Basically I was in the shower, thinking about how little I trust the game script in the CAR at OAK game, and wondering wtf we’re all thinking with Amari Cooper projected at over 30% ownership and Julio projected under 10%. And oh, by the way, Julio’s playing at home. Coming off a bye. In man coverage.

    Something is wrong with this picture. Something is very badly wrong.

    Dang it Groom, every week I’m deciding to Julio or not to Julio. With the holiday games and a short slate I was just going to roll out a cash lineup and move on to next week…lol. With the honey badger questionable, I might have to throw together some tourney lineups, middle of the field may be where Julio shines this week.

  • jblastman

    35 NFL lineups in, just need one to hit. may do another 5 more later.

  • AVivier

    @CleverGroom said...

    You’re not supposed to post full lineups before they lock, babe.

    Rawls, Rishard, and Eifert would be on my no-fly list. I’ve ranted at length against the first two.

    Eifert hasn’t really come up, and that’s for the best. Baltimore is #1 against TE in DVOA, and that whole offense is hamstrung by the injuries to A.J. and Gio. Where Eifert really shines is in his red zone production, but how often will they get there? I’m not paying up for a guy on the road, in a rivalry game, with the lowest implied total of the week, in the toughest matchup on the board. That’s lunacy.

    Heard a good joke that Dalton is done for the season after tearing his AJL. Did take a few Bal D though.

  • CleverGroom

    Why does Logan Paulsen look like he’d fight me if I spilled his cup of fair trade Ethiopian Nano Challa on his cardigan?

  • branches882

    Groom, unless I missed it earlier, I didn’t hear your thoughts on Gurley this week. about 5/7 GPP lineups with him in. Thoughts?

  • sliceman11

    @branches882 said...

    Groom, unless I missed it earlier, I didn’t hear your thoughts on Gurley this week. about 5/7 GPP lineups with him in. Thoughts?

    I’m clearly not groom, but don’t look now but saints defense is getting better. Not to mention, with the game being in no, a pretty bad o line and, and drew brees airing it out early and often the rams may be forced to abandon the run and put the game in (dare I say ) Goffs hands.

  • budbrew

    @schwinn6 said...

    This right here. For me its MG3, Demarco, Ajayi in cash, trying to figure out who to fade. I really want to fade Ajayi if I can justify it with Demarco or MG3.

    I am playing DJ and have it down to these two (MG3 & Murray). I am leaning to Murray because Chicago D is banged up or suspended and Tenn. should have a lead and run the clock.

  • CleverGroom

    @branches882 said...

    Groom, unless I missed it earlier, I didn’t hear your thoughts on Gurley this week. about 5/7 GPP lineups with him in. Thoughts?

    Todd Gurley averages 3.16 YPC. In the three weeks since Sheldon Rankins has been starting for the Saints, they’ve allowed 3.04 YPC. They’re good against the run. They might even be really good against the run. Tough to say because they’ve mostly played tomato cans lately, but it’s not as though Gurley and the Rams make a change there.

    During that same three-week period, they’ve seen 17 targets to backs, and allowed 11-138-1, or an average of 3.7-46-0.3 per game (8.1 YPT). The vast majority of that was DuJuan Harris, so you’re putting a lot of weight on a single outlier if you cling to this sliver of hope that Gurley redeems himself in the passing game.

    Gurley’s targets since their bye have been 5, 1, 2. He won’t get involved in the passing game unless the Rams are losing. They will be, so okay, that’s something. The trouble is that they’ll be behind because the Saints are actually rounding into a complete team, and Gurley’s headed in there with a QB who’s coming off a 134-0-0 effort on 17/31 attempts.

    I can’t take these Rams seriously. I don’t understand why their implied total is so high. I don’t trust Fisher to take shots even if they are behind. It’d be a tough spot for Gurley even if he had a good team, but with this one…no chance. You’re going to need some positive variance like Gurley breaking loose for a 40+ yard play, or scoring what could be the only Rams offensive TD, just to survive rostering him.

    What really heightens the absurdity is that Gurley is priced over guys like Forte, Hyde, Martin, Jennings, Booker, Howard, and Coleman on DK. People are going to keep swinging at this guy and I’m going to keep fading. Haven’t regretted it yet.

  • jblastman

    Gurley is a no go for me, too many other options at a better price with above average matchups.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).