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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/30
    8:25 PM EST : Washington ( 1 ) at Dallas ( -1 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 12/3
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Atlanta ( -3 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at Baltimore ( -3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 8.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -8.5 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at Tennessee ( -7 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3.5 ) at NY Jets ( 3.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( -1 ) at Miami ( 1 ) —- T: 38
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( (Pick) ) at Green Bay ( (Pick) ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 4 ) at Chicago ( -4 ) —- T: 39.5
    4:05 PM EST : Cleveland ( 13 ) at LA Chargers ( -13 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( -6.5 ) at Arizona ( 6.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Oakland ( -7.5 ) —- T: 42
    4:25 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at New Orleans ( -4 ) —- T: 48
    8:30 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -4 ) at Seattle ( 4 ) —- T: 48

    Monday, 12/4
    8:30 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -6.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 6.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these weekly threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • gamblers4

    Anyone looking at the TE’s for the Mia/Den game?

    Both Traylor and J Thomas look appealing.

  • thatkid500

    DeAndre Hopkins looks pretty good vs TEN.

  • ghost3490

    @zpa1989 said...

    tons of negative chatter about julio, not just here on this thread, but in the chat sunday morning. man was it bad. I couldn’t figure out if people were serious or not. “julio sucks” “can’t pay up for expensive chalk” “julio will be on the sideline holding his leg by the second quarter” all kinds of bullcrap arguments for fading julio. “you’ll regret playing julio by 1:30” LOL. was actually pretty annoying. I doubt any of those people actually faded him entirely.

    Need to call them out and track if it’s a trend with them. Thanks to u for picking up on these idiots

  • SilverStone18

    @mike42 said...

    I think this is a McKinnon game, Minny falls behind and he touches ball more in a good spot on a fast track. Also, Murray sucks and it’s only a matter of time before he posts an 8 for 13 line with a fumble and probably a TD because that’s who he is and we all know it and have forgotten it but we need to remember it because we know it to be true.

    Falcons fan here to tell you that Murray is def still the play here. Minny has one of the best o-lines in the league and they’re just gonna try to lean on us on both fronts.

    Or at least that’s what I would do

  • 33BeRad

    @SilverStone18 said...

    Falcons fan here to tell you that Murray is def still the play here. Minny has one of the best o-lines in the league and they’re just gonna try to lean on us on both fronts.

    Or at least that’s what I would do

    Talib and Crabtree suspended 2 games. Appeals coming?

    Edit: Didn’t mean to quote that. 2nd time I have done that.

  • 33BeRad

    I think Dede is fools gold this week. Lee had the PP treatment last week and Indy just lost Melvin. I’d rather play Lee. So that means Dede will go off!

  • mike42

    @thatkid500 said...

    DeAndre Hopkins looks pretty good vs TEN.

    I was actually thinking the other side with C. Davis vs Hous secondary a week after he got 4 tgts as heavy chalk, guessing he see’s 8-10 tgts again in a great spot. I think Ten does well vs number ones, they must scheme against opponents number one. They have allowed the fewest 2o yd plus passes in the league, they stuffed TY hard 2x, AJ almost bombed as chalk but had one play late save his day while Lafell smashed, just seems like they will put more attention on Hopkins than most. JMTOWIN, the expert I respect the most, talks about how Ten D improves as the year goes on and I think you are seeing signs of just that. Ten D is in play at home vs Savage/Houston off a short week.

  • parrothead112

    Am I wrong for liking Randall Cobb this week?

  • mike42

    Not at all, love that game, think you can make a case for a couple WR’s on each team. If this was a 8 game slate he may even be somewhat popular, think with a 13 game slate ownership will get spread out a lot thinner.

  • Richebee

    Beast Mode???

  • Dunzor

    @parrothead112 said...

    Am I wrong for liking Randall Cobb this week?

    Personally I’ll probably going to D. Adams after what Julio did to that team, and might bring it back with Evans since GB can be carved up by #1 WR as well.

  • Dunzor

    @Richebee said...

    Beast Mode???

    If they get smart and use him like they did this week, I definitely like him again for a cheap price, especially with Oak down Crabtree again

  • gillio

    DeAndre Hopkins agasint the Titans is going to be money this week. Only costs 7300. Entirely too cheap.

  • deactivated204643

    McCown $5500 & Bortles $5400 have my interest for low priced QB. I’m not sure why KC is favored by 3 1/2 on the road. At $4700 Williams may be chalk of the week considering he played on prime time.

  • warren99

    @Dunzor said...

    Personally I’ll probably going to D. Adams after what Julio did to that team, and might bring it back with Evans since GB can be carved up by #1 WR as well.

    Hundley at 5100 on DK appeals too, Adams paired with him is the obvious place to go as they have connected consistently well – against Tampa there’s quite a few GB stacking options including Cobb as they are bad v slot receivers . Williams also in play

    Thinking Hundley could be pretty chalky in cash, like the idea of Hundley, Adams, Cobb or Hundley, Williams and Adams/Cobb in GPP.

    Can always bring it back with Evans too in hope that some of FitzPatrick’s throws in to the ground or 10 yards over his head go astray in to his hands ( just seen that Winston should return to practice tomorrow so Evans may be a really nice play )

  • mike42

    @Dunzor said...

    Personally I’ll probably going to D. Adams after what Julio did to that team, and might bring it back with Evans since GB can be carved up by #1 WR as well.

    Adams/Evans for sure but think TB struggles even more in the slot, correct me if I’m wrong. I think you can do some 4-5 player game stacks in this one. Cobb $3900 would be in it, he’s priced for bad Hundley. Could see D. Jackson busting out in this game too, Williams is too cheap, OJ howard taking over at TE with big play potential and both QB’s in the bargain bin Vs bad secondaries. Really an ideal setup for Hundley, bad secondary and a front seven that doesn’t get pressure. Weathers good, he may even be cash game viable.

    GB/TB jumped out at me as the best stacking game. Outside of the WR 1’s who are not that expensive, the rest of the via candidates are cheap. Not sure if Winston’s status changes much other than how chalky Evans would be.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @zpa1989 said...

    how are the chiefs 3.5 point favorites on the road at the jets? is vegas on crack?

    I see these type of lines of extremely tricky to figure out…and I always end up over handicapping. These are the type of games I stay away from. If we have all watched the Chiefs play the past few weeks. They couldnt beat a high school team right now…BUT the Jets are not that consistent either, at any week the Jets could lose because that is just what the Jets do…when I first saw that line its like hammer the Jets especially with that extra half point..but then I start thinking what does Vegas know that I don’t..there goes the over handicapping. I need to have a strong opinion which I really dont..Sunday night I had a very strong opinion…I really thought the Steelers would cover and the game would go over with the Steelers pretty much covering the over on their own. I was dead wrong about the Steelers spread but at least I had the over to break even.

    We will have to see what happens Sunday with that game…I do know this…Vegas always wins.

  • TopDawgs07

    @mike42 said...

    They give up TD’s, not yards, JMTOWIN has written about every week and the same thing keeps happening, 250 yds 2-3 TDs, WR 1’s mostly disappointing. The ceilings are lower than the average DFS’er anticipates. I had zero Green/Dalton yesterday based on the reality that it’s rare for a QB/WR1 to smash against them. Rivers and Allan’s ownership will be higher this week than it should be based on the perception that Cleveland is a great match-up when in reality it is a decent or solid match-up,

    I totally agree with this take. I live in Ohio, not a fan of Cindy or Clev, but last week I knew enough to play Mixon, avoid Dalton and AJG. I did have a lot of the Cindy Def which let me down. I think they same applies this week, lots of the LA DST, Henry, and potentially MG3.

  • TopDawgs07

    @mike42 said...

    A few times this year I’ve commented on how PIT usually bounces back after a game in which they got embarrassed. I know last night may not fall under that umbrella since they won but I think it does. That D was awful for most of that game and I think PIT D/Bell is a great stack for this game. Cincy limits AB every time but their run D has been trending down all year and Tomlin’s game plan this game is going to be feed the beast on O (Bell) and beat the crap out of them on D. Think Pit D puts up the showing most were hoping for last night vs a crappy QB and an awful O-line. I liked Mixon last week but not this week, the so so Pit run D has bounced back every time after a bad performance, hopefully he’s chalky given how low his price is and recency bias.

    I’ll still have a couple shares of AB because he is playing at the highest level any WR has ever played at but it really is a bad match-up.

    Again, live in Ohio, wife loves Pittsburgh. You’re correct here again too. Cincy plays Pitt hard, especially AB. These games typically are very physical, lower scoring. I like Pitt’s defense in a rebound game too.

  • MattyK1981

    DJax at $4700 vs the GB passing D looks really juicy this week. I doubt he sees 11 targets again like he did last week, but he is averaging 8 targets / game over the past three weeks and 13 fpts / game over that same period of time. The only two things that may limit my enthusiasm are A) any weather considerations for a December game at Lambeau and B) Jameis possibly returning and Evans being more involved. Even considering all that the GB D has been awful defending the pass most of the year, ranking 25th vs WR1 and 23rd vs WR2, so on paper the matchup looks quite promising.

  • jones701

    Just at an early glance i’m very skiddish abut paying up for a WR this week. Keenan is against a surprisingly solid Cle secondary against WR 1, Julio is playing a tough Minny D (maybe shadowed by Rhodes), and Tenn D has been good against WR 1 which has me cautious on Hopkins.

    Might be overthinking, but I cant see paying up for a WR except for Mike Evans of course

  • mike42

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    I see these type of lines of extremely tricky to figure out…and I always end up over handicapping. These are the type of games I stay away from. If we have all watched the Chiefs play the past few weeks. They couldnt beat a high school team right now…BUT the Jets are not that consistent either, at any week the Jets could lose because that is just what the Jets do…when I first saw that line its like hammer the Jets especially with that extra half point..but then I start thinking what does Vegas know that I don’t..there goes the over handicapping. I need to have a strong opinion which I really dont..Sunday night I had a very strong opinion…I really thought the Steelers would cover and the game would go over with the Steelers pretty much covering the over on their own. I was dead wrong about the Steelers spread but at least I had the over to break even.

    We will have to see what happens Sunday with that game…I do know this…Vegas always wins.

    Are you sure you are not overthinking it? I liked BUF last week because I thought that maybe KC is not just not that good of a team, take away the ALEX SMith explosive O which was absolutely an anomaly and you are left with the worst D Reid has ever had. I like the JETS, Car is a really good team and they played them hard, take away 2 Def/special teams scores and they win. I like that BB home game setup off a loss for any team and I don’t think KC is built to really expose Jets major Def weakness, the secondary. Jets can stop the run and if so, I’ll take my chances that a struggling QB continues to struggle and plays at a level that is more consistent with how his entire career has gone rather than some 5 game stretch. On the other side, anyone can light up the KC D, especially on the road. They should able to run or pass, no reason believe KC stops them. I think KC is going to miss the playoffs with SD getting in, if I bet this game, I would take the money line on the Jets. Better QB, better D, better run game and @ home. IDK, no bleeping way I take KC, if vegas set me up for the 100th time in my betting career, so be it, not playing the A. Smith bounce back angle no matter what. Prove it ALEX SMITH and I haven’t liked Andy Reid ever since he went back to work 2 days after his son committed suicide. Stay with your family, your wife and kids need you more than a football team who’s season will always end right after you think they have a chance. This season that just happened to be in October rather than January.

    That’s how I really feel too, I’m going to tell you how I really feel about Winston soon.

  • Messiah717

    @mike42 said...

    Are you sure you are not overthinking it? I liked BUF last week because I thought that maybe KC is not just not that good of a team, take away the ALEX SMith explosive O which was absolutely an anomaly and you are left with the worst D Reid has ever had. I like the JETS, Car is a really good team and they played them hard, take away 2 Def/special teams scores and they win. I like that BB home game setup off a loss for any team and I don’t think KC is built to really expose Jets major Def weakness, the secondary. Jets can stop the run and if so, I’ll take my chances that a struggling QB continues to struggle and plays at a level that is more consistent with how his entire career has gone rather than some 5 game stretch. On the other side, anyone can light up the KC D, especially on the road. They should able to run or pass, no reason believe KC stops them. I think KC is going to miss the playoffs with SD getting in, if I bet this game, I would take the money line on the Jets. Better QB, better D, better run game and @ home. IDK, no bleeping way I take KC, if vegas set me up for the 100th time in my betting career, so be it, not playing the A. Smith bounce back angle no matter what. Prove it ALEX SMITH and I haven’t liked Andy Reid ever since he went back to work 2 days after his son committed suicide. Stay with your family, your wife and kids need you more than a football team who’s season will always end right after you think they have a chance. This season that just happened to be in October rather than January.

    That’s how I really feel too, I’m going to tell you how I really feel about Winston soon.

    I feel the Jets will do what they have done all season and that’s play hard. They’ve only had their door blown off in one game and that was against the Raiders. They have been in every other game pretty much and have just made mistakes leading to bad loses. With the way Kansas City is playing I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jets won this game. I just don’t see KC suddenly fixing all their offensive issues in the snap of a finger.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Are you sure you are not overthinking it? I liked BUF last week because I thought that maybe KC is not just not that good of a team, take away the ALEX SMith explosive O which was absolutely an anomaly and you are left with the worst D Reid has ever had.

    As I said last week, the Chiefs are still a much better D at home and again they held an opponent to 20 or less – in this case just 16 points. I agree overall the Chiefs are a fade as they are nowhere near as good as that Week 1-4 KC team was.

    I hammered the Buf-KC Under 46.5 as my favorite play of the week along with Philly -13.5 a close second.

  • BIF

    @Mike42 thoughts on Wash being a dog at down and out Dallas on Thursday.

    I want to hammer Washington as even if Dallas doubles or triples their recent output, the Skins should still hang 23+ on them to win SU.

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