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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/29
    8:20 PM EST : New Orleans ( -7.5 ) at Dallas ( 7.5 ) —- T: 52.5

    Sunday, 12/2
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 6 ) at Miami ( -6 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( -4.5 ) at NY Giants ( 4.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 0 ) at Cincinatti ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 3.5 ) —- T: 56
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5 ) at Houston ( -5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -10 ) at Detroit ( 10 ) —- T: 54.5
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( -3.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at Atlanta ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( -15.5 ) at Oakland ( 15.5 ) —- T: 55.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at New England ( -6.5 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 10 ) at Seattle ( -10 ) —- T: 46
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -3.5 ) —- T: 52.5

    Monday, 12/3
    8:15 PM EST : Washington ( 6.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • rourke441

    some large totals this week early look i like luck r.wilson chu-chu gotta dig for gold in value picks

  • Supanice

    Cousins at $5,500 what a joke. I finally realized why this year is harder than last year and it’s not because everyone got better or research available, it’s because of qb pricing.

    Having elite QBs underpriced every single week by 2-3k removes so much decision making and skill when the domino effect is to use the savings on 2-3 elite rb then pay up for ertz.

    I know why draftkings is doing it too. It removes skill level and widens the range of people who win and will keep playing.

  • KindGuy

    Finally, bye weeks are over with and we get a nice 13 game slate. Tons of QBs in good spots but Mahomes is the clear cut top option it seems at first glance. You can play him and Hunt, and get all the KC offense.

    Buffalo really surprised me and it hurt since I had a lot of JAX D/ST but I won’t have any hesitations about playing MIA D/ST.

    Gurley bounce back seems inevitable. Rams offense should eat indoors at DET.

    Just so many good spots for offense this week.

  • abachar

    Josh Gordon could be sneaky with Rhodes probably out.

  • parrothead112

    Is Luck too cheap even though it’s the Jags?

  • mike42

    @Supanice said...

    Cousins at $5,500 what a joke. I finally realized why this year is harder than last year and it’s not because everyone got better or research available, it’s because of qb pricing.

    Having elite QBs underpriced every single week by 2-3k removes so much decision making and skill when the domino effect is to use the savings on 2-3 elite rb then pay up for ertz.

    I know why draftkings is doing it too. It removes skill level and widens the range of people who win and will keep playing.

    Never thought of it that way but I’ve commented about how ridiculous the qb pricing is. You explanation makes some sense since you can’t use logic to figure out QB pricing. I would say this, no use thinking about it, use your energy to best take advantage of it.

  • mike42

    @parrothead112 said...

    Is Luck too cheap even though it’s the Jags?

    Read above. All the qb’s are underpriced. I posted last week that it just makes sense to play the 1-3 qb’s every week that can score 30-35 plus and not worry about pricing since it’s so flawed this year. They finally priced up Mahommes this week to the point you have to factor in pricing, but he’s still represents value at that price tag and Reid after a bye week is definitely a “thing.”

    Yes, Luck is underpriced. I accurately predicted Jax would show up Vs pit and implode at the end, that they were in an awful spot last week and would lose and now it’s fair to assume they are on a downward spiral and could give up 3-4 TD’s Vs luck. I think Founette gets suspended too. He came off the bench and threw a punch. I’d guess a suspension is inevitable. Also, Mack may be out which increases the chances of Indy’s TD’s being through the air. I think Indy wins this one easily. I hope so too, I got 10-1 odds they win their division when they were 2-5.

  • QuietStormClay

    Benching Bortles now

  • mike42

    P. Lyndsey going to be an impossible fade

  • JH822547

    I’m not sure about the comments about QB pricing, they just don’t have the variance of the other players. Mayfield and Rivers both had as good of a game as you could hope for but didn’t break 30. The efficiency in scoring TD’s potentially compromised the final points tally.

    Now Cousins is a great play in theory, but we’re basing that on what we know New England can do offensively as much as anything, it must be a challenge to find a pricing model that factors in those intangibles.

  • Supanice

    @mike42 said...

    I think Founette gets suspended too. He came off the bench and threw a punch. I’d guess a suspension is inevitable.

    I certainly hope not! He’s one of my favorite plays this week so far! 30 touches at $7,200 oh baby.

  • keephustlincuz

    @mike42 said...

    P. Lyndsey going to be an impossible fade

    Maybe not just him.As per the conversation about cheap qbs. What about the keenum lindsay and sanders stack against the bengals..

    And now we have chalk ebron week on top of that.

  • Supanice

    @JH822547 said...

    I’m not sure about the comments about QB pricing, they just don’t have the variance of the other players. Mayfield and Rivers both had as good of a game as you could hope for but didn’t break 30. The efficiency in scoring TD’s potentially compromised the final points tally.

    Now Cousins is a great play in theory, but we’re basing that on what we know New England can do offensively as much as anything, it must be a challenge to find a pricing model that factors in those intangibles.

    I’ve had the same reaction as Rhodes on that injury, you hear a pop then freeze in pain till you hit the ground, then it goes really numb after a minute. He’s done for a while.

    That means the Vikings have to choose who to leave single covered every play… Gordon/White/Gronk/Edelman. All of them looked healthy for the first time this year, they had their burst back.

    The best part is the Pats D is so bad they have no way of stopping the Vikings either. Cousins is going to rip the Pats apart, especially if they get Cook more involved in the pass game. That Vegas total seems way way off.

    All those poor people just barely at the cash line at 4:25 are going to get the HAMMER.

  • mike42

    Doyle out for season, Ebron chalk week. Hard to see Jax not locking onto Ebron after 3 TD’s 2 weeks ago. Whomever is the second TE is in play.

  • keephustlincuz

    @mike42 said...

    Doyle out for season, Ebron chalk week. Hard to see Jax not locking onto Ebron after 3 TD’s 2 weeks ago. Whomever is the second TE is in play.

    If any of them are healthy enough to play.

  • mike42

    @Supanice said...

    I’ve had the same reaction as Rhodes on that injury, you hear a pop then freeze in pain till you hit the ground, then it goes really numb after a minute. He’s done for a while.

    That means the Vikings have to choose who to leave single covered every play… Gordon/White/Gronk/Edelman. All of them looked healthy for the first time this year, they had their burst back.

    The best part is the Pats D is so bad they have no way of stopping the Vikings either. Cousins is going to rip the Pats apart, especially if they get Cook more involved in the pass game. That Vegas total seems way way off.

    All those poor people just barely at the cash line at 4:25 are going to get the HAMMER.

    BB is more than capable of making cousins look bad in part because Cousins is exceptional at making Cousins look bad. Also, betting against the Pats D at home late in the season has done nothing but lose you money for a long time now. This years version is exponentially more talented than last years too.

    Cousins playing a good game Vs a severely depleted GB D should not restore your confidence in him. I look Cook more than him in this one.

  • Supanice

    @mike42 said...

    Cousins playing a good game Vs a severely depleted GB D should not restore your confidence in him. I look Cook more than him in this one.

    I’m from Boston so I am biased, but their defense is just glaringly bad. Normally they have a few complete studs who get it together around this time… This year they really don’t.

  • P0key

    Are they putting the Rams in a dome this week!? 4TDs should be guaranteed..Goff and Gurl stack?

  • TopDawgs07

    @mike42 said...

    Read above. All the qb’s are underpriced. I posted last week that it just makes sense to play the 1-3 qb’s every week that can score 30-35 plus and not worry about pricing since it’s so flawed this year. They finally priced up Mahommes this week to the point you have to factor in pricing, but he’s still represents value at that price tag and Reid after a bye week is definitely a “thing.”

    Yes, Luck is underpriced. I accurately predicted Jax would show up Vs pit and implode at the end, that they were in an awful spot last week and would lose and now it’s fair to assume they are on a downward spiral and could give up 3-4 TD’s Vs luck. I think Founette gets suspended too. He came off the bench and threw a punch. I’d guess a suspension is inevitable. Also, Mack may be out which increases the chances of Indy’s TD’s being through the air. I think Indy wins this one easily. I hope so too, I got 10-1 odds they win their division when they were 2-5.

    Doyle is headed to the IR. Chalk Ebron week.

    Edit: I see this mentioned.

  • andy82

    Loving a Den game stack against the lowly Bengals with Lindsey, Manny and Keenum. Would anyone run it back with Mixon? Even though Den will load up to stop the run with Dalton on IR and Green still iffy.

  • 33BeRad

    @andy82 said...

    Loving a Den game stack against the lowly Bengals with Lindsey, Manny and Keenum. Would anyone run it back with Mixon? Even though Den will load up to stop the run with Dalton on IR and Green still iffy.

    I don’t like a full game stack there. Would maybe do Lindsey and Manny. Go somewhere else with QB. Maybe run it back with a sneaky Ross. Robbie A burned Den deep when they didn’t show up at the Jets.

  • footballbutts

    @andy82 said...

    Loving a Den game stack against the lowly Bengals with Lindsey, Manny and Keenum. Would anyone run it back with Mixon? Even though Den will load up to stop the run with Dalton on IR and Green still iffy.

    Last time Denver flew to the EST for a 1PM game they gave up about 300 yards rushing. Cincy isn’t as long of a flight as New Jersey but still, Mixon’s in my GPP pool. The thing is…

    Jets have gotten smashed against the run in back-to-back weeks, Dion Lewis is intriguing, especially how much he’s burned people the last couple weeks.

    Aaron Jones has gotten 4+ targets in 4 straight weeks and 14, 15, 11, and 17 touches. Now he plays the Cards at home.

    Then there’s Gurley, CMC, and Hunt on the road against bad defenses.

  • mike42

    @Supanice said...

    I’m from Boston so I am biased, but their defense is just glaringly bad. Normally they have a few complete studs who get it together around this time… This year they really don’t.

    I’m not a NE fan but last year you guys had the worse front 7 in football talent wise I’ve ever seen make the playoffs. It was a bunch of udfa’s and castoffs. Zero talent and you guys dominated late in the season. I can see this game shooting out but the talent this year on your D is WAY higher than last year.

  • Brian7479

    What am I missing here? MG3 almost surely out this week and Pitt only sitting at a 3.5 point favorite at home?

  • Brian7479

    I know people are going to laugh at this one but I’m gonna play a small amount of Doug Martin at 4200 and cross my fingers. His yards per carry have been really solid for the run defenses he’s been facing and even has 3 catches in 2 of the last 3 games. And of course the Chiefs are vulnerable to RB’s. Obviously no where near a core play but I don’t hate him as a cheap punt

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